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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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prawnsambo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Out of interest, and I don't know the answer to this at all, what is the situation with Ireland and the Isle of Man with regard to passports and tariffs.

The IoM is an associate member of the EU by virtue of the UK's membership. That will end post brexit. The CTA applies as far as I know.

blanch152

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Out of interest, and I don't know the answer to this at all, what is the situation with Ireland and the Isle of Man with regard to passports and tariffs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/External_relations_of_the_Isle_of_Man#European_Union

Effectively, the Isle of Man is a vassal state of the EU, through the UK. The UK could opt for the same status.

Bit cynical

lawred2 wrote: »

Curbing uncontrolled EU migration from the Eastern blocs was one of the core tenets of the brexit campaign...

How is that achievable with an open land border between the EU and the UK?

I think a lot of it will be reduced due to the removal of the automatic right to work for new EU citizens entering the UK. There will probably be a fairly liberal approach anyway to non-working visitors from the EU, but requirements placed on those seeking to work there (except from Ireland) so a porous border with the Republic is not as big an issue as one might imagine. Easier to take a job in, say, Germany than be an illegal worker in the UK. The bigger complaint is that low wage employers can no longer find the staff they wanted from Eastern Europe.

This is good for Ireland as we don't want a hard border either.

Water John

May semms to be saying any ould s***e that might sway any voters depending which group she appealing to at any one time.

cml387

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

I presume it and the Channel Islands are covered by the CTA.

Yes, travel to Fraggle Rock as well as Jersey and Gibraltar would qualify as CTA for Irish travellers.

A Dub in Glasgo

J Mysterio wrote: »

Wow! What a headline in the Irish Times:

No-deal Brexit would make a united Ireland more likely – May
'British prime minister asks MPs to take a second look at her Brexit deal'

May precipitating the break up of the EU now in the 11th hour. She really is cretinous, but music to the ears of republicans.

She also saying Scotland leaving 'our precious union' is more likely... she is a appealing to the unionist crowd (not just NI)

An Ciarraioch

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Out of interest, and I don't know the answer to this at all, what is the situation with Ireland and the Isle of Man with regard to passports and tariffs.

It and the Channel Islands are covered by the CTA:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Travel_Area

Capt'n Midnight

Headshot wrote: »

What time is the vote tomorrow?

Late, there's a load of amendments to get through ranging from the absurd to the ridiculous depending on your viewpoint because all sides are trying to undermine May's position.

Backstop, divorce bill, rejecting NoDeal , public vote, take your pick.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46507010

The amendments vary in their potential impact on the proposed deal. Some seek to make relatively small tweaks, others to scupper Mrs May's plan entirely.

Amendments are suggested by MPs and the most important ones, in the eyes of the Commons Speaker, John Bercow, are selected for voting on by all MPs. The votes will be just before the overall "meaningful" vote on the prime minister's deal.

....
Labour MP Hilary Benn's amendment

Declines approval of the deal and "rejects" no deal
This amendment, from the chairman of the Commons Brexit committee has cross-party support, mainly from MPs campaigning for another EU referendum. Signatories include Conservative MPs Sarah Wollaston and Dominic Grieve, Sir Vince Cable, several SNP MPs and Labour's Yvette Cooper, Rachel Reeves and Meg Hillier
The broad support for this amendment means it is likely to be called by the Speaker

It's still a long drawn out car crash, and if even May's Deal gets through all the WA does is give time to discuss the trade deal. It's not endgame, it's just advancing to the next level, but you loose all the save points.

blanch152

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Not according to the WTO.

But what do they know?

Strictly speaking, if the UK have no problem importing kettles that explode, fridges that leak chemicals, rancid meat, pesticide-covered vegetables, and other such product, then yes, they don't have to impose border controls or a hard border.

Frank Bullitt

Don't post quips please.

cml387

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

But the latest figures don't give you much scope for gloating (Financial Times):

Being tied to the EU certainly doesn't guarantee financial success.

Don't accuse me of gloating.
As someone born in England and who still regards it with affection, it just appalls me that it's come to this.

ThePanjandrum

Out of interest, and I don't know the answer to this at all, what is the situation with Ireland and the Isle of Man with regard to passports and tariffs.

J Mysterio

Wow! What a headline in the Irish Times:

No-deal Brexit would make a united Ireland more likely – May
'British prime minister asks MPs to take a second look at her Brexit deal'

May precipitating the break up of the EU now in the 11th hour. She really is cretinous, but music to the ears of republicans.

A Dub in Glasgo

Berserker wrote: »

By not accepting sh1t deals?? How dare they!!!! Show me where the UK has said that they want a hard border on the island?

You know full well that the UK red lines were totally and utterly incompatible with each other. You simply cannot have a red line of 'No Hard Border in Ireland' and at the same time a red line of 'No special status for NI'.... it was delusion to think otherwise.

When you look back at one of the major Brexit rallying calls which is 'Take back control of our Borders', how does having an open border with the one and only UK/EU land border take back control of those borders?

PeadarCo

ThePanjandrum wrote:

Not according to the WTO.

They don't need to set up a hard border but they would also forgo any leverage they have negotiating with other trade blocks. Everyone will be asking can all their goods and services enter the UK without inspection. They will want the same deal as the UK is giving the EU

An Ciarraioch

Headshot wrote: »

What time is the vote tomorrow?

7 p.m, I believe.

Bit cynical

Peregrinus wrote: »

Well, it's not quite that simple. Treaty-making is a two-stage process - signature and ratification. First the parties negotiate and sign a treaty. At that state the treating is in final form and both parties are obliged to try and make it work. But it is not yet in force. Both parties then have to go home and do whatever needs to be done so they can actually comply with the treaty. So, if the parties will need to change their domestic law, for example, they need to go back to their respective legislatures and get them either to change the law, or to commit to doing so. Only when this has been done on both sides to the parties ratify the treaty, and then it enters into force.

And the UK was never going to be able to ratify any Withdrawal Agreement without getting buy-in from Parliament, since any kind of Withdrawal Agreement that you could plausibly imagine was going to require some change to UK legislation.

I think the significance of this vote is that the deal can be terminated in one fell swoop. Without the changes brought about by the Notification Act necessitated by the Gina Miller case, MPs could only delay ratification but could not stop it, like they can tomorrow.

ThePanjandrum

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

If there is a no deal Brexit the UK will be Compelled to set up a hard border by the WTO.

Hence the requirement for the backstop.

Not according to the WTO.

But what do they know?

Headshot

What time is the vote tomorrow?

fash

Berserker wrote: »

Once more show me where the UK has asked for a hard border? Can anyone show me this? I can give countless examples where they say they don't.

It's like the story of the guy who repeatedly protested that he didn't want to rape that girl- he just wanted sexual intercourse despite her repeated refusals.
In both cases, you have to read between the lines.
I assume you can do that and are just being deliberately obtuse for the sake of argument.

ThePanjandrum

cml387 wrote: »

Only gradually will it dawn. In summer, when they're on holidays and standing in the non - EU queue for passports.Their brother in law will be on short time from his factory.Strange shortages in the shops.

But the latest figures don't give you much scope for gloating (Financial Times):

The latest data fuelled concerns that the eurozone’s economy was stuttering. Growth fell to 0.2 per cent between the second and third quarters — the worst performance in more than four years. Economists had initially blamed the slowdown on a series of one-off factors affecting Germany, the region’s economic powerhouse, such as delays from automakers in meeting new EU emissions standards and low water levels in the Rhine that delayed goods deliveries.

“The third quarter was a significant disappointment in the euro area, and it now looks as though there will be no rebound in the fourth quarter,” said François Cabau, an economist at Barclays. “External demand has been much weaker than thought through 2018, owing to trade war, and a slowdown in China.”

The figures were released a week after German authorities said production had fallen by 1.9 per cent between October and November. Industrial production also fell sharply in Ireland and Portugal, and was weak in the other three big economies — France, Italy and Spain. Production fell across the board: for capital goods, durable and non-durable consumer goods, intermediate goods and energy.

Being tied to the EU certainly doesn't guarantee financial success.

Charles Babbage

Berserker wrote: »

It's not the UK, that's for sure.

No, in a sly way the UK does not call for a border but justs carries on demolishing the coordination arrangements that ensure there is no need for one.

fash

Berserker wrote: »

I've called this since day one. Take a look back at conversation between Francie B. and I. This was always going to be the end game, i.e. a hard border paid for by the Irish. I hope and believe that the people of NI are smart enough to see through the bs being peddled by Leo & the EU. Nobody in the UK is calling for a hard border. This narrative has come from the EU and the Irish government is the messenger.

Even fewer people in Ireland are calling for a hard border- so why do you blame people here anyway?
Seems odd that you can blame Leo for the indirect consequences of his actions but fail to do so for the direct consequences of the UK government's actions.
In any case, a perfectly legitimate and more realistic position for Ireland to take is to wait for the no deal brexit, see how the UK likes them apples and see who blinks first.

Nody

Berserker wrote: »

It's not the UK, that's for sure.

Really? So you mean all those Brexiteers crying for WTO terms want unlimited, tariff & control free imports from every country in the world? Because if not they DO require and are calling for a border since they are not allowed to discriminate imports from another WTO country (which per definition not putting a border in NI would do).

10000maniacs

GM228 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1084828400227938309?s=19

"No food, no channel tunnel"

I would say definately put there on purpose.

It was treating everyone like imbeciles that got the Tories into the mess they are now in. "Oh look what they were discussing at their meeting" :rolleyes:.

FrancieBrady

Berserker wrote: »

It's not the UK, that's for sure.

They are doing zilch to avoid one, knowing full well that it would be required when they opted to leave.
Stop gilding the lily, everyone knows this.

Hurrache

Berserker wrote: »

It's not the UK, that's for sure.

Nor the EU. There have been no calls for a hard border. You appear to not understand the practicalities for both sides in the event of a no deal and why checks are required.

To say there's no need for one but the EU are pushing for it regardless is a blatant lie by you.

Berserker

Hurrache wrote: »

Who's calling for a border now?

It's not the UK, that's for sure.

Capt'n Midnight

lawred2 wrote: »

Curbing uncontrolled EU migration from the Eastern blocs was one of the core tenets of the brexit campaign...

How is that achievable with an open land border between the EU and the UK?

Dead easy.

They've already reduced nett Polish migration to zero by reducing sterling and increasing xenophobia.

At the same time non-EU immigration has gone up in recent years.
May's 100,000 "target" is exceeded by China and India, before you get to the rest of the world.

Anyone who voted based on immigration was sold a pup.

Hurrache

Who's calling for a border now?