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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 Technical Discussion Only

Jpmarn

Starting a new thread on what is a tropical Hurricane Lorenzo which is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean south of the Azores. More details can be found in the Hurricane season Thread. I am giving Lorenzo it's own thread because at present models are bringing the Storm towards Ireland. Models at present are keeping out to sea with only minimal impact on Ireland at the moment. The latest model run are bringing the storm a bit closer to the west coast. If the storm in it’s extra tropical state should have a direct hit on Ireland it could generate wind gusts of over 160 Kmh. The storm is due nearest us next Thursday or Friday.

Mod Note:This thread is going to get very busy over the coming days and we would ask posters to adhere to the forum charter. Most importantly keep it civil and friendly. There will be no time for messing and it is imperative that the thread is not dragged off topic.

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sdanseo

RTÉs coverage of this has been truly shocking. Reading their articles and listening to the rhetoric you would think we were going to be flattened like the Bahamas.
I'd expect it from the tabloids and Dublin Lives of the world (who should be censored for the public good) but we are paying for the privilege of being misinformed by RTÉ.

Obviously we can't expect them to get every little weather nuance spot on but distributing some of the facts would wind down the hype over this quite a lot.

I think it's time Met Éireann invested in a Barry Kenny type figure to do interviews, someone who for want of better language can be given all the scientific information and has the charisma required to deliver that in a digestible way to the public. Evelyn is lovely and knows her stuff like the back of her hand but she is NOT comfortable enough being in front of the cameras.

Jpmarn

I am getting a big oak tree felled tomorrow. It is about twice the height of my 2 storey house and it is almost against it. Ophelia knocked a large branch off it 2 years ago. It is now looking like gusts up to 100 kmh in the Limerick area.

Iancar29

Big tree snapped earlier here in D11 , thought it was thunder. Ground is truly saturated and its been more stormy here today than i expect it to be on Thursday.
https://scontent-dub4-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.15752-9/71578789_2498584203707966_3012041774202880000_n.jpg?_nc_cat=101&_nc_oc=AQkfML352GzCcp1RksH6bwrUhQ5tXF9CPMSWbO_c8dBe41opvGIkkUmdK0BWNWb66_gaUn-8yY47Orxjot1Xyo4i&_nc_ht=scontent-dub4-1.xx&oh=e2a05cba4a5dced95a27825daee5d3ed&oe=5E2DD906

My take on the system at present is Orange warning criteria for wind in most western counties. Red warning seems unlikely at present due to the off shore winds where the >130km wind vectors been modelled for plus the fact the storm will be filling by then.

High tide flooding and weakened trees are the concern for this storm IMO.

Dubh Geannain

Nice pun :pac:

Laurali

MJohnston wrote: »

This website I built might be useful for you:
https://weather.thedeskofmatthew.com/

It shows when the model runs are scheduled to occur, how far out they show in each run, and when you click to expand each row, you’ll see links to where you can view each of the models.

Might be slightly out of date as I think the ECM has extra runs now

Thankyou so much!

PukkaStukka

sdanseo wrote: »

RTÉs coverage of this has been truly shocking. Reading their articles and listening to the rhetoric you would think we were going to be flattened like the Bahamas.
I'd expect it from the tabloids and Dublin Lives of the world (who should be censored for the public good) but we are paying for the privilege of being misinformed by RTÉ.

Obviously we can't expect them to get every little weather nuance spot on but distributing some of the facts would wind down the hype over this quite a lot.

I think it's time Met Éireann invested in a Barry Kenny type figure to do interviews, someone who for want of better language can be given all the scientific information and has the charisma required to deliver that in a digestible way to the public. Evelyn is lovely and knows her stuff like the back of her hand but she is NOT comfortable enough being in front of the cameras.

I know both Mr Kenny and Ms Cusack and I can assure you both are equally accomplished at being in front of the camera. They both do their jobs because of the specific skill and expertise they bring. I wouldn't want Barry explaining a hurricane for the same reason I wouldn't want Evelyn telling me why my train is late

Drumpot

Iancar29 wrote: »

Big tree snapped earlier here in D11 , thought it was thunder. Ground is truly saturated and its been more stormy here today than i expect it to be on Thursday.
https://scontent-dub4-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.15752-9/71578789_2498584203707966_3012041774202880000_n.jpg?_nc_cat=101&_nc_oc=AQkfML352GzCcp1RksH6bwrUhQ5tXF9CPMSWbO_c8dBe41opvGIkkUmdK0BWNWb66_gaUn-8yY47Orxjot1Xyo4i&_nc_ht=scontent-dub4-1.xx&oh=e2a05cba4a5dced95a27825daee5d3ed&oe=5E2DD906

My take on the system at present is Orange warning criteria for wind in most western counties. Red warning seems unlikely at present due to the off shore winds where the >130km wind vectors been modelled for plus the fact the storm will be filling by then.

High tide flooding and weakened trees are the concern for this storm IMO.

There are reportedly a few down in Bettystown...

evosteo

Should the worst of this (rain and wind) be past us by Friday afternoon?

munsterlegend

evosteo wrote: »

Should the worst of this (rain and wind) be past us by Friday afternoon?

Yeah it should be gone by Friday noon according to met Éireann but best to keep an eye on forecast as evolving situation.

compsys

sdanseo wrote: »

RTÉs coverage of this has been truly shocking. Reading their articles and listening to the rhetoric you would think we were going to be flattened like the Bahamas.
I'd expect it from the tabloids and Dublin Lives of the world (who should be censored for the public good) but we are paying for the privilege of being misinformed by RTÉ.

Obviously we can't expect them to get every little weather nuance spot on but distributing some of the facts would wind down the hype over this quite a lot.

I think it's time Met Éireann invested in a Barry Kenny type figure to do interviews, someone who for want of better language can be given all the scientific information and has the charisma required to deliver that in a digestible way to the public. Evelyn is lovely and knows her stuff like the back of her hand but she is NOT comfortable enough being in front of the cameras.

I totally agree with you. Some of the MET E forecasters are desperate presenters, stumbling over their words, gulping for air, forgetting their lines and sometimes actually saying the wrong thing.

Personally I couldn't care less if some blonde bimbo was presenting the forecast as long as he or she looked and felt good on camera and delivered the forecast well and was a good media presenter.

Having said that, if I remember correctly, a few years ago RTE tried to bring in outside presenters who were chosen based on their media and presenting experience and there was a backlash from the public.

fred funk }{

There's going to be widespread trees down from this storm. Ground is saturated and trees in full leaf. Wonder do they take that into account when issuing the warning?

redsteveireland

Drumpot wrote: »

There are reportedly a few down in Bettystown...

Look at the size of that tree and where it is planted, that's part of the problem. Most paths are destroyed because of poor choice of trees.

ZX7R

fred funk }{ wrote: »

There's going to be widespread trees down from this storm. Ground is saturated and trees in full leaf. Wonder do they take that into account when issuing the warning?

Yes that would be taking into account,, also timing of the storm making landfall
Ect

cherryghost

fred funk }{ wrote: »

There's going to be widespread trees down from this storm. Ground is saturated and trees in full leaf. Wonder do they take that into account when issuing the warning?

I hope they would, surely. Even if the storm isn't as dangerous as previous storm, the conditions precursing the coming storm is a big enough factor to take into account.

TheRiverman

The Emergency Response Committee is fine if the resources are there to get out when danger passes to clear roads of fallen trees etc.I live in rural West Offaly and the main response here comes from our great local farmers with powerful tractors,diggers,chainsaws etc.When we had the Beast From The East snow last year farmers got out and cleared roads with the front loaders on their tractors and the only gritter we had was Mother Nature when a thaw came quickly.

ZX7R

redsteveireland wrote: »

Look at the size of that tree and where it is planted, that's part of the problem. Most paths are destroyed because of poor choice of trees.

The tree was probably there before the footpath, ,bad planning, drainage and many other factors are more to blame for things than a bit of wind

jimmynokia

Guy on RTE from ME playing it down now..

highdef

cherryghost wrote: »

I hope they would, surely. Even if the storm isn't as dangerous as previous storm, the conditions precursing the coming storm is a big enough factor to take into account.

Even with forecasted lower wind speeds, almost all trees in full leaf combined with fully saturated soils in all parts of the country could potentially result in the Lorenzo storm being more dangerous than Ophelia due to limbs of trees and whole trees coming down in a fairly widespread manner.

With winds not particularly strong today, we've already seen a few examples of significant tree and limb falls in Dublin and Meath. This could be quite widespread overnight Thursday and into Friday and many areas that could be assigned yellow or orange warnings will have people commuting to work and children travelling to school.

The next couple of runs will reveal more, hopefully. I'm beginning to get a bad feeling about this.

Widdershins

Civil defense cleared the fallen trees here after Darwin.

LazerShark

PukkaStukka wrote: »

I know both Mr Kenny and Ms Cusack and I can assure you both are equally accomplished at being in front of the camera. They both do their jobs because of the specific skill and expertise they bring. I wouldn't want Barry explaining a hurricane for the same reason I wouldn't want Evelyn telling me why my train is late

I don't think the original suggestion was that Barry Kenny do the weather but I would watch it. I can see the appeal of his type in this scenario, like the calm voice of the pilot telling you the plane is about to crash.

Evelyn Cusack tends to be very brusque when confronted with even the easiest of follow-up questions from reporters who are trying to get the information in layman's terms. She was especially bad yesterday on Morning Ireland. It is after all her job to forecast the weather, but she seemed annoyed that the interviewer wanted a little more detail. She was however urging calm in the face of the media inclination toward hype.

George Lee was the opposite: completely over the top. The sky is falling type stuff that encourages panic.

Oneiric 3

savj2 wrote: »

I have a question on that.

I thought for bombing the sea waters still need to be warm relatively speaking even if the upper airs are cold fueling the storm in a traditional mid latitude sense.

If you look at a Nor'easter, when it bombs out it's because the warm waters of the gulf stream combine with the freezing air from Canada and that creates the pressure differential to bomb the storm.

Open to correction here.

There are lots of factors of course, but often when you have very warm, unstable air masses moving into a region with colder seas they will become enhanced because more often than not, colder waters chill the air above them. As this colder air moves in to lift & replace the warmer stuff moving in winds will increase and increase the storms momentum for a while.

Wind storms over Ireland, particularly in the Winter months, have become less severe broadly speaking since the Atlantic has warmed, because there is less cold air over the N Atlantic to interact with tropical air masses.

And for what it is worth, here are the SST anomalies for September 1961, the month in which Debby struck, the strongest most destructive Autumn storm that occurred within most lifetimes on here (though it was before my time). Anomalies were generally close to or below average around Ireland and the nearby Atlantic.

Oscar Bravo

Weather forecast on Rte1 now

highdef

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Weather forecast on Rte1 now

I think they're waiting until after the 6 news to discuss it further in any detail.

redsteveireland

ZX7R wrote: »

The tree was probably there before the footpath, ,bad planning, drainage and many other factors are more to blame for things than a bit of wind

I would disagree about the tree being there first, I have seen alot of this in my own village in Kildare from trees planted in housing estates in the early 80's

Gaoth Laidir

Latest NHC Discussion: 65 knots at 53.5 N but about 400 km west of Ireland.

1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

Lorenzo remains a well organized hurricane this morning as it heads
toward the Azores. The eye has made a reappearance in infrared
satellite imagery, and the cloud tops associated with the
surrounding ring of convection have cooled. The advisory intensity
remains 85 kt, which is the consensus of the latest objective
and subjective satellite intensity estimates that range from 77 to
90 kt. Lorenzo is expected to maintain its intensity today, but it
will be moving over progressively colder waters and into an area of
increasing shear, which should cause gradual weakening by
Wednesday. The global models show the hurricane merging with a
frontal zone, and becoming extratropical in about 36 hours. The
extratropical low should weaken in a couple of days while it moves
near Ireland and Great Britain, and then it is forecast to dissipate
over Europe by 96 hours.

Lorenzo is moving northeastward at 22 kt. The hurricane should
continue to accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough
over the central Atlantic during the next day or two. After that
time, the cyclone is predicted to decelerate and turn
east-northeastward or eastward within the low-level westerly flow.
The global model guidance is in excellent agreement through the
first 36-48 hours, and has also come into somewhat better agreement
on the eastward turn later in the period. The updated NHC track has
been adjusted southeastward at 72 hours, but still lies north of the
multi-model consensus. An additional southward and eastward
adjustment of the post-tropical cyclone's track near Ireland
and the United Kingdom may be necessary in future advisories.

Lorenzo is producing huge seas over the north Atlantic. Full
information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean
Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.
The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued
by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/

Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force
winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions
will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings
are in effect for the Azores.

2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, and portions the coast of Europe. These swells
will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 35.2N 37.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 38.0N 34.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 42.8N 28.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 48.5N 21.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 03/1200Z 53.5N 16.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1200Z 56.0N 7.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Oscar Bravo

highdef wrote: »

I think they're waiting until after the 6 news to discuss it further in any detail.

Very much so. Pressure!

Oneiric 3

sdanseo wrote: »

RTÉs coverage of this has been truly shocking. Reading their articles and listening to the rhetoric you would think we were going to be flattened like the Bahamas.
I'd expect it from the tabloids and Dublin Lives of the world (who should be censored for the public good) but we are paying for the privilege of being misinformed by RTÉ.

Obviously we can't expect them to get every little weather nuance spot on but distributing some of the facts would wind down the hype over this quite a lot.

I think it's time Met Éireann invested in a Barry Kenny type figure to do interviews, someone who for want of better language can be given all the scientific information and has the charisma required to deliver that in a digestible way to the public. Evelyn is lovely and knows her stuff like the back of her hand but she is NOT comfortable enough being in front of the cameras.

The mistake people often make about journalists, no matter what media outlet they are working for, is that they actually know what they are talking about... they don't. They exist solely to sell a juicy story in order to increase viewership. There is a reason why journalism as a career attracts people who are more inclined towards psychopathy.

munsterlegend

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Latest NHC Discussion: 65 knots at 53.5 N but about 400 km west of Ireland.

Seems they expect an eastward and southwards change in track along with the global models?

froog

Oneiric 3 wrote:

The mistake people often make about journalists, no matter what media outlet they are working for, is that they actually know what they are talking about... they don't. They exist solely to sell a juicy story in order to increase viewership. There is a reason why journalism as a career attracts people who are more inclined towards psychopathy.

you're mixing up journalists with tv presenters there

Widdershins

Politicians.