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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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bilston

Custom checks are custom checks, it doesn't matter if they are on the border or 10 miles from the border, it's a border. And what about people who live inside the zones between the checkpoints and the actual border?

It's completely unworkable.

This is just the UK govt trying to look busy so that when a deal is not agreed they can turn to the Brexiteers in Britain and blame the EU.

Flex

One tweet I read summed it as being the “politics of provocation”

The UK government is purposely putting forward absurd proposals (and this is so brazenly bad I sincerely can’t think of any reason for coming up with them other than to provoke the EU), while simultaneously hiding the proposals from their own public (non-paper nonsense), but assuring them they’re on the cusp of a new deal. That way the talks don’t even start and the UK government then claims the EU was intransigent and wouldn’t compromise while they reference the dynamic and creative alternative arrangements they put forward (while refusing to let the UK public see them)

This is George Orwell/inter war Germany type of controlling of information to manipulate and brainwash a country. I’m eager to see if the UK media pick up on these proposals and actually scrutinise them or point out the complete idiocy

Spanish Eyes

OMFG is all I can say now regarding the latest proposal. DUP do not care about their Province or their electorate anymore. Cult, maybe akin to Wrights Bus?

Johnson couldn't give a fiddlers about the border or NI either. I don't know what to think anymore. It is baffling the lack of common sense now.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

FT saying the UK will know by the end of the week whether the EU wishes to engage with their idea.

In other words all talks could (and probably will) be halted by the weekend.

FT article is very similar to Tony Connelly's one, all about "alternative arrangements".

aerburdz

As I've said, the person who came up with these proposals was probably on drugs and drunk at the same time.

This is pandering to the Ballymena and Larne brigade of nutcase loyalists, the kind who instead of saving their dying business and the livelihoods of thousands of employees piss the money away in a fundamentalist Protestant church.

It's a monumental disgrace.

Strazdas

Peter Foster confirms Tony Connelly's story and says Johnson will submit the 'plans' to the EU by as soon as tomorrow evening :

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1178780902463299584

SeaBreezes

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

OMFG is all I can say now regarding the latest proposal. DUP do not care about their Province or their electorate anymore. Cult, maybe akin to Wrights Bus?

Johnson couldn't give a fiddlers about the border or NI either. I don't know what to think anymore. It is baffling the lack of common sense now.

His sister had the right of it. Boris's 'paymasters' want a hard Brexit to cash in and his job is to ensure it happens.
Brexit Billionaires havent a notion of signing any deal, that would involve their off shore accounts being taxed.
I can see Boris's reasoning easily, if he doesnt deliver he will be 'dead in a ditch'... He's committed to save his own hide.

What I find hard to understand, and what fascinates me, is how the Brexit Billionaries have managed to create such a devoted, blind cult around the issue. At this stage, the general public know its a bad idea economically, they know they will all lose money, they know healthcare will be threatened, they know life will get harder, they know there are no benefits to leaving (at all) and they know it enables the wealthy to avoid tax. But Brexiteers dont seem to care..

john9876

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

This from June last year shows what a 10 mile one on the UK side looks like. It includes ALL of Derry city and most of Arlene's constituency

On the Irish side ?
Ballyshannon is less than 5Km from the border so County Donegal would be cut off. Inishowen would also be cut off.

Letterkenny and Donegal town would be in in the buffer as would Dundalk and Cavan town. 10 miles would take most of Counties Leitrim and Monaghan too.

It's lunacy. And then there's the recent Kevin Lunney thing too as if anyone needed a reminder of what could happen.

Is it just me or is there something rather rude about that map?
The Mull of Kintyre may have met it's match!

aerburdz

john9876 wrote: »

Is it just me or is there something rather rude about that map?
The Mull of Kintyre may have met it's match!

This is basically repartition, and that worked well back in 1921!

ballsymchugh

Strazdas wrote: »

Peter Foster confirms Tony Connelly's story and says Johnson will submit the 'plans' to the EU by as soon as tomorrow evening :

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1178780902463299584

Rees Mogg is going to have another sh1t attack when he finds out that RTE broke the story again!

CelticRambler

SeaBreezes wrote: »

At this stage, the general public know its a bad idea economically, they know they will all lose money, they know healthcare will be threatened, they know life will get harder, they know there are no benefits to leaving (at all) and they know it enables the wealthy to avoid tax. But Brexiteers dont seem to care..

Silly SeaBreezes :P - did you not hear the news from the Tory Conference today? New hospitals, new buses, new higher minimum wages. They've been furiously fertilising the magic money tree that Theresa May pretended didn't exist, and as soon as they can throw off their EU shackles, there'll be buckets of dosh for everyone. :cool:

I'm thinking of emigrating to England - it's going to be magnificent.

Water John

It's about as believable as the other news from Javid, that he asked Johnson about the groping allegations and believed him, when he denied it.

Capt'n Midnight

J Mysterio wrote: »

lol, facepalm etc.

"Customs Centres" 5-10 miles from the border.

twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1178760377678618626 Genius.

Great comments on it.

So there'll be three borders if you include the Irish Sea one for food and phytosanction, even though the UK still hasn't confirmed it'll follow EU labelling regulations.

The UK border plan also gets messy where the A4 and A5 meet at Ballygawley. Either the customs posts are close to the border or everyone west of the Bann gets delayed.

Kermit.de.frog

The Cove says no

https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1178805608331526145

Capt'n Midnight

CelticRambler wrote: »

Silly SeaBreezes :P - did you not hear the news from the Tory Conference today? New hospitals, new buses, new higher minimum wages. They've been furiously fertilising the magic money tree that Theresa May pretended didn't exist, and as soon as they can throw off their EU shackles, there'll be buckets of dosh for everyone. :cool:

I'm thinking of emigrating to England - it's going to be magnificent.

£50Bn so they say. The magic money tree is back !

Did anyone hear how much the DUP will get ?

HS2 keeps getting dearer too.

Hinkley C just got a £2.5Bn overrun and will be delayed (up to) 15 months. Not much but they were planning on building another five.

Brexit has cost something like £80Bn so far in lost revenue compared to the OECD countries that haven't stagnated their economies.

Nett cost of staying in the EU is a rounding error on top of all of this stuff.

Infini

This isn't remotely a serious or properly researched plan it's just bait, low quality bait at that just to try and barely look like they were interested. The simple truth is Boris needs to be shoved out as he's a liability and those financial backers of his need to be given their comeuppance as well by losing their money.

I also think they EU should consider potential penalties and tariffs on the UK's remaining trade in the event of them intentionally crashing out to make the point that they're going to pay a heavy price for their stupidity.

Tell me how

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Cove says no

https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1178805608331526145

At midnight. No waiting to review in the cold light of day with Europe or the wider irish team.

He knows BS when he sees it.

Mr.Nice Guy

These proposals are daft and confirm the suspicion that there is no real effort to try and find a solution, merely to make it look like they are trying.

Here's how NI's business community have reacted:

https://twitter.com/Freight_NI/status/1178768993789890562

https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/status/1178779952952553473

https://twitter.com/angela_mcgowan/status/1178778875481993216

https://twitter.com/MichaelAodhan/status/1178766691272216578

Kermit.de.frog

Interesting how fiercly the NI business community have come out on this.

Suggests big trouble ahead for the DUP in an election as they are ignoring the majority society view.

Quantum Erasure

massive switch to UUP upcoming? What's their stance on Brexit?

from a quick google

plans would include the creation of a new criminal offence for knowingly transporting non-compliant goods through the UK to the EU.... It would also see the UK compensate the EU against such infractions, with the British assuming the legal responsibility for the damage.

The UUP also said that goods crossing the Irish border could be regulated and monitored by a new north-south body, which could replace the need for check points on the border.

The party has proposed extending the Good Friday Agreement to create the new body, which it suggested could also inform companies about divergence between UK and EU markets and inspect depots and business premises to ensure compliance.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49545492

Peregrinus

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

FT saying the UK will know by the end of the week whether the EU wishes to engage with their idea.

I think the UK knew perfectly well before their idea even leaked whether the EU would wish to engage with it.

I mean, some Brexiters are astonishingly, incredibly, mind-bogglingly stupid. But they simply cannot be that stupid.

Quantum Erasure

Peregrinus wrote: »

I think the UK knew perfectly well before their idea even leaked whether the EU would wish to engage with it.

I mean, some Brexiters are astonishingly, incredibly, mind-bogglingly stupid. But they simply cannot be that stupid.

what is acceptable to the EU? nothing short of full alliance of NI with EU rules, regulations, standards,,, everything?

Peregrinus

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

massive switch to UUP upcoming? What's their stance on Brexit?

from a quick google

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49545492

This isn't UUP policy; it's some ideas put forward by the UUP for discussion. And, note, they date from February 2019. It wasn't terribly well-received at the time.

UUP policy, as set out in their [URL="file:///C:/Users/StephenU/Downloads/uup%20GE%20manifesto.pdf"]2017 General Election manifesto[/URL], is "No hard border, or internal borders within the United Kingdom". They remain committed to that idea, as shown by the call in the February 2019 discussion paper for "a Common Area in goods", analogous to the Common Travel Area for persons.

How is this miracle to be acheived? The answer is obvious; soft Brexit. But the Tory government has been committed to hard Brexit since late 2016.

Peregrinus

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

what is acceptable to the EU? nothing short of full alliance of NI with EU rules, regulations, standards,,, everything?

No, no, nothing like that. Only alignment with with "those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement".

And (probably) that alignment could be NI-only or all-UK, or a mix of the two; whatever works for the UK.

And it would be temporary, to be superseded by a long-term treaty between the UK and the EU which would make other agreed provision for the avoidance of a hard border. (Though of course that would require a UK government willing to enter into such a treaty, which in turn requires either a realignment within the Tory party or a change of government. But in the medium term at least one, and quite possibly both, of these things are likely to happen, so this isn't a remote or unlikely eventuality.)

Quantum Erasure

Peregrinus wrote: »

No, no, nothing like that. Only alignment with with "those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement".

so... potentially yes

And (probably) that alignment could be NI-only or all-UK, or a mix of the two; whatever works for the UK.

but definitely NI anyway

And it would be temporary,

subject to the conditions above...

TBH I'm anti brexit, just trying to be a realist.

theres going to have to be some compromise regarding the border on the EU side. If not then what? no deal exit, no further talks about any future deals until NI is effectively 'given back' to Ireland / the EU?
(a Labour govt might go for a Brexit-in-name-only, I'd love to see Corbyn in power, but I don't think it'll ever happen)

Peregrinus

There has been compromise on the EU side; the backstop, and in particular the all-UK version that the UK government requested, is unwelcome to the EU for various reasons, but they compromised by agreeing to it in an attempt to meet the UK government's concerns.

Could there be more compromise? Well, never say never, but whether intentionally or otherwise the UK has worked very hard to ensure that there won't be. Two points:

- UK government under May failed to to present its own successes in negotiations as successes; the all-UK customs union, for example, was not presented as a signficant concession by the EU, which it was, and instead the narrative that it was a surrender by the UK went unchallenged. Obviously the EU is not going to make compromises if those compromises don't serve to bring agreement any nearer, and if they are denounced in the UK as a surrender then they are not going to do that.

- UK movement has been away from a deal - first questioning and then, under Johnson, effectively repudiating the Joint Report, and then resiling from positions that they themselves had taken since the joint report. Today's news about Johnson's intention to propose a "ten miles back" border is merely the continuation of this trend. This very strongly sends the message that "whatever concession you make to us, we will trouser it, harden our own position and demand more concessions". This disincentivises the offering of concessions.

- Compromises secured by May failed to get Parliament to approve the agreement. Johnson is even less likely to get Parliamentary approval for anything - he has reduced his government to a minority of 43 votes; he has never won a vote in Parliament on any subject at all; the contemptuous attempt to prorogue parliament and the disdainful treatment of parliament when that didn't work seem designed to ensure that he never will.

So, far from being the guy who can get the EU to move, as Johnson positioned himself in his leadership bid, he turns out to be absolutely the last person who can hope to get any movement out of the EU, since there is no prospect whatsoever that making any concession to Johnson will secure an agreement that Parliament will approve.

The next UK government, if it has a reasonable, coherent and realistic approach and strong support in Parliament, might be positioned to get some further movement from the EU to secure a viable deal. But this one, nope.

dePeatrick

I don't believe that the EU will compromise anymore at all, the WA negotiated by May was a starting point for what would be years of further negotiation where there would be lots of compromises.

The WA is the best way to ensure a smooth transition from an EU member to a third country. A no deal Brexit is only supported by voters who do not understand the workings of the EU, populist politicians and those who short the pound.

woohoo!!!

It's playing Billy Big Balls for Brexiteers or electioneering. It also is a ploy to get an extension request rejected in which case Johnson wins. That the UK loses will be lost amongst the flag waving.

Quantum Erasure

dePeatrick wrote: »

I don't believe that the EU will compromise anymore at all, the WA negotiated by May was a starting point for what would be years of further negotiation where there would be lots of compromises.

i read somewhere, probably on reddit, that the original Article 50 should have been written to include a 10 year negotiation/transition period, which looking at it now would probably be a more desirable (or at least likely) outcome to achieve a deal

dePeatrick

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

i read somewhere, probably on reddit, that the original Article 50 should have been written to include a 10 year negotiation/transition period, which looking at it now would probably be a more desirable (or at least likely) outcome to achieve a deal

Now that's a very good point, the original which was written by Lord Kerr iirc and some others was written with Hungary and others East European countries in mind.

Surprise, Surprise...turned out to be the UK that needed it.

There badly needs to be a general election in the UK in order to see Brexit through imo.