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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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ancapailldorcha

One-liners deleted.

Seth Brundle

Ford claiming that a no deal will cost heavily from a financial and employment perspective...
https://twitter.com/Doozy_45/status/1088431950648479744?s=19

Separately Sky appear to have held some kind of badly worded survey on how people's choice to leave.
On top of that, they erm to have messed up the results...
https://twitter.com/incrediblesie/status/1088506745712988160?s=19

An Ciarraioch

Heads of Bills for no-deal Brexit legislation published by the Government:

https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0124/1025281-plans-for-brexit/

Enzokk

trellheim wrote: »

the pol corrs are getting themselves worked up in a circle something awful .

1. The EU says "in the event of a no deal there will have to be a huge amount of work done to avoid a border " (said work implying the UK stays in the EU and so forth )

this leads to a truly silly logic jump from the poll corrs

2. "so why need the backstop at all ? Surely its not needed therefore "

AAAARGGGG

I hope that there are talks on the side to avoid a border in a no deal scenario. This would mean an Irish Sea border which the DUP will not like, but seeing as they didn't sign up to the GFA I think it is safe to assume they weren't going to like it either way.

eggman100 wrote: »

Either you weren't there or you have short memories. Nobody did as much for the remain campaign as Cameron and Osborne. They both campaigned their asses off telling us what terrible things would happen if we voted to leave

You have taken a break but for anyone else who might be thinking about this, here is an article that shows what steps were taken to avoid those predictions made by Cameron and Osborne and the Bank of England. In hindsight it would have been better to do nothing and let project fear play out, but they decided the prudent measures was the best option,

This is the Bank of England's all-action response to Brexit

FrancieBrady

Was out and about and heard a garbled RTE news item on the headphones about Juncker phoning Leo this evening...anyone know the story?

Strazdas

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Was out and about and heard a garbled RTE news item on the headphones about Juncker phoning Leo this evening...anyone know the story?

Here you go :

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1088506289339199492

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/sebastiankurz/status/1088522589172043776

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1088402063736913920

Hard not to notice the more forthright tone from EU leaders today.

FrancieBrady

Strazdas wrote: »

Here you go :

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1088506289339199492

Cheers. The message to the UK seems to be getting underlined at Davos today. Also good to hear Leo say that the UK will be asked to uphold their commitments to the GFA in the event of a crash out. Good to have that as a fallback.

Capt'n Midnight

Leroy42 wrote: »

And now we have Tory MP's calling for nationalisation of factories, which thought they were totally against and what they hate so much about Corbyn.

https://twitter.com/DCBMEP/status/1088348314930679809?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1088348314930679809&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Flive%2F2019%2Fjan%2F24%2Fbrexit-latest-news-developments-may-union-leaders-airbus-says-it-could-close-factories-in-the-uk-in-the-event-of-no-deal-politics-live

Yesterday we had JRM calling for the closing of parliament if a vote didn't go they way he liked, so sovereignty up to a point I suppose.

The the collective idea seems to be that democracy in the form of voting is actually undemocratic!

Comedy Gold

Airbus UK don't make aircraft. They make some wings and other bits.

If you nationalise the factory you will have just two potential customesr for wings that only fit on a certain brand, and Airbus won't be buying.

That just leaves Iran. And only during periods of sanctions when they don't have spare hard currency. And the US won't be happy with that.

#takebackcontrol

Developing new aircraft isn't cheap. Even Airbus and Boeing have gone to Bombardier and Embraer respectively rather than try to develop something smaller than a 737 or A319.

China is also ramping up aircraft technology so good luck on the open market. If you don't have good trade deals or huge government support then perhaps the only way into the market would be to buy Russian companies.

It's the Brexit , UK as a global trader on it's own myth in miniature.

Capt'n Midnight

marieholmfan wrote: »

The UK should make clear that declarations of economic war against a NUCLEAR power are very very unwise.

Did you forget the bit where it was the UK that triggered Article 50 ?

The French have nukes. And they don't need to get launch access from Washington.

Reductio ad absurdum beaks a lot when you try to use it on Brexit.

Capt'n Midnight

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Deliciously spun by the Telegraph opinion machine:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/23/dysons-move-shows-thatcherite-dream-free-market-brexit-dying/

(Emphasis mine)

So there you have it. Dyson isn't leaving Britain because of Brexit, it's because Brexit is unlikely to be Brexity enough. Singapore on Thames dashed, etc.

Singapore has a FTA with the EU

The UK might not.

Dyson is the guy who warned about Chinese students in the UK stealing secrets. There are lots of Chinese in Singapore, over three quarters of the population in fact.

Just another mé feiner

prawnsambo

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Singapore has a FTA with the EU

The UK might not.

Dyson is the guy who warned about Chinese students in the UK stealing secrets. There are lots of Chinese in Singapore, over three quarters of the population in fact.

Just another mé feiner

Yep. The same guy was warning the UK government that they'd better maintain farming subsidies after brexit. He is personally the biggest farmer in the UK. It would be an unfortunate side effect if the predicted collapse of farming after brexit came about.

Folkstonian

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Did you forget the bit where it was the UK that triggered Article 50 ?

The French have nukes. And they don't need to get launch access from Washington.

Reductio ad absurdum beaks a lot when you try to use it on Brexit.

Britain maintains an independent nuclear deterrent. It doesn’t rely on American GPS for targeting and doesn’t require any authorisation from America to be used. Why are you regurgitating a long disproved slur?

2ygb4cmqetsjhx

Surely people don't think Brexit brings us closer to the prospect of Nuclear war. There will be a deal. Or there will be no brexit.

prawnsambo

Folkstonian wrote: »

Britain maintains an independent nuclear deterrent. It doesn’t rely on American GPS for targeting and doesn’t require any authorisation from America to be used. Why are you regurgitating a long disproved slur?

It's kind of strange that you'd take issue with a technical aspect of what was a tongue in cheek riposte while sailing airily by the post that he replied to. Unless of course you think that threatening nuclear war on your nearest neighbours over a withdrawal agreement is an appropriate response.

EdgeCase

I'm not entirely sure why everyone in the British media took the advice of an overpriced vacuum cleaner company CEO instead of the rather more technically sound advice being given by countless economists.

Infini

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/sebastiankurz/status/1088522589172043776

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1088402063736913920

Hard not to notice the more forthright tone from EU leaders today.

To be honest it has to be made perfectly clear this is the only agreement on the table. If its unpalatable then the only sane choice is abandoning Brexit because a crashout will have severe political and economic consequences for the UK.

The simple truth is this is the endgame and the moment it genuinely looks like the UK will crash out is when well likely see the most severe consequences of this crystalise. I think the only reason we haven't seen a crash or drop in sterling at this point is the markets still think the UK isnt going to crash out and in fairness a deal or a50 cancellation is far more likely than a no deal crash.

Leroy42

Those statements fro Murz, Verhostadt etc are good. The BBC and other journos in the UK have been pushing the idea that the EU is starting to falter in its resolve in relation to the backstop.

I think, part of this is down to the EU being open to an extension of A50. This seems to being viewed as a climbdown an an invitation to reopen the WA, when I think as it is is the EU trying to give TM the room for the HoC to actually come to some agreement.

As Barnier said yesterday, simply voting against something doesn't stop the exit, it is the default, and thus the UK need actually come to a position.

EdgeCase

Folkstonian wrote: »

Britain maintains an independent nuclear deterrent. It doesn’t rely on American GPS for targeting and doesn’t require any authorisation from America to be used. Why are you regurgitating a long disproved slur?

Well, if you want to go down the route towards being a slightly more bonkers version of modern Russia, that's one way to do it.

Threaten nuclear war on NATO members (while being a member of NATO) and have politicians making ridiculous about nationalising parts of multinational companies.

That's precisely how to behave as a rogue state and drive every bit of investment out of your country.

It's 2019, not 1819!

These kinds of statements are utterly risible !

lawred2

Folkstonian wrote: »

Britain maintains an independent nuclear deterrent. It doesn’t rely on American GPS for targeting and doesn’t require any authorisation from America to be used. Why are you regurgitating a long disproved slur?

What has nuclear launch abilities got to with Brexit? Seriously?

People's livelihoods and citizen's rights are what matters... not some teenage fantasies about war games.

aindriu80

What do you make of the polish leader Mateusz Morawiecki having a go at Ireland :

https://www.independent.ie/business/gavin-mcloughlin-leo-varadkar-was-brutally-undercut-by-his-polish-counterpart-in-front-of-the-worlds-most-influential-people-37745441.html

That country is starting to stink a lot for me

Hurrache

Leroy42 wrote: »

Those statements fro Murz, Verhostadt etc are good. The BBC and other journos in the UK have been pushing the idea that the EU is starting to falter in its resolve in relation to the backstop

I watched the ex PM of Finland, now European Investment Bank VP, speak about it today. The video is 5 minutes long but worth a watch I think. No diplomatic speak here, straight talking and had no time for the idea that the EU should move on the backstop, he said the issue with May's WA being hammered so much is not because of the backstop. He believes that the hard brexiteers have realised the mess they got themselves into. If he's saying this, the EU negotiation team are obviously thinking it too.

https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1088394775558946816?s=19

EdgeCase

aindriu80 wrote: »

What do you make of the polish leader Mateusz Morawiecki having a go at Ireland :

https://www.independent.ie/business/gavin-mcloughlin-leo-varadkar-was-brutally-undercut-by-his-polish-counterpart-in-front-of-the-worlds-most-influential-people-37745441.html

That country is starting to stink a lot for me

I'd suggest they're probably annoyed that an Irish judge kicked them into touch over their courts reforms by referring an extradition case to the ECJ in a case that calls Poland's compliance with EU basic standards of democracy into question and then I would bring up their slight love affair with coal power stations and chopping down ancient forests, but I'm not a petty person so, I won't.

Folkstonian

EdgeCase wrote: »

Well, if you want to go down the route towards being a slightly more bonkers version of modern Russia, that's one way to do it.

Threaten nuclear war on NATO members (while being a member of NATO) and have politicians making ridiculous about nationalising parts of multinational companies.

That's precisely how to behave as a rogue state and drive every bit of investment out of your country.

It's 2019, not 1819!

These kinds of statements are utterly risible !

Not sure where I said I thought that it would be expedient or advantageous to declare nuclear war on our closest continental ‘neighbour’.

I simply corrected what read as a deliberate attempt to distort the truth and not a ‘tongue in cheek riposte’.

But anyway I’m getting quite fed up with the whole endeavour now. I’ve swung from being a remainer, to a Brexit supporter, back to a remainer, and back yet again to a Brexit supporter. I just want it to be over now and hope we salvage some kind of deal. It’s going to mean a few years of turbulence but that will just have to be negotiated.

I’m finding it ever harder to find the political dynamic of the European Union as agreeable prospect going forward. Geemany and France have ignited the afterburners on economic and military integration. Things that were written off as unhelpful and impossible scare stories just a few years ago are now being talked about by heads of state and willed on by influential MEPs.

I think we’ve got to a stage where there’s no going back, for anybody, and an extension of article 50 will be dreaded by all sides.

Leroy42

Yet another misleading and apparently anti-Irish re Brexit headline in the Indo.

I wonder what the thinking behind this agenda is? He wasn't undercut, Poland have a particular view and Ireland have another. It is very like an Express headline (Farage demolishes Remainers, TM teaches Corbyn a lesson, JRM makes a devastating point to prove remainers wrong) in its wording.

Clearly Ireland is under, and will continue to face increasing pressure, over our tax rates

downcow

Jmccoy1 wrote: »

So in effect they are proposing that the republic have a hard border with the rest of the EU. That would be disastrous for FDI and jobs within the republic. To hell with the north if that is the option being proposed.

I am finding it difficult to engage with this discussion. It seems people from ‘ireland’ can be as offensive as the wish towards Northern Ireland but dare us from the ‘north’ say a word that may be seen as disengeniois or we are reprimanded.
I know you guys are very frustrated about the direction of things but don’t shoot the messenger.
Tbh I am not rattled with being told to go to hell above or the other endless derogatory stuff about the north, our elected reps, our government, etc. But I think there needs to be a wee bit of openness to take it if you give it.
Guess that might be me in trouble again but when we are all gone you will be able to have nice discussions about how awful the brits are without anyone challenging the attitudes

Hurrache

aindriu80 wrote: »

What do you make of the polish leader Mateusz Morawiecki having a go at Ireland :

https://www.independent.ie/business/gavin-mcloughlin-leo-varadkar-was-brutally-undercut-by-his-polish-counterpart-in-front-of-the-worlds-most-influential-people-37745441.html

That country is starting to stink a lot for me

Pay no attention to what that rag says about anything. They've been wrong all week and are just looking for reasons to take a swipe at the government. I won't even click that link.

EdgeCase

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yet another misleading and apparently anti-Irish re Brexit headline in the Indo.

I wonder what the thinking behind this agenda is? He wasn't undercut, Poland have a particular view and Ireland have another. It is very like an Express headline (Farage demolishes Remainers, TM teaches Corbyn a lesson, JRM makes a devastating point to prove remainers wrong) in its wording.

Clearly Ireland is under, and will continue to face increasing pressure, over our tax rates

Interestingly it also parallels a narrative that the Daily Express was leading with earlier today, which interpreted it exactly the same way:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1076974/brexit-news-latest-deal-vote-theresa-may-no-deal-EU-UK

aindriu80

I guess your right EdgeCase. I think the brits are really egging them on though!

Hurrache

downcow wrote: »

I am finding it difficult to engage with this discussion. It seems people from ‘ireland’ can be as offensive as the wish towards Northern Ireland but dare us from the ‘north’ say a word that may be seen as disengeniois or we are reprimanded.
I know you guys are very frustrated about the direction of things but don’t shoot the messenger.
Tbh I am not rattled with being told to go to hell above or the other endless derogatory stuff about the north, our elected reps, our government, etc. But I think there needs to be a wee bit of openness to take it if you give it.
Guess that might be me in trouble again but when we are all gone you will be able to have nice discussions about how awful the brits are without anyone challenging the attitudes

Still waiting for the reasons you believe Brexit will be good for Northern Ireland and its people.