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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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myshirt

devlinio wrote: »

I won't be buying for a few years, but at what income level would you be granted a wage to mortgage salary exemption.

There's a number of factors, but broadly you could get it on as low as 60k single income, and 100k if there are two of you.

soirish

Another data point - the Baltic Dry index had a massive drop in Jan.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic

zl1whqvjs75cdy

soirish wrote: »

Another data point - the Baltic Dry index had a massive drop in Jan.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic

And how does this index traditionally track with Irish house prices?

maxsmum

We went to this house
https://www.daft.ie/12025710
last summer Iisted at 450k. I think there was an offer of 470ish in. That seemed fair- there were a few features which were unredeemable like walking straight into the house from the front door, small yard but i noticed it was withdrawn from my Daft favourites and thought 'wow they really should have taken 470k'....
It's now relisted at 520k.
So optimism prevails!

The_Conductor

soirish wrote: »

Another data point - the Baltic Dry index had a massive drop in Jan.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic

While they index is a good measure of broad economic activity and trends- its subject to wild swings. In January, for example, there were 4 separate days when it swung by over 3.5%- and on a monthly basis- it always tends to fall in January. Its looking unhealthy- certainly- but you have to be careful that you actually understand the statistics that you're dealing with.

In an Irish context- we tend to follow certain elements of the Baltic index in arrears- and certain features we tend to be harbingers of (such as the agricultural sectoral portions). Some economic commentators look at the Irish CSO 6 monthly stats in dread- as a harbinger of what is coming in their national statistics...........

The main point I'd note in the Baltic stats- is the extreme volatility being displayed- everyone is on edge.

esme95

Currently renting in Phibsborough through a notorious letting agent. Paying 1300 per month for a single bed box apartment with a kitchen, a bedroom and an ensuite. Only bills included are bins. When I moved in a month ago there was a room downstairs with three washing machines and three dryers; hasn't he gone and installed coin machines, where you pay a euro an hour to use each machine. On top of that, you only have about thirty seconds to put the washing into the machine before the money that you inserted becomes invalid and you have to put in more coins. Feel backed into a corner living here. Despise funding this type of greed, little choice though. Ireland 2019.

stateofflux

esme95 wrote: »

Currently renting in Phibsborough through a notorious letting agent. Paying 1300 per month for a single bed box apartment with a kitchen, a bedroom and an ensuite. Only bills included are bins. When I moved in a month ago there was a room downstairs with three washing machines and three dryers; hasn't he gone and installed coin machines, where you pay a euro an hour to use each machine. On top of that, you only have about thirty seconds to put the washing into the machine before the money that you inserted becomes invalid and you have to put in more coins. Feel backed into a corner living here. Despise funding this type of greed, little choice though. Ireland 2019.

thats a serious whack of money for a small one bed. may be worth considering a studio... you will get more sqft space for less as you are not paying for room separation. i pay just under 900 a month for a studio in ranelagh... it was 650 only 3 years ago.

esme95

stateofflux wrote: »

thats a serious whack of money for a small one bed. may be worth considering a studio... you will get more sqft space for less as you are not paying for room separation. i pay just under 900 a month for a studio in ranelagh... it was 650 only 3 years ago.

Yeah I may do. Was an impulsive decision moving in, was living with the parents but was faced with a serious commute so was desperate to find a place asap. Only starting off my career and can't put anything into savings so may be time to reconsider. Thanks for the advice.

[Deleted User]

maxsmum wrote: »

We went to this house
https://www.daft.ie/12025710
last summer Iisted at 450k. I think there was an offer of 470ish in. That seemed fair- there were a few features which were unredeemable like walking straight into the house from the front door, small yard but i noticed it was withdrawn from my Daft favourites and thought 'wow they really should have taken 470k'....
It's now relisted at 520k.
So optimism prevails!

Yea, I went to see it too, the offer was 475,000 when I was there & the owners had refused it!
I thought they were crazy at the time, I'd say the estate agent has a hard time with them!

beaz2018

maxsmum wrote: »

We went to this house
https://www.daft.ie/12025710
last summer Iisted at 450k. I think there was an offer of 470ish in. That seemed fair- there were a few features which were unredeemable like walking straight into the house from the front door, small yard but i noticed it was withdrawn from my Daft favourites and thought 'wow they really should have taken 470k'....
It's now relisted at 520k.
So optimism prevails!

Don’t think it’s fair to be posting people’s houses on here for discussion.

devlinio

beaz2018 wrote: »

Don’t think it’s fair to be posting people’s houses on here for discussion.

It's literally on Daft. If it's online, it's fair game.

[Deleted User]

beaz2018 wrote: »

Don’t think it’s fair to be posting people’s houses on here for discussion.

There's a whole thread on after hours posting people's houses!

[Deleted User]

maxsmum wrote: »

We went to this house
https://www.daft.ie/12025710
last summer Iisted at 450k. I think there was an offer of 470ish in. That seemed fair- there were a few features which were unredeemable like walking straight into the house from the front door, small yard but i noticed it was withdrawn from my Daft favourites and thought 'wow they really should have taken 470k'....
It's now relisted at 520k.
So optimism prevails!

You'd wonder if they were waiting/hoping for exceptions to kick in in January. That's an enormous price increase though, 450k initially to 520k. Hard to see how that is going to be achieved. If someone was willing to pay the higher price it would have sold for the higher price last surely.

ontheditch2

What would people say is the best month to buy? As in, people talk about exceptions kicking in, in January. Would that mean that people in January and February have more purchasing power and December have the least?

Bob24

ontheditch2 wrote: »

Would that mean that people in January and February have more purchasing power and December have the least?

You could more or less say that, so if you see something you like coming onto the market from September onwards it’s probably a good time to bid in terms of having less competition. Having said that the caveat is that the market gets more quiet at that time of the year so you will have less options.

If i had to pinpoint am “best time of the year” to view places and bid, I’d say August-November as exceptions start drying up, people who wanted to buy before kids are back to school are gone, and you still have some choice. From November onward the issue you will have is that almost nothing new will be added to the market.

But then again it doesn’t mean you should ignore other times as your dream place might not show up on the market in March!

q85dw7osi4lebg

The thing about exemptions is that agents and owners are well aware of them, so if the market is quiet in Nov / Dec they know that if they hang on until January that there's a better chance of getting a higher price.

ste

Personal opinion mirrors a lot what said here & media lately about Dublin. The new homes market is holding up & range 300-450k will continue to sell well. Above this up to 600k new homes will be higher income earners obviously but there's still numbers who can manage this. Dublin is paying high wages for boom industries. Above this price is people with wealth.

Used homes are under pressure because honestly most of them need minimum 50k put into them, most need the guts 100k and all the grief that comes with this (builders, time, etc)

FWIW I bought a few years ago in Dublin. I haven't made a big capital gain as I've put money into house that isn't going to be considered if was to sell. Each euro on modernization probably only adding 50% cost to resale value!

So for Dublin I see new homes static with prices, good quality/refurbished homes continue well, the rest of the used homes market weaker this year.

beaz2018

devlinio wrote: »

It's literally on Daft. If it's online, it's fair game.

There is no one discussing it on daft. Do you see the difference?

abcabc123123

maxsmum wrote: »

We went to this house
https://www.daft.ie/12025710
last summer Iisted at 450k. I think there was an offer of 470ish in. That seemed fair- there were a few features which were unredeemable like walking straight into the house from the front door, small yard but i noticed it was withdrawn from my Daft favourites and thought 'wow they really should have taken 470k'....
It's now relisted at 520k.
So optimism prevails!

I viewed it with a friend as well. We were more put off by the middle bedroom being like a jail cell due to the absence of any windows. Serious amount of work to fix that.

Cuddlesworth

beaz2018 wrote: »

There is no one discussing it on daft. Do you see the difference?

There are lots of sites that discuss property's for sale. The house, its details and pictures were placed into the public domain at the permission of the owner.

Bob24

beaz2018 wrote: »

There is no one discussing it on daft. Do you see the difference?

Strange way of looking at it: if you think it shouldn’t be discussed her because it’s not being discussed on daft, the exact same reasoning means you can’t post/discuss a link here to any webpage or newspaper article which doesn’t itself allow for discussion on the source link. Would kill half the activity on boards.

The key point that was made is that it is publicly available information and thus there is no problem discusssing it - and that makes more sense to me.

maxsmum

Sorry if I broke a rule by posting the link. TBH I think it's a perfect example of what everyone here is debating - what will the market be like in 2019 vs 2018? - here's a property that has gone up by 70k in asking from end 2018 to start of 2019. It will be interesting to see if they get it.
Also there is for sure a Daft thread here somewhere that makes fun of dodgy apartments for rent. I'm not making fun of anyone, and I do think it's a legitimate example of what the thread is about.

BBFAN

maxsmum wrote: »

Sorry if I broke a rule by posting the link. TBH I think it's a perfect example of what everyone here is debating - what will the market be like in 2019 vs 2018? - here's a property that has gone up by 70k in asking from end 2018 to start of 2019. It will be interesting to see if they get it.
Also there is for sure a Daft thread here somewhere that makes fun of dodgy apartments for rent. I'm not making fun of anyone, and I do think it's a legitimate example of what the thread is about.

Maybe someone bought it at the old price and is not trying to flip it?

May not be the same owners.

Thargor

maxsmum wrote: »

Sorry if I broke a rule by posting the link. TBH I think it's a perfect example of what everyone here is debating - what will the market be like in 2019 vs 2018? - here's a property that has gone up by 70k in asking from end 2018 to start of 2019. It will be interesting to see if they get it.
Also there is for sure a Daft thread here somewhere that makes fun of dodgy apartments for rent. I'm not making fun of anyone, and I do think it's a legitimate example of what the thread is about.

Only one person thinks its an issue, which it clearly isn't.

Sheeps

I'm really hoping Brexit is the shock to the system that the property market needs to start the downwards spiral.

flintash

Sheeps wrote: »

I'm really hoping Brexit is the shock to the system that the property market needs to start the downwards spiral.

be careful what you wish for...

Bob24

flintash wrote: »

be careful what you wish for...

Indeed ... the only way Brexit could cause our property market to crash would be by crashing our economy as a whole. Maybe a good thing for foreign vulture funds, but not for many Irish people (aside maybe for someone who has a good cash reserve, a protected job, and is a bit selfish).

Roberto_gas

Was waiting...will wait....keep accumulating cash meanwhile..

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Roberto_gas wrote: »

Was waiting...will wait....keep accumulating cash meanwhile..

Waiting for what precisely? The 50% drop in prices was a complete anomaly and will not happen again. Sitting on the sidelines and wishing for a massive crash is a pretty dick move to be honest. Your essentially hoping for financial ruin of the country and thousands of households so you personally can profit.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Roberto_gas wrote: »

Was waiting...will wait....keep accumulating cash meanwhile..

Enjoy paying that rent