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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Russman

seamus wrote: »

No, they're not?

Our government have been playing it down because unlike Westminster we're intimately aware of the sensitivity about the border issue and that talking incessantly about a hard border will stir up the terrorists, and it will make it look like we're using a hard border as a bargaining chip or a threat.

When it's neither. It's off the table. We cannot accept any agreement which contains a provision for a hard border.

I'd agree with you, but if there's a no deal, we won't be able to accept or reject anything, its totally out of our control.
At this stage, while aware of the sensitivities around the border, it might be time to stop pandering to these sensitivities and begin to lay it out for anyone in denial that there will be a border if there's a no deal situation. It won't be Leo's fault, or the EU's fault, the blame is squarely with the UK.

Bob24

EdgeCase wrote: »

Personally, I think it's the end of the golden era of warm Anglo-Irish relations. We've basically got very little in common with a bunch of right wing English nationalists and the DUP.

That's the unfortunate reality of it.

Until there's a major shift in British politics we are really speaking to eachother from parallel universes.

I think it’s over the top to say that. Present disagreements don’t erase the common history, partly common culture, and critical trade relashionship. Plus the next step using a similar logic is that if a majority of Irish people don’t like Trump and the Republicans being in charge there we should also loosen up our relashionship with the US. It both cases I think it would be living too much in present obsessions and making too little case of both the past and the future.

Akrasia

EdgeCase wrote: »

All this talk of leaving with the UK is insane.!

You're right.

It was just a bit of kite flying by some gombeens in the UK. Nobody in their right mind would actually go along with it so it's not even worth talking about anymore.

oscarBravo

Bob24 wrote: »

...it would be fairly easy for the UK to take it easy for a while in terms of WTO-related checks, hence making it clear the the border is not being reinstated by the UK but by the EU and the republic.

I thought nobody was still peddling the Moggesque "we'll take back control of our borders by throwing our borders wide open" tripe. Looks like I was wrong.

prawnsambo

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Leo should drop the nuclear bomb

And make it very clear that if UK leaves with no deal
then Ireland will veto any trade deal with UK unless a border poll on reunification is held

Keep repeating that from loudspeakers, it also offers a clear way out of Brexit mess for Ireland and Nothern Ireland, and hell with the rest of them

That's a dangerous policy. It's involving ourselves in something that we've agreed is solely the prerogative of the people of NI. And I suspect would backfire on us spectacularly. Let the conditions come about without nay interference from us. There will be plenty of people north of the border making those calls when the time comes.

Akrasia

lawred2 wrote: »

what's in it for the Indo to pen such crap?

in the business section as well!

You're talking about it aren't you?

how many clicks did that headline get? I know I certainly read it this morning when I saw it front and centre on my email digest

Hurrache

VinLieger wrote: »

This exactly, its good to see them all knowing to work together in the best interests of the country and not use this to gain leverage or points over each other, unlike the eejits next door

Except for Lisa Chambers, who seems to be both ignorant of many of the facts, and just looks at ways to take a pop at FG. She's an amateur still playing political football at schools level.

Bob24

oscarBravo wrote: »

I thought nobody was still peddling the Moggesque "we'll take back control of our borders by throwing our borders wide open" tripe. Looks like I was wrong.

Be in denial and get ready to watch them doing what i said in case of a no deal.

In the grand scheme of things, playing the clock and forcing the republic to be first to reinstate a border is irrelevant to their future border and immigration policies.

prawnsambo

In other good news, Wetherspoons have reported lower than expected profits last year. Caused apparently by higher wage costs. Presumably because all their EU staff have left.

ilovesmybrick

Mogg is set to make a lunchtime speech calling for the ERG to do the feasible deal and that the backstop is the only absolute obstacle.(Guardian liveblog at 10am)

Akrasia

Bob24 wrote: »

A couple of months ago I was warning here of the danger of fully relying on the EU and the fact that the Irish border issue was just used a way to pressure the UK during deal talks, meaning we would lose EU support on that matter as soon as that pressure point was not required anymore. I remember saying that on the day of a no-deal brexit (it it happens) it wouldn’t be the UK but the Rebublic which would be pushed to reinstate border checks first, upon request of the EU.

This is what the EC has confirmed and our government is still in total denial:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/government-rejects-idea-hard-border-needed-in-no-deal-scenario-1.3767245

Time for them to get a grasp with reality: the pressure for us to comply with EU rules and start border checks would be unmanageable for ireland whereas it would be fairly easy for the UK to take it easy for a while in terms of WTO-related checks, hence making it clear the the border is not being reinstated by the UK but by the EU and the republic.

The Irish government know perfectly well that border checks would be required if there is customs and regulatory divergence between Ireland and NI.

The difference between a crash out scenario, and a last minute concession on the border, is that in the crash out scenario, the legal responsibility for breaching the GFA is 100% solely on the British as the Irish didn't change a single term that had been agreed to in 1998 relating to the border. The UK unilaterally defaulting on their commitments means they have breached an international peace treaty.

If Ireland 'conceeds' anything that results in a hard border in NI then the border will have been re-instated by agreement of both sides.

prawnsambo

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Mogg is set to make a lunchtime speech calling for the ERG to do the feasible deal and that the backstop is the only absolute obstacle.(Guardian liveblog at 10am)

Didn't expect him to blink first. But then I suppose, he's in the brexit at any cost camp and the nightmare scenario of the HoC voting to revoke the A50 notice is what's behind this.

LuckyLloyd

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I feel it's the opposite - the EU Commission and EU Leaders' are putting the prospect of a compromise with the backstop on the table. It'll never be acknowledged publicly and it will have to be something the Irish Government proposes.

The latest reports emerging are that the Irish Government is growing increasingly concerned that Ireland could be isolated outside of Europe alongside Britain if a hard border is not implemented on the island of Ireland in the event of a no deal scenario. It is being suggested that a customs hard border could be imposed at Calais and Rotterdam. This is a seriously worrying development for Ireland. The Taoiseach apparently briefed the leaders of the opposition parties on the matter this evening. It seems to me that the EU Commission could be about to force Ireland to compromise on the backstop in order to avoid us being isolated with Britain, or force us to implement a hard border ourselves.

The Irish Examiner are carrying a detailed story on it tomorrow.

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

More on the prospect of Ireland being isolated alongside Britain in the event of a no-deal scenario:

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1087861398586224640

The Irish Government would have little option but to implement a hard border if this came to pass.

This isn't news. FG have done the right thing up till now, saying they won't impose a border and keeping quiet about any preparations in that regard.

Now is the time for a choreographed pivot to what everyone knew was the reality all along: Ireland will have to operate a customs border or be locked out from the Single Market / Customs Union in some way via the channel.

We knew this all along, and we know what it is we'll be doing - we're manning a border.

Hurrache

Sammy Wilson of course blaming the Irish government for where the UK parliament is at with regards the WA. The moron also thinks a no deal will be good. Mairead McGuinness smacks him down.

He then talks about the British government throwing away any leverage they have, as if somehow the DUP aren't part of that same bloody government.

ilovesmybrick

prawnsambo wrote: »

Didn't expect him to blink first. But then I suppose, he's in the brexit at any cost camp and the nightmare scenario of the HoC voting to revoke the A50 notice is what's behind this.

According to the Guardian the speech was supposed to be under embargo but that wasn't made clear. I wonder if once the DUP see the leak there's not some frantic calls being made and a backslide in the speech.

Akrasia

Captain Obvious wrote: »

Our government are relying on the UK keeping it's promise. If that is the case they are not fit to govern. NI is part of the UK and the UK is leaving the EU. It's as simple as that. In the absence of a deal we either put a border between us and NI or us and the EU.

Our government absolutely are not relying on the UK keeping their promises. It's the exact opposite. That's why we're demanding a backstop. It's there as a fall back because we know that the UK will fail to provide for a frictionless border within a fixed timescale. We're putting a legal framework in place to ensure that the UK has to follow on it's commitments.

If the UK refuse to sign an agreement with the EU and crash out, thereby tearing up all their treaties, not only with Ireland, but also all their trading and cooperation arrangements with the entire rest of the world, then this isn't our fault. It's a moment of self destruction by the UK against itself.

Captain Obvious

Akrasia wrote: »

Our government absolutely are not relying on the UK keeping their promises. It's the exact opposite. That's why we're demanding a backstop. It's there as a fall back because we know that the UK will fail to provide for a frictionless border within a fixed timescale. We're putting a legal framework in place to ensure that the UK has to follow on it's commitments.

If the UK refuse to sign an agreement with the EU and crash out, thereby tearing up all their treaties, not only with Ireland, but also all their trading and cooperation arrangements with the entire rest of the world, then this isn't our fault. It's a moment of self destruction by the UK against itself.

Their public position is based on the promise made by May at the end of 2017 in relation to the backstop.

seamus

Russman wrote: »

I'd agree with you, but if there's a no deal, we won't be able to accept or reject anything, its totally out of our control.

As mentioned above though, it does give some more leverage in any future trade talks.

I'm not sure if a border poll is an appropriate toy to play with. However, given that a general election is likely inevitable after a no-deal, the DUP will be gone, and whoever is leading the UK at that stage will do whatever they can to secure a trade deal to save England.

So if we can force *those* talks to lead with the status of Northern Ireland, there's a good chance Westminster will happily place NI into a special little box with special free trade arrangements and a border down the Irish Sea. Because the only reason Westminster cares now is because the DUP have them by the short and curlies.

At this stage, while aware of the sensitivities around the border, it might be time to stop pandering to these sensitivities and begin to lay it out for anyone in denial that there will be a border if there's a no deal situation. It won't be Leo's fault, or the EU's fault, the blame is squarely with the UK.

I was going to say that we need to get the messaging right, but tbh at this stage everyone outside the UK knows that this is all the UK's mess, and anyone inside the UK will simply hear their media state that Ireland/the EU are being difficult.

So, you're right.

Akrasia

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Leo should drop the nuclear bomb

And make it very clear that if UK leaves with no deal
then Ireland will veto any trade deal with UK unless a border poll on reunification is held

Keep repeating that from loudspeakers, it also offers a clear way out of Brexit mess for Ireland and Nothern Ireland, and hell with the rest of them

That would be spun in the UK as Ireland trying to Annex NI, rather than an Irish reunification being a consequence of the UK's own decision to leave the EU.

Bob24

Akrasia wrote: »

The Irish government know perfectly well that border checks would be required if there is customs and regulatory divergence between Ireland and NI.

Why do we have government members saying something like “We are not going to be putting up border infrastructure” then, and pretending there is no chance of it happening?

Nowadays you have people firing at Theresa May for potentially going back on her promise not to reinstate a border. If you are correct, it means our governement is jumping on the same boat as her in terms making very important promises it knows doesn’t have full control over, which could come back to bite us.

Christy42

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I feel it's the opposite - the EU Commission and EU Leaders' are putting the prospect of a compromise with the backstop on the table. It'll never be acknowledged publicly and it will have to be something the Irish Government proposes.

The latest reports emerging are that the Irish Government is growing increasingly concerned that Ireland could be isolated outside of Europe alongside Britain if a hard border is not implemented on the island of Ireland in the event of a no deal scenario. It is being suggested that a customs hard border could be imposed at Calais and Rotterdam. This is a seriously worrying development for Ireland. The Taoiseach apparently briefed the leaders of the opposition parties on the matter this evening. It seems to me that the EU Commission could be about to force Ireland to compromise on the backstop in order to avoid us being isolated with Britain, or force us to implement a hard border ourselves.

The Irish Examiner are carrying a detailed story on it tomorrow.

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

More on the prospect of Ireland being isolated alongside Britain in the event of a no-deal scenario:

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1087861398586224640

The Irish Government would have little option but to implement a hard border if this came to pass.

This isn't news. FG have done the right thing up till now, saying they won't impose a border and keeping quiet about any preparations in that regard.

Now is the time for a choreographed pivot to what everyone knew was the reality all along: Ireland will have to operate a customs border or be locked out from the Single Market / Customs Union in some way via the channel.

We knew this all along, and we know what it is we'll be doing - we're manning a border.

The issue is doing it. It will be as tough for us as the Brits. I guess once a fair attempt is made and goods aren't coming through on a large scale we should be free of penalties.

Akrasia

Russman wrote: »

I'd agree with you, but if there's a no deal, we won't be able to accept or reject anything, its totally out of our control.
At this stage, while aware of the sensitivities around the border, it might be time to stop pandering to these sensitivities and begin to lay it out for anyone in denial that there will be a border if there's a no deal situation. It won't be Leo's fault, or the EU's fault, the blame is squarely with the UK.

It's mostly out of our control anyway. It's also out of the EU's control. It's all playing out in Westminster. I think it could even be out of May's control if Dominic Grieve's amendments pass on Tuesday.

I am fairly confident that a no deal scenario will be impossible before we get close to the 29th of March deadline. It will either be A50 extension or A50 withdrawal (there is no time for May to get her deal passed by that date anymore, and certainly not time for any new deal to get agreement in the EU.)

Zubeneschamali

Bob24 wrote: »

Why do we have government members saying something like “We are not going to be putting up border infrastructure” then, and pretending there is no chance of it happening?

Because it only happens if there is No Deal, and No Deal is a bluff by the Brits, they can't really do it.

OK, they could do it for maybe 2 months before they run out of food and medicine. Then they'll be back for talks, and item 1 will be... opening the border again.

Bob24

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Because it only happens if there is No Deal, and No Deal is a bluff by the Brits, they can't really do it.

OK, they could do it for maybe 2 months before they run out of food and medicine. Then they'll be back for talks, and item 1 will be... opening the border again.

So your view is that our government is deliberately lying when they say no hard border will be required in case of a no-deal Brexit, because they are betting on the fact they this scenario will never materialise?

Very risky bet if that’s what they are doing!

Sierra Oscar

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

This isn't news. FG have done the right thing up till now, saying they won't impose a border and keeping quiet about any preparations in that regard.

The EU Commission publicly declaring unequivocally that Ireland must impose a hard border or face exclusion from the Customs Union in the event of a no-deal is huge news. It's effectively the EU Commission putting a gun to the Irish Government's head and demanding that we make concessions on the backstop.

EU now looks set to ask Ireland to accept concessions

Akrasia

Bob24 wrote: »

Why do we have government members saying something like “We are not going to be putting up border infrastructure” then, and pretending there is no chance of it happening?

Nowadays you have people firing at Theresa May for potentially going back on her promise not to reinstate a border. If you are correct, it means our governement is jumping on the same boat as her in terms making very important promises it knows doesn’t have full control over, which could come back to bite us.

They say things like they have no plans to put up border infrastructure, but this is politician speak for 'it's not something we want to do but will do it if we are forced to'

Hurrache

Bob24 wrote: »

So your view is that our government is deliberately lying when they say no hard border will be required in case of a no-deal Brexit, because they are betting on the fact they this scenario will never materialise?

Very risky bet if that’s what they are doing!

It's all semantics. It'll be a border with the EU which will be required as the UK pulled out. Not because Ireland decided to put one there.

seamus

Bob24 wrote: »

So your view is that our government is deliberately lying when they say no hard border will be required in case of a no-deal Brexit, because they are betting on the fact they this scenario will never materialise?

Our government are not saying that no border will be required though.

The closest thing I could find was a statement by the Minister for Agriculture that he was not "countenancing" the erection of a hard border when it comes to his Brexit preparations.

In other words that he is so sure it will not come to that, that he is not factoring it into preparations.

It's subtle, but nobody is claiming that a hard border is not necessary. They're saying that they believe it won't come to that.

However, we do actually know that they are putting contingency plans in place, but they're just not talking about it. The party line is to show confidence in our neighbours, rather than admit that we're actively preparing for them to make a balls of this.

Akrasia

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The EU Commission publicly declaring unequivocally that Ireland must impose a hard border or face exclusion from the Customs Union in the event of a no-deal is huge news. It's effectively the EU Commission putting a gun to the Irish Government's head and demanding that we make concessions on the backstop.

EU now looks set to ask Ireland to accept concessions

It really isn't. It's the EU commission countering the absolute Bullsh1t from the brexiteers saying that there is no need for a border following a no deal scenario.

They kept quiet about it for years because they were working towards a deal. Now they're not working towards a deal anymore, they're working towards avoiding a no deal crash out.

Leroy42

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The EU Commission publicly declaring unequivocally that Ireland must impose a hard border or face exclusion from the Customs Union in the event of a no-deal is huge news. It's effectively the EU Commission putting a gun to the Irish Government's head and demanding that we make concessions on the backstop.

EU now looks set to ask Ireland to accept concessions

Sorry, but did you read the earlier posts on this very subject?

That article says no such thing. even without Brexit, if Ireland, or any country, refused to operate the agreed regulatory regimes they would be outside the CU. This is not news, this is what makes the EU what it is.