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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 Technical Discussion Only

Jpmarn

Starting a new thread on what is a tropical Hurricane Lorenzo which is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean south of the Azores. More details can be found in the Hurricane season Thread. I am giving Lorenzo it's own thread because at present models are bringing the Storm towards Ireland. Models at present are keeping out to sea with only minimal impact on Ireland at the moment. The latest model run are bringing the storm a bit closer to the west coast. If the storm in it’s extra tropical state should have a direct hit on Ireland it could generate wind gusts of over 160 Kmh. The storm is due nearest us next Thursday or Friday.

Mod Note:This thread is going to get very busy over the coming days and we would ask posters to adhere to the forum charter. Most importantly keep it civil and friendly. There will be no time for messing and it is imperative that the thread is not dragged off topic.

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Comments

Graces7

lcasey90 wrote: »

I like the excitement of the thoughts we could get the tail end of the hurricane. It's not often we get to track and learn about hurricanes like this one, they're usually the other side of Atlantic

Best place for them...you can track etc from a safe distance.. maybe look at the films etc from Dorian one in the Bahamas before seeking direct experience

Trust me on that..

JanuarySnowstor

Well the gfs has not backed down staying well to the West
The ukmo hasn't either though and brings Lorenzo towards Ireland on a more direct but weaker hit.

pauldry

Looking at GFS the fact that it joins up with other low kills its momentum towards us but could bring temperatures of 20c instead!!

Oneiric 3

Well to our wesht on the new GFS run:

JanuarySnowstor

You could say all roads lead to failure!!
The gfs too far West and the ukmo over us but weakening to a non event.
The hype is not justified really and if the ecm is similar it's my favourite phrase
GAME OVER! (LOL)

lcasey90

We will never experience What the Bahamas have to deal with the worse we will get is cat 1 maybe cat 2. Our buildings are also alot stronger sure they're will be damage and downed trees/ power lines. Il be happy with a moderate storm from the remnants of the hurricane.

thomasj

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/09/29/hurricane-lorenzo-is-too-strong-for-where-it-islets-deal-with-the-climate-change-question/

Interesting article from Forbes.

Oneiric 3

German model keeping it wesht also:

No doubt the ECMWF will show something contrary later.

Gaoth Laidir

What's noteworthy is how much the forecast has slowed down over the past 24 hours. Yesterday the NHC had it reaching us on Thursday evening. Today it's more like Friday morning. That's 12-18 hours extra over cold seas, which could be crucial.

cute geoge

lcasey90 wrote: »

We will never experience What the Bahamas have to deal with the worse we will get is cat 1 maybe cat 2. Our buildings are also alot stronger sure they're will be damage and downed trees/ power lines. Il be happy with a moderate storm from the remnants of the hurricane.

We got a direct hit locally with storm Darwin in feb '14 and it was sure as well was scary .It did nice damage to any buildings and if it gave another hour or so it would have the majority of houses and buildings damaged

Santy2015

Ophelia only really got going late on the Friday and Saturday before the red alert on the Sunday evening. Time yet for things to change

hatrickpatrick

Important for people to bear in mind that the NHC cone only shows the possible spread of locations for the centre of the storm, so still being in the hazard cone means the core of the storm could still move over that area, the rain and TS force winds can extend well outside that.

pad199207

Another crucial run coming up from ECM.

Discodog

lcasey90 wrote: »

We will never experience What the Bahamas have to deal with the worse we will get is cat 1 maybe cat 2. Our buildings are also alot stronger sure they're will be damage and downed trees/ power lines. Il be happy with a moderate storm from the remnants of the hurricane.

Plus these events are relatively common so our weak trees, building etc have been subjected to winds many times. The Caribbean Islands always suffer badly as the infrastructure isn't sufficient.

Discodog

pad199207 wrote: »

Another crucial run coming up from ECM.

Isn't it way too early to be relying or worrying about projected tracks/intensities ?

Gaoth Laidir

cute geoge wrote: »

We got a direct hit locally with storm Darwin in feb '14 and it was sure as well was scary .It did nice damage to any buildings and if it gave another hour or so it would have the majority of houses and buildings damaged

To be fair, comparing Darwin to Dorian in any way is just crazy. Damage potential increases with the square of the speed, so double the windspeeds and you quadruple the damage. And that's not even mentioning the worst feature...storm surge.

Kermit.de.frog

sjb25 wrote: »

Better bring the trampoline in so

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFpwgXCwMNQ

Oneiric 3

Zoomed in 'cone' based on the latest NHC advisory (29) showing probs for 50 knot winds. Really between 10% & 20% at best. Probs for > 34 knots a bit higher at around 30% to 40%

Gaoth Laidir

When all is said and done the 12Z intensity forecasts for the Azores are still more or less unchanged from the past few days' runs, CAT 1-low 2.

Current ADT estimated intensity is 105 knots.

Jpmarn

Hurricane Lorenzo has the forecasters at Met Eireann on their tippy toes as mentioned on their forecast bulletin at 7:55 AM on Radio 1.

SleetAndSnow

Interestingly the GEM has it going up the west coast then turning east over the country

Meteorite58

NHC

The forecast track confidence is
very high through 72 hours, and the new forecast is in good
agreement with the tightly clustered consensus guidance and the
previous forecast. Beyond 72 hours, the guidance now diverges
significantly, likely due to how they are handling the interaction
between Lorenzo and a larger extratropical cyclone near Greenland
late in the forecast period. The majority of the guidance has
shifted to the west by several hundred miles over the past couple of
runs. However, there remains significant spread between the
operational UKMET/ECMWF which take what's left of Lorenzo toward the
British Isles, and the solutions that absorb the cyclone into the
larger system well over 1000 miles to the west. Based on the recent
shift in the models and the large spread, the official forecast was
only adjusted a little to the left and lies well to the right of the
consensus aids. Needless to say, the forecast track confidence
beyond 72 hours is low at the moment, and may need further
adjustments in the next couple of advisories.

sdanseo

12Z ECM out as far as 96hrs and much the same. Storm accelerates a little faster on this run.

850mb winds

JanuarySnowstor

Wow ecm not backing down and brings it to the South and very close. The winner of this is still up for grabs. Fascinating to watch

ninebeanrows

96hr ECMWF very different to GFS, going for the track-right and weaken scenario but still has some intensity to it.

Such a big difference between the NCEP and EC at just 96hrs

--Regardless of which track verified, significant impacts on Ireland unlikely.

ECM1-96.GIF?29-0

JanuarySnowstor

Looks like Noaa may have to nudge the graph back East again.

PukkaStukka

The weekly forcast during BBC Countryfile underscored the uncertainty by playing the outputs of two models. One had the storm skirting the south UK coast, and the other had it staying out in the mid Atlantic pulling in milder air behind it

pad199207

Christ was wishing the ECM was going to agree just to make things easier.

All is not set and done yet.

sdanseo

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

--Regardless of which track verified, significant impacts on Ireland unlikely.

Unless a track somewhere in the middle of the two extremes materialises.
The conceivable worst case for Ireland at the moment would appear to be a storm over the country with slightly below hurricane force mean winds of perhaps 55-60kts.

If it dissipates over us as the GEM indicates, eyes open to the possibility of a heavy rain rather than wind event.

Oneiric 3

ECM does not seem to want to occluded this system at all on approach to Ireland and seems to be placing the path of the storm similar to that of the Arpege.