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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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beauf

beaz2018 wrote: »

I see a property (Glasnevin) on the price register this week that was for sale in late 2017 but was taken down and put up again in late 2018. It has sold for far less than the bidding was at in 2017. Im sure they regret not selling it then as it clearly was the peak of this current boom.

Some of the areas I'm looking at are pretty much the same as the last peak.

Other areas not so much.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Drogheda / Meath East prices now at highest since the boom, up about 10% on last year in my area, still approx 20% below 2007 however.

Browney7

beauf wrote: »

The flat earthers are over there --->

https://www.thejournal.ie/rtb-annual-report-4124661-Jul2018/

So of the 330,000 or so tenancies, €1.3 million of rent arrears awarded to LLs? €4 per tenancy?

The Student

Browney7 wrote: »

So of the 330,000 or so tenancies, €1.3 million of rent arrears awarded to LLs? €4 per tenancy?

It would appear the average payout for a landlord who won their case was €3400 it is not the average of all landlords in Ireland.

JohnCleary

beauf wrote: »

The flat earthers are over there --->

https://www.thejournal.ie/rtb-annual-report-4124661-Jul2018/

Quite possibly idiot landlords who do not get their tenants properly, or using agents (useful as a chocolate teapot).

I was a very involved landlord, dealt direct with tenants. Offered very competitive rents and the rare occasion an issue arose (only thing I can think of was immersion element calfing), fixed next day.

Maybe they were just grateful to have a decent LL

beauf

So what your saying that if anything other than an immersion fails. Its is because the landlord is being stupid or using an agent. Because that's your experience you'd expect the exact same thing for every other property and every other tenant.

Cuddlesworth

The Student wrote: »

It would appear the average payout for a landlord who won their case was €3400 it is not the average of all landlords in Ireland.

Interesting tidbit. In most landlord PRTB cases I have heard about, the landlord must first successfully evict the tenant before seeking the remaining rent arrears and damages. For most problem tenants, they didn't bother trying to recover the arrears.

voluntary

Residential Property Price Index for February 2019 is out.

February was a fourth conecutive month of price drops both nationally and in Dublin. The price decrease pace deccelerated in February though.
In Dublin the largest decreases were reported in South Dublin. Dublin apartments dropped by 1.2% while Dublin houses increased by 0.2%.
Fingal was the only area in Dublin which recorded house price increases in February (+0.6%).

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexfebruary2019/index.html

Terrlock

With rents sky rocketing in Dublin and living in Ireland becoming increasingly difficult for the working class should the whole tax scheme around rental properties in Ireland be over hauled.

I understand where there is demand there is an increase in rents.

The majority of the country has been under developped so all the jobs are concentrating around the cities.

However I find that while the rental market demand has increase so has the difficulty of becoming a private landlord - as with the current level of tax and the overall hassell makes it a very unattractive market to get into.

This leads to large corporates taking over the rental market - and by such they can keep increasing all the rents at they see fit- given that they now own the majority of rental accomodations in key areas of the city.

I just feel that the people in Ireland are getting shafted at all ends of the scale - and in fact in the middle.

Should we not reduce the tax levels of renting out a second home and make it worthwhile for the small landlord to re enter the rental market. And not just have a market that only favours the big players.

AlmightyCushion

Terrlock wrote: »

With rents sky rocketing in Dublin and living in Ireland becoming increasingly difficult for the working class should the whole tax scheme around rental properties in Ireland be over hauled.

I understand where there is demand there is an increase in rents.

The majority of the country has been under developped so all the jobs are concentrating around the cities.

However I find that while the rental market demand has increase so has the difficulty of becoming a private landlord - as with the current level of tax and the overall hassell makes it a very unattractive market to get into.

This leads to large corporates taking over the rental market - and by such they can keep increasing all the rents at they see fit- given that they now own the majority of rental accomodations in key areas of the city.

I just feel that the people in Ireland are getting shafted at all ends of the scale - and in fact in the middle.

Should we not reduce the tax levels of renting out a second home and make it worthwhile for the small landlord to re enter the rental market. And not just have a market that only favours the big players.

Reducing tax levels on rental income won't reduce rent costs though. We should make it a lot easier to evict tenants who either aren't paying their rent or are wrecking the place.

LotharIngum

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Reducing tax levels on rental income won't reduce rent costs though. We should make it a lot easier to evict tenants who either aren't paying their rent or are wrecking the place.

Reducing the tax by at least 50% might be enough to bring some landlords back into the market.
It might even encourage some new blood into the market beside bring back some of those who have left.
Not me though.

I see more red tape and hassle being mooted for landlords again on the journal today. The hits just keep on coming if you are renting out your property.
Best thing I ever did was get out of it.

Bluefoam

voluntary wrote: »

Residential Property Price Index for February 2019 is out.

February was a fourth conecutive month of price drops both nationally and in Dublin. The price decrease pace deccelerated in February though.
In Dublin the largest decreases were reported in South Dublin. Dublin apartments dropped by 1.2% while Dublin houses increased by 0.2%.
Fingal was the only area in Dublin which recorded house price increases in February (+0.6%).

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexfebruary2019/index.html

Yep, the decrease continues. March & April will be interesting...

ELM327

What about the country excl dublin, are prices following the same path?

Bluefoam

ELM327 wrote: »

What about the country excl dublin, are prices following the same path?

Yes, it's all in the link. Prices over the past four months droping month on month. Year on year its a 4.3% increase nationwie.

Jaster Rogue

voluntary wrote: »

Residential Property Price Index for February 2019 is out.

February was a fourth conecutive month of price drops both nationally and in Dublin. The price decrease pace deccelerated in February though.
In Dublin the largest decreases were reported in South Dublin. Dublin apartments dropped by 1.2% while Dublin houses increased by 0.2%.
Fingal was the only area in Dublin which recorded house price increases in February (+0.6%).

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexfebruary2019/index.html

That's interesting about Fingal, I've been noticing a good few houses selling for over asking price in Dublin 15 lately. Thought it was indicative of the overall market picking up in new year but clearly not. There's so many different segments of the market (apartment vs house, sub 500k vs over 500k, Dublin vs rural, etc) behaving in very different ways which can make an overall nationwide market % value very misleading.

Bluefoam

Jaster Rogue wrote: »

That's interesting about Fingal, I've been noticing a good few houses selling for over asking price in Dublin 15 lately. Thought it was indicative of the overall market picking up in new year but clearly not. There's so many different segments of the market (apartment vs house, sub 500k vs over 500k, Dublin vs rural, etc) behaving in very different ways which can make an overall nationwide market % value very misleading.

Asking prices are not a good indicator... only selling prices. If you are aware of the selling data, you can manage how to deal with asking prices in a more informed way.

Having said that, sometimes a house is worth more to you, just because you want it.

LotharIngum

What we are seeing now is the zipping up and squeezing together of the different types of property prices.

For example you will see the central bank rules effecting a certain price band. Then the price band immediately below that will get squeezed closer to it as the people in the higher band move to the lower band as they are all moving up.

You might have an effect like the properties over €450k are having to reduce their prices by €25k to get a buyer.
Meanwhile more buyers cant get about the cap they will start buying in the €350 - €450k bank increasing prices in that band and then sucking apartments and so on in the band below into it.

Eventually you'll have apartments costing €350k and 3 bed semis costing €450k and everything in between at the different levels.
Whereas now you have apartments for €200k and houses for €450k with everything in between widened out.

Just sample figures, but we need property prices to take into account the different types of property and the areas that they are in.
Without that once a cap is introduced the current method is meaningless.

It needs to be more granular or it loses its meaning.

voluntary

Jaster Rogue wrote: »

That's interesting about Fingal, I've been noticing a good few houses selling for over asking price in Dublin 15 lately. Thought it was indicative of the overall market picking up in new year but clearly not. There's so many different segments of the market (apartment vs house, sub 500k vs over 500k, Dublin vs rural, etc) behaving in very different ways which can make an overall nationwide market % value very misleading.

Fingal is rather on the lower side of prices in the market. Also the majority of new builds around Dublin are in Fingal. New house sales move the average price up a bit as new homes in Fingal are generally more expensive than the older stock.

ELM327

Bluefoam wrote: »

Yes, it's all in the link. Prices over the past four months droping month on month. Year on year its a 4.3% increase nationwie.

Interesting, nationally we see a YoY increase of 4.3%
Currently at 104% of the 2005 prices.

yet because of a couple of downward months there's a downward trend??

beauf

Jaster Rogue wrote: »

That's interesting about Fingal, I've been noticing a good few houses selling for over asking price in Dublin 15 lately. Thought it was indicative of the overall market picking up in new year but clearly not. There's so many different segments of the market (apartment vs house, sub 500k vs over 500k, Dublin vs rural, etc) behaving in very different ways which can make an overall nationwide market % value very misleading.

Fingal/Dublin 15 has a wide diversity from millionaire houses to some very poor areas often not that far apart. So desirability varies enormously. Also some new builds are in the middle of nowhere with no services, other parts are beside train lines, lots of schools etc.

beauf

LotharIngum wrote: »

What we are seeing now is the zipping up and squeezing together of the different types of property prices....

Affordability comes into it. What is affordable for different types of buyers. Is it a starter apartment, or young family.

seamus

voluntary wrote: »

Am I the 'doom and gloom merchant' you're referring to? Why? I posted pure, unedited statistics ont the last three months transactions data available. Moreover reported by the CSO. With no personal comment. It's you who created the whole 'doom and gloom' areola around that.

There's something going on.

In addition to the 3 months of negative house price growth, the only two publically-traded construction companies - Cairn and Glenveagh - saw their share prices dip badly in the second half of last year, recovered a bit before dropping this week. The owners of Cairns engaged in a substantial sell-off of shares this week.

I have also heard anecdotally of a number of large financial transactions in construction that have been put on hold (flotations & acquisitions), as well as brand new estates that have sold off 50% or more of the properties to the state because of poor sales.

Maybe Brexit, maybe global conditions, maybe lending rules . Hopefully the latter, but there's something going on.

ELM327

As an analyst there are a number of risk factors which leads me to believe a recession (much smaller scale than 2008/9) is imminent within 18-24 months. Brexit is one, yield inversion curves are a good indication of this.

Central bank rules are good, not bad, and will ensure less exposure if there is another recession compared to last time.

GingerLily

ELM327 wrote: »

As an analyst there are a number of risk factors which leads me to believe a recession (much smaller scale than 2008/9) is imminent within 18-24 months. Brexit is one, yield inversion curves are a good indication of this.

Central bank rules are good, not bad, and will ensure less exposure if there is another recession compared to last time.

I'm sure your not the only analyst here, plenty of analysts and economists predict things every day, some happen, some don't.

Probably best for all the speculation for another thread

Woshy

Frank Castle wrote: »

Yes, but I think woshy believes they can put in a smaller deposit by getting an exemption from the 3.5 rule?
Just commenting to make sure they don't pursue something that will not work for them.

What they would be looking for is an exemption to the LTV in order to put down a smaller deposit?

In my post I said I wanted to apply for an LTV exemption. I didn't say anything about wanting an LTI exemption - i.e. the 3.5 rule.

The mortgage we need is a good bit less than 3.5 times our combined salary. I do want to pay less of a deposit if we can though. It is my understanding from my research that that is something we can apply for.

Terrlock

I think it's bad for Ireland that big investors are being allowed to take over the market.

It's these that should be taxed heavily - What benefits does this have for the people of Ireland.

These are the real controllers of the rent prices and even the availability of property.

I wouldn't be surprised to find some of our government ministers and previous ministers heavily invested in them.

ELM327

GingerLily wrote: »

I'm sure your not the only analyst here, plenty of analysts and economists predict things every day, some happen, some don't.

Probably best for all the speculation for another thread

I'm not speculating on anything, it would of course be in all of our interests if there isnt a recession.

But this is related to property prices and mortgage applications etc so is completely relevant here.

Jaster Rogue

LotharIngum wrote: »

Eventually you'll have apartments costing €350k and 3 bed semis costing €450k and everything in between at the different levels.

That would happen if everyone earned the average industrial salary. There will always be groups of skilled professionals (medicine, law, IT, financial services, management etc) who eventually earn 2-3 times the average and who prefer to live in more affluent areas. If a 3 bed semi costs the same in Ballymun and Clontarf, which area would you select?

I think the upper limit in desirable areas will be a lot higher than €450k. For a married couple who are both experienced professionals, €200k household income is not uncommon. They could easily afford properties €700k+. That's what 3 beds cost in areas like Rathgar and Mount Merrion.

There's also a lot of inherited wealth in this country. We're mistakenly assuming the only means people have to purchase property is their salary from work.

givyjoe

ELM327 wrote: »

As an analyst there are a number of risk factors which leads me to believe a recession (much smaller scale than 2008/9) is imminent within 18-24 months. Brexit is one, yield inversion curves are a good indication of this.

Central bank rules are good, not bad, and will ensure less exposure if there is another recession compared to last time.

ELM327 wrote: »

I'm not speculating on anything, it would of course be in all of our interests if there isnt a recession.

But this is related to property prices and mortgage applications etc so is completely relevant here.

Sorry, but speculation is exactly how the above reads. You cannot speak with any certainty that a recession is imminent. Anyway, isn't a recession a sustained period of negative growth, 2 successive quarters? Isn't it more likely that what we will see is a slowdown in growth, rather than an actual recession.?

ELM327

givyjoe wrote: »

Sorry, but speculation is exactly how the above reads. You cannot speak with any certainty that a recession is imminent. Anyway, isn't a recession a sustained period of negative growth, 2 successive quarters? Isn't it more likely that what we will see is a slowdown in growth, rather than an actual recession.?

That is exactly the definition of a recession.
I am not the only one, research yield curve inversion and how it is one of the first precursors of recession. Service industry decline(another initial precursor) is anecdotally happening since Q1 2019 too, although some attribute this to the VAT changes.

A house I was watching had its price dropped today, I went to view it 2 months ago and there were no takers. A change from the queues I experienced at viewings 12-24 months ago. The market is changing, and it is not positive change we are seeing. I don't think we will see a recession like the sub prime mortgage one of 10 years ago, the same factors are not there, but it is shown in the data that we will see a slowdown, and perhaps a recession globally. 18-24 months, possibly sooner depending on what the brits do.

Woshy wrote: »

In my post I said I wanted to apply for an LTV exemption. I didn't say anything about wanting an LTI exemption - i.e. the 3.5 rule.

The mortgage we need is a good bit less than 3.5 times our combined salary. I do want to pay less of a deposit if we can though. It is my understanding from my research that that is something we can apply for.

Yes it is, you can apply for the ltv exemption, and given you are borrowing less than 3.5 may be more likely to get it !