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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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ancapailldorcha

murphaph wrote: »

They never thought they'd win. They just did it to be more British or something.

I mean.... Jokes aside what were they actually thinking? They had everything. Free money from Westminster so they never had to face the consequences of spending all of their time spouting ideological nonsense instead of trying to chart a course for Northern Ireland. I'm a Unionist myself but obsessing over nonsense like the Irish language act or whatever isn't leadership. Meanwhile, you have people growing up in NI today wondering why these men with sashes and bowler hats keep ranting about homosexuals and generally being rather unpleasant, to put it politely.

Northern Ireland currently holds the world record for time spent without a government, 1,000 days as I write this (Give or take a day or two, Belgium at 400-odd was the previous record holder). The British taxpayer has spent over £12 million on salaries during this time.

The simple and somewhat snide thing might be to point the finger at the Treaty of Rome and maybe lament the fact that the Europeans couldn't have moved it to Florence, Naples or perhaps, ironically, Pompeii.

Levity aside, I think that the idea of a Brussels-centric project has always irked the DUP somewhat. Farming subsidies and investment into NI meant they could never really get properly on board the Eurosceptic bandwagon until 2016. Perhaps they think that Westminster will just up the subsidies to compensate for anything lost from Brussels. Who knows but it seems unlikely that a party so devoted to such an adversarial and sectarian culture based on flag burning and rubbing a nearly 340-year old victory into the faces of Northern Ireland's nationalists was every going to worry about such materialistic things as who'll be footing the bill for NI.

I think Brexit was a chance for them to make a show of their commitment to the Union. Maybe they expected defeat in which case it would have made for a nice gesture. Now, they've managed to place themselves squarely at the forefront of the British political arena only to show that they're the party most divorced from the traditional British values of fair play, tolerance and respect.

As ever, Brexit continues to reliably produce industrial levels of irony.

CelticRambler

Were I holed up with Cummings, planning a glorious Tory victory in the next GE, the one lesson I would have learnt from the last election was to do everything possible not to be dependent on the DUP. They killed Theresa May's WA v.0.0.1 which sounds like it's coming back from the dead to haunt the HoC all over again. For two years, the DUP has been a millstone 'round the Tory neck, being at the same time a miniscule, largely irrelevant party (from a British point of view) that won't compromise on anything, and a useful excuse on which the ERG and others can pin their objections.

Unless he's removed from office and/or rendered unelectable by scandal, Johnson will be fighting the next election as the leader of a fractured party facing a highly motivated Brexit Party. The last thing he needs is to have to pander to the whims of a bunch of contrary Paddies!

Mr.Nice Guy

L1011 wrote: »

We have evidence that the ERG are self-serving and change what they present in public constantly, though

They'll drop the DUP the second its politically expedient. There is no great love of "the sacred union" or whatever.

We also have evidence of May's third meaningful vote where Johnson and Rees-Mogg voted for the deal despite having suggested to the DUP they wouldn't, yet the likes of Baker, Francois, Cash, Redwood etc. stuck to their previous conviction and did not.

'They'll drop the DUP' comes across like the notion that 'the EU 27 will drop Dublin'. Both examples of wishful thinking.

L1011

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

There's no evidence for this though is there, which is why it reads like wishful thinking. There's been nothing to suggest the ERG will en masse desert the DUP, and there are more than one or two who are aligned with their view of the Union. This is Johnson's problem in the event of a tight vote: their opinions could decide it.

We have evidence that the ERG are self-serving and change what they present in public constantly, though

They'll drop the DUP the second its politically expedient. There is no great love of "the sacred union" or whatever.

Mr.Nice Guy

L1011 wrote: »

Their actual viewpoint is going to be a hell of a lot closer to the Telegraph leader than that. You may find one or two with personal opinions but its not ERG-wide.

The DUP are useful idiots for them. That's it.

There's no evidence for this though is there, which is why it reads like wishful thinking. There's been nothing to suggest the ERG will en masse desert the DUP, and there are more than one or two who are aligned with their view of the Union. This is Johnson's problem in the event of a tight vote: their opinions could decide it.

Tea Shock

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Copying pictures from the Daily Mail so you don't have to:

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/10/11/17/19597832-7563433-image-a-34_1570810305546.jpg

It’s really irritating the way they always think “Northern Ireland” and “Ulster” is the same thing!

lawred2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Copying pictures from the Daily Mail so you don't have to:

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/10/11/17/19597832-7563433-image-a-34_1570810305546.jpg

You'd swear it was military maneuvers they were looking to detail with that graphic.

Akrasia

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Hang on. He still needs to get the deal through the House of Commons where it'll likely be rejected again. In that scenario, he must go to the EU for an extension. Why would Remain MP's support this? Corbyn certainly can't as it means he'll be enabling a Tory Brexit.

Even if he gets it passed by the HOC he still needs an extension because there are lots of bills required to enable the WA to be compatible with UK Law

I think the Tories will need cross party support to get this through because enough of the usual suspects will revert to calling it 'vassal state' and 'surrender' and Brexit in name only' etc etc which will cause a backlash amongst the Brexit voting public that they will begin to fear for their electoral chances, and the opposition will only agree on the condition that the deal is put to the people as a 2nd referendum

An Ciarraioch

Copying pictures from the Daily Mail so you don't have to:

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/10/11/17/19597832-7563433-image-a-34_1570810305546.jpg

murphaph

Strazdas wrote: »

Fair point, but it also illustrates the disastrous error the DUP made campaigning for Brexit. I don't think they thought through for even five minutes what the potential ramifications for the province might be if the UK left the EU. They might have thought that it might somehow consolidate the union and not realising it could have quite the opposite effect and put the union in great danger.

They never thought they'd win. They just did it to be more British or something.

L1011

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

The reason that they share the same constitutional concern about the Union that the DUP do. Here's Steve Baker from a few days ago:

Their actual viewpoint is going to be a hell of a lot closer to the Telegraph leader than that. You may find one or two with personal opinions but its not ERG-wide.

The DUP are useful idiots for them. That's it.

Strazdas

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The problem for Unionism is that it stitches the northern economy further into the rest of Ireland/EU. In the longer term if GB diverges from EU norms, and the north keeps aligned, then the north fully ejecting itself from EU arrangements becomes practically and politically implausible.

Fair point, but it also illustrates the disastrous error the DUP made campaigning for Brexit. I don't think they thought through for even five minutes what the potential ramifications for the province might be if the UK left the EU. They might have thought that it might somehow consolidate the union and not realising it could have quite the opposite effect and put the union in great danger.

Tea Shock

L1011 wrote: »

What reason on earth is there for them to care anything about the DUP? Its cold, hard arse covering alone.

Of course they're not going to say that in public.

Realistically there was no deal they could get passed - but they still needed them for normal votes on multiple occasions when they did constitute a majority.

I agree with your first part. Few if any Tory’s give a rats ass about the DUP and certainly not anyone in the ERG!

The DUP in their own heads have in the past believed (and possibly still believe) that Ireland were going to be thrown under the bus. They certainly would have backed that - or anything close to it!

Mr.Nice Guy

L1011 wrote: »

What reason on earth is there for them to care anything about the DUP? Its cold, hard arse covering alone.

The reason that they share the same constitutional concern about the Union that the DUP do. Here's Steve Baker from a few days ago:

https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1181521798715846657

L1011

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I see no evidence of this. So far the bulk of them have been singing from the DUP's hymn sheet.

What reason on earth is there for them to care anything about the DUP? Its cold, hard arse covering alone.

Of course they're not going to say that in public.

Tea Shock wrote: »

By that logic, the government could never have got a deal passed and they were never relevant

Realistically there was no deal they could get passed - but they still needed them for normal votes on multiple occasions when they did constitute a majority.

Tea Shock

L1011 wrote: »

Its not guesswork

They are not required to support the Government as the Government can't get any votes passed anyway

They will not vote for any deal that is acceptable to the EU

They have become irrelevant.

By that logic, the government could never have got a deal passed and they were never relevant

Mr.Nice Guy

L1011 wrote: »

The ERG are making that claim so they've someone to blame. They couldn't give a toss about them in reality.

I see no evidence of this. So far the bulk of them have been singing from the DUP's hymn sheet.

Leroy42

Is this just both sides trying their best to look like they are trying their best?

Surely the EU have learned that no matter what they discuss with the PM it is almost certainly be to be voted down in the HoC.

You'll get people like IDS saying that the EU caved a they need a no deal to force them to completely give in.

And does anybody really believe that even if a deal does get through that the UK will stick to it an not start to agitate to break it?

L1011

Tea Shock wrote: »

Pure guesswork

Their support or non support still represents a 20 vote swing not counting the other voters they may influence

Its not guesswork

They are not required to support the Government as the Government can't get any votes passed anyway

They will not vote for any deal that is acceptable to the EU

They have become irrelevant.

L1011

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Their opinion matters with the ERG. If the DUP are on board, the ERG likely follow.

The ERG are making that claim so they've someone to blame. They couldn't give a toss about them in reality.

Tea Shock

L1011 wrote: »

I'm not sure how often its been said on the thread already but the DUP stopped mattering weeks ago. They're just noise now.

Pure guesswork

Their support or non support still represents a 20 vote swing not counting the other voters they may influence

Junkyard Tom

MPFGLB wrote: »

The DUP should grab this with both hands

The problem for Unionism is that it stitches the northern economy further into the rest of Ireland/EU. In the longer term if GB diverges from EU norms, and the north keeps aligned, then the north fully ejecting itself from EU arrangements becomes practically and politically implausible.

is_that_so

briany wrote: »

That would assume that every Conservative returned would vote for the deal. This would be an extremely interesting parliamentary episode, and that takes some doing from the last 3 years. Most of the ERG remained opposed to May's deal even when leaders like Mogg flipped. It would no longer be the DUP that Johnson has to worry about, but the ERG headbangers, plus the opposition who I fear would vote down a deal, just on principle, even if it were the perfect one.

The danger with that is he'll be the reasonable one coming back with the deal and they'll be the problem.

briany

Akabusi wrote: »

Doesn't matter if it doesn't get through the HOC now, Johnson is on a winner now, he can go to the country saying he has the deal agreed with the EU just give him his majority and he'll deliver it

That would assume that every Conservative returned would vote for the deal. This would be an extremely interesting parliamentary episode, and that takes some doing from the last 3 years. Most of the ERG remained opposed to May's deal even when leaders like Mogg flipped. It would no longer be the DUP that Johnson has to worry about, but the ERG headbangers, plus the opposition who I fear would vote down a deal, just on principle, even if it were the perfect one.

is_that_so

Akabusi wrote: »

Doesn't matter if it doesn't get through the HOC now, Johnson is on a winner now, he can go to the country saying he has the deal agreed with the EU just give him his majority and he'll deliver it

A deal will see him come out of it well. That anyone is willing to explore a proposal in detail is a conundrum for the HOC.

is_that_so

listermint wrote: »

That's lovely, but that was the point of forcing the extension.

Doh

The purpose of the extension is to make sure there wasn't a No-Deal and that there is time to look at something else, like an alternative deal.

Akabusi

Doesn't matter if it doesn't get through the HOC now, Johnson is on a winner now, he can go to the country saying he has the deal agreed with the EU just give him his majority and he'll deliver it

beggars_bush

The ERG would jettison the DUP in an instant to get a Brexit deal done

bob b

If a "deal" is hammered out over the next few days will it be part of the queen's speach? That is of course amendable so maybe a referendum of May/Johnson bill would be a possibility?

Mr.Nice Guy

L1011 wrote: »

I'm not sure how often its been said on the thread already but the DUP stopped mattering weeks ago. They're just noise now.

edit: bah, left the reply box open for ages and someone has said it already

Their opinion matters with the ERG. If the DUP are on board, the ERG likely follow. Nigel Evans was on Radio 4 earlier today saying as much. If the ERG aren't on board, hard to see where Johnson has the parliamentary arithmetic to get a deal through.

As regards a potential breakthrough, I don't share the optimism. It does Johnson no harm to be seen to be doing all he can to get a deal, as part of a blame game narrative. That may be why the DUP are giving little away: they know it's all optics on Johnson's part.

Here's two smart Brexit commentators with a more sceptical take:

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1182689531797082112

https://twitter.com/FabianZuleeg/status/1182668342118797313

Johnson's done a good job of convincing people that he wants a deal, without actually putting concrete concessions on the table that could be used against him if talks break down.

It would be amusing if the DUP are thrown under a bus but I can't see it happening prior to a general election, since they might be relied upon if another hung parliament is the outcome. On that note, the Nolan Show this morning is worth a listen with plenty of unionists panicking that they've been sold down the river:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0009584