Alanna Thousands Valley wrote: » Fourier would seem to deny the law of large^ numbers if suggesting 90:10.
Realt Dearg Sec wrote: » Is this just a problem with the coin? I presume we are using the coin as a kind of easily visualisable image of a one or the other situation. If it was a random number generator that could send up a 1 or a 0 each time would that be closer to what we're describing as heads or tails?
Fourier wrote: » Alanna Thousands Valley wrote: » The coin (over 'large' datasets) does indeed average out very close to 50:50. Many (slow, boring) trials have already been done to support it such as: Trust me it's not as clear cut as you think. It's very hard to defend probability as anything other than a betting weight in our heads rather than something out there in the world. As I said, if you learn more about the coin, then conditioned on that you'd change it to 90:10, it's no longer 50:50. If you want I can discuss this on the maths forum, but if you want to read up on it I'd have a read of the works of Edwin Thompson Jaynes and Bruno de Finetti. Their works are the main reason mathematicians don't view probability the way you're talking about (known formally as Frequentism)
Alanna Thousands Valley wrote: » The coin (over 'large' datasets) does indeed average out very close to 50:50. Many (slow, boring) trials have already been done to support it such as:
Fourier wrote: » Trust me it's not as clear cut as you think. It's very hard to defend probability as anything other than a betting weight in our heads rather than something out there in the world. As I said, if you learn more about the coin, then conditioned on that you'd change it to 90:10, it's no longer 50:50.
Conchir wrote: » Freshwater pearl mussel is Ireland’s longest-lived animal, capable of living up to 130 years, and with the oldest confirmed example over 200 years (though not an Irish specimen).
Samir Refined Passover wrote: » Fr_Dougal wrote: » How? Can you give a little bit more info please? You cut a little square from the teabag paper, you use a tiny little piece of nail glue to stick it like a bandaid over the broken part of the nail, and you use a gentle file/buffer over it to blend it into the natural nail. Paint over it with a coat of two of base coat/top coat/colour
Fr_Dougal wrote: » How? Can you give a little bit more info please?
New Home wrote: »
Churchill left the army in 1936 and worked as a newspaper editor in Nairobi, Kenya, and as a male model.[14][unreliable source?] He used his archery and bagpipe talents to play a small role in the 1924 film, The Thief of Bagdad[15] and also appeared in the 1938 film, A Yank at Oxford.[14][unreliable source?] He took second place in the 1938 military piping competition at the Aldershot Tattoo.[14][unreliable source?] In 1939, he represented Great Britain at the World Archery Championships in Oslo
n May 1940, Churchill and some of his men ambushed a German patrol near L'Épinette (near Richebourg, Pas-de-Calais). Churchill gave the signal to attack by raising his claymore. Jack managed to start the ambush by killing one of the Germans with his longbow, proceeded by his men opening fire on the remaining Germans. After fighting at Dunkirk, he volunteered for the Commandos
Churchill was second in command of No. 3 Commando in Operation Archery, a raid on the German garrison at Vågsøy, Norway, on 27 December 1941.[19] As the ramps fell on the first landing craft, he leapt forward from his position playing "March of the Cameron Men"[20] on his bagpipes, before throwing a grenade and charging into battle. For his actions at Dunkirk and Vågsøy, Churchill received the Military Cross and Bar.
In July 1943, as commanding officer, he led 2 Commando from their landing site at Catania in Sicily with his trademark Scottish broadsword slung around his waist, a longbow and arrows around his neck and his bagpipes under his arm,[21] which he also did in the landings at Salerno. Leading 2 Commando, Churchill was ordered to capture a German observation post outside the town of Molina [it; nl], controlling a pass leading down to the Salerno beachhead.[22] With the help of a corporal, he infiltrated the town and captured the post, taking 42 prisoners including a mortar squad. Churchill led the men and prisoners back down the pass, with the wounded being carried on carts pushed by German prisoners. He commented that it was "an image from the Napoleonic Wars."[22] He received the Distinguished Service Order for leading this action at Salerno.[23] Churchill later walked back to the town to retrieve his sword, which he had lost in hand-to-hand combat with the German regiment. On his way there, he encountered a disoriented American patrol mistakenly walking towards enemy lines. When the NCO in command of the patrol refused to turn around, Churchill told them that he was going his own way and that he wouldn't come back for a "bloody third time"
The following morning, one flanking attack was launched by 43 Commando with Churchill leading the elements from 40 Commando. The Partisans remained at the landing area. Only Churchill and six others managed to reach the objective. A mortar shell killed or wounded everyone but Churchill, who was playing "Will Ye No Come Back Again?" on his pipes as the Germans advanced. He was knocked unconscious by grenades and captured.[25] He was later flown to Berlin for interrogation and then transferred to Sachsenhausen concentration camp.[26] In September 1944, Churchill and a Royal Air Force officer, Bertram James, crawled under the wire, through an abandoned drain, and attempted to walk to the Baltic coast. They were captured near the German coastal city of Rostock, a few kilometres from the sea. In late April 1945, Churchill and about 140 other prominent concentration camp inmates were transferred to Tyrol, guarded by SS troops.[27] A delegation of prisoners told senior German army officers they feared they would be executed. A German army unit commanded by Captain Wichard von Alvensleben moved in to protect the prisoners. Outnumbered, the SS guards moved out, leaving the prisoners behind.[27] The prisoners were released and, after the departure of the Germans, Churchill walked 150 kilometres (93 mi) to Verona, Italy, where he met an American armoured unit
Australia and surfing In later years, Churchill served as an instructor at the land-air warfare school in Australia, where he became a passionate devotee of the surfboard. Back in Britain, he was the first man to ride the River Severn's five-foot tidal bore and designed his own board.[26] During this time back in Britain, he worked at a desk job in the army.[14][unreliable source?]Retirement (1959–1996) He retired from the army in 1959, with two awards of the Distinguished Service Order. In retirement, his eccentricity continued. He startled train conductors and passengers by throwing his briefcase out of the train window each day on the ride home. He later explained that he was tossing his case into his own back garden so he would not have to carry it from the station.[26] He also enjoyed sailing coal-fired ships on the Thames and playing with radio-controlled model warships
Ipso wrote: » Sometimes I wonder about the mind set of the people who wrote this kind of stuff. You worship a god who created the entire universe; from the nebulae, black holes, raging waterfalls to humming bird wings and all the microscopic detail but somehow he gets upset by a dog or beard length or mixing fabrics of clothing.
Conchir wrote: » Yep, plenty of these. Another is Margaritifera margaritifera, the freshwater pearl mussel.
Fourier wrote: » So the 50:50 has nothing to do with the coin, just your betting confidence of it. So there's no reason the coin would balance out tosses to ensure a 50:50 ratio.
Chancer3001 wrote: » I understand but don't get the probability thingy some times. Like say for example heads or tails the chance is 50 50. Toss it 10 times , 5ish should be heads. 5ish tails. 100 times 50 heads ish , 50 tails ish. So say for example I'm doing 100 tosses , and I'm 60 in. And 58 have been heads..only 2 tails. SURELY you'd be expecting a few more tails to come up soon to balance it out over the 100. But no. There's still the same chance that heads will come up
quickbeam wrote: » Another one is Benford's Law. You'd think that of all the numbers in the world, they'd all have an equal likelihood of appearing in everyday life. Eg, the 10,000 numbers between 1 and 10,000 should all have a 1 in 10,000 chance of appearing, ie the number 1,899 would have the same chance as the number 8,199 (say). But no, Benford's Law states that numbers beginning with lower digits have a far higher chance of appearing than those of lower digits. 1,899 more often than 8,199. But 18,990 also more often than 8,199.
Alanna Thousands Valley wrote: » On the same theme, in the e.g. Euromillions lotto draws, it's logical to say every ball has the same equal chance to be drawn. It's generally hard to argue any differently. On the other hand, the 'Law of Large Numbers' may carry some influence on selections (P<0.5), which is precisely why I choose number 33 as a single hotpick (10/1) item for Tuesdays draw...
Chancer3001 wrote: » I understand but don't get the probability thingy some times. Like say for example heads or tails the chance is 50 50. Toss it 10 times , 5ish should be heads. 5ish tails.
Chancer3001 wrote: » So say for example I'm doing 100 tosses , and I'm 60 in. And 58 have been heads..only 2 tails. SURELY you'd be expecting a few more tails to come up soon to balance it out over the 100. But no. There's still the same chance that heads will come up
quickbeam wrote: » I love counter-intuitive maths stuff like that. Like the Monty Hall problem which never intuitively seems like changing your mind doubles your chances of winning, but the maths proves it does.
