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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Strazdas

Infini wrote: »

It's this kind of idiocy from the UK that's going to be the end of them ultimately at this rate. A number of things I can see from all this is that if there's a Hard Brexit there's going to be riot's and serious violence once things go south. They ultimately towards coming up to that cliff edge are going to be forced to confront a cold hard truth and decide either to give in and accept May's deal or if it's still too unpalatable at that point cancel A50 and deal with the political fallout. If they fail to do either and go off the cliff it's likely within a few month's the country will be on it's knees economically.

Scotland is likely going to agitate rather forcefully for an independence referendum after all this as likely any trust in Westminster at this point will be destroyed and likely the scot's will want out to rejoin the EU as an independent republic.

As for Northern Ireland there's going to be serious local opposition up there noone want's the border back there though likely in the short to medium term there's likely to be a restriction or block on commercial vehicles and not people. Medium term its likely that either Westminster will be forced to agree to a deal including the current WA or holding a border poll to decide the future of the province and it will be very likely reunification will happen in all of this at least going by the border polls and the DUP can honestly shut up and like it IMO because this wouldn't have happened if they hadn't acted so stupid in all of this and pursued ideology before fact based policies.

They are definitely playing with fire here. At a minimum, they risk breaking up the UK and yet (unbelievably) they seem to think this would a price well worth paying in order to get their Brexit.

sandbelter

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

There's no requirement under WTO rules to maintain a hard border between countries. If you think there is then please cite one.
Tariffs can be dealt with separately. If Ireland and the UK are able to control VAT between the two countries then they can control tariffs. Goods can be inspected on loading, unloading or before either of these happen.

If I had a week I could Index them for you as the whole premise of GATT WTO is the recognition of borders and customs. But I do have a life!

This just the preface to technical page just from the WTO covering import licencing.

"Import licensing can be defined as administrative procedures requiring the submission of an application or other documentation (other than those required for customs purposes) to the relevant administrative body as a prior condition for importation of goods."...see customs....premise being a border between two custom zone.

https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/implic_e/implic_info_e.htm

i just to remind you that WTO and GATT only deal in a "hard border".....which to everyone else on the planet is simply "the border".

Here is Trade Facilitation...again more of those words "customs" and "border".

https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/brief_tradefa_e.htm.

Google the Vaalimaa (Finnish/Russian) border crossing and have a look to get an idea on what could be coming. Finland is a CU and EU member and Russia (and soon to be the UK) is neither.

Itssoeasy

I do find it slightly amusing that some Irish people think that the Irish government are being unreasonable in terms of Brexit. I should remind posters on this forum that Britain voted to leave the EU. The ROI didn't so any issues are the responsibility of Britain IMO.

fash

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

There's no requirement under WTO rules to maintain a hard border between countries. If you think there is then please cite one.
Tariffs can be dealt with separately. If Ireland and the UK are able to control VAT between the two countries then they can control tariffs. Goods can be inspected on loading, unloading or before either of these happen.

If there is a way of ensuring no hard border which doesn't involve legal alignment between NI and Ireland, then why don't you support the backstop?
With the backstop in place, all you have to do is show that your solution works - even if the EU were negotiating in bad faith you can just show this wonderful plan to the independent arbitration panel - who assuming you aren't talking nonsense will agree with you that the "unless and until" provision had been met and voila, no need for further alignment.

The only reason you could be against the backstop and think there is another way of avoiding a hard border is if you believe/know that there is no other way.

Itssoeasy

downcow wrote: »

Not that i want to defend the dupers. I think you’ll find that it’s because of Sinn Fein and their abstentionist policy

What has the Sinn Fein abstentionist in London have to do with the assembly in Belfast ? Nothing I think you'll find.

fash

WicklowTiger wrote: »

Challenge accepted! Well I think any gob****e, in Ireland at least, could do that….

Starting from the most obvious

1. Adoption of the Euro
2. Driving: conversion to KMs (makes sense even if the Imperial world thinks not)
3. Driving: NCT requirement (much safer cars)
4. Driving: penalty points system ( massive road deaths reduction)
5. Volumetric conversions (petrol, milk in litres, solid fuel in kgs, etc)
6. Food labelling standards
7. Customs & excise (blue lane at airports,ports)
8. Free movement, no visa requirement to go on holidays or business trips to the continent
9. Automatic free healthcare throughout the EU (EHIC card)
10. Single market for trade of goods and services

I had to go to the US for work last year. It really felt like a really foreign land, with the ESTA requirements (and paying for it!), immigration clearance, requirement to leave within a time frame, even not having a “valid zip code” checking into the hotel (used their own, never even noticed!)

I could literally move my family to France, Germany, Italy tomorrow permanently. Why would anyone walk away from that???

To add:
No roaming charges.
Harmonisation of phone chargers
Harmonisation of product standards - reduces costs for building etc.
The "Ryanair effect" on airplane ticket prices.
Non package holiday insurance.
The Erasmus program.
Equal treatment for university access as citizens of other EU MSs.
Reduction in bureaucracy as functions can be pooled - e.g. medicines
Additional strength in international negotiations.
Random: the plastic safety feature in plugs - the metal doesn't go all the way to the plug head any more
Improved health and safety standards, energy conservation, BERs for building, easy to read energy markings for appliances, car safety standards, historic building preservation,
Improved international protection of regional food names
Improved international patent protection,
Aldi and Lidl - as opposed to being limited to Tesco for competition in the food market,
Strong data protection- imagine what would happen if we left the UK and US bully us
Better competition law - e.g. preventing cartels providing different treatments of different countries,
International recognition of qualifications
International provision of services
International public procurement - opportunities and reduced tender prices.
A whole load of great free trade agreements around the world on great terms.
Greater selection of food at lower prices ( olive oil, fresh fruit and vegetables year round etc)
Non- bendy bananas (partly sarcasm as there is no EU rule preventing bendy bananas - although there is a rule about categorising bananas which includes categorising the bendiness of the banana. By having a harmonised standard in categorisation, the cost of bananas goes down. As a result one can choose higher quality bananas for a lower price - thus avoiding the more misshapen ones).
No need for permits for truck drivers. No limit on number of truck drivers who can travel around EU.
Working hour limitations for junior doctors.
...
One can keep going on in this all day.

Infini

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Sweet mother of .. :eek:

And I thought using Henry the Eight's laws to override the devolved parliaments was undemocratic.

It's this kind of idiocy from the UK that's going to be the end of them ultimately at this rate. A number of things I can see from all this is that if there's a Hard Brexit there's going to be riot's and serious violence once things go south. They ultimately towards coming up to that cliff edge are going to be forced to confront a cold hard truth and decide either to give in and accept May's deal or if it's still too unpalatable at that point cancel A50 and deal with the political fallout. If they fail to do either and go off the cliff it's likely within a few month's the country will be on it's knees economically.

Scotland is likely going to agitate rather forcefully for an independence referendum after all this as likely any trust in Westminster at this point will be destroyed and likely the scot's will want out to rejoin the EU as an independent republic.

As for Northern Ireland there's going to be serious local opposition up there noone want's the border back there though likely in the short to medium term there's likely to be a restriction or block on commercial vehicles and not people. Medium term its likely that either Westminster will be forced to agree to a deal including the current WA or holding a border poll to decide the future of the province and it will be very likely reunification will happen in all of this at least going by the border polls and the DUP can honestly shut up and like it IMO because this wouldn't have happened if they hadn't acted so stupid in all of this and pursued ideology before fact based policies.

fash

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

It's off the subject but you raised it. Using the words "Reproductive Rights" to mean killing unborn children is positively Orwellian. But then, it's not the right not to reproduce either because no-one's forcing you to have sex.

...Perhaps "reproductive sovereignty" and "taking back control of the process of reproduction" would be better? [/Off topic]

Borderhopper

WicklowTiger wrote: »

Challenge accepted! Well I think any gob****e, in Ireland at least, could do that….

Starting from the most obvious

1. Adoption of the Euro
2. Driving: conversion to KMs (makes sense even if the Imperial world thinks not)
3. Driving: NCT requirement (much safer cars)
4. Driving: penalty points system ( massive road deaths reduction)
5. Volumetric conversions (petrol, milk in litres, solid fuel in kgs, etc)
6. Food labelling standards
7. Customs & excise (blue lane at airports,ports)
8. Free movement, no visa requirement to go on holidays or business trips to the continent
9. Automatic free healthcare throughout the EU (EHIC card)
10. Single market for trade of goods and services

I had to go to the US for work last year. It really felt like a really foreign land, with the ESTA requirements (and paying for it!), immigration clearance, requirement to leave within a time frame, even not having a “valid zip code” checking into the hotel (used their own, never even noticed!)

I could literally move my family to France, Germany, Italy tomorrow permanently. Why would anyone walk away from that???

I would add the EU blood directive to that. It has vastly improved transfusion safety in the EU, including both Ireland and U.K.

Capt'n Midnight

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

That's when you go through manned posts.

So you advise that people should break the law ?

Capt'n Midnight

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Throwaway Sunday Times sidebar - "Britain is preparing for a state of emergency and to declare martial law in the event of disorder in a no-deal Brexit" :

http://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1089282356475760640

Sweet mother of .. :eek:

And I thought using Henry the Eight's laws to override the devolved parliaments was undemocratic.

Strazdas

EdgeCase wrote: »

Unfortunately, in the UK media bubble and online there's a lot of confident statements based on very little real world experience of actual customs borders.

Anyone who actually gives genuine accounts of what they're really like e.g. truckers who cross other EU external frontiers, people who regularly cross the US/Canadian border and so on are just dismissed as scaremongering because someone who's no experience of any of this but will make strident statements must be taken far more seriously.

Nothing worse than informed opinions getting in the way.

I've largely given up arguing at this stage. If they're going to walk off a cliff, what can any of us do?

I'd say just prepare for a hard Brexit, reduce your exposure to GBP, UK supply chains and UK investments, batten down the hatches and hope for the best.

It seems to me that it's a lost cause.

I agree that there is a real danger of No Deal. The Brexiteers simply cannot 'do' Brexit successfully but they and the 17m voters are too arrogant to admit the thing is a disaster and a failure and they will sooner crash the economy.

The one bit of hope I have is that they would be forced back to the negotiating table within days with their tail between the legs. This would presumably be the first point since June 23rd, 2016 where they admit they've messed up.

EdgeCase

murphaph wrote: »

Same. Had to surrender beer at a crossing between Vermont and Quebec. They always opened the boot there. I did cross once from Quebec into Maine without them looking in the car but there were a lot of questions that time instead. People don't realise how strict they are along that border.

Unfortunately, in the UK media bubble and online there's a lot of confident statements based on very little real world experience of actual customs borders.

Anyone who actually gives genuine accounts of what they're really like e.g. truckers who cross other EU external frontiers, people who regularly cross the US/Canadian border and so on are just dismissed as scaremongering because someone who's no experience of any of this but will make strident statements must be taken far more seriously.

Nothing worse than informed opinions getting in the way.

I've largely given up arguing at this stage. If they're going to walk off a cliff, what can any of us do?

I'd say just prepare for a hard Brexit, reduce your exposure to GBP, UK supply chains and UK investments, batten down the hatches and hope for the best.

It seems to me that it's a lost cause.

murphaph

EdgeCase wrote: »

Have you ever crossed the US-Canada border?

They charged me tax on my shopping going back into Canada! That's how strict it is.

Crossing by car a the Peace Arch near Vancouver can take up to 2 hours in a car - typically takes 45mins - 1 hour.

Same. Had to surrender beer at a crossing between Vermont and Quebec. They always opened the boot there. I did cross once from Quebec into Maine without them looking in the car but there were a lot of questions that time instead. People don't realise how strict they are along that border.

Capt'n Midnight

WicklowTiger wrote: »

I could literally move my family to France, Germany, Italy tomorrow permanently. Why would anyone walk away from that???

In the worst case, in Italy you'd have to register with the local town hall after three months.

Or cross a border and re-enter Italy to reset the clock and in Schengen land there's no border controls so it's an Irish solution to an Irish problem.

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

if you want to put a referendum to the people of NI as to whether we accept an agreement that contains the backstop then I’m ok with that.

:eek: You are? What's changed since yesterday?

downcow wrote: »

I don’t believe in referendums

downcow wrote: »

I don't think referendums are a good idea
...
A dictatorship with a good dictator would be my preferred method

Also ...

downcow wrote: »

Not that i want to defend the dupers. I think you’ll find that it’s because of Sinn Fein and their abstentionist policy

I think you'll find (if you read up on the subject) that the outline of a very workable WA was agreed back in Dec 2017, one that would probably have been finalised very quickly and got the necessary support in the HoC because it would have allowed a fairly clean GBrexit and left the Paddies to sort themselves out. Unfortunately, the Democratic Unionist Paddies went mental at the thought of being singled out for favourable treatment.

You cannot blame (abstentionist) Sinn Féin for demanding that the original NI-only backstop be extended to cover the whole of the UK when that was a condition laid down only and entirely by the DUP; and in so doing, forced Theresa May into an unwinnable situation with regards to the ERG & Co.

Capt'n Midnight

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

All countries have borders and most have trade agreements through the WTO if nothing else. But if you think that Canada and the USA, for example, check every shipment on their near 9000 km border to see if it complies with the NAFTA agreement then you're deluded.

Why do you guys keeps regurgitating this rubbish that's been debunked many times ???

Phytosanctions mean that 100% of agricultural machinery entering any NI port has to be inspected, any dirt and it's back on the next ferry.

This is what happens in Dover rignt now. if there is a hard Brexit it will have to happen to all foreign arrivals.

But any lorries arriving from a non-EU country, such as Switzerland, are subject to longer delays.

"If customs don't want to check anything, that would [still] delay the vehicle by about an hour or an hour and a half [while the driver waits for a decision]," Andrew Baxter, the managing director of the freight logistics company Europa Worldwide, told a House of Commons Committee last year.

"If customs wanted to do a documentary check, that could delay it by up to three hours, and if there was an inspection of the goods, that could delay it by up to five hours," he added.

Here's a list of the US-Canada crossings. Not a lot of them are there ? NI has ten times as many crossings in about a twentieth of the distance.

Oddly enough they also have space to list delays.
Green 0-30 minutes
Yellow 31 - 60 minutes = Customs delays of 30 minutes will bankrupt one in 10 firms, say bosses
Red over 60 minutes

WicklowTiger

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Let's ask you, name ten items of EU legislation that have altered Irish law to the benefit of your country.

Challenge accepted! Well I think any gob****e, in Ireland at least, could do that….

Starting from the most obvious

1. Adoption of the Euro
2. Driving: conversion to KMs (makes sense even if the Imperial world thinks not)
3. Driving: NCT requirement (much safer cars)
4. Driving: penalty points system ( massive road deaths reduction)
5. Volumetric conversions (petrol, milk in litres, solid fuel in kgs, etc)
6. Food labelling standards
7. Customs & excise (blue lane at airports,ports)
8. Free movement, no visa requirement to go on holidays or business trips to the continent
9. Automatic free healthcare throughout the EU (EHIC card)
10. Single market for trade of goods and services

I had to go to the US for work last year. It really felt like a really foreign land, with the ESTA requirements (and paying for it!), immigration clearance, requirement to leave within a time frame, even not having a “valid zip code” checking into the hotel (used their own, never even noticed!)

I could literally move my family to France, Germany, Italy tomorrow permanently. Why would anyone walk away from that???

EdgeCase

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

That's when you go through manned posts.

Nexus isn't even available all day it varies from 7:00am to 11:00pm and with significantly shorter hours at smaller crossings that offer it.

ThePanjandrum

EdgeCase wrote: »

Have you ever crossed the US-Canada border?

They charged me tax on my shopping going back into Canada! That's how strict it is.

Crossing by car a the Peace Arch near Vancouver can take up to 2 hours in a car.

That's when you go through manned posts.

An Ciarraioch

Throwaway Sunday Times sidebar - "Britain is preparing for a state of emergency and to declare martial law in the event of disorder in a no-deal Brexit" :

http://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1089282356475760640

ThePanjandrum

Nody wrote: »

Which point of loading/unloading exactly are you talking about for a truck driving over the Ireland/NI border? Once again you have a very strong tendency to ignore the details of your proposals exactly like the Brexiteers in the UK. What would stop me for example buying a truck load of cigarettes (reclaiming VAT in EU due to export to UK), drive over the border in NI and distribute it on the black market? Or load it in another truck and take it to UK mainland if there is no control at the border? Keeping in mind that if you remove any controls at the NI border you're also forced to remove them from any other border due to most favorable nation requirements.

What stops you driving the truck over to Northern Ireland or the British mainland now? Your fear of the tax authorities, that would still be there after Brexit and you are on the radar because you bought the goods in the first place. Also, you're not on the trusted carriers register so you may well be checked if you travel to the mainland or when your details are thrown up. People smuggle goods between the two countries now and they will in the future. It's nothing new.

As for the border checks, no, you don't. The WTO has no such rule. Prove me wrong, quote the rule in WTO documentation.

EdgeCase

Have you ever crossed the US-Canada border?

They charged me tax on my shopping going back into Canada! That's how strict it is.

Crossing by car a the Peace Arch near Vancouver can take up to 2 hours in a car - typically takes 45mins - 1 hour.

ThePanjandrum

Enzokk wrote: »

You honestly don't see a problem with Theresa May saying she will take the UK out of the single market and customs union so they can negotiate their own trade deals and then saying it still won't need a border?

Maybe you can give examples of any other two countries where there are no borders without a trade deal or customs union?

All countries have borders and most have trade agreements through the WTO if nothing else. But if you think that Canada and the USA, for example, check every shipment on their near 9000 km border to see if it complies with the NAFTA agreement then you're deluded. The same with Russia and Kazakhstan and their near 7000 km border.

May is not suggesting having no border because there is no border, but trans-border shipments do not need to be checked at the border and countries accept that practically smuggling is going to happen.

Bit cynical

Enzokk wrote: »

You have to wonder why we have had almost 18 months of negotiations over trying to keep the border open when in actual fact it is actually not mentioned in the GFA.

Do you think it is, in fact, mentioned?

I also wonder why May has been so vocal that she will not see regulation differences between the UK and NI, yet that is exactly what she agreed to in the WA and the backstop to ensure the border stays open. If it wasn't implied or needed surely the UK government would not have signed up to the backstop?

I don't think she did agree to regulatory differences between NI and UK. There is an interpretation that suggests she did, but the wording is ambiguous.

ThePanjandrum

Enzokk wrote: »

This is the James O'Brien test to Brexiters when there is talk about sovereignty. What laws from the EU would you change that has been "forced" onto the UK?

He says that because most people do not know what laws have been added to the legislative framework. Let's ask you, name ten items of EU legislation that have altered Irish law to the benefit of your country.

With O'Brien's question, I start with the principle of the supremacy of EU law over national law, continue with various treaties, go on to policies like the Common Agricultural and Common Fisheries Policy and then go through a sample of regulations, directives and decisions taken from the EU database together with ECJ decisions. Sometimes I add breaches of the law which the EU has allowed.

Amazingly there are very few questioners who know anything about EU laws themselves.

Enzokk

Bit cynical wrote: »

Could you quote the bit of the GFA text the UK would be in breach of if they adopted the Norway model? I don't think it is in Ireland's interest to hold them in breach in any case.

You have to wonder why we have had almost 18 months of negotiations over trying to keep the border open when in actual fact it is actually not mentioned in the GFA. I also wonder why May has been so vocal that she will not see regulation differences between the UK and NI, yet that is exactly what she agreed to in the WA and the backstop to ensure the border stays open. If it wasn't implied or needed surely the UK government would not have signed up to the backstop?

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I find it difficult to understand why, when Britain says it is leaving the EU but will not impose a hard border, it is breaching the GFA and endangering peace.

When Leo says that if Britain leaves he will enforce the border (or not, depending on which day it is) this is a principled move and nothing is said about the GFA and endangering peace.

You honestly don't see a problem with Theresa May saying she will take the UK out of the single market and customs union so they can negotiate their own trade deals and then saying it still won't need a border?

Maybe you can give examples of any other two countries where there are no borders without a trade deal or customs union?

Nody

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

There's no requirement under WTO rules to maintain a hard border between countries. If you think there is then please cite one.
Tariffs can be dealt with separately. If Ireland and the UK are able to control VAT between the two countries then they can control tariffs. Goods can be inspected on loading, unloading or before either of these happen.

Which point of loading/unloading exactly are you talking about for a truck driving over the Ireland/NI border? Once again you have a very strong tendency to ignore the details of your proposals exactly like the Brexiteers in the UK. What would stop me for example buying a truck load of cigarettes (reclaiming VAT in EU due to export to UK), drive over the border in NI and distribute it on the black market? Or load it in another truck and take it to UK mainland if there is no control at the border? Keeping in mind that if you remove any controls at the NI border you're also forced to remove them from any other border due to most favorable nation requirements.

Capt'n Midnight

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

There's no requirement under WTO rules to maintain a hard border between countries. If you think there is then please cite one.

Please tell us how you think the Most-favoured-nation rues would work if there isn't a border ?

Geuze

Christy42 wrote: »

The UK is lying when it says it won't impose a hard border (as is Leo by the way). It has to put one up. There seems to be a weird game of not admitting it going on. The UK is making decisions that will make both sides put up a hard border.

Yes.

From day 1 I was saying that once you leave a CU, you need a customs border.

But do customs checks require physical barriers on the actual border?