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Strong Winds, Heavy Rain Wintry Weather : Sat 2nd to Mon 4th March 2019

Meteorite58

Worth keeping an eye on how this Depression develops on Saturday. The Models in general have been showing it track up off the NW coast but on latest runs they have been bringing it closer to the coast and showing some strong winds , the GFS not too dissimilar to the ECM at this stage showing a swathe of strong winds across much of the country for a number of hours , showing the strongest winds atm in the W.

More than likely warnings will be issued .

Most tellingly is that the ECM 12Z tracks the centre closer to the coast on the latest run with strong winds gusting 100 to 110 kph inland in places .

Will see how this pans out one way or the other.

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Lucreto

Each winter I want to walk in falling snow.
Last night mission accomplished \○/

Mental Mickey

Is it safe to drive this morning?

DOCARCH

Mental Mickey wrote: »

Is it safe to drive this morning?

Yes.

Mental Mickey

DOCARCH wrote: »

Yes.

We have to negotiate an icy driveway in our wheelchairs

sryanbruen

Dublin has had snow on March 1/2 2015, March 4 2016, March 1-3 2018 and March 3 2019. Bit of a coincidence.

Correction on saying this probably being the 4th best snow event of the decade here, forgot about 18 March 2018.

sryanbruen

Just noticed the thread title says 2018. Funny how I made the same mistake above.

_Kaiser_

Have they sorted out the M7 and surrounding areas in North Kildare at this point? I'm looking out the window in Laois and the car is still covered by snow and the driveway pretty thick with it.

Deciding whether it's worth driving to work (and the inevitable delays more so if it's still bad enough), or work from home today

harr

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Have they sorted out the M7 and surrounding areas in North Kildare at this point? I'm looking out the window in Laois and the car is still covered by snow and the driveway pretty thick with it.

Deciding whether it's worth driving to work (and the inevitable delays more so if it's still bad enough), or work from home today

Was just chatting to friend who is currently on the M7 and he says it’s crawling, the road isn’t particularly slippery but just volume and people probably being over cautious. He did mention that all back roads in kildare and Laois are bad and it took him the extra half hour to get to motorway.

PixelTrawler

sryanbruen wrote: »

Dublin has had snow on March 1/2 2015, March 4 2016, March 1-3 2018 and March 3 2019. Bit of a coincidence.

Correction on saying this probably being the 4th best snow event of the decade here, forgot about 18 March 2018.

We had a day of heavy snow March 27th 2013 also

fryup

this has got to be the result of global warming/climate change??

JCX BXC

fryup wrote: »

this has got to be the result of global warming/climate change??

We generally try to keep that aspect of discussion out of these type of threads.

pad199207

Drip drip drip

cnocbui

pistolpetes11

Well it maybe short lived but the kids got there day out in the snow so everyone is happy in this house in Newbridge

CianDon

I was up at the Limerick Forest Rally yesterday when the blizzard started. Utter misery standing out for two hours photographing the cars, utter misery taking 55mins to get four miles back to Service to find out the event was cancelled and even more misery having a 65min journey home taking 3.5 Hours.

km79

You had fun at the rally so

Utter misery is right. I think I might post some photos of the last 2 weeks of record breaking February temps to cheer/warm myself up

lucernarian

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It does look to be a degree or so colder than progged, but when I talk of snow I mean proper snow, not the wet stuff that seems to be falling. Here down the road from you it's just cold rain at 65 m amsl, with about 10% sleet thrown in there. I can't see any thing of note falling throughout the day but it would be nice if it did. WBTs around the country still too high for me.

This thing with wet bulb temperatures... There are issues with using it a guide for snow, not least the latent heat of ice sublimination that's not taken into account, and wet bulb temperatures being mostly invariant to changing humidity levels isn't actually useful when you want to incorporate the effects of precipitation and phase changes upon the precipitation as a whole. What I saw yesterday was snow sticking at wbts >0.5 sometimes, but never with dewpoints >0.

Still, I didn't give yesterday much chance of any widespread snow, much less in low lying parts of Dublin :eek: and reports from Kerry and Cork too, nice event for much of the country

km79

Nasty nasty hail shower ongoing in athenry

RobertKK

Still bits of snow around here on the hills in Kilkenny.

Gaoth Laidir

lucernarian wrote: »

This thing with wet bulb temperatures... There are issues with using it a guide for snow, not least the latent heat of ice sublimination that's not taken into account, and wet bulb temperatures being mostly invariant to changing humidity levels isn't actually useful when you want to incorporate the effects of precipitation and phase changes upon the precipitation as a whole. What I saw yesterday was snow sticking at wbts >0.5 sometimes, but never with dewpoints >0.

Still, I didn't give yesterday much chance of any widespread snow, much less in low lying parts of Dublin :eek: and reports from Kerry and Cork too, nice event for much of the country

Sublimation is less critical than melting when it comes to cases like yesterday, where we have a deep near-zero saturated layer from the surface up to mid levels, producing more of a wet snow. This is different to a drier atmosphere, where each snowflake will have a lower liquid-water loading and hence fluffier snow.

I was looking back at why the model soundings changed so abruptly from 00Z and 06Z to 12Z and it seems to be related to enhanced lift through slightly different upper dynamics, which cooled the whole atmospheric column just enough to knock the wbt through the bottom km or so that little bit to the colder side than had been shown in earlier models. This can be seen by comparing the actual IR satellite imagery to the model simulated IR. I don't think it had anything to do with evaporative cooling as this can't occur when the whole column is near 100% r.h.

Regarding the actual wbt values reported during snow yesterday, looking at all synop stations that reported snow (Shannon Airport, Casement, Dublin Airport and Mullingar), every one of them had sleet/rain turn to snow only when the wbt was around 0.5 °C or lower. See all hourly reports below (click on each station). The wbt is around half way between the dry-bulb temperature (T) and dewpoint (Td). Present weather is the WW column. Dewpoints can be just a few tenths above 0.0 if the dbt is sufficiently low (<1.0).

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&state=Irel&osum=no&fmt=html&ord=REV&ano=2019&mes=03&day=04&hora=12&ndays=1&Send=send

Mortelaro

Quite a bit of disquiet on the radio news programmes today about the lack of information about potential disruption
No info on the large motorway signs for example
That's simply because met Éireann gave forecasts that lead everyone to expect mostly rain
So roads filled up with drivers unused to the conditions
I'd imagine nothing was gritted either for the same reason
It was a fail but an understandable one where mother nature trumped science

mobil 222

CianDon wrote: »

I was up at the Limerick Forest Rally yesterday when the blizzard started. Utter misery standing out for two hours photographing the cars, utter misery taking 55mins to get four miles back to Service to find out the event was cancelled and even more misery having a 65min journey home taking 3.5 Hours.

Well thanks for the Photos They are very good and a credit to ya.
Did they get ' Baby Blue Frank Kelly' out of the drain
#Limerick Forestry Rally.

Grandeeod

Mortelaro wrote: »

Quite a bit of disquiet on the radio news programmes today about the lack of information about potential disruption
No info on the large motorway signs for example
That's simply because met Éireann gave forecasts that lead everyone to expect mostly rain
So roads filled up with drivers unused to the conditions
I'd imagine nothing was gritted either for the same reason
It was a fail but an understandable one where mother nature trumped science

That sums it up. Thankfully it was a Sunday and not a Monday to Friday event. That would have been real chaos.

This is the view from the Laois Ski resort yesterday afternoon.:D

Attachment not found.

Kermit.de.frog

Worth keeping an eye on Tuesday evening and overnight. Again there could be some snow with that system on the western flank so the midlands/north midlands could be most at risk of a few cms from that.

km79

Fairly sure I seen a few flashes of lightening west of athenry
Yep
Just heard thunder

madmaggie

Mortelaro wrote: »

Quite a bit of disquiet on the radio news programmes today about the lack of information about potential disruption
No info on the large motorway signs for example
That's simply because met Éireann gave forecasts that lead everyone to expect mostly rain
So roads filled up with drivers unused to the conditions
I'd imagine nothing was gritted either for the same reason
It was a fail but an understandable one where mother nature trumped science

Snow was shown over Ireland for Sunday on the BBC forecast on either Thursday or Friday. I was waiting for Met Eireann to mention it.

highdef

madmaggie wrote: »

Snow was shown over Ireland for Sunday on the BBC forecast on either Thursday or Friday. I was waiting for Met Eireann to mention it.

ECM and Arpege also forecasted the snow, as well as the UK Met Office. I mentioned the snow as a risk fairly early on in this thread based on the cross model agreement of what are often three agencies with good track records, especially when it comes to snow forecasting.

Villain

Villain wrote: »

A dirty day ahead tomorrow, thankful the worst will stay out NorthWest, Sunday looks more interesting now, a surprise bit of white stuff maybe?

I think many people are missing what the models were showing days out, my quoted post above was on page one of this thread from Friday morning after looking at the weather models and the HARMONIE charts I saw Saturday supported that too.

The detail did suggest higher ground for most of it but 2pm Sunday it was very obvious from the reports coming from Kerry it wasn't going to be a high ground only event.

Gaoth Laidir

Sunday morning the Harmonie meteogram for Celbridge was showing rain, turning to sleet for a couple of hours in the afternoon. No snow.

Rebelbrowser

Villain wrote: »

I think many people are missing what the models were showing days out, my quoted post above was on page one of this thread from Friday morning after looking at the weather models and the HARMONIE charts I saw Saturday supported that too.

The detail did suggest higher ground for most of it but 2pm Sunday it was very obvious from the reports coming from Kerry it wasn't going to be a high ground only event.

I do think your last line is key. Models are just producing forecasts. Nothing like actual reported data. We really should pay more here to initial reports on here. On Sunday those initial reports showed lower temps than expected. That was crucial. So often for forecasted snow and wind events we see the opposite of that behaviour too (i.e. disapointing initial reports of higher than expected temps, lower wind, etc) and we ignore them because we prefer the forecasted outcome. Next time I'm going to trust more in what is happening outside our windows!