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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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Joe_ Public

PokeHerKing wrote: »

So is it up to the NI/UK government to police NI ports to adhere to SM rules, or how will it work?

I imagine it will be very much in UKs interests to ensure NI will not be used as a gateway for illegal goods into SM via Ireland.

FrancieBrady

Listening to Gregory Campbell it sounds like the DUP are holding a gun to the GFA and threatening to shoot if they lose tomorrow.

'Do this and we can legitimately ignore/forget the GFA'.

I suppose they have to find a silver lining in a very dark cloud for them.

PokeHerKing

Water John wrote: »

Yes the UK Govn't is the one checking at Larne. But then the large majority of goods for NI go through Dublin.

So the Irish Market will be dependent on HMG to uphold the integrity of goods that enter it?

Seems contradictory, how can the integrity of the SM be upheld if its borders are being policed by a non EU member government?

Dyr

VinLieger wrote: »

Indeed their history of campaigning against every EU referendum shows their true feelings on the EU.

Much like the DUP tried to do they are simply using this situation for their own benefit, however they are going about it far smarter way by shutting the hell up and letting FG push the agenda for them here and have the DUP stomp all over everything up North, whatever the result SF's hands are completely clean both North and South, its very clever.

Internally SF know that they have to ditch their euroscepticism.

Bear in mind that SF were actually quite pleased with the Anglo Irish Agreement but raised blue murder about it in public because it didn't suit them to admit that it was a step forward

The DUP did the same in the run up to the Saint Andrews agreement and are possibly doing it again with this agreement.

SF were out banging bin lids (where do they even get them?) in border towns the night of this agreement, it made them look silly. They're increasingly being tied up in the inherent contradictions of their own positions. Probably wont damage them in the north much but in the republic its a different matter

GM228

I find it pretty astonishing that no mainstream media is reporting on the case (running for a good 35 minutes now) in Scotland debating if the new WA is lawful in accordance with the Taxation (Cross-Border Trade) Act 2018.

Lord Pentland has indicated that due to the limited timeframe that the court may rule today.

Enzokk

GM228 wrote: »

I find it pretty astonishing that no mainstream media is reporting on the case (running for a good 35 minutes now) in Scotland debating if the new WA is lawful in accordance with the Taxation (Cross-Border Trade) Act 2018.

Lord Pentland has indicated that due to the limited timeframe that the court may rule today.

Is there a link to a live feed? I thought one of the cases was being broadcast live today?

robinph

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Everytime the HoC reject a deal in the hope of getting a better deal, they end up getting a worse deal.

No it hasn't. First they rejected Mays deal, then they rejected Mays exactly the same deal, then they rejected Mays exactly the same deal printed in a different font and then on Saturday they will get to vote on Mays deal again with Johnsons name on it and a backstop that has been renamed as a border down the Irish sea.

Nothing has changed apart from the number of times the same deal has been brought back each time.

Joe_ Public

Conservative whip apparently rang Sam Gwyimah last night to get him to vote for the deal. Shows how desperate they are.

Zubeneschamali

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

But having Stormant vote every 4 years in perpetuity is not a good arrangement.

Ah, but the DUP have to either eat their words or campaign to destroy NIs business and farming communities every 4 years.

They are doomed.

Enzokk

For those people who think just getting this deal done will be the end of it, the next deadline is June next year. There will be only a few months of quiet before a decision will have to be made on whether an extension will be applied for, for the transition period. If no extension and no FTA and it is the cliff edge again of no-deal, or WTO trade. Good time ahead.

GM228

Enzokk wrote: »

Is there a link to a live feed? I thought one of the cases was being broadcast live today?

See here where I mentioned it yesterday, but it's the COA case being streamed today, not the Scottish case which is an urgent case only launched yesterday and being heard currently.

Live link to COA here:-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqipUUjaIgA

LuckyLloyd

Yeah the strength of this arrangement is that the responsibility for the economic / security / political consequences of leaving the arrangement would be squarely borne by the NI politicians voting for it. The DUP have always been able to hide behind other things for regressive politics before.

LuckyLloyd

Enzokk wrote: »

For those people who think just getting this deal done will be the end of it, the next deadline is June next year. There will be only a few months of quiet before a decision will have to be made on whether an extension will be applied for, for the transition period. If no extension and no FTA and it is the cliff edge again of no-deal, or WTO trade. Good time ahead.

But it won’t matter to us in Ireland as we’ll have the “front stop” in place.

CelticRambler

Bobby McDonagh, former Irish ambassador to UK & EU, was just on Sky saying that this deal takes the wind out of the United Ireland sails. Having thought overnight about the proposed four-year rolling referendum, I think that's completely wrong, and the DUP are right to be afraid.

In effect, that same vote could be used by the SoS for NI as a UI barometer. In the more-likely-than-not event that the UK suffers economically in the short to medium term, they'll be looking seriously for opportunities to cut costs, and the biggest on-going cost to the nation is the annual subsidy for NI.

If the population of NI (or at least their elected representatives) have indicated that they prefer to remain aligned with the RoI than GB - because essentially "no hard border" does equal alignment with the very tangible RoI rather than the vague and distant EU - then why would Westminster want to keep the troublesome province?

Over five years, NI will have benefited from a hefty £3.5bn of EU funds [pdf]; that's on top of the annual GB hand-out, and it's going to evaporate next year. With GB farmers and factories also losing their EU funding, there's going to be very little GB tax revenue to spread around - but just across the invisible border, the still EU-funded Irish hills will be genuinely greener when looked upon by the people of the Six Counties.

Rarely do I have any sympathy for the DUP, but on this point, I do believe they've been frog-marched into a "pre-UI referendum" by Johnson, and they would be completely insane not to vote against the bill.

Enzokk

robinph wrote: »

No it hasn't. First they rejected Mays deal, then they rejected Mays exactly the same deal, then they rejected Mays exactly the same deal printed in a different font and then on Saturday they will get to vote on Mays deal again with Johnsons name on it and a backstop that has been renamed as a border down the Irish sea.

Nothing has changed apart from the number of times the same deal has been brought back each time.

Almost right, Johnson has the same deal but with the backstop possibly happening to it definitely happening. There is no negotiations further on trying to keep the border open, alternative arrangements is a busted flush and will probably never be mentioned ever again. What a wast of time.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Ah, but the DUP have to either eat their words or campaign to destroy NIs business and farming communities every 4 years.

They are doomed.

But Raab said this morning that NI has a brilliant deal, they have unfettered access to the EU single market? Why would they possibly give that up? Why would anyone leave such a brilliant deal?

GM228 wrote: »

See here where I mentioned it yesterday, but it's the COA case being streamed today, not the Scottish case which is an urgent case only launched yesterday and being heard currently.

Thank you!

[Deleted User]

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Conservative whip apparently rang Sam Gwyimah last night to get him to vote for the deal. Shows how desperate they are.

Gonna be extraodinarily tight. One of the group Boris needs above all others to get says no........unless.

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1185127048207130625?s=20

Joe_ Public

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Gonna be extraodinarily tight. One of the group Boris needs above all others to get says no........unless.

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1185127048207130625?s=20

I think they have 3 lab votes potentially in the bag but no real hope of dup and very likely 3 Tory rebels minimum will oppose. Very much odds against passing i would think.

Enzokk

I am not sure if this tweet were posted yesterday as the thread was moving very quickly, but to give you an idea why the EU is happy with this deal,

https://twitter.com/MarkUrban01/status/1184966246141513730?s=20

So the objective for Barnier 2 weeks ago was to get the UK to move to a NI only backstop but not convince them that this is what was happening. I am still astonished that the ERG and those Tories that opposed May's deal is thinking of backing Johnson inferior deal now.

I think if this deal passes they win the next election, on the back of Corbyn's luck finally running out and Johnson having the momentum from this "win". Then there is 5 years of consequences of this deal to be felt until the next election, with a new Labour leader and 5 more years of austerity you would think that a Blair like majority will be in the offing for Labour in 2024. But for the sake of those vulnerable families and people who will be hurt these will be 5 long and hard years ahead.

Imreoir2

PokeHerKing wrote: »

So the Irish Market will be dependent on HMG to uphold the integrity of goods that enter it?

Seems contradictory, how can the integrity of the SM be upheld if its borders are being policed by a non EU member government?

Would have to check the detail, but I am sure the UK would be subject to the ECJ for its enforcement of border controls.

FrancieBrady

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Would have to check the detail, but I am sure the UK would be subject to the ECJ for its enforcement of border controls.

Any flagrant abuses would also impact on any trade deal they get. There'd be no incentive to mess with it.

Joe_ Public

Enzokk wrote: »

I am not sure if this tweet were posted yesterday as the thread was moving very quickly, but to give you an idea why the EU is happy with this deal,

https://twitter.com/MarkUrban01/status/1184966246141513730?s=20

So the objective for Barnier 2 weeks ago was to get the UK to move to a NI only backstop but not convince them that this is what was happening. I am still astonished that the ERG and those Tories that opposed May's deal is thinking of backing Johnson inferior deal now.

I think if this deal passes they win the next election, on the back of Corbyn's luck finally running out and Johnson having the momentum from this "win". Then there is 5 years of consequences of this deal to be felt until the next election, with a new Labour leader and 5 more years of austerity you would think that a Blair like majority will be in the offing for Labour in 2024. But for the sake of those vulnerable families and people who will be hurt these will be 5 long and hard years ahead.

Austerity is officially over if you accept tory spin. Theyre now promising to spend as much public money as labour which i take as lies and simply a cynical attempt to steal the opposition thunder. Its line for line from the trump-bannon playbook. Doesnt matter if any of it is true long as gullible voters fall for it.

[Deleted User]

Sammy is on BBC news now from Larne.

Its a No from Sammy.

"We did try to help the prime minister"

Christy Sweets

Enzokk wrote: »

For those people who think just getting this deal done will be the end of it, the next deadline is June next year. There will be only a few months of quiet before a decision will have to be made on whether an extension will be applied for, for the transition period. If no extension and no FTA and it is the cliff edge again of no-deal, or WTO trade. Good time ahead.

Sam Gyimah has been warning last night and today that the prospect of a crash out in January 2021 is why the ERG are willing to support this deal.

If it passes, I presume we'll see another cycle of parliamentary chaos and chicanery in an effort to stop such a crash out, with an extension to the transition period the goal?

Isn't all this just kicking the can down the road?

Could Britain end up with an endless cycle of extensions to the transition period?

And if there was a crash out in January 2021, how does that affect NI?

Is NI completely separated under this deal?

Could Britain crash out but the NI frontstop remain, or are the frontstop arrangements as regards NI cancelled too, ie., hard border?

blanch152

GM228 wrote: »

I find it pretty astonishing that no mainstream media is reporting on the case (running for a good 35 minutes now) in Scotland debating if the new WA is lawful in accordance with the Taxation (Cross-Border Trade) Act 2018.

Lord Pentland has indicated that due to the limited timeframe that the court may rule today.

I don't think that case has a hope in hell.

Government's sign deals that are illegal all the time, that is why most international treaties need implementing legislation - to change the law.

Water John

It may come down to what type of whip Lb imposes. If it, as is hinted do not expel and deselect those that vote with the Govn't, the Deal has a good chance of passing. It is a debate going on in the party today. Sturgeon has been stirring it by saying that by not imposing a full whip, it leaves Lb off the hook. Secretly letting the Deal through.

Zubeneschamali

Christy Sweets wrote: »

Could Britain end up with an endless cycle of extensions to the transition period?

FTA deals normally takes 5-10 years. If the UK puts pressure on negotiators to do it faster, they will have to accept a worse deal.

So they will either extend the transition period for a minimum of 5 years or get reamed in the FTA talks.

Don't forget that the EU have a really professional, experienced team who have been doing trade deals all around the world for decades. The UK have whoever they have managed to rope in during the last 3 years. What professional negotiator would want to work for the UK side after the last 3 years of utter incompetence on the political side?

blanch152

CelticRambler wrote: »

Bobby McDonagh, former Irish ambassador to UK & EU, was just on Sky saying that this deal takes the wind out of the United Ireland sails. Having thought overnight about the proposed four-year rolling referendum, I think that's completely wrong, and the DUP are right to be afraid.

In effect, that same vote could be used by the SoS for NI as a UI barometer. In the more-likely-than-not event that the UK suffers economically in the short to medium term, they'll be looking seriously for opportunities to cut costs, and the biggest on-going cost to the nation is the annual subsidy for NI.

If the population of NI (or at least their elected representatives) have indicated that they prefer to remain aligned with the RoI than GB - because essentially "no hard border" does equal alignment with the very tangible RoI rather than the vague and distant EU - then why would Westminster want to keep the troublesome province?

Over five years, NI will have benefited from a hefty £3.5bn of EU funds [pdf]; that's on top of the annual GB hand-out, and it's going to evaporate next year. With GB farmers and factories also losing their EU funding, there's going to be very little GB tax revenue to spread around - but just across the invisible border, the still EU-funded Irish hills will be genuinely greener when looked upon by the people of the Six Counties.

Rarely do I have any sympathy for the DUP, but on this point, I do believe they've been frog-marched into a "pre-UI referendum" by Johnson, and they would be completely insane not to vote against the bill.

It is impossible to tell at this point how this affects the long-term achievement of a United Ireland.

One interpretation is exactly as you point out and is a good possibility. However, another possibility is that Northern Ireland exploits its unique position of having access both to the UK and to the EU and experiences a glut of FDI, leaving it in the position where changing its constitutional status in any direction carries significant risks to prosperity. On the other hand, do they have the expertise to take advantage of this? If they don't have the forward-looking civil servants and politicians to exploit this position, your scenario becomes the likely one.

The main objective is the maintenance of peace. This deal does a fair job in just about maintaining the balance of peace and that is why we should be happy. How the longer-term plays out is for another day.

Imreoir2

Christy Sweets wrote: »

Sam Gyimah has been warning last night and today that the prospect of a crash out in January 2021 is why the ERG are willing to support this deal.

If it passes, I presume we'll see another cycle of parliamentary chaos and chicanery in an effort to stop such a crash out, with an extension to the transition period the goal?

Isn't all this just kicking the can down the road?

Could Britain end up with an endless cycle of extensions to the transition period?

And if there was a crash out in January 2021, how does that affect NI?

Is NI completely separated under this deal?

Could Britain crash out but the NI frontstop remain, or are the frontstop arrangements as regards NI cancelled too, ie., hard border?

Yes, that is exactly what will happen. It will be a rince and repeat of the A50 process but with less time. First there will be a general election in the UK which may or may not give us a hung parliament, followed by vague speaches about the bright future and wonder deals the new government will deliver, while the clock ticks down to WTO trading terms for GB. The political sphere then goes back into crisis over the new threeway choice between some from of realistic deal with the EU, no-deal WTO terms or extension of the transition period. Add the push for Scotish independance to this political crisis this time around.

At least NI would be safely in the EU economic sphere at that stage. The frontstop arangements are essentially permenant and would persist if the UK opts for no-deal on trade.

Enzokk

Christy Sweets wrote: »

Sam Gyimah has been warning last night and today that the prospect of a crash out in January 2021 is why the ERG are willing to support this deal.

If it passes, I presume we'll see another cycle of parliamentary chaos and chicanery in an effort to stop such a crash out, with an extension to the transition period the goal?

Isn't all this just kicking the can down the road?

Could Britain end up with an endless cycle of extensions to the transition period?

And if there was a crash out in January 2021, how does that affect NI?

Is NI completely separated under this deal?

Could Britain crash out but the NI frontstop remain, or are the frontstop arrangements as regards NI cancelled too, ie., hard border?

I could be wrong but the next crash out will not have the safety nets they have now. There is no EU membership as a landing spot if they leave so the stakes will be even higher if they pass this deal and the next deadlines approaches.

I think the below article puts it well, why are the ERG and right wing of the Tory party so happy with this deal?

Labour pro-dealers: The question is, do you trust Boris Johnson?

What is more likely? Is it 'Classic Dom' -a tactic whereby the government meant all along to sign up to LPFs but held them back until the last moment to clinch the support of the EU27 and Labour rebels? Or is Johnson's last minute switch to a legally non-binding statement a weightless object that, the moment a deal is passed, will just float off into space?

It is not possible to satisfy the demands of both right wing Brexiters and pro-deal Labour MPs on this point. Indeed, there is evidence that 90s-era Eurosceptics aren't happy with Johnson's deal. The old school eurosceptics in the Bruges Group oppose the deal and veteran Eurosceptics like Owen Paterson and Iain Duncan Smith are thought to be restive.

Someone is going to get burned. The question for Labour MPs is whose side will Johnson take once Britain is out of the EU. It's true that Dominic Cummings is no friend to the ERG. But equally, they are Tory MPs while Labour MPs are not. To assume Johnson will side with opposition MPs when push comes to shove would be quite the leap of faith.

LPF - Level Playing Field

The other criteria that Labour MPs has to take into account is if Johnson leaves the EU in 2 weeks time he will be able to tell the Brexit Party potential voters that there is only a short extension and he will not ask for another one and they will be free of the EU. He will romp home in that case and he will not have a problem of getting votes through or having acts imposed on him like the Benn act.

As for the frontstop, that stays whatever happens to the UK. That is a legal treaty and it can only be stopped by Stormont in 2024, and if the UK has crashed out and the predictions are halfway to being right then there is no sane politician in NI that will want to join the UK and the problems they will face.

The UK political system is still broken and this deal does nothing to heal it. Years of lies from the papers need to be felt before they can admit they were wrong and the true healing can begin. I just fear for the damage, unnecessary damage, that people will have to fell and experience before this realization comes to pass.

Zubeneschamali

Imreoir2 wrote: »

The political sphere then goes back into crisis over the new threeway choice between some from of realistic deal with the EU, no-deal WTO terms or extension of the transition period.

No, the FTA talks will barely have started when this choice has to be made, so it'll be extension for talks or WTO exit.

And if they choose an extension, they get the same choice 1 year later and 1 year later and 1 year later...