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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Lemming

Havockk wrote: »

The NHS will be privatised faster than a... fast thing post brexit. Never going to survive disaster cap or the whim of US trade policy.

I wasn't commenting on that; the post I replied to was not about privatisation.

It remains to be seen, as much as certain elements of the Tories might like to fantasise about. Unless you've lived in the UK at all, or spent considerable time here at any rate, it's hard to convey just how well regarded (perhaps not the correct word to use but hey-ho) the NHS is as a national entity in the UK, and any time there's any mention of politicians trying to wield a knife to it, they frequently back down in the face of media outcries. That's not to say that in that given half a chance with everyone looking the other way that the Tories wouldn't sell the NHS along with the family jewels.

Havockk

Lemming wrote: »

I didn't comment on that.

It remains to be seen, as much as certain elements of the Tories might like to fantasise about. Unless you've lived in the UK at all, or spent considerable time here at any rate, it's hard to convey just how well regarded (perhaps not the correct word to use but hey-ho) the NHS is as a national entity in the UK, and any time there's any mention of politicians trying to wield a knife to it, they frequently back down in the face of media outcries. That's not to say that in that given half a chance with everyone looking the other way that the Tories wouldn't sell the NHS along with the family jewels.

Listen. I'm from the North, I totally agree with you, I have the utmost respect for the NHS and indeed its creator Nye Bevan. However the NHS has been under tremendous stress in recent years. Harsh cuts and closures. I would go as far as to say that a new Ireland should facilitate a new free at point of service NHS like system. And it's no secret that the Tories have been trying to kill it since Thatcher.

MPFGLB

Havockk wrote: »

The NHS will be privatised faster than a... fast thing post brexit. Never going to survive disaster cap or the whim of US trade policy.

Emmm No its not going to be privatised ...no politician in the UK who tries ever gets far and no government will dare..privatisation is trotted out again and again by those who want to make political gain

Of course Blair privatised delivery of some services but its tiny amounts and that is just some outpatients/community services offered by private firms like Virgin but its not privatisation of the service which still remains free at the point of access and many people dont seem to understand the difference . The NHS is about a million miles ahead of the Irish system and many other healthcare systems... for all its faults ..Its one of the main reasons why I wont retire to Ireland though Ireland has a better state pension

ancapailldorcha

MPFGLB wrote: »

Emmm No its not going to be privatised ...no politician in the UK who tries ever gets far and no government will dare..privatisation is trotted out again and again by those who want to make political gain

Of course Blair privatised delivery of some services but its tiny amounts and that is just some outpatients/community services offered by private firms like Virgin but its not privatisation of the service which still remains free at the point of access and many people dont seem to understand the difference . The NHS is about a million miles ahead of the Irish system and many other healthcare systems... for all its faults ..Its one of the main reasons why I wont retire to Ireland though Ireland has a better state pension

I'm not seeing it to be honest. I've found GPs here to be a ridiculously mixed bag. Never mind A&E waiting times.

Obviously anecdotal but the NHS stopped being the envy of the world some time ago. Nobody is going to be stupid enough to say it should be privatised. Instead, they'll just outsource more and more of it to the private sector.

The NHS needs to be overhauled to meet the needs of an ageing society. Telling a quarter of its staff they're not welcome in the country is a poor start.

MPFGLB

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm not seeing it to be honest. I've found GPs here to be a ridiculously mixed bag. Never mind A&E waiting times.

Obviously anecdotal but the NHS stopped being the envy of the world some time ago. Nobody is going to be stupid enough to say it should be privatised. Instead, they'll just outsource more and more of it to the private sector.

The NHS needs to be overhauled to meet the needs of an ageing society. Telling a quarter of its staff they're not welcome in the country is a poor start.

Can you explain where here is ?Do you live in the UK

BTW the only real privatisation of a few services was done by the Blair Government ..not the Tories

Also Ireland may want a NHS but it would need to up the funding and get the doctors on side ...As I recall there was alot of opposition to under 6 year olds getting free care from the medical profession...not sure what happened to that as I stopped following it

MPFGLB

BTW all healthcare systems need to be adjusted for aging populations and long term conditions...not just NHS ..all healthcare will be more expensive ...but that doesnt take away from the system being among the best

As for GPs ...mixed bags exist everywhere but at least in UK they are accountable.In Irealnd I have seen so many dreadful GPs who are not accountable to anyone
NHS waiting times have fallen fro95% to about 70% within 4 hours....compare to 2 days at Limerick RH

As I said it is miles ahead ...and I have worked in both Ireland and UK health services

J Mysterio

Here is Coveney on Marr, definitely worth a watch. He got quite emotional at times but spoke well. He was certainly forceful in getting some points across but largely delivered.

From 37:25

Strong media offensive from Ireland the last few days.

BlitzKrieg

The NHS to the uk is like the army to the US.

If there was anything that would turn the attitude against Brexit around it would be a clear shot across the bow of it being in risk. Which at the moment it hasnt really happened, it's been a lot of material around the NHS, nurses, medicine etc. But the NHS itself would continue. If the US had openly pinned a free trade agreement on access to UK healthcare as business then brexit would have died months ago.

instead we got buried in the same idea but the topics were cornish pastry, scottish whisky and chlorinated chickens.

It's one of those rare moments where you want trump to do what trump does best and post on twitter: " We are going to make the best deal for jobs, we will bring the best American healhcare to the UK"

It would sink Brexit in a week.

MPFGLB

J Mysterio wrote: »

Here is Coveney on Marr, definitely worth a watch. He got quite emotional at times but spoke well. He was certainly forceful in getting some points across but largely delivered.

From 37:25

Strong media offensive from Ireland the last few days.

Have to agree everytime i see the Irish politicians on TV in UK they seem so calm, intelligent relaxed with all their arguments thought through
UK politicians seem either dimwitted or scoundrels or both

I remember the morning of the referendum result coming on here and so many posters were hailing the result and hoping Ireland would do the same.
I pointed out at the time the problems that the result would cause for the pound, the border and Irish trade. I stop posting on politics after that as I got such a ribbing by those who thought the UK had done the best thing ever to vote leave and stick 2 fingers to the EU

wonder what happened to all those keyboard warriors

In fairness it wasnt hard for anyone with half a brain to see the big obstacle on the horizon..The NI border. Yet every politician in the UK either didn't see it or if they did they closed their eyes and hoped it would go away. Utter madness

MPFGLB

This is one of my favourite Brexit interviews

Enzokk

MPFGLB wrote: »

BTW all healthcare systems need to be adjusted for aging populations and long term conditions...not just NHS ..all healthcare will be more expensive ...but that doesnt take away from the system being among the best

As for GPs ...mixed bags exist everywhere but at least in UK they are accountable.In Irealnd I have seen so many dreadful GPs who are not accountable to anyone
NHS waiting times have fallen fro95% to about 70% within 4 hours....compare to 2 days at Limerick RH

As I said it is miles ahead ...and I have worked in both Ireland and UK health services

I have a couple of questions, where do you get the stats from for the waiting times? Seems like you are using the stat the government in the UK uses to assess NHS performance on patients being seen within 4 hours and I assume the same for Limerick Regional Hospital?

Also, if there is a complaint about a GP who is held responsible by whom in either country. What do you actually mean when you say that.

Seth Brundle

...and still the stupid interview questions keep coming...

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1089533497558122496?s=19

judeboy101

lawred2 wrote: »

You trotted that out yesterday and despite being rebutted as not true you've gone and done it again.

For stays less than 90 days - EU Nationals are free to enter and work in Switzerland. Anything longer requires a residence permit which is nothing remotely honerous as the many thousands of EU citizens living and working in Switzerland will attest to.

Anyway why would an EU member be offered such an arrangement?

They are not free to work in regions where unemployment is higher than Swiss average.

lawred2

MPFGLB wrote: »

This is one of my favourite Brexit interviews

Ouch... I know he doesn't suffer fools gladly but that's the most brutal I've seen him treat a caller.

Caller was a loon obviously

ancapailldorcha

MPFGLB wrote: »

Can you explain where here is ?Do you live in the UK

BTW the only real privatisation of a few services was done by the Blair Government ..not the Tories

Also Ireland may want a NHS but it would need to up the funding and get the doctors on side ...As I recall there was alot of opposition to under 6 year olds getting free care from the medical profession...not sure what happened to that as I stopped following it

I live in the UK.

The coalition introduced a reorganisation of the NHS in 2011 to create internal markets to make it easier to outsource the provision services to the private sector.

RobMc59

Anthracite wrote: »

The ROI is not subservient to England, because we are independent and have sovereignty. A Scottish person might be annoyed to have the fact that they are subservient to England pointed out, but it is a fact nonetheless.

Who mentioned Ireland being subservient?Certainly not me.I disagree with your opinion-if that was true then all members of the EU are subservient to the hierarchy in Brussels which isn't the case.

An Claidheamh

MPFGLB wrote: »

This is one of my favourite Brexit interviews

Himself, Channel 4 and Faisal Islam are like candles in the wind.

Of course, all they're doing is presenting facts.

An Claidheamh

downcow wrote: »

A wonderful rich diversity

Always found it so inward looking that British nationalist's definition of diversity is somebody from ... Wales.

One good thing from Brexit is that increased immigration from Britain's former colonies will dilute the white aggressive population - who don't suffer a complex towards foreigners.

Morons won't even see it coming.

EdgeCase

I'm just shocked that it's got to this level of stupid and I've a feeling were going to have to put up with a lot of Irish bashing and suggestions that the best solution is recolonization and so on over the next few weeks.

I don't see any likelihood of common sense prevailing. It definitely looks like over the cliff.

trellheim

I'm just shocked that it's got to this level of stupid

I fully expect the stupid to be jacked up to awesome proportions over the next four weeks as any possible thing gets trotted out

lawred2

trellheim wrote: »

I fully expect the stupid to be jacked up to awesome proportions over the next four weeks as any possible thing gets trotted out

I believe we can expect to hear more 'simple solutions' like the South rejoining the UK

You know 'common sense' solutions like that...

EdgeCase

I guess all we can really do is get the popcorn (from the EU single market of which we are still a member) and sit back on our CE approved sofas and watch, from a safe distance.

It's really at that level where you've told a toddler that the can't have ice cream until after their dinner and they've flown off info a rage.

The sane part of the UK seems to be burried under tabloids and online bubbles. I feel sorry very sorry for then, as ultimately they're going to be the ones who'll have the unenviable task of somehow digging the UK out of this mess again in the years ahead.

Enzokk

A new week brings new stories to follow. Firstly we have the votes on Tuesday to see what Parliament wants. It is possible that parliament will vote that the backstop needs to be time limited. Then Theresa May can go back to the EU to tell them to change the already agreed deal that she made and agreed to. This all to satisfy 10 DUP votes that she needs to keep her job.

UK to warn of Brexit backstop’s threat to Irish peace treaty

The Good Friday Agreement is about to be deployed in a last-ditch bid to keep Brexit on track.

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is working on an audacious plan to maneuver the EU into giving legally binding guarantees on the Irish border post Brexit that she hopes will persuade her Democratic Unionist Party backers to support her Brexit deal.

Her bold gambit is to use one of the EU's staunchest arguments — the need for an "all-weather" Northern Ireland backstop to preserve the Good Friday Agreement — against it. It follows accusations from DUP MPs and other leading unionists that the backstop itself contradicts the very historic peace agreement that it is designed to protect.

The article goes on to say that there is one paragraph that was deleted from the Withdrawal Agreement that was in the 2017 joint report in December and this is why the DUP is angry. If they can secure this paragraph back into the Withdrawal Agreement they see it as a way to get the DUP to support it.

MPs from the DUP and senior Northern Ireland experts advising ministers claim paragraph 50 of the draft backstop agreement first thrashed out in 2017 reflected core provisions of the Good Friday Agreement, which effectively gave Belfast a veto over further joint-working with the Republic of Ireland. However, this section was subsequently left out of the final Withdrawal Agreement, sparking fury in Belfast.

May is now planning to seek legally enforceable commitments from Brussels resurrecting paragraph 50 of the original backstop agreement, officials who spoke on condition of anonymity said. “Paragraph 50 needs to go back in,” said one senior U.K. official familiar with the prime minister’s thinking.

Let's have a look and see what that paragraph says:

50. In the absence of agreed solutions, as set out in the previous paragraph, the United Kingdom will ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, unless, consistent with the 1998 Agreement, the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly agree that distinct arrangements are appropriate for Northern Ireland. In all circumstances, the United Kingdom will continue to ensure the same unfettered access for Northern Ireland's businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/joint_report.pdf

I don't know if I agree with the plan of May though and the DUP that this is something for the EU. This is something for the UK government and will in fact only tie the UK to more EU regulations as a whole instead of only NI. Because I see nowhere in the paragraph where it mentions the EU and all of the responsibility is on the UK to ensure that if there is distinct arrangements needed for NI it is up to the UK to either ensure it is approved by the NI Assembly or the whole of the UK agrees to these arrangements.

At least that is my reading of it (non-legal very much man on the street).

FrancieBrady

Enzokk wrote: »

A new week brings new stories to follow. Firstly we have the votes on Tuesday to see what Parliament wants. It is possible that parliament will vote that the backstop needs to be time limited. Then Theresa May can go back to the EU to tell them to change the already agreed deal that she made and agreed to. This all to satisfy 10 DUP votes that she needs to keep her job.

UK to warn of Brexit backstop’s threat to Irish peace treaty

The article goes on to say that there is one paragraph that was deleted from the Withdrawal Agreement that was in the 2017 joint report in December and this is why the DUP is angry. If they can secure this paragraph back into the Withdrawal Agreement they see it as a way to get the DUP to support it.

Let's have a look and see what that paragraph says:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/joint_report.pdf

I don't know if I agree with the plan of May though and the DUP that this is something for the EU. This is something for the UK government and will in fact only tie the UK to more EU regulations as a whole instead of only NI. Because I see nowhere in the paragraph where it mentions the EU and all of the responsibility is on the UK to ensure that if there is distinct arrangements needed for NI it is up to the UK to either ensure it is approved by the NI Assembly or the whole of the UK agrees to these arrangements.

At least that is my reading of it (non-legal very much man on the street).

That reads to me as the DUP wanting to maintain a unionist block in Belfast.

Leroy42

Seth Brundle wrote: »

...and still the stupid interview questions keep coming...

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1089533497558122496?s=19

There, in one off the cuff interview, the Dutch PM ask the very question that no "get rid of the backstop" of "time limit the backstop" has been able to answer.

What happens when the time limit is reached? Say 5 years. If no deal is agreed within that timeframe will the UK put up a hard border, despite claiming that it won't?

And the 'we need a compromise' plea from the journalist was pretty quickly debunked by him as well by saying that it is already a compromise.

Professor Moriarty

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Himself, Channel 4 and Faisal Islam are like candles in the wind.

Of course, all they're doing is presenting facts.

By and large, I'd add Sky to your list also.

Enzokk

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That reads to me as the DUP wanting to maintain a unionist block in Belfast.

Yes it does, but two problems I see. One is that they will actually have to go back to open the Stormont which will not happen unless they compromise. So if there is no open Stormont then surely direct rule comes into play and Westminster can agree to the changes in the absence of a working Assembly.

And two, any changes that the UK wants NI to follow that needs an approved vote in Stormont that cannot be agreed by direct rule means that UK plans to move away from EU rules will be delayed. It doesn't mean that keeping to EU regulations to ensure that the GFA is not breached, to ensure cross border harmonization of Agriculture etc., will suddenly disappear.

So either way, as I see it, this actually would keep them tied to EU regulations for longer and seeing that they campaigned for leaving the EU this would just tie them to it longer.

That said I am sure I have it wrong though and it could be that this plan is the golden ticket the UK needs to get what they want from the EU.

murphaph

judeboy101 wrote: »

They are not free to work in regions where unemployment is higher than Swiss average.

Can you provide a link to this? German is fine.

Enzokk

Also, I am no fan of Corbyn but he has been vindicated not meeting May for "compromise talks" to help get a deal that is best for the UK. It is now obvious there was never going to be any listening to other parties and the plan is not to get Labour, SNP or Libdem support but to get her own MPs and the DUP to get the deal through. She is a liar who's words mean nothing.

lawred2

murphaph wrote: »

Can you provide a link to this? German is fine.

I think in those regions - Swiss applicants are given a week head start. If the role isn't filled within a week then all applicants are considered.

It's not as judeboy101 has claimed that "they are not free to work" - just that any newly advertised roles are only open to Swiss people living in that canton for the first week.