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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
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SeaBreezes

Indestructable wrote: »

What will the EU make of the UK coming back looking for an extension without even having the vote on the deal? I think it's a bit absurd tbh, plenty in the EU have reservations about an extension anyway. Will it be seen as more bollocksology by the UK?

I imagine they are expecting it. Time is too short to examine the contract in detail.
They don't have to say yes though, and maybe one of the 27!has been asked to say no by the UK?

Junkyard Tom

Somehow I doubt this will be the Ulster Workers' Council strike 2.0

twitter.com/dempster7

MPFGLB

I live in London and work as a contractor in the public sector
I voted Remain and I have argued for Remain for the last 3 years. Its not just a financial decision although the financial argument to Remain is for me and from several reports including many from this government the more sound in both the short and long term

My view has always been one of being better within the EU for reasons of security, trade,regulations, and as a unit to stand together to aid the development of the region and in defense against the power of China, Russian& USA

I guess I am one of those metropolitan elites that Brexiters and half the BBC journalists are always going on about
Except I am not...I have a large mortgage, very high living costs and dropping income for the last 7 years

Now I am hoping this deal gets through .. so we avoid a no deal

But also I and many colleagues are waiting for this government to invest in public services...which they are not doing as they hold all spending on hold in case its needed to shore up a no deal Brexit
It almost impossible to get any work at the moment ...and I am not the only one

I think the deal may go through as alot of MPs are so sick of it and want to move on

I think its a dreadful deal as it leaves to UK in a worse position than it was ..aligned to EU rules and regulations and not 'free' to make their own rules as the Brexiters wanted and with no bargaining power when the flesh is put on the bones

But having said all that I wont be surprised if it passes becasue of fear of no deal and a continuation of the extension process

Indestructable

Thanks for the responses everyone, as always this thread is a wealth of knowledge. It's a bit messy, but it does make sense.

Enzokk

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Isnt the idea of the letwin amendment that extra time would be needed to frame required legislation so eu almost certainly be on board for it. Its not intended as a vehicle to stop brexit in any way.

True, but extra scrutiny will bear the plans of Johnson in the transition period and if he has promised the ERG no-deal to get their votes he loses the Labour MPs and the Tory rebels. On the other hand if he promises an extension to avoid no-deal he loses the ERG.

kingbhome

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/dempster7/status/1185297459137990656

This sounds worrying.

All jokes aside on that page, some poor Catholics will be getting slayed

history shows us this

Strazdas

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/dempster7/status/1185297459137990656

This sounds worrying.

Civil disobedience doesn't mean violence though : more likely to be street demos, sit ins, blockades etc (if it ever comes to pass).

briany

Stacksofwacks wrote: »

They wanted Brexit, now they are getting it.

I don't think they want Brexit so much as they want to maintain a place in the UK, and see that be undiluted.

It's not as if if the UK had voted to Remain, they'd still be out there campaigning for Leave. Of all the political groups, they would have by far gotten over it the easiest.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Serious discussion only please.

Junkyard Tom

kingbhome wrote: »

All jokes aside on that page, some poor Catholics will be getting slayed history shows us this

Let's hope not.

votecounts

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/dempster7/status/1185297459137990656

This sounds worrying.

If only there was a Police Force to prevent this sort of behaviour, I hope they hit them as hard as they would do if this was a protest by nationalists, even a few arrests of some unionist politicians for inciting hatred wouldn't go a miss.

GM228

Water John wrote: »

They can have the Letwin vote and if he wins, they can still hold a substantive vote on the main issue. However, it would be indicative and not binding.
Johnson may do that if he thought he had the numbers.

From the man himself:-

https://twitter.com/oletwinofficial/status/1185238071735996416?s=19

They obviously see the vote on weather to adopt the amended motion as a resolution as an informal proxy for a meaningful vote.

prawnsambo

Enzokk wrote: »

True, but extra scrutiny will bear the plans of Johnson in the transition period and if he has promised the ERG no-deal to get their votes he loses the Labour MPs and the Tory rebels. On the other hand if he promises an extension to avoid no-deal he loses the ERG.

It's not just the scrutiny. Johnson had everyone up to high doh fearing a hard brexit and as soon as he came back with a deal, their relief would translate into votes for it. Provided he struck while the iron was hot. And he almost made it. Now? I think the momentum will ease off as the days go by and there will be nit-picking and amendments and every thing the opposition can throw at him while he bleeds votes and support, as those unaccustomed to thinking have the finer points explained to them in picture form.

TL:DR: He needed to fool all of the people for some of the time and now he's got to fool them for all of the time. Not sure that will work.

hotmail.com

Issue with Loyalists protesting against the deal as this will contradict their support for Brexit.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/ali_mcconnell/status/1184884717369397249

We all owe a lot to Tony.

Indestructable

Another point, I follow this thread religiously and everyone who does will be well clued in to the going ons in the Brexit world. Maybe 20 percent of the population here and in the UK know what is going on inside out, to the other 80 percent they turn off the news or the radio at the mention of the word Brexit.

Now, the 80 percent were probably delighted to hear the deal was agreed this week and said thank fu*k for that, it's nearly over (the end of the beginning, at least). Tomorrow, with the passing of the Letwin amendment it drags on for probably another 3 months. Generally, people do not want this to happen. They are so so fed up of it all by now.

I'd imagine the vast majority in the UK will not have a Scooby Doo what the Letwin amendment is this evening or how it affects the vote tomorrow.

GM228

Indestructable wrote: »

Another point, I follow this thread religiously and everyone who does will be well clued in to the going ons in the Brexit world. Maybe 20 percent of the population here and in the UK know what is going on inside out, to the other 80 percent they turn off the news or the radio at the mention of the word Brexit.

Now, the 80 percent were probably delighted to hear the deal was agreed this week and said thank fu*k for that, it's nearly over (the end of the beginning, at least). Tomorrow, with the passing of the Letwin amendment it drags on for probably another 3 months. Generally, people do not want this to happen. They are so so fed up of it all by now.

I'd imagine the vast majority in the UK will not have a Scooby Doo what the Letwin amendment is this evening or how it affects the vote tomorrow.

Or perhaps the 80 percent do keep on the news and radio or read the papers and believe the usual rubbish misleading headlines put out there about Brexit that couldn't be further than reality.

Kermit.de.frog

When you think about this deal it has arguably a greater psychological and practical impact on unionism than the Anglo Irish Agreement in my opinion. A customs border down the Irish sea, much more fundamental divergence of regulations and standards between NI/GB.

It's a big moment if the deal passes in terms of the future direction of this island.

As Tony said himself - "we are in extraordinary times".

Joe_ Public

I dont know is letwin tied in in any way to the benn bill. Benn didnt take into account what would happen in event of deal passing which was an omission. Hence letwin. But this wouldnt reqiure 3 months so not clear if that is what they would be seeking.

road_high

Strazdas wrote: »

Civil disobedience doesn't mean violence though : more likely to be street demos, sit ins, blockades etc (if it ever comes to pass).

Like the failed ones in the mid 80s?

Junkyard Tom

votecounts wrote: »

If only there was a Police Force to prevent this sort of behaviour, I hope they hit them as hard as they would do if this was a protest by nationalists, even a few arrests of some unionist politicians for inciting hatred wouldn't go a miss.

Going in hard against people in the north has never worked. Just let any protests fizzle out as they inevitably will. They're not even sure who their protests are aimed at.

GM228

Potential Darwin Tweet of the week?

https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1185205582745296896?s=19

Promoting the UK leaving the SM by pointing out the......em, benefits of staying in the SM for NI.

Joe_ Public

Indestructable wrote: »

Another point, I follow this thread religiously and everyone who does will be well clued in to the going ons in the Brexit world. Maybe 20 percent of the population here and in the UK know what is going on inside out, to the other 80 percent they turn off the news or the radio at the mention of the word Brexit.

Now, the 80 percent were probably delighted to hear the deal was agreed this week and said thank fu*k for that, it's nearly over (the end of the beginning, at least). Tomorrow, with the passing of the Letwin amendment it drags on for probably another 3 months. Generally, people do not want this to happen. They are so so fed up of it all by now.

I'd imagine the vast majority in the UK will not have a Scooby Doo what the Letwin amendment is this evening or how it affects the vote tomorrow.

Wait till we get to next summer when the first yes or no to triggering extension of fta negotiations comes into play and it all starts up again and at regular intervals thereafter for, who knows, 5, 6, 7 years...

Edit: thats assuming theyve actually left in the first place!

McMurphy

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Somehow I doubt this will be the Ulster Workers' Council strike 2.0

twitter.com/dempster7

So the loyalists are remainers now, yeah?

Strazdas

Indestructable wrote: »

Another point, I follow this thread religiously and everyone who does will be well clued in to the going ons in the Brexit world. Maybe 20 percent of the population here and in the UK know what is going on inside out, to the other 80 percent they turn off the news or the radio at the mention of the word Brexit.

Now, the 80 percent were probably delighted to hear the deal was agreed this week and said thank fu*k for that, it's nearly over (the end of the beginning, at least). Tomorrow, with the passing of the Letwin amendment it drags on for probably another 3 months. Generally, people do not want this to happen. They are so so fed up of it all by now.

I'd imagine the vast majority in the UK will not have a Scooby Doo what the Letwin amendment is this evening or how it affects the vote tomorrow.

Most economists think the deal is a terrible one for GB and will impact on them severely. The British public are oblivious to this of course (they seem oblivious to just about everything at this point....their non existent media being a factor).

Kermit.de.frog

Jon Tonge: Boris Johnson's Brexit deal is biggest ever shift to a united Ireland

Tomorrow is potentially one of the most momentous days in unionist political history. A vote in favour of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal will fundamentally reshape Northern Ireland’s place in the UK, in economic terms at least.

The Northern Irish economy will be, in terms of rules at least, as closely aligned to the rest of Ireland and the EU.

A border poll would at some point follow to seek constitutional as well as economic unification. However, a vote against the Prime Minister’s deal may mean that Brexit might never happen — to the relief, ironically, of those who until this week may have been unionist Brexiteers.

Lead story on Belfast Telegraph website tonight

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/jon-tonge-boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-is-biggest-ever-shift-to-a-united-ireland-38609795.html

Joe_ Public

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

So the loyalists are remainers now, yeah?

I think they might actually be though theyd never admit it.

Junkyard Tom

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

So the loyalists are remainers now, yeah?

Yer man Jamie Whatisface has tweeted that remaining is preferable to the current deal.

MPFGLB

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I think they might actually be though theyd never admit it.

I being writing for over 3 years that the only sensible stand point for any NI politician is as a Remainer

The majority of NI voted to remain but also leaving the EU was never an option that did not include some sort of border between NI & Republic or NI and British mainland

Only the most idiotic and reprehensible NI politician would align themselves to a Brexiter government in Westminster

The DUP really are the worst of the worst ...and that is saying something

hotmail.com

From day one, there should have been cross community protests against Brexit in the North.

It's too late for Loyalists to get involved, the deal looks likely to pass. The protests will fizzle out like the Flag fiasco.