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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

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As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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woohoo!!!

I have every faith that Barclays meeting tomorrow with Barnier will dispel today's slight optimism.

cameramonkey

davedanon wrote: »

The tired old 'little Leo will do as he's told by his masters in Germany and France' trope again?

Do you think Leo would be allowed to agree something with the Brits without it being approved by the EU? That is the reality , its a trope because its true.

davedanon wrote: »

TWhy would Leo be trying to strike a deal with Boris as some sort of junior partner? We are the EU. The EU is us. This patronising nonsense about the 'power relationship' between the big and small EU nations is really annoying. The second a big EU nation bullies a smaller one around, the whole project is as good as dead. Every EU nation has an equal say, and an equal vote. Why can't people get their heads around this?

Do you really believe that smaller countries have the same influence as say a bigger country like Germany or France and that pressure cannot be brought to influence the smaller nations. That is just the way of the world.

davedanon wrote: »

I don't know what was going on today, probably just some political manoeuvring, and the reported movement on the British side, if true, is the only other plausible expanation. Leo did not go over there cap in hand to get fobbed off by some Boris bull****, that's for sure.

We will see but the UK are already rolling back on the briefings that Irish journalist have been given from Leo.

cameramonkey

moon2 wrote: »

This assumes the government are completely naive. Despite the weeks of lies and retractions from the UK you're assuming that our government well and truly believe that this is on the road to be resolved and the UK are on board.

Perhaps a more accurate reading of the events of today would be to assume everyone is aware of the (apparent) lies which spread from Boris and his team, and this is a way to put Ireland/Europe ahead of the next round of "Europe collapsed the talks" finger pointing.

The government are briefing journalist that the UK has conceded on the CU and the SM. The UK are saying no, someone is fibbing.

prawnsambo

woohoo!!! wrote: »

I have every faith that Barclays meeting tomorrow with Barnier will dispel today's slight optimism.

Very slight. As others have pointed out, this could just be Leo getting the retaliation in first. Number 10 then scurrying around with the buckets of cold water. But ball firmly back in their court and they have to wobble out of talks with Barnier and try and blame the EU for that.

prunudo

woohoo!!! wrote: »

I have every faith that Barclays meeting tomorrow with Barnier will dispel today's slight optimism.

As bad as Johnson is, I think Barclay and Raab are half the reason we are in the situation we are.

WomanSkirtFan8

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1182314519416184839

We can always depend on Tony.

Yep. He's always clear and concise

prawnsambo

cameramonkey wrote: »

Do you think Leo would be allowed to agree something with the Brits without it being approved by the EU? That is the reality , its a trope because its true.

Of course it has to be approved by the EuCo. But on the matter of the border, Varadkar's pov would hold a lot of weight. So long as it doesn't impact on the integrity of the SM. Which would also be in our interest.

cameramonkey wrote: »

Do you really believe that smaller countries have the same influence as say a bigger country like Germany or France and that pressure cannot be brought to influence the smaller nations. That is just the way of the world.

That's why alliances are formed. It used to be we'd line up with the UK where our views aligned. These days we tend to work with the Baltic states.

liamtech

cameramonkey wrote: »

The government are briefing journalist that the UK has conceded on the CU and the SM. The UK are saying no, someone is fibbing.

DUP wont accept that

BarryD2

I'd be surprised if Leo has fallen victim to Boris's charms & wiles, you'd think he'd be more canny that that. Beware perfidious Albion etc. He'd want to be careful not to become the Michael Collins of his time, come back with a great deal and be slaughtered by SF and FF.

J Mysterio

briany wrote: »

Given the UK government's track record on general honesty, I'd be concerned that Johnson's just promising things in order to give the impression that things are moving forward and therefore not have to ask for the extension. And that would be highly dangerous.

There seemed to be some misunderstanding over the last few days about something the 'Irish had agreed to'. I hope the UK don't take their apparent misunderstanding as a justification to renege on anything on their side.

Varadkar certainly seemed pretty happy.

McMurphy

liamtech wrote: »

DUP wont accept that

Aren't they irrelevant now?

Hurrache

cameramonkey wrote: »

The government are briefing journalist that the UK has conceded on the CU and the SM.

No, they haven't.

An Ciarraioch

Just caught the tail-end of Pat Leahy on BBC News - appeared to be suggesting NI would be a joint customs area of both the UK and the EU? Would certainly satisfy all parties, but not aware of any international precedent for such an arrangement.

BarryD2

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

Aren't they irrelevant now?

Sort of, but they hold a lot of sway with the Hard Brexiteer wing of the Tories. Will they abandon them?

cameramonkey

Hurrache wrote: »

No, they haven't.

Where is Pat Leahy getting his info?

L1011

liamtech wrote: »

DUP wont accept that

Nobody cares anymore. They became irrelevant the second Boris lost his majority.

BarryD2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Just caught the tail-end of Pat Leahy on BBC News - appeared to be suggesting NI would be a joint customs area of both the UK and the EU? Would certainly satisfy all parties, but not aware of any international precedent for such an arrangement.

How would that be different than NI staying in the customs union and single market? Would it mean being different to Yorkshire or London, isn't that what the DUPers object to?

Hurrache

Laura K must have fallen out of favour, but here's the second best thing
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1182360788998279168?s=19

Rjd2

BarryD2 wrote: »

Sort of, but they hold a lot of sway with the Hard Brexiteer wing of the Tories. Will they abandon them?

A clever thing Boris did was give Priti and Mogg nice juicy positions in Government. Those 2 will keep the hard brexiters in line.

An Ciarraioch

BarryD2 wrote: »

How would that be different than NI staying in the customs union and single market? Would it mean being different to Yorkshire or London, isn't that what the DUPers object to?

I suppose, unlike the backstop, they would still be in sync with the UK, and presumably both the UK and EU would have to concur on how any changes would affect NI.

Infini

liamtech wrote: »

DUP wont accept that

Doesnt matter. They had their chance and they acted petulant and stupid. Under the bus they go. As for everyone else theyre gonna work the problems out if they can but headbangers need to be sidelined in order for this mess to be sorted.

Professor Moriarty

Hurrache wrote: »

Laura K must have fallen out of favour, but here's the second best thing
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1182360788998279168?s=19

What a tangled web we weave.

prawnsambo

Hurrache wrote: »

Laura K must have fallen out of favour, but here's the second best thing
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1182360788998279168?s=19

This bit. Somebody was casting shade on Tony Connelly and Pat Leahy earlier, just read this. Laura K has serious competition.

Kermit.de.frog

The Cove is unconvinced.

https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1182364574495825920

Hurrache

prawnsambo wrote: »

This bit. Somebody was casting shade on Tony Connelly and Pat Leahy earlier, just read this. Laura K has serious competition

He got a lot of criticism in the UK after Johnson became PM due to his sycophancy in both TV and written from. I see he's a little more sceptic about what he's fed in this tweet.

briany

Infini wrote: »

Doesnt matter. They had their chance and they acted petulant and stupid. Under the bus they go. As for everyone else theyre gonna work the problems out if they can but headbangers need to be sidelined in order for this mess to be sorted.

I wouldn't even say the DUP are being thrown under the bus. Getting thrown under the bus implies some sort of wanton harm being done; a callous act. Maybe the DUP's wishes are being thrown under the bus, but that's a bit different.

You wouldn't describe it as throwing a child under the bus by making them eat their vegetables. Yes, they may not want to do it, but it's really quite beneficial. Same thing with the DUP - they can rant and rave, and scream and shout, but hopefully they'll have to eat their spinach anyway. It's what the majority in the North want.

An Ciarraioch

DUP surprisingly quiet thus far - must be as much in the dark as everyone else.

Strazdas

Hurrache wrote: »

Laura K must have fallen out of favour, but here's the second best thing
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1182360788998279168?s=19

He's essentially saying Johnson could genuinely be seeking a deal but it might also be a scam/ con job to get the Tory rebels off his back this weekend and to buy himself some more time.

Only Johnson / Cummings know what the real strategy is.

Robert McGrath

Tell me how wrote: »

Ireland leading the race to be the next country out of the EU.......................that's according to......Andrew Brdigen

https://twitter.com/nealerichmond/status/1182219518837481472

In this instance, it is worth clicking through to listen to the piece where he says it.
Outside from nonsense about Ireland being out in the Atlantic, he talks about how simultaneously, a European army is going to be a big problem for Ireland and that we will have to have a referendum in order to join it and that we are not unknown to vote against the EU. Surely that implies we would not vote to join the army if we have a problem with it Andrew?

I just listened to it on your recommendation.

I think literally every sentence he utters contains a factual inaccuracy - not a difference of opinion, but something that’s demonstrably false. It’s remarkable. It’s almost a piece of art.

PokeHerKing

The only thing that would make Varadkar come out the way he did today imo would be NI staying in the SM/CU.

So Johnson obviously said as much to him but like May before him Johnson doesn't understand NI/ROI, the border or the DUP. So I imagine this will all fall to **** pretty soon.