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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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gooch2k9

prunudo wrote: »

It's already started to play out, not war but military action.
http://news.sky.com/story/saudi-arabia-drone-attacks-johnson-refuses-to-rule-out-military-action-11817540

He's hardly going to have a Blair moment of is own?

I'd like to think Parliamentarians(if they are recalled) won't be duped into wasting time in the house on this.

prunudo

gooch2k9 wrote: »

He's hardly going to have a Blair moment of is own?

I'd like to think Parliamentarians(if they are recalled) won't be duped into wasting time in the house on this.

No, but its another distraction, take peoples mind away from constant Brexit news in the media. Also portrays them to the little Englander brexiteers as the big super power of the world like the old days telling the bold foreign countries to behave.

On another note, Thomas Cook ceasing to trade
while not directly Brexit related, it is a timely warning. The collapse of big well known companies and the effects it has on the general public could become more common should the UK government contuine on a no deal path.

Ludo

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

A war before Brexit deadline day? Against who and what reason would be given for such an act?

Against us for being big bad bullies and not allowing them to leave on their terms, etc, etc

ArmaniJeanss

prunudo wrote: »

No, but its another distraction, take peoples mind away from constant Brexit news in the media. Also portrays them as the big super power of the world like the old days telling the bold foreign countries to behave.

On another note, Thomas Cook ceasing to trade
while not directly Brexit related, it is a timely warning. The collapse of big well known companies and the effects it has on the general public could become more common should the UK government contuine on a no deal path.

They did actually warn 4 months ago that Brexit was causing them problems - it was roundly derided by the pro-Brexiteers as a failing business using Brexit as an excuse.
Though you'd have to acknowledge that travel agencies selling packages have struggled in the internet era.
Brexit may well have tipped them over the edge though, speeding up what may have been a slower and more controlled end-game.

Igotadose

Corbyn waffling in an interview. Well, I guess not waffling - he's always been anti-EU. This is one major reason this Brexit farce has gone on as long as it has - an opposition leader failing to oppose.

https://www.politico.eu/article/corbyn-brexit-uk-better-off-outside-eu-with-right-deal/

FrankPoll.

Corbyn not even expressing an opinion

How anyone could vote for Him..

Boris just as bad with the no-deal charade

What is the the point of wasting everybody's time and airtime with the no deal nonsense

lawred2

FrankPoll. wrote: »

Corbyn not even expressing an opinion

How anyone could vote for Him..

Boris just as bad with the no-deal charade

What is the the point of wasting everybody's time and airtime with the no deal nonsense

No Boris is not 'just as bad' - Boris is infinitely worse.

Labour are not responsible for Brexit. Labour are not responsible for 'no deal'. Labour are not responsible for the illegal suspension of Parliament.

Labour are in opposition. While it can be better to be clear on policy - it is their prerogative not to be. I would argue though that the Labour position is perfectly clear. Vote for us and you get another referendum. They are offering a democratic route to revocation of A50. What else is it that people want? They are not in government.

This attempt to paint a picture where Corbyn is in someway responsible in a manner that exceeds this current line of Tory disaster capitalists is reprehensible and mindless to me.

Zubeneschamali

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

They did actually warn 4 months ago that Brexit was causing them problems - it was roundly derided by the pro-Brexiteers as a failing business using Brexit as an excuse.

I have heard the same about British Steel, and I expect to hear it about more UK businesses - a lot more if Brexit ever happens.

Toyota, Airbus, Nissan, Mini - we will be hearing for many years that these businesses were all badly run by foreigners and deserved what they got when Brexit hits them.

Zubeneschamali

lawred2 wrote: »

This attempt to paint a picture where Corbyn is in someway responsible in a manner that exceeds this current line of Tory disaster capitalists is reprehensible and mindless to me.

Reprehensible, yes, but it isn't mindless. Clever people with very deep pockets are funding the relentless drumbeat that everything is Corbyn's fault.

FrankPoll.

My post went from Corbyn not expressing an opinion to being blamed for everything

lawred2

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Reprehensible, yes, but it isn't mindless. Clever people with very deep pockets are funding the relentless drumbeat that everything is Corbyn's fault.

it's mindless from the drones that parrot it

Seth Brundle

Sad reading through that list...
https://twitter.com/JonnyPrinceC/status/1176028607778607104

Some follow up tweets though...
https://twitter.com/JonnyPrinceC/status/1176038285828902912

Zubeneschamali

FrankPoll. wrote: »

My post went from Corbyn not expressing an opinion to being blamed for everything

You said Boris was "Just as bad" as Corbyn. Which is wrong, because Corbyn has been in opposition since before Brexit got started, so he has not been in charge of a single one of the disastrous decisions taken by the UK Government.

Personally, I would have been happier with a robust supporter of the EU as leader of the opposition, and Corbyn clearly isn't a fan. But that does not make any of this his fault.

And since the Tories started imploding, he has made several good moves, and is now offering a route to a 2nd Referendum with a revoke A50 option, exactly what the People's Vote folks have been looking for.

Seth Brundle

Another tweet which should frighten those in the UK who like the separation of the government and judiciary...
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1175865988551716864

Professor Moriarty

As a Leader of the Opposition in a time of crisis, Corbyn is useless. His political ideology is at variance with most party voters and the large majority of the British public. His position on Brexit is at variance with party members and most MPs. He remains a charisma free zone. He has dithered and prevaricated on Brexit (probably deliberately so) to the point where nobody can say what Labour's position is on Brexit. Even if there were a definitive position, it would change tomorrow. His failure to lead throughout the Brexit fiasco is a disgrace. It is no wonder that his approval rating have been consistently dire despite the dreadful performances of May and Johnson. He is the Tory party's best friend.

Enzokk

In another ironic twist of some sort, Thomas Cook has ceased operations taking with it thousands of jobs. They warned that Brexit was playing a role but were told not to blame Brexit for the poor running of the company. Those passengers now affected by the closure will have some degree of cover thanks to the EU and the regulations they have put in place for this exact scenario.

What is baffling to me is that people would still think Brexit is a good idea, even after countless examples of the good the EU has done for people in the UK.

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

In another ironic twist of some sort, Thomas Cook has ceased operations taking with it thousands of jobs. They warned that Brexit was playing a role but were told not to blame Brexit for the poor running of the company. Those passengers now affected by the closure will have some degree of cover thanks to the EU and the regulations they have put in place for this exact scenario.

What is baffling to me is that people would still think Brexit is a good idea, even after countless examples of the good the EU has done for people in the UK.

They have been fed lies by the Tory press for decades. It's akin to a religion at this stage.

FrankPoll.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

You said Boris was "Just as bad" as Corbyn. Which is wrong, because Corbyn has been in opposition since before Brexit got started, so he has not been in charge of a single one of the disastrous decisions taken by the UK Government.

Personally, I would have been happier with a robust supporter of the EU as leader of the opposition, and Corbyn clearly isn't a fan. But that does not make any of this his fault.

And since the Tories started imploding, he has made several good moves, and is now offering a route to a 2nd Referendum with a revoke A50 option, exactly what the People's Vote folks have been looking for.

I phrased it badly, it's hard to take him seriously when he sits on the fence

All this alleged blame on corbyn is like a reverse conspiracy theory

lawred2

FrankPoll. wrote: »

I phrased it badly, it's hard to take him seriously when he sits on the fence

All this alleged blame on corbyn is like a reverse conspiracy theory

you'll admit that that's a long way from Boris being almost as bad as him...

FrankPoll.

lawred2 wrote: »

you'll admit that that's a long way from Boris being almost as bad as him...

Well they're both clowning around with brexit

Is any of the disaster capitalist theories applied to bj proven

Zubeneschamali

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

As a Leader of the Opposition in a time of crisis, Corbyn is useless. His political ideology is at variance with most party voters and the large majority of the British public. His position on Brexit is at variance with party members and most MPs. He remains a charisma free zone. He has dithered and prevaricated on Brexit (probably deliberately so) to the point where nobody can say what Labour's position is on Brexit. Even if there were a definitive position, it would change tomorrow. His failure to lead throughout the Brexit fiasco is a disgrace. It is no wonder that his approval rating have been consistently dire despite the dreadful performances of May and Johnson. He is the Tory party's best friend.

I understand that you don't like him, I am not a fan myself, but Brexit is not his fault.

He could have been winning medals for leadership and charisma since the referendum and Brexit would have proceeded in exactly the way, because Corbyn has not been in charge. The only real measure of his leadership since then was the 2017 election, where he ran a good campaign and outperformed the polls robbing May of her majority.

Since Boris lost control, Corbyn has acted sensibly to block No Deal and he has adopted a policy which gives a route to Remain if that is what the electorate want, or a softer Labour Brexit if Leave wins the next referendum which it may well do.

You should perhaps consider that you are influenced in your personal dislike for the man by the relentless media hate campaign against him, a campaign which attacks every Labour leader, but is even more intensely anti-Corbyn because even the weakly left wing media like the Guardian are captured by the Blairites and hate Corbyn too.

Professor Moriarty

FrankPoll. wrote: »

Well they're both clowning around with brexit

Is any of the disaster capitalist theories applied to bj proven

There are proven "disaster capitalist theories" about Brexiteer politicians. And Johnson is the Brexiteers' favourite glove puppet.

Professor Moriarty

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I understand that you don't like him, I am not a fan myself, but Brexit is not his fault.

He could have been winning medals for leadership and charisma since the referendum and Brexit would have proceeded in exactly the way, because Corbyn has not been in charge. The only real measure of his leadership since then was the 2017 election, where he ran a good campaign and outperformed the polls robbing May of her majority.

Since Boris lost control, Corbyn has acted sensibly to block No Deal and he has adopted a policy which gives a route to Remain if that is what the electorate want, or a softer Labour Brexit if Leave wins the next referendum which it may well do.

You should perhaps consider that you are influenced in your personal dislike for the man by the relentless media hate campaign against him, a campaign which attacks every Labour leader, but is even more intensely anti-Corbyn because even the weakly left wing media like the Guardian are captured by the Blairites and hate Corbyn too.

I'm considerably more nuanced than you might think I am. You can blame the media but that's an easy way out. Johnson gets a much harder time than Corbyn in The Guardian, The Mirror, The New Statesman and The Independent. Similarly, most interviewers and reporters on Channel 4, BBC and Sky lean towards Remain and consequently tend to challenge Johnson more than Corbyn.

The Tory media have hammered Corbyn. That's down to their obvious bias but he's also given them a lot of ammunition. In leadership, personality matters. Johnson is infinitely more charismatic than Corbyn and that matters greatly. That's not how it should be but it's how it is. As it happens, I think that Corbyn is a man of deep integrity. His problem is his demeanour and personality, his political ideology and his indecisiveness. This isn't Tory propaganda, these are facts.

GM228

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Another tweet which should frighten those in the UK who like the separation of the government and judiciary...
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1175865988551716864

I think this is a non-runner, it is in relation to a power known as nobile officium, which is basically a gap filling power, though it can be used even where there is no gap to be filled in the interests of justice.

It can also be used on the basis of the alleviation and amelioration of law and process, perhaps even this is the angle they will attempt but it's not clear, and then the issue of separation of powers comes into play, I have questioned Jolyon on this specific topic twice to no avail.

Enzokk

Spain is looking for reciprocal treatment for the citizens in the UK and British citizens in Spain.

https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1176011727856685056?s=20

So essentially it comes down to how the UK will treat Spanish citizens post Brexit, that will determine how their citizens are treated in Spain. Thank goodness for those immigrants from the UK that they have a compassionate and empathetic Home Office that will ensure they will only get the best of both worlds.

ambro25

Enzokk wrote: »

Spain is looking for reciprocal treatment for the citizens in the UK and British citizens in Spain.

[snip]

So essentially it comes down to how the UK will treat Spanish citizens post Brexit, that will determine how their citizens are treated in Spain. Thank goodness for those immigrants from the UK that they have a compassionate and empathetic Home Office that will ensure they will only get the best of both worlds.

That cannot come as a surprise:direct reciprocity has been the EU baseline position in the negotiations about citizens' rights ever since Article 50 was triggered.

Already well-familiar with UK's HO and ambient politics of the time, and fully expecting the rethoric to only get dialled upward, it is one of the main reasons why we brexoded to LU rather NL, DE or FR (LU is significantly more multicultural than any other EU member state, with a cross-party political bias to match, and the non-trivial advantage of short-distance/short-term legislative initiative inherent to micro-countries). A gamble, sure, but a well-calculated one.

FrankPoll.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There are proven "disaster capitalist theories" about Brexiteer politicians. And Johnson is the Brexiteers' favourite glove puppet.

Says who

Is there really a handful of capitalists sending Britain to the wall

My assumption is no deal is s bluff but a bad one so al the disaster capitalist talk is misplaced IMO

ambro25

FrankPoll. wrote: »

Says who

Is there really a handful of capitalists sending Britain to the wall

My assumption is no deal is s bluff but a bad one so al the disaster capitalist talk is misplaced IMO

It was recently reported that short positions against UK plc currently run north of £8bn. Linked several times in the preceding thread (it was around 2-3 weeks ago IIRC). I understand that's the stakes, not the expected gains.

IIRC still, Odey took £200m of short positions against the £ immediately prior to the 2016 referendum and, aided by Nigel Farrage's "they won-wait-we won" bit of abracadabra bitches-PR on referendum night, made north of £800m, so that gives you an idea of what disaster capitalism moves can net you.

No deal is what I would call a half-bluff: no.10 has and continues to use it as a bluff, but it is, still and until the UK either gets a deal or revokes Art.50, the automatic legal outcome of the live Art.50 deadline as last extended. So it can perfectly well happen, by accident or not.

J Mysterio

Try as I might, I just can't understand the logic of creeps like Michael Gove.

Gove: Tories will collapse if UK is not out of EU by October 31

Rebels who do not back the PM will bring ruin on the party, warns the minister in charge of no-deal preparations

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/gove-tories-will-collapse-if-uk-is-not-out-by-october-31-d2mkbpjj9

What he is saying is the survival of the Tory party is more important than the evisveration of the UK in a No Deal crashout. That's madness. The height of irresponsibility and selfishness. How he can say that without blushing is beyond me, what a cretin.

J Mysterio

FrankPoll. wrote: »

Says who

Is there really a handful of capitalists sending Britain to the wall

My assumption is no deal is s bluff but a bad one so al the disaster capitalist talk is misplaced IMO

Read the last two pages. There is a man called Crispin Odey bankrolling Boris, and he was very keen for silencing parliament as far back as July. He wants a No Deal crashout at all costs.