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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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prawnsambo

I had thought at first that this proves that the agreement would get through the HoC without the backstop. But then I realised it proves nothing of the sort. Voting on a meaningless amendment that nobody realistically believes will achieve anything is not in the same league as voting for an agreement that they cannot unvote.

Itssoeasy

There is a certain Rolling Stones song in my head about getting what you need. The BBC radio talking heads later will be fun.

10000maniacs

eagle eye wrote: »

You are wrong if there is a hard border.

Its about perception. It's the events that lead to a hard border that count, not the hard border itself. The UK Parliament have today ripped up the Good Friday agreement. Any hard border that comes out of what happened today in Parliament is solely down to The Tories, The DUP and certain elements of the Labour party.
It would be political suicide for Fine Gael and the EU to renege on the Good Friday Agreement in the next 59 days.

Sam Russell

hotmail.com wrote: »

The Medieval practices within the so called debates is completely ridiculous. Referring to each as the Right honourable etc. Is this democracy?

Have you seen the Swiss guards at the Vatican? That is real medieval.

briany

Hurrache wrote: »

Ha ha
https://twitter.com/GuitarMoog/status/1090353396119494656?s=19

Like that scene in the Simpsons at the bachelor auction where Moe walks onto the stage, not even breaking stride, right into the rejects pen.

Capt'n Midnight

So May has a mandate because of 8 out of 650 MP's voted for instead of against her. Strong and stable.

And it's based on finding an alternative to a Backstop that only applies if no alternative is found.

And the EU rejected it before and after the vote.

Itssoeasy

I know that some amendments were binding and some weren't. Was the Brady amendment binding on the government ?

hotmail.com

Itssoeasy wrote:

I know that some amendments were binding and some weren't. Was the Brady amendment binding on the government ?

Non binding.

Only changes proposed the government can become law. Same system here.

Hurrache

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I know that some amendments were binding and some weren't. Was the Brady amendment binding on the government ?

They're using it to say to the EU that they have a mandate for a deal without the backstop, therefore give it to us.

Enzokk

hotmail.com wrote: »

The Medieval practices within the so called debates is completely ridiculous. Referring to each as the Right honourable etc. Is this democracy?

That is for members who is part of the Privy Council.

Privy Council of the UK

Christy42

eagle eye wrote: »

You are in for a big shock in the wake of innocent people getting killed. Minds will change very quickly if that happens.

The Brady amendment is a hard border in the north. Therefore if we don't want that and a trip back to paramilitary action on this island we have to oppose it. What is worse is that it would be the Irish government agreeing to a hard border.

They can also take a run and jump about "alternative" ideas to stop the border. They have none, it is two months out. Therefore there needs to be a backstop if we are serious about ensuring we don't return to violence in Northern Ireland.

J Mysterio

This headline says it all really

MPs vote to bin backstop - but spurn chances to take control and avert no deal

Just unbelievable to have voted down Cooper and Grieve amendments and pass Brady. This lot are absolutely deluded. Hard Brexit it is.

Enzokk

The EU has rejected May asking for new negotiations and we have as well it seems.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1090355988153155584

According to Laura Kuenssberg, "Irish govt reaction - 'The Withdrawal Agreement is not open for re-negotiation'"

So May will go back to Brussels to get nothing next week. In the mean time we are then one week closer to Brexit day and even if she gets to somehow get her deal passed with some magic dust, how will they have enough time to get it passed through parliament to make it law in the UK? They will need to ask for an extension of article 50 and I suppose the EU will grant it to them to get it passed.

FrancieBrady

Adam Boulton very upbeat about concessions from the EU but not on the legally binding Withdrawal Agreement. Surely the Backstop is part of the agreement, if it goes the whole thing goes?

Stacksofwacks

Cluelessness bordering on malice

J Mysterio

Christy42 wrote: »

They can also take a run and jump about "alternative" ideas to stop the border. They have none, it is two months out. Therefore there needs to be a backstop if we are serious about ensuring we don't return to violence in Northern Ireland.

On top of how brazen they are about setting the agenda re negotiations is that they are putting this to the EU again. 'We want alternative arrangements - what you got for us?'.

[Deleted User]

Irish Government response:

The withdrawal agreement is not open for renegotiation. The agreement is a carefully negotiated compromise, which balances the UK position on customs and the single market with avoiding a hard border and protecting the integrity of the EU customs union and single market. The best way to ensure an orderly withdrawal is to ratify this agreement.

We have consistently said that we want the closest possible future relationship between the EU and the UK. A change in the UK red lines could lead to a change in the political declaration on the framework for the future relationship, and a better overall outcome. We will continue our preparations for all outcomes, including for a no-deal scenario.

Sensible all round I think.

fash

Hurrache wrote: »

They're using it to say to the EU that they have a mandate for a deal without the backstop, therefore give it to us.

Really should counter with "time limit to backstop for GB" - as an appendix to WA, no need to change WA. Get her to go back to WM with that.

Hurrache

At last someone on UK TV has said that the UK government has just shown why there's even more need for a backstop, Dr Hannah White from the Institute of Government on Sky News.

Joe_ Public

Enzokk wrote: »

The EU has rejected May asking for new negotiations and we have as well it seems.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1090355988153155584

According to Laura Kuenssberg, "Irish govt reaction - 'The Withdrawal Agreement is not open for re-negotiation'"

So May will go back to Brussels to get nothing next week. In the mean time we are then one week closer to Brexit day and even if she gets to somehow get her deal passed with some magic dust, how will they have enough time to get it passed through parliament to make it law in the UK? They will need to ask for an extension of article 50 and I suppose the EU will grant it to them to get it passed.

Sounds like the most likely course of events to me. Bit of can kicking to be done yet.

Enzokk

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Adam Boulton very upbeat about concessions from the EU but not on the legally binding Withdrawal Agreement. Surely the Backstop is part of the agreement, if it goes the whole thing goes?

They will only get changes to the political declaration which is not a legal document. This is ridiculous now, May has spurned the chance she had to get a deal through with cross party support to try and keep her party united. While she is doing this she is increasing the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit.

Capt'n Midnight

hotmail.com wrote: »

The Medieval practices within the so called debates is completely ridiculous. Referring to each as the Right honourable etc. Is this democracy?

Look up maritime insurance contracts.

Words have meanings honed by hundreds of years and many trips to the law courts. Like Flotsam and Jetsam.

If it works it's OK

Hurrache

Reaction from the US was discussed earlier today on this thread. First one I've seen is in
https://twitter.com/RepBrendanBoyle/status/1090351323550236675?s=19

SimonTemplar

The British institutions loves their pomp and circumstance. Of all the things wrong with British politics today, pomp and circumstance is at the end of the list.

devnull

Unbelievable lines from Graham Brady on Sky News now, latest oddball claim from the Brexiteers seems to be that the EU have said that the backstop will only be used for a few weeks or a couple of months so there is no reason to not have an end time.

Also suggesting that the need for a backstop wasn't flagged up until late in the day and that the situation now will focus a few minds in the EU as to what is needed to get a deal over the line.

tuxy

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Look up maritime insurance contracts.

Words have meanings honed by hundreds of years and many trips to the law courts. Like Flotsam and Jetsam.

If it works it's OK

What would happen if they just refereed to each other as gentleman/woman and not the right honorable/the honorable gengleman/woman?

Frank Bullitt

Hurrache wrote: »

Reaction from the US was discussed earlier today on this thread. First one I've seen is in
https://twitter.com/RepBrendanBoyle/status/1090351323550236675?s=19

Makes a good point, if they leave on the whole WTO garbage, who would want to try and deal with a shower like this?

lawred2

Hurrache wrote: »

Reaction from the US was discussed earlier today on this thread. First one I've seen is in
https://twitter.com/RepBrendanBoyle/status/1090351323550236675?s=19

We might see the Irish American lobby come into play in the next few months..

Remember the US was going to be the land of milk and honey for these Brexiteers

Enzokk

devnull wrote: »

Unbelievable lines from Graham Brady on Sky News now, latest oddball claim from the Brexiteers seems to be that the EU have said that the backstop will only be used for a few weeks or a couple of months so there is no reason to not have an end time.

Also suggesting that the need for a backstop wasn't flagged up until late in the day and that the situation now will focus a few minds in the EU as to what is needed to get a deal over the line.

So who's fault is it that they weren't aware that the border will be an issue? On the first day they were told that three things will need to be sorted, finances and citizen rights and the Irish border. Did they think it was included for laughs and giggles?

Mr.Nice Guy

They sacrificed truth long ago. They know the media won't hold them to account so they'll say anything they want to drag it all out. That's their ultimate plan, to play for time.

https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1090193363649871872