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Is a Fianna Fail - Sinn Fein coalition inevitable?

Godot.

A crucial moment in Fianna Fail's history is approaching. Opinion polls have remained largely rigid since the last general election, don't look like changing much any time soon and they can't spend another 5 years abstaining.

In my view, a coalition with Fine Gael is a non-runner. A coalition with FG as a junior partner would eventually lead to the demise of Fianna Fail. They would be broken at the following election. FG would sweep up their right wing and Sinn Fein would take the centrist Republicans.

Fine Gael and Sinn Fein are just too ideologically different to make a coalition, but Fianna Fail have a lot of Republicans in their party who sympathise with Sinn Fein (Eamon O'Cuiv and the like). Likewise, they have a lot of people in the party who despise Sinn Fein, but something has to give here. Their support may never recover to previous levels, so they need to take the opportunity for a coalition with Sinn Fein to show they can govern competantly.

In my view, if Martin ever wants to become Taoiseach he needs to swallow his pride and enter into a coalition with Sinn Fein.... or he'll be replaced by someone who will.

Thoughts?

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LuckyLloyd

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

No no.

1 in 5 homeless are from outside the EU and arrived here illegally.

That’s a lie or a misinterpretation. Do you have a link to back up your claim?

Wheeliebin30

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

That’s a lie or a misinterpretation. Do you have a link to back up your claim?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rte.ie/amp/1039786/

The Dublin Region Homeless Executive says 21% of the new families presenting as homeless last year were non-EU citizens, with 67% Irish and 12% from other EU countries.

The report, Homeless Action Plan 2019-2022, says that non-EU families present a "significant challenge" as some are here illegally or awaiting residency status, and there is a lack of clarity over their entitlement to housing and support services.

McMurphy

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

That’s a lie or a misinterpretation. Do you have a link to back up your claim?

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rte.ie/amp/1039786/

The Dublin Region Homeless Executive says 21% of the new families presenting as homeless last year were non-EU citizens, with 67% Irish and 12% from other EU countries.

The report, Homeless Action Plan 2019-2022, says that non-EU families present a "significant challenge" as some are here illegally or awaiting residency status, and there is a lack of clarity over their entitlement to housing and support services.

That doesn't say what you think it says.

It says "some' are here illegally or awaiting residency status. It then goes on to say that there's a lack of clarity over their entitlement to housing.

It doesn't say that all of the non Irish / Non EU families are here illegally, I questioned this myself earlier in the thread - as to how illegal immigrants qualify for social housing, and my guess is they don't.

That report is not saying they do or they do not, it's saying there's a lack of clarity to their legal entitlement to social housing, so it's impossible to say how many of the 21% are.

It could be 1%, it could be 21% it could be 0%

Wheeliebin30

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

That doesn't say what you think it says.

It says "some' are here illegally or awaiting residency status. It then goes on to say that there's a lack of clarity over their entitlement to housing.

It doesn't say that all of the non Irish / Non EU families are here illegally, I questioned this myself earlier in the thread - as to how illegal immigrants qualify for social housing, and my guess is they don't.

That report is not saying they do or they do not, it's saying there's a lack of clarity to their legal entitlement to social housing, so it's impossible to say how many of the 21% are.

It could be 1%, it could be 21% it could be 0%

Oh I agree.

It states 1 out of 5 are from outside the EU and illegally.

It’s a mixture of both in that stat.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rte.ie/amp/1039786/

The Dublin Region Homeless Executive says 21% of the new families presenting as homeless last year were non-EU citizens, with 67% Irish and 12% from other EU countries.

The report, Homeless Action Plan 2019-2022, says that non-EU families present a "significant challenge" as some are here illegally or awaiting residency status, and there is a lack of clarity over their entitlement to housing and support services.

How many are EEA citizens?

maccored

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

Oh I agree.

It states 1 out of 5 are from outside the EU and illegally.

It’s a mixture of both in that stat.

goalposts successfully moved. Above you say its a mixture, below you state as a fact that 1 in 5 are illegal

Wheeliebin30 wrote:

No no.

1 in 5 homeless are from outside the EU and arrived here illegally.

Wheeliebin30

maccored wrote: »

goalposts successfully moved. Above you say its a mixture, below you state as a fact that 1 in 5 are illegal

Ok spiliuting hairs.

No 1 in 5 are from outside the EU and arrived here illegally.

Doesn’t take away from the fact that it’s impossible to house everyone who rocks up looking for a house.

Or is that what people want?

Chips Lovell

Even if they were all here illegally, it doesn't make that much difference to the immediate problem. Being an illegal immigrant doesn't make them any less homeless.

McMurphy

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

Ok spiliuting hairs.

No 1 in 5 are from outside the EU and arrived here illegally.

Doesn’t take away from the fact that it’s impossible to house everyone who rocks up looking for a house.

Or is that what people want?

But how did you arrive at that figure?

The report you quoted stated that "some" arrived illegally or are awaiting residency status.

How did you overcome the significant challenge, they themselves said they faced determining their housing entitlement?

Besides, as already mentioned, either or makes them no less homeless.

[Deleted User]

Chips Lovell wrote: »

Even if they were all here illegally, it doesn't make that much difference to the immediate problem. Being an illegal immigrant doesn't make them any less homeless.

If ther rocked up in America or Australia without anyway to live and not enough funds to live on, would they be taken in and given a home? Time to weed out the chancers no matter where they come from.

Wheeliebin30

Chips Lovell wrote: »

Even if they were all here illegally, it doesn't make that much difference to the immediate problem. Being an illegal immigrant doesn't make them any less homeless.

Can you blame the government for a person arriving homeless?????

blanch152

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

That doesn't say what you think it says.

It says "some' are here illegally or awaiting residency status. It then goes on to say that there's a lack of clarity over their entitlement to housing.

It doesn't say that all of the non Irish / Non EU families are here illegally, I questioned this myself earlier in the thread - as to how illegal immigrants qualify for social housing, and my guess is they don't.

That report is not saying they do or they do not, it's saying there's a lack of clarity to their legal entitlement to social housing, so it's impossible to say how many of the 21% are.

It could be 1%, it could be 21% it could be 0%

It does mean though that the homeless figure is over-estimated.

James Brown

blanch152 wrote: »

It does mean though that the homeless figure is over-estimated.

And what's Eoghan defining as 'homeless' this week? I think it's safe to say that even with the FG cooked numbers we are still breaking records, so Margret Cash and all that aside, it's not going well.

We digress, can't see any decent self respecting party siding with FF unless FF have a junior role, even then I'd lose respect for those who signed up.

Wheeliebin30

blanch152 wrote: »

It does mean though that the homeless figure is over-estimated.

My point all along.

The opposition every day bleating on about how FG have failed each of those 10,000 people yada yada

What a load of nonsense.

It’s a farce this whole “homeless” crisis.

FrancieBrady

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

My point all along.

The opposition every day bleating on about how FG have failed each of those 10,000 people yada yada

What a load of nonsense.

It’s a farce this whole “homeless” crisis.

So what is the level of homelessness in your estimation?

blanch152

Matt Barrett wrote: »

And what's Eoghan defining as 'homeless' this week? I think it's safe to say that even with the FG cooked numbers we are still breaking records, so Margret Cash and all that aside, it's not going well.

We digress, can't see any decent self respecting party siding with FF unless FF have a junior role, even then I'd lose respect for those who signed up.

How are we digressing?

The information states that 1 in 5 of those listed as homeless seeking accommodation are non-Eu and that some of these are illegal immigrants. It has been stated that if you are non-EU and illegal, you are not entitled to be on the list. That means that the list overstates the problem.

Simple mathematics again, simple facts.

James Brown

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So what is the level of homelessness in your estimation?

It's indefinable Francie. Even Eoghan saying we've a problem. The figures, who's ever you might prefer, showing things get worse. The record breaking, Varadkar himself saying he reckons only a few are pretending, we can move it to immigrants when we run out of our own to saddle the blame upon. It's a pointless discussion IMO. It's agreed by all elected and official quarters to be a worsening crisis. I think that's enough to be going on with.
This stems from the old chestnut scaremongering post earlier in the thread suggesting SF would be worse and my suggesting they'd have a long way to go in many of the areas that poster listed to make things worse or show the same level of 'quality'.

James Brown

blanch152 wrote: »

How are we digressing?

The information states that 1 in 5 of those listed as homeless seeking accommodation are non-Eu and that some of these are illegal immigrants. It has been stated that if you are non-EU and illegal, you are not entitled to be on the list. That means that the list overstates the problem.

Simple mathematics again, simple facts.

So FF will go into coalition with SF?

Chips Lovell

There is a difference between "presenting as homeless" and being on the housing list. Presenting as homeless doesn't mean you will be added to this housing list if you're not entitled to be on it.

The DRHE is saying that because 21 percent of people are non-EU nationals, they often have few/no entitlements and there is a limited amount they can do for them.

blanch152

Matt Barrett wrote: »

So FF will go into coalition with SF?

Fair enough, then it is digressing, but I am no more guilty than others on the thread.

I might have to revert to pictures of Mary-Lou walking behind banners

John DoeReMi

A FF/SF would see the country bankrupt again in six months. Sinn Fein's price for supporting FF would be massive social welfare and public sector pay increases. FF are bad enough on their own for this. With SF on board we'd make Argentina look a model of financial probity.

Wheeliebin30

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So what is the level of homelessness in your estimation?

The people sleeping on the streets each night.

Around 170.

James Brown

blanch152 wrote: »

Fair enough, then it is digressing, but I am no more guilty than others on the thread.

I might have to revert to pictures of Mary-Lou walking behind banners

I said 'we'.
SF supporting 'England out of Ireland', the shock and awe of it all

Dyr

FG haven't messed up on housing. Housing is going exactly as FG want it to go right now, this is what they are.

I've a house with a reasonable mortgage and I'm insulated from all this but any party that comes up with a plan that addresses housing for the average joe in a sustainable manner will get my vote.

James Brown

John DoeReMi wrote: »

A FF/SF would see the country bankrupt again in six months. Sinn Fein's price for supporting FF would be massive social welfare and public sector pay increases. FF are bad enough on their own for this. With SF on board we'd make Argentina look a model of financial probity.

I think FF should have been wound down TBH. How they keep a straight face is beyond me and how any party, SF included, could go into business with them under any pretense is low grade governing.
We don't know if SF would bankrupt the place. We know FF have and we know FG oversee worsening crises. I don't think it makes sense to stick with alternating between two not fit for purpose entities because SF might do something. Fair point for any reservations but are we to stick with the FF/FG combo because they've the experience? Be it SF or whom ever, we seriously need a break from FF/FG IMO.

blanch152

Bambi wrote: »

FG haven't messed up on housing. Housing is going exactly as FG want it to go right now, this is what they are.

I've a house with a reasonable mortgage and I'm insulated from all this but any party that comes up with a plan that addresses housing for the average joe in a sustainable manner will get my vote.

http://economic-incentives.blogspot.com/2019/03/housing-costs-in-silc.html

Just came across this, makes for interesting reading. When it comes to housing, Ireland isn't as badly off as is commonly thought, relative to other countries, but people perceive that they are badly off.

James Brown

blanch152 wrote: »

http://economic-incentives.blogspot.com/2019/03/housing-costs-in-silc.html

Just came across this, makes for interesting reading. When it comes to housing, Ireland isn't as badly off as is commonly thought, relative to other countries, but people perceive that they are badly off.

Call Fine Gael and tell them it's all stuff and nonsense. I can write a blog telling you 'sure it's grand' because I'm doing okay re housing.
People who can't pay rent without government aide despite working full time and people having to move back in with their parents might differ.
The people who matter, government, state, international recognised organisations agree there's a crisis. That's good enough for me.
Again, be tough for any party to match FG/FF on housing, health, justice etc.

blanch152

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Call Fine Gael and tell them it's all stuff and nonsense. I can write a blog telling you 'sure it's grand' because I'm doing okay re housing.
People who can't pay rent without government aide despite working full time and people having to move back in with their parents might differ.
The people who matter, government, state, international recognised organisations agree there's a crisis. That's good enough for me.
Again, be tough for any party to match FG/FF on housing, health, justice etc.

You could write a blog, but it wouldn't be believable unless it had hard facts in it like that one does.

James Brown

blanch152 wrote: »

You could write a blog, but it wouldn't be believable unless it had hard facts in it like that one does.

There's many an and or but in that blog. It's open to interpretation. Do you think there's a crisis? If yes, this discussion is pointless. If no, I disagree, as does the UN and Fine Gael along with any other political party including the Greens. So not sure why you are obsessing on this line when nobody but yourself and wheels seem to want to.

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

Rabble rabble FFG.

You offer zero solutions ever.

Nothing credible.

The fact your username is Leo Varadkars partner tells me all I need to know.

You are giving the by-rote stock codswallop you must have saved for cutting and pasting. I've done so many many times, to you directly in threads about housing and government.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=105256351&postcount=48

You're the dodger in this.

Would SF do a worse job than FF/FG? Your answer; illegal immigrants on the homeless list. Quality.

McMurphy

@ wheeliebin, that's a bit unfair, you've been shown by multiple posters (and the very source you linked to) that your 21%/1 in 5 argument was based on nothing more than mere speculation with a little splash of wisfulness on your part.

People have posted over and over again giving detailed information as to why your statement is incorrect (the report you linked to said it was uncertain how many it applied to)

You also seem to have latched on to the homeless crises FG have overseen, purposely ignoring all the other issues mentioned up thread.

You then come on implying someone is "rabble rabble rabble".

This is what I was referring to in my very first posts in this thread tbh.