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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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Enzokk

Kiith wrote: »

So if this deal is legit, it's good for the England, good for Ireland and bad for NI?

And is this not just kicking the border wall issue down the road and ensuring it happens all over again in 4 years time (and then 4 more etc...)?

It seems if it is a NI only deal then it is bad for us and NI and really bad for the UK. Let us not forget that Brexit still is and always has been a bad idea, we are just talking about how bad.:)

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Britain aligns with the north until border-avoidance measures sorted?

If so it is May's deal all over which was rejected 3 times and with possible items removed that would make it more palatable for Labour MPs. Good luck getting that over the line.

FrancieBrady

Hurrache wrote: »

The DUP have no say at this point, not until it comes to the vote in the HoC.

Yes, I know. But are they still 'agin' it...is the question.

J Mysterio

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Tony Connelly has trodden on his phone.

So then was the DUP statement this morning the classic "no no no no - yes" strategy. It's underlined their cultural position but now comes the realpolitik.

Just because the UK and EU have come to an agreement, does not mean DUP will support it. Now all eyes on EU/ UK parliaments for ratification.

VinLieger

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Yes, I know. But are they still 'agin' it...is the question.

And if they are will the ERG as Bridgen claimed support them? This is faaaaaar from over

devnull

lawred2 wrote: »

Boris Johnson has tweeted about the deal so presumably the DUP have been sidelined

If he hasn't got the DUP on side, he's never going to get it over the line.

At least this way he can blame everyone else though....

FrancieBrady

Tommy Gorman: '90 seconds ago, DUP not signed up'

devnull

Juncker tweet on deal
https://twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/1184764705384124416

jm08

Boris presumably is going to try and get the hardliners in ERG onside.

lawred2

devnull wrote: »

If he hasn't got the DUP on side, he's never going to get it over the line.

At least this way he can blame everyone else though....

look - the DUP might end up being the unintentional hero here...

HOC votes this down and we may actually see the end of Brexit

FrancieBrady

devnull wrote: »

If he hasn't got the DUP on side, he's never going to get it over the line.

At least this way he can blame everyone else though....

If he goes ahead without the DUP...it was never about getting the deal past the HoC in the first place.

[Deleted User]

Enzokk wrote: »

It seems if it is a NI only deal then it is bad for us and NI and really bad for the UK. Let us not forget that Brexit still is and always has been a bad idea, we are just talking about how bad.:)

As Colm McCarthy said in the Indo last Sunday, this is the 2nd worst option we are seemingly going for.

Kermit.de.frog

Seems he is trying to bounce the DUP in to supporting the deal.

devnull

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If he goes ahead without the DUP...it was never about getting the deal past the HoC in the first place.

They might also be the villan if it ends with no deal....

LeinsterDub

LBC saying DUP aren't on board. Which would mean the ERG at least in part won't be either

Enzokk

It seems like there will be a Barnier press conference, I assume Sky will cover it. Here is a link for Sky News on Youtube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zg_YUu2JzEA

Zubeneschamali

Kiith wrote: »

So if this deal is legit, it's good for the England, good for Ireland and bad for NI?

No, like all Brexits, it is bad for everyone.

However, as Brexits go, this one is not too bad for Ireland and Northern Ireland, it is what Brexiteers in England apparently want (although it will be very bad for them), and it is really, really bad for the DUP.

On that last point: to be consistent, the DUP are going to have to campaign in NI elections for the return of a hard border in Ireland, since they oppose the Irish Sea border. Every election, they are going to have to alienate pragmatic business and farming voters to satisfy their hardline supporters (...and the UUP are already taking lumps out of them for nearly agreeing an Irish Sea border, so they are apparently not going to try and be the voice of pragmatic unionists.)

All of this will be a big boost for Alliance at the expense of Unionism. And in 20 years, who knows how far England will have diverged from the EU regime in NI. It's a kind of de facto United Ireland.

Joe_ Public

All about getting extension now. Deal can't and won't pass.

[Deleted User]

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Seems he is trying to bounce the DUP in to supporting the deal.

Peter Foster (Telegraph) thinks they are on board.

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1184764123822903296?s=20

VinLieger

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Did we get an explanation to this?
Does the cross community support not mean that both have to vote to exit in order for it to pass? Which would surely be more difficult to get than a simple majority.

The current makeup is 40 Unionists, 39 Nationalists and 11 Others.
Out of the 11 others only PBP would probably vote to exit as they were pro Brexit.
UUP were anti-Brexit (Unionist), so are Alliance (Others) so I can't see how x-community is better for them as surely both groups would need to be in favour for it to pass.

Its because it kind of blurs the lines on the traditional tribal voting in NI.

Now on top of the nationalists/unionist fight theres a new metric that some will ignore the old allegiances for and the DUP know they are in a minority being pro brexit and a hard border. If they stick with this stance in any future election they will not be looked on favourably because people wont want to riskc a majority vote in stormont for a hard border.

However if it sticks with cross community support the old tribal voting style doesn't really change much and they get to still support a hard border with no real repercussions as the nationalists will never support it so it goes back to "us uns" and "dem uns"

LeinsterDub

Deleted User wrote: »

Peter Foster (Telegraph) thinks they are on board.

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1184764123822903296?s=20

https://twitter.com/carldinnen/status/1184766292953325568

We need to get it from the horse's mouth. People saying both

Joe_ Public

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Peter Foster (Telegraph) thinks they are on board.

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1184764123822903296?s=20

I'll eat my hat if that's true to be honest.

Enzokk

Deleted User wrote: »

Peter Foster (Telegraph) thinks they are on board.

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1184764123822903296?s=20

The DUP themselves are denying this, not sources from the EU. It seems to me that the UK has informed the EU that the DUP is onboard and this is what is being reported from Brussels.

https://twitter.com/carldinnen/status/1184766292953325568?s=20

VinLieger

Deleted User wrote: »

Peter Foster (Telegraph) thinks they are on board.

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1184764123822903296?s=20

Sky have just quoted DUP sources saying our statement from this morning still stands.

[Deleted User]

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/carldinnen/status/1184766292953325568

We need to get it from the horse's mouth. People saying both

Yep, David Blevins saying no as well. So Boris throwing DUP under the bus then? Dunno how he gets the HoC arithmetic to work in his favour if he is.

https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/1184766856340660229?s=20

josip

DUP won't be happy that it's the EU saying the DUP are on board.
Even if they are on board, that would be enough to knock them overboard again.

Seth Brundle

The Scots isnae happy...
https://twitter.com/AlexSalmond/status/1184563030996246528

Joe_ Public

Problem with Twitter people just rushing to get even the flimsiest of news out there, desperate to be first. Should have higher standards.

J Mysterio

devnull wrote: »

They might also be the villan if it ends with no deal....

They are the villain anyway. They are really the only party who have had a voice in this process, and that voice has said either 'gimme, gimme, gimme' or 'no, no, no'.

They have become more well known throughout the UK due to Brexit, but that's not necessarily a good thing for them.

joe316

One useful outcome out of this morning's shenagins is that the UK mainland will be seeing first hand, how braindead, awkward and self serving, the knuckle draggers that call themselves the DUP are.

J Mysterio

LeinsterDub wrote: »

LBC saying DUP aren't on board. Which would mean the ERG at least in part won't be either

Brexit Hardman Steve Baker supports it, and he carries enormous weight with these goons. If he's behind it, can only assume he will take the majority of the ERG with him.