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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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[Deleted User]

This is a good read from Lewis Goodall. There could be unprecedented bedlam in the HoC this week. Watch out for any Customs Union related events, especially with the uncoupled DUP votes floating around in a vacuum.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1185989844281020418?s=20

RobMc59

Deleted User wrote: »

So do you think that the exploitation of cheap foreign labour is a good idea!
Not really an EU thing, more a result of globalisation and the exploitation that it has allowed.

As far as I`m aware,the majority of pickers and farm owners are both happy with the arrangement-the thing that is causing the problem is the uncertainty for the pickers in regard to whether they will be allowed in.

Imreoir2

Shelga wrote: »

I find your optimism that it would be anything other than an enormous economic drain incredibly naive! NI has been in the EU for over 4 decades, they've had peace for over 20 years and the region is still a complete basket case, economically. This surely has to be in large part because of two moronic main parties who are obsessed with tribalism and getting one up on each other, rather than looking out for their citizens in terms of developing infrastructure and making it a favourable place to do business. This isn't going to change any time soon- they can't even govern together. The fact that NI has been without a government for almost 3 years is disgraceful.

I don't think so. Prosperity is not a Green vs Orange issue. Neither side is going out of their way to make NI poorer (except in relation to Brexit of course). The reality is that NI is a peripheral region of the UK and British economic policy has largely abandoned its regions. NI is not the only poor underdeveloped region of the UK. The assembly does not have the economic levers to influence the prosperity of NI and British policy, focused as it is on the South East of England and the City of London does nothing for them. Before Brexit came along both sides were willing to work together in the economic sphere. The island is a single unit when it comes to tourism and that model has been successful. Even the DUP were on board to diverge from British policy and align with the rest of the island on the corporate tax rate in the hope of stimulating inward investment, but Stormont did not have the power to do it themselves and the proposal was ignored by London.

[Deleted User]

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Bricklayers arent really working till 65 anyway so its hardly the best comparison.

Whats your actual solution to people receiving everything back in pension that they paid in tax? What do we use to run the country?

You treat money as a lubricant, rather than a store of wealth that flows to the top.

Capt'n Midnight

prawnsambo wrote: »

You probably didn't intend it, but that quote seemed to imply that the Bulgarians and Romanians were the scrapings of the barrel. It actually meant that there were so few applying that they were getting poorly experienced applicants and very few even of them. And as we all knew, brexit (falling sterling and uncertainty about visas etc.) is the cause.

They were getting the best Romanians

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44230865

"We used to have queues outside our office in Bucharest. Thirty to 40 people would come a day. Now, on a good day, it's a handful. We used to take the crème de la crème. Now, we are scraping the barrel."

...
She says she now considers those that, "have two hands and two legs, and stand a 50% chance of making it".

prawnsambo

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

This from last year explains why the Eastern European's weren't coming then.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44230865

You probably didn't intend it, but that quote seemed to imply that the Bulgarians and Romanians were the scrapings of the barrel. It actually meant that there were so few applying that they were getting poorly experienced applicants and very few even of them. And as we all knew, brexit (falling sterling and uncertainty about visas etc.) is the cause.

NotToScale

Deleted User wrote: »

Nor is working as a bricklayer at 70, using this logic most people will die of physical working. Just because someone is physically able to work, shouldn't mean they must.

Really need to evaluate what life is about as it seems being part of the machine is all that matters to many.

The other issue with that is 65 is generally a 'good average' when you get beyond that the health issues for some start cropping up sooner than others. You've got some people who are living well into their 80s. So, I would suspect if we keep cracking up the retirement age, we're going to end up with a lot of people on disability benefits and being unable to claim / losing their pensions because they became ill in their 60s.

There's a lot of problems being stored up for my generation in a few decades time.

Anyway, it's another topic - but I do think we're all getting a bit ridiculous about this. Something has to give as we're not machines. My own mom for example, didn't make it more than 1 year beyond retirement and was not in great shape in her 60s and while many people are definitely living into their 80s and beyond and are quite fit, active and healthy it's not a universal thing.

The UK risks the same fate as Japan (only without the tech and industrial base behind it) - simmering polite xenophobia / fear of immigration, low birth rates and a rapidly ageing population that is struggling to find carers. At least Japan has robots! I'm not quite sure what the UK plans to do.

The likes of IDS seem to ignore the biological reality of ageing and just see humans as 'production units'.

54and56

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Nor is working as a bricklayer at 70, using this logic most people will die of physical working. Just because someone is physically able to work, shouldn't mean they must.

Really need to evaluate what life is about as it seems being part of the machine is all that matters to many.

People will increasingly have multiple different careers throughout their lives. The original retirement age was brought in because the average lifespan was 2 years older.

If the average lifespan increases to 95 and we retain 65 as the mandatory retirement age that places a huge burden on people to save enough in 45 years of employment to live another 30 years.

If we live to 95 why not work to 85 or 90? What's the point of spending 20 or 30 years sitting around (bar the odd trip here and there) waiting to die. That's my definition of a nightmare.

Why do you think Warren Buffett works every day in his late 80's and his Chairman Charlie Munger does the same aged 92? Because they need the money?

I've no objection to someone wanting to retire at 65 of they want to sit around watching daytime TV for a few decades and they have put away enough cash to fund that but personally I want to stay in the game as long as I can and if that means I end up moving away from my current career into roles more suited to my ability at that age then I'm 100% up for that so long as I'm interacting with people and being productive.

No one expects a 70 year old to work as a bricklayer just as no one expects a 45 year old to work as a professional footballer but if you choose a career which is dependent on physical strength you probably need to accept it's not going to be a lifelong career and you will need to plan what your 2nd career will be eg training bricklayers, working as a sales advisor or delivery driver for a builders providers, retraining for something completely new eg taxi driver or driving instructor etc

murphaph

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Correct, they're highly skilled, but being imported at the expense of training locals.
That is the point I'm making, growth at any cost.

Locals who are capable of such jobs are already doing them. At a certain point you run out of people capable of doing the technical jobs and you either import them from abroad or stop growing. Not everyone is capable of doing these jobs no matter how much you spend on training.

Guy:Incognito

Deleted User wrote: »

Nor is working as a bricklayer at 70, using this logic most people will die of physical working. Just because someone is physically able to work, shouldn't mean they must.

Really need to evaluate what life is about as it seems being part of the machine is all that matters to many.

Bricklayers arent really working till 65 anyway so its hardly the best comparison.

Whats your actual solution to people receiving everything back in pension that they paid in tax? What do we use to run the country?

Igotadose

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Good thread that. But it is hurting my head! Stuff about the CU just sounds mad but seems it could work as a total bill wrecker, maybe even lead to gov voting against their own bill. More madness awaits for sure...

Threadreader link: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1185989844281020418.html

UK needs a written constitution. What madness, the number of corners, dark alleys and potholes their parliament must stumble through to get *anything* done.

Spanish Eyes

Would ROI really welcome a UI?

I doubt it given the polarity of things up North. Does ROI really need to take that on with no realistic benefit?

Well if there is a benefit, tell me now.

Capt'n Midnight

prawnsambo wrote: »

A lot of them are put up on site. Or rent accommodation nearby. The problem for UK workers is that they would have to commute because they have homes in the UK. And they're not prepared to incur the extra cost or leave their families for protracted periods.

This from last year explains why the Eastern European's weren't coming then.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44230865

99% of seasonal workers on British farms come from Eastern Europe. Two-thirds of these come from Romania and Bulgaria.
...
We used to take the crème de la crème. Now, we are scraping the barrel."

Joe_ Public

Enzokk wrote: »

This is an interesting thread of the week ahead and what the UK Government is facing,

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1185989844281020418?s=20

Seems that the second vote on the deal will not be allowed to happen because the government screwed up on Saturday by not bringing it forward for a division and so it was just nodded through. That means it cannot be brought back for a second vote as it is the same deal as before. It is an interesting thread and it seems we could be in for more fun and maneuvers from both sides.

We will have to see how it pans out but it seems like a crucial amendment, if it is brought forward, is one calling for an all UK customs union. Labour and the opposition would support this and the DUP as well. If it is passed then Johnson would have to oppose his own deal or at the very least he will have to face down the ERG who you would think not support that. Also, Johnson would need an extension to ask the EU for the all-UK customs union and I don't see him doing that.

We still have the Queens Speech to get through as well and Johnson could lose that vote. That was supposed to happen tomorrow and Tuesday but who knows what will happen with that.

Good thread that. But it is hurting my head! Stuff about the CU just sounds mad but seems it could work as a total bill wrecker, maybe even lead to gov voting against their own bill. More madness awaits for sure...

[Deleted User]

54and56 wrote: »

Not sure about Brazillians in Tuam but I knowba very large Indian IT support services company here who have very talented people all of whom are earning a multiple of minimum wage!! There's nothing exploitative about their terms of employment!!

Correct, they're highly skilled, but being imported at the expense of training locals.
That is the point I'm making, growth at any cost.

Enzokk

This is an interesting thread of the week ahead and what the UK Government is facing,

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1185989844281020418?s=20

Seems that the second vote on the deal will not be allowed to happen because the government screwed up on Saturday by not bringing it forward for a division and so it was just nodded through. That means it cannot be brought back for a second vote as it is the same deal as before. It is an interesting thread and it seems we could be in for more fun and maneuvers from both sides.

We will have to see how it pans out but it seems like a crucial amendment, if it is brought forward, is one calling for an all UK customs union. Labour and the opposition would support this and the DUP as well. If it is passed then Johnson would have to oppose his own deal or at the very least he will have to face down the ERG who you would think not support that. Also, Johnson would need an extension to ask the EU for the all-UK customs union and I don't see him doing that.

We still have the Queens Speech to get through as well and Johnson could lose that vote. That was supposed to happen tomorrow and Tuesday but who knows what will happen with that.

Fr. Pat Noise

volchitsa wrote: »

I'm not so sure they matter that much any more - the days when loyalist paramilitaries were able to cause disruption like the loyalist strikes in the mid seventies is long gone. Without their state backers, they're no more powerful now than the latest IRA offshoots.

Same for possible terrorist activities: they were only ever able to carry those out thanks to serious help from supporters in the RUC and elsewhere. I don't believe they would have that support now, given how poorly the DUP has played the amazingly strong hand it was given in 2017. All the more so if the UK economy is seen to be suffering from Brexit, and if Scotland is restive.

The loyalists/unionists can be extremely stubborn and violent when there is a very distinct possibility of being a minority in a UI look what happened 100 years ago. They will find a way to get weaponary and explosives to wage a low to mid intensity conflict in the event of UI.

[Deleted User]

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

I dont see what the big issue is the whole time with raising the retirement age.

65 was chosen a long time ago when people werent expecting to live as long as they are going to in the future and when 65 was considered elderly.

if people start living to 100+ in large numbers, you'll have a lot of people spending almost as long receiving a pension as they did paying tax. Thats not sustainable.

Nor is working as a bricklayer at 70, using this logic most people will die of physical working. Just because someone is physically able to work, shouldn't mean they must.

Really need to evaluate what life is about as it seems being part of the machine is all that matters to many.

54and56

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Brazilians in Tuam for starters, Indians in IT support roles and countless other imports to maintain growth.

Not sure about Brazillians in Tuam but I knowba very large Indian IT support services company here who have veryv talented people all of whom are earning a multiplie of minimum wage!! There's nothing exploitative about their terms of employment!!

Capt'n Midnight

Water John wrote: »

IDS was proposing people work until they are 75. That solves the fruit picking problem. Put the grannys at it.

No no, not pensioners, it's prisoners.

https://www.farmersjournal.ie/prisoners-picking-fruit-in-the-uk-a-possibility-473407

prawnsambo

Deleted User wrote: »

how do the current pickers get to the farms, they use a bus (unless their illegals and sleep in barns).
Same with the regional workers, it's just another commute, the same as going to Dublin to spend all day in a shop.

A lot of them are put up on site. Or rent accommodation nearby. The problem for UK workers is that they would have to commute because they have homes in the UK. And they're not prepared to incur the extra cost or leave their families for protracted periods.

Junkyard Tom

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

Varadkar's right about a UI. It will have to be done extremely slowly and carefully as there is so much detail to be worked out with everyone up there.

Unionists won't discuss a UI for fear of being seen as a collaborator. The negotiations would have to come after a pro-UI vote.

Also, I think the implications of rejecting a UI in the south need to be discussed because if people think everything would go back to how it was they're fooling themselves.

Capt'n Midnight

roosterman71 wrote: »

Has the UK got full employment or are the locals too high and mighty to go pick fruit?

All the questions answered by the Mail of all places.

The fall in sterling means the UK has had to up wages.
Concern over passports not helping.
UK workers have no appetite for hard outdoor work especially now that employers need extra hands for the moment because they aren't investing in new technology.

10,000 workers needed. Until the fruit picking machines take over.

Joe_ Public

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

I dont see what the big issue is the whole time with raising the retirement age.

65 was chosen a long time ago when people werent expecting to live as long as they are going to in the future and when 65 was considered elderly.

if people start living to 100+ in large numbers, you'll have a lot of people spending almost as long receiving a pension as they did paying tax. Thats not sustainable.

Fair point. At same time, if you are not creating new employment then you're making it tougher and tougher for young people to get on the job ladder given positions are opening up later and later. Its a bit of a conundrum really.

Guy:Incognito

Water John wrote: »

IDS was proposing people work until they are 75. That solves the fruit picking problem. Put the grannys at it.

Mos it isn't a smart comment. Just black humour to illustrate a point.

I dont see what the big issue is the whole time with raising the retirement age.

65 was chosen a long time ago when people werent expecting to live as long as they are going to in the future and when 65 was considered elderly.

if people start living to 100+ in large numbers, you'll have a lot of people spending almost as long receiving a pension as they did paying tax. Thats not sustainable.

Water John

Not to derail, but the min wage is great for that. Where it fails is where, with foreign work visas, a lot of that wage is clawed back, for services incl housing. Meat processing is a prime example.

it was always the case that TM was blinded by the issue of immigration. It was largely in her own control and was not from EU countries.

Joe_ Public

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Seen a docu on the conditions some of those low paid pickers are living in. Third world would be understating it.

Remember seeing a film doc on the morecambe cockle picking scandal, chinese labourers being paid a couple of quid a day and living in houses with up to 30 other people. Sure it still goes on too.

listermint

Bambi wrote: »

imagine an unscrupulous government flooding a country with cheap labour from outside the EU, it could never happen here

Hold on a minute...

What cheap labour. Where ? There's no 'cheap' labour in this country unless your looking to spread ridiculously stupid xenophobic bile. Which some posters here wouldn't have form in would they.... In countless other threads.

You know the type of people who haven't a blues notion what they are talking about and never spoke to someone that wasn't born in their estate. Those people.

FrancieBrady

Seen a docu on the conditions some of those low paid pickers are living in. Third world would be understating it.

Water John

IDS was proposing people work until they are 75. That solves the fruit picking problem. Put the grannys at it.

Mos it isn't a smart comment. Just black humour to illustrate a point.