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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
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trellheim

there is an article in the telegraph today (cant link it paywall) claiming that it is lord Pannick (gina miller's barrister) who is the brains behind the letwin amendment.
this makes a lot of sense because letwin never struck me as shape enough to come up something as smart as this.

Brains or not it still had to get a majority in the Commons

looksee

Enzokk wrote: »

Because legally the courts see the referendum as advisory, no matter what the politicians say. They could stop Brexit tomorrow and nobody could take them to court to have them implement the result because it was advisory only.

I know, politicians are treating it as binding but legally it isn't, up is down and black is white. That is another reason why Cameron will go down as the worst PM ever, because he made such a hash of the referendum he allowed the chaos of the last 3 years and May and Johnson to be leaders. He owns it all, and the sickening thing is other than very few voices in his own party and UKIP, nobody was even thinking about the EU.

Thank you, that makes sense, in terms of the legality. However there is still the question of why the remain MPs are not challenging the actions of the Government and Leave MPs. They are reacting to events as they unfold, but I don't recall any of them standing up and saying that the whole 'will of the people' argument is nonsense.

If the government had announced that as a result of an opinion poll in the Telegraph they were going to turn the economy of the UK upside down because it was the 'will of the people' I doubt they would have got any traction, but this referendum was much the same thing.

At this stage I do agree that the UK has to go, the situation is toxic, but it would be much better if they could stay. As a (long time away) Brit, I am very sad to see the state they have got themselves into, and I reluctantly can see broadly how they got there.

[Deleted User]

Lewis Goodall thinks the coming weeks events could end up with a general election.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1186202739153494017?s=20

farmchoice

Igotadose wrote: »

Interesting, but so what? The amendment's been approved. Gina Miller's team has played chess versus seagull checkers played by HMG.

ya a post of no great import i just found it interesting, i suppose it highlights the kind of brains working behind the scenes on this on the remain side.
when the history of this come s to be written, this i feel will be the story.
how against all the odds a collection of sharp legal minds, Millar, grieve, Benn, Cherry and some others managed to thwart Brexit. And how on the other side a collection of ideological MP's got so hamstrung by their position they managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.......and of course the DUP

Igotadose

farmchoice wrote: »

ya a post of no great import i just found it interesting, i suppose it highlights the kind of brains working behind the scenes on this on the remain side.
when the history of this come s to be written, this i feel will be the story.
how against all the odds a collection of sharp legal minds, Millar, grieve, Benn, Cherry and some others managed to thwart Brexit. And how on the other side a collection of ideological MP's got so hamstrung by their position they managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.......and of course the DUP

If there'd been some sharp political minds campaigning for Remain, we'd have had this sorted long ago. Once the 2017 GE was done, it was clear to me there was an opportunity for strong Remain leadership to undo the clusterf*ck.

farmchoice

Igotadose wrote: »

If there'd been some sharp political minds campaigning for Remain, we'd have had this sorted long ago. Once the 2017 GE was done, it was clear to me there was an opportunity for strong Remain leadership to undo the clusterf*ck.

i didn't say sharp political minds i said sharp legal minds. there was a complete absence of shape political minds at the front of the opposition, in fact corbyn and the labour leadership were about as far away from sharp on this subject as you could get.
indeed the shape legal minds i mentioned previously were by and large battling both the government and the opposition most of the time.

edit: apologies i slightly mid read your post you didn't suggest i said sharp political minds, i think we are probably in agreement.

Purgative

Just listened to a DUP MP on Pat Kenny. Now I can take or leave Kenny but he seemed really on the ball today.

PK - Surely with a border down the Irish Sea you'd be as well choosing Remain.

DUP - Didn't work so well for Greece and Portugal has really high unemployment.

PK - But we're not Portugal or Greece.

DUP - No we'll see what they come up with.

PK - Go back to the EU? (Incredulous)

DUP - See what they come up with in the UK

FFS more unicorns

devnull

https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1185990368795463680

Tory MP Daniel Kawczynski colluding with foreign government and undermining sovereignty again.

trellheim

DUP - See what they come up with in the UK

Since the EU let them have a little bit of compromise, to the DUP mind it stands to reason a little push will get them what they want.

FrancieBrady

trellheim wrote: »

Since the EU let them have a little bit of compromise, to the DUP mind it stands to reason a little push will get them what they want.

They supported Boris going back for more and ended up worse off.

Will they never learn on a morning the world is moving on without them again on LGBT and Same Sex Marriage rights.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Sorry to hijack the thread but can anyone advise what is the most likely outcome now? Another extension? Referendum? Or just bill passed and Brexit goes ahead on 31st Oct.

trellheim

1. NI first - Abortion and same-sex marriage becomes legal at midnight tonight unless the DUP cave and Sinn Fein agree to form an Exec . Thats your background music

2. Commons : ruling on MV - widely held that Bercow wont let it go
3. Commons - PM introduces legislation to implement WA - it will be amendable and thus open to messing

4. EU - Boris has requested an extension - EU holding fire for the next few days to see how it plays they can extend right up until 31 October.

Expect serious messing over the next fortnight

Letwin_Larry

Purgative wrote: »

Just listened to a DUP MP on Pat Kenny. Now I can take or leave Kenny but he seemed really on the ball today.

PK - Surely with a border down the Irish Sea you'd be as well choosing Remain.

DUP - Didn't work so well for Greece and Portugal has really high unemployment.

PK - But we're not Portugal or Greece.

DUP - No we'll see what they come up with.

PK - Go back to the EU? (Incredulous)

DUP - See what they come up with in the UK

FFS more unicorns

i worked in sales for many years, and was quite good at it if i say so myself.

one thing a good salesperson learns very quickly is, if you wish to close a sale and what salesperson does not i hear you ask, then it's best not to give the customer too much choice.
sounds counter-intuitive, but too much choice confuses people. give them a bit of choice, so they feel they are in control of the decision making process, but allowing the customer an endless array of options will lead to confusion, indecision, exhaustion, frustration and failure.

sound familiar?

ancapailldorcha

devnull wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1185990368795463680

Tory MP Daniel Kawczynski colluding with foreign government and undermining sovereignty again.

That is literally treason but I suppose we can just add it to the pile of Brexit oxymorons:

Embrace free trade by leaving the world's biggest single market
Restore Sovereignty of Parliament by proroguing Parliament
Free the UK from onerous EU regulations by replicating said regulations in the Great Withdrawal bill
Restore the primacy of the UK supreme court and then undermine said court
Reduce immigration by ending freedom of movement despite the fact that most migrants enter via the venerated Australian-style points system from outside the EU
Negotiate great trade deals by decimating national diplomatic leverage
Appoint the "Details guy" who doesn't know how important the Dover-Calais ferry route is to UK-EU trade
Fix the border in Northern Ireland by proposing a backstop that is then rejected
Promise additional funding to the NHS as the result of disaster capitalism designed to destroy the NHS
Maintain the NI-UK union by aligning Belfast towards Dublin and Brussels and further from London
Help farmers and fishermen by advocating WTO trading which means tariffs on their imports and exports
Collude with foreign powers in order to thwart the will of the directly elected Parliament

Zubeneschamali

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Sorry to hijack the thread but can anyone advise what is the most likely outcome now? Another extension? Referendum? Or just bill passed and Brexit goes ahead on 31st Oct.

Extension. Johnson has requested it, the EU are considering it.

There isn't time for the HoC to scrutinize and pass all the associated legislation by Oct 31st - the Government have been hiding the draft legislation for over a year, it is guaranteed to be absolutely horrible when it is published, and will be debated and amended for weeks.

The Euro parliament also needs to approve the deal, and will take a minimum of a few weeks.

Jan 31st is probably reasonable if everyone thinks the deal as proposed is OK, but I strongly doubt that, and an election or new referendum are quite likely before any deal is done.

Strazdas

Purgative wrote: »

Just listened to a DUP MP on Pat Kenny. Now I can take or leave Kenny but he seemed really on the ball today.

PK - Surely with a border down the Irish Sea you'd be as well choosing Remain.

DUP - Didn't work so well for Greece and Portugal has really high unemployment.

PK - But we're not Portugal or Greece.

DUP - No we'll see what they come up with.

PK - Go back to the EU? (Incredulous)

DUP - See what they come up with in the UK

FFS more unicorns

Support for the EU is actually very strong in Portugal and Greece. This guy has obviously been reading Daily Telegraph opinion pieces.

trellheim

As far as I can tell Steve Barclay moved the motion on Saturday

https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2019-10-19/debates/48144FF8-0E08-455A-8175-1EB64918D29E/EuropeanUnion(Withdrawal)Acts

"I beg to move" .

( long read but worth it. )

ThunbergsAreGo

VinLieger wrote: »

So they should have another election bringing the count to 2 since they had the referendum and making it the 3rd election fought with Brexit being a core issue but the idea of holding a 2nd referendum is somehow unreasonable? The level of hypocrisy by anyone pushing this farcical argument is just astounding.

The people voted for brexit by the narrowest of margins and then voted for a parliament unable to implement it again by the narrowest of margins, that's a pretty clear message that the people don't know what they really want and should be asked directly again.

And what if remains wins by the narrowest of margins? Do we go again,?

Water John

A UK Govn't could start then by helping the most deprived areas in the UK.
UK contains some of the most deprived areas in EU. This worsened by Osbourne and Hammond's 10 years of austerity driven by Tories ideology.
A few years was needed post 2008 but to continue to inflict that on people made them angry. That anger was falsly directed at the EU.

Basically tackle the root cause of disenchantment.

NotToScale

Strazdas wrote: »

Support for the EU is actually very strong in Portugal and Greece. This guy has obviously been reading Daily Telegraph opinion pieces.

Also Portugal doesn't have extremely high unemployment. It's at about 6.2% and expected to drop to 5.5% fairly soon and the country has been on a major economic resurgence over the past few years.

I think he out of his depth.

ambro25

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

And what if remains wins by the narrowest of margins? Do we go again,?

Hopefully not as, by then, the British political class would have learned at least a little from this close shave, i.e. don't give another referendum -binding or advisory irrespective- until improved education policies have had a chance to uplift the average Brit IQ by around an order of magnitude.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Extension. Johnson has requested it, the EU are considering it.

There isn't time for the HoC to scrutinize and pass all the associated legislation by Oct 31st - the Government have been hiding the draft legislation for over a year, it is guaranteed to be absolutely horrible when it is published, and will be debated and amended for weeks.

The Euro parliament also needs to approve the deal, and will take a minimum of a few weeks.

Jan 31st is probably reasonable if everyone thinks the deal as proposed is OK, but I strongly doubt that, and an election or new referendum are quite likely before any deal is done.

Thanks! So in short. Nothing has really been resolved. It will probably go into late next year before anything is done?

Water John

Even Kuenssberg doesn't think Bercow will allow a second WA vote today.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak

Joe_ Public

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Thanks! So in short. Nothing has really been resolved. It will probably go into late next year before anything is done?

Quite likely i would think. Like was said, if we cant get to a GE or new referendum soon, it could drag on for ages. Depends on if or when eu pulls the plug, but i suspect they remain too concerned about no deal to take that route anytime soon.

So no quick resolution and just my speculation but if johnson gave up hope of getting his deal through he could just ditch it and put enormous pressure on opposition to facilitate election guarantee this week.

Kermit.de.frog

Westminster is such an archaic place. They need a serious overhaul to bring basic processes in their parliament in to the 21st century.

Joe_ Public

Water John wrote: »

Even Kuenssberg doesn't think Bercow will allow a second WA vote today.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak

Looks very unlikely for sure but will end up feeding into the gov narrative of parliament frustrating the will of the people again so in a way the tories might see it as win-win territory.

Joe_ Public

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Westminster is such an archaic place. They need a serious overhaul to bring basic processes in their parliament in to the 21st century.

On a purely selfish basis i hope they dont as must admit i derive a hell of a lot of fun trying mostly in vain to work out the intricacies of it!

trellheim

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Looks very unlikely for sure but will end up feeding into the gov narrative of parliament frustrating the will of the people again so in a way the tories might see it as win-win territory.

if SM+CU had been tabled by the Tories it would have been done years ago as Labour would have fallen in with it ,
everyone would have moved on, instead faction fighting and political ambition rules the roost

The narrative of parliament frustrating the will of the people is seductive but wrong

trellheim

Off topic but I need a chuckle

BREAKING: MLAs have been turned away from Stormont by security staff as their passes are over 2 and half years out of date.

https://twitter.com/Tim_Mc_Garry/status/1186222410393182208

devnull

Water John wrote: »

Even Kuenssberg doesn't think Bercow will allow a second WA vote today.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak

That's worrying, if Laura Kuenssberg says it's not likely then the chances of it happening have just gone up!