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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Enzokk

J Mysterio wrote: »

Guardian headline for tomorrow is 'Corbyn faces revolts if he looks for second referendum'.

That is very confusing indeed.

I am confused as well. Labour has been in favour of a soft Brexit and most of their MPs are against leaving, yet they don't want to campaign for a second referendum? I have to wonder whether there is some politicking going on in the party in favour of Corbyn and these threats are only there to enhance Corbyn's position. Either that or he is terrible at getting the party behind the conference position. How does he think he will command government of he cannot get them to follow the Labour party position as per the conference?

Capt'n Midnight

May Delays Brexit Vote Until 30th Of February

“Rather Her Than Me” Insists Cameron Sipping Cocktail On Beach

This one is worth a read

Rees Mogg Straps Steam Powered Explosive To Chest, Demands Worst Brexit Possible

Waterford Whispers is more factual than some of the UK media at this stage.

J Mysterio

Bit cynical wrote: »

Why is it confusing may I ask?

I thought that much of Labour wanted a second referendum?

Did I get that wrong? I thought Corbyn himself did not want a referendum.

Bit cynical

Basically, he would lose Leave voting labour constituencies.

J Mysterio

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

May Delays Brexit Vote Until 30th Of February

“Rather Her Than Me” Insists Cameron Sipping Cocktail On Beach

This one is worth a read
Rees Mogg Straps Steam Powered Explosive To Chest, Demands Worst Brexit Possible

Waterford Whispers is more factual than some of the UK media at this stage.

Im not sure WW is kosher here but boy did this make me laugh:

"Cameron, famous for allegedly fucķing a dead pig and then fucķing over a dead empire by forcing a referendum on membership of the EU"

Capt'n Midnight

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Polls of UK opinion at the minute would have to be taken with a massive pinch of salt.
The government is confused, as is parliament..what must the electorate be like.

The point is that even if the Lib Dems treble the % they got last time out they'll still be ignored unless there is a hung parliament.

Or in other words if there is a GE it won't change much.
A pro-Brexit party with red lines and demands for rainbow unicorns will be in power.

And that's the best option, it's more likely to be a weak government needing to placate the extremists or worse a supply and confidence deal with the DUP or SNP or even UKIP who have a very clear agenda.

J Mysterio

Bit cynical wrote: »

Basically, he would lose Leave voting labour constituencies.

Yes, I guess that's fair enough, but that would br the voter level or 'the grassroots' whereas the Guardian seem to be implying that MPs from the parliamentary party are threatening resignations. I thought most Labour MPs back the second vote and Corbyn had no interest. So, seems bizarre.

Bit cynical

J Mysterio wrote: »

I thought that much of Labour wanted a second referendum?

Did I get that wrong? I thought Corbyn himself did not want a referendum.

Corbyn doesn't particularly want a referendum although he is at pains not to rule one out in order to keep campaigners on side.

But any MP from a Leave constituency will be dead set against a referendum as no one who voted Leave will vote for the party that does not respect that vote.

As I see it, it is not simply a case of numbers. The vehemence of constituents is also an issue. Not holding a referendum may disappoint some Remain voters but many of them will also accept that a referendum was already held but they were on the wrong side of it.

On the other hand, Leave voters will be actively angry if their vote is not respected and will change their party voting accordingly. The other party will mop them up.

Capt'n Midnight

J Mysterio wrote: »

Im not sure WW is kosher here

The May kicking the can one got me, because that is exactly what she's doing.

And that disaster capitalist would love a fire sale.

And the UK media have been projecting wishful thinking as news.

FrancieBrady

The View on BBC atm is very good and interesting.

Enzokk

Bit cynical wrote: »

Basically, he would lose Leave voting labour constituencies.

He is going to lose Sunderland and Newcastle to the Tories?

J Mysterio wrote: »

Yes, I guess that's fair enough, but that would br the voter level or 'the grassroots' whereas the Guardian seem to be implying that MPs from the parliamentary party are threatening resignations. I thought most Labour MPs back the second vote and Corbyn had no interest. So, seems bizarre.

I really don't know how they get these numbers, but I am not close to the party though. There seems to be a disconnect between what Labour members want and what the party wants according to the polls as well. This could cause a split among Labour much sooner than the Tories, seeing as they seem to me to put party ahead of country much more easily.

J Mysterio

Enzokk wrote: »

I really don't know how they get these numbers, but I am not close to the party though. There seems to be a disconnect between what Labour members want and what the party wants according to the polls as well. This could cause a split among Labour much sooner than the Tories, seeing as they seem to me to put party ahead of country much more easily.

Same as the Tories. Both parties split and divided. May aswell have an MP swap or a session of musical chairs in the HOC and only stop the music when everyone is sitting on the right side. Either that or they can have 1 new party from each of Labour and Tories and 1 for the ERG. At least there would be some options and more clearly defined positions.

Junkyard Tom

Kate Hoey on 'The View' saying that a no-deal Brexit will be much worse for Ireland than the north.

They need to have someone who's qualified on EU matters stand next to people being interviewed on Brexit with a big vuvuzela that gets blasted into their ear when they talk shit.

wiggle16

J Mysterio wrote: »

Guardian headline for tomorrow is 'Corbyn faces revolts if he looks for second referendum'.

That is very confusing indeed.

It is confusing, but then the whole thing is.

If Corbyn calls for a second referendum (which he should) he risks losing his pro-Leave northern English voter base.

It's become frustratingly clear that all he wants are the keys to number 10, he won't risk losing a single vote even if that means going along with the hard Brexit suicide pact....

bilston

J Mysterio wrote: »

Guardian headline for tomorrow is 'Corbyn faces revolts if he looks for second referendum'.

That is very confusing indeed.

Revolt from who?

I thought most Labour voters and MPs wanted a second referendum?

josip

bilston wrote: »

Revolt from who?

I thought most Labour voters and MPs wanted a second referendum?

The article I read was that the revolt would be from his front bench.

bob mcbob

The Telegraph headline

Cabinet ministers warn Theresa May she will face mass resignations unless she allows MPs to stop no-deal Brexit.

Enzokk

J Mysterio wrote: »

Same as the Tories. Both parties split and divided. May aswell have an MP swap or a session of musical chairs in the HOC and only stop the music when everyone is sitting on the right side. Either that or they can have 1 new party from each of Labour and Tories and 1 for the ERG. At least there would be some options and more clearly defined positions.

I believe that most Labour MPs are remainers. I know a lot of them are in areas that voted to leave. But as David Lammy said he was elected to represent the best interests of his voters even when that was against what they were telling him.

hotmail.com

bob mcbob wrote:

Cabinet ministers warn Theresa May she will face mass resignations unless she allows MPs to stop no-deal Brexit.

Very weary of these threats at this stage. Liam Fox is going no where.

bob mcbob

hotmail.com wrote: »

Very weary of these threats at this stage. Liam Fox is going no where.

This is not Brexiteers, this is the remainers.

Strazdas

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The View on BBC atm is very good and interesting.

Wait until you see Question Time......audience full of No Deal types and hardline Brexiteers (!)

LeinsterDub

So in summary if May does anything people will quit? If Corbyn does anything people will quit?

Enzokk

Strazdas wrote: »

Wait until you see Question Time......audience full of No Deal types and hardline Brexiteers (!)

Its grim viewing. You have to hope they are selecting their audience otherwise the UK education system has a lot to answer for. This is Derby, where Rolls Royce builds their aircraft engines for Airbus. They are clamoring to leave without a deal it seems.

10000maniacs

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

News dump.

Brexit means the UK gov't isn't planning to keep the lights on.
All but one of the UK's existing nuclear power plants are due to close by 2030. Only one of the six new plants is going ahead.
A Hard Brexit means importing electricity may have extra costs.

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-46896530
A reminder that a Hard Brexit means things like data transfers get tricky.

Housing market outlook worst 'for 20 years' Uncertainty.
Property values also affect the balance sheet. Enough of a fall and some companies would become insolvent.

Make no mistake, anything other than calling off the whole thing means years more haggling and presumably humiliation.
Ministers must clarify the UK's post-Brexit relationship with Switzerland and up to 70 non-EU countries,

The price of renewable energy has halved in the last 10 years. We should invest heavily in wind farms.

Shelga

90% of the Question Time audience in Derby seem to want to leave with no deal. That stain on humanity Isabel Oakeshott is playing to her audience.

Absolute insanity. It is like a cult. Please, let them leave with no deal and see them still try to blame the EU for absolutely everything from the NHS to housing in three years time.

bob mcbob

LeinsterDub wrote: »

So in summary if May does anything people will quit? If Corbyn does anything people will quit?

Yup so lets see where we stand -
- 2nd Referendum - rejected by Corbyn and May
- General Election - rejected by May
- No deal - rejected by Corbyn and enough Tories to stop it
- May's Compromise - rejected by Corbyn and enough Tories to stop it

That only leaves a type Norway option - supported by opposition parties and probably enough Tories to allow it to pass

Enzokk

Shelga wrote: »

90% of the Question Time audience in Derby seem to want to leave with no deal. That stain on humanity Isabel Oakeshott is playing to her audience.

Absolute insanity. It is like a cult. Please, let them leave with no deal and see them still try to blame the EU for absolutely everything from the NHS to housing in three years time.

Just wait, all the greatest hits will be there.

Strazdas

Enzokk wrote: »

Its grim viewing. You have to hope they are selecting their audience otherwise the UK education system has a lot to answer for. This is Derby, where Rolls Royce builds their aircraft engines for Airbus. They are clamoring to leave without a deal it seems.

The UK is screwed. Even if this audience represents say 30% or 40% of the UK, it spells major trouble ahead.

sandbelter

bob mcbob wrote: »

Yup so lets see where we stand -
- 2nd Referendum - rejected by Corbyn and May
- General Election - rejected by May
- No deal - rejected by Corbyn and enough Tories to stop it
- May's Compromise - rejected by Corbyn and enough Tories to stop it

That only leaves a type Norway option - supported by opposition parties and probably enough Tories to allow it to pass

Or a by default "no deal."

josip

Can someone please explain what the Norway-type option is?
Does that mean the UK would have to be a member of EFTA?
I thought Norway said they would veto that?