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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Hurrache

Berserker wrote: »

Do you understand the nature of the relationship between the RoI and Uk and how that differs from the of the UK and the rest of Europe? Once more show me where the UK has asked for a hard border? Can anyone show me this? I can give countless examples where they say they don't.

So the UK doesn't want control of their borders and are happy with an open door policy into their region?

Tell me how

Hurrache wrote: »

So the UK doesn't want control of their borders and are happy with an open door policy into their region?

Well, they don't want the EU telling them what to do (which they don't really) but still think former colonies should think fondly of them.

Must be great to have such supreme confidence to suggest both points.

lawred2

cml387 wrote: »

Who is going to be using the border as a backdoor into the UK? Only EU nationals, as they are the only ones who have free entry into the ROI. And as has already been pointed out, the whole debate about inward migration to the UK from the EU is a red herring anyway.

No, it's the use of the ROI as a backdoor route for non EU goods is the problem. And that will demand customs checks from our side.

As was the case before the EU. The most stringent customs checks were carried out by Irish customs coming into the ROI, as anyone who remembers travel before the single market will remember.

Curbing uncontrolled EU migration from the Eastern blocs was one of the core tenets of the brexit campaign...

How is that achievable with an open land border between the EU and the UK?

Berserker

Hurrache wrote: »

So the UK doesn't want control of their borders and are happy with an open door policy into their region?

Not the UK wants to control it's border but given the open nature of the relationship that exists between the RoI and the UK, which predates the EU in all it's forms, it does not want to implement a hard border on the island of Ireland between the EU and the UK. Last time I checked, the main volume of people moving into the UK was from mainland Europe. I've yet to hear or see them arriving in boats into Rosslare etc. If they do, the Irish authorities and citizens will deal with that. We've seen how welcoming the Irish are when it comes to refugees over the last few weeks!!!

cml387

lawred2 wrote: »

Curbing uncontrolled EU migration from the Eastern blocs was one of the CE tenets of the brexit campaign...

How is that achievable with an open land border between the EU and the UK?

Yes, but it was never a realistic fear of those in the know, i.e. the Brexiteers.
Fear is of inward migration from outside the EU via Calais and the jungle.

There are no hordes of refugees storming Irish shores. Therefore the Irish border doesn't matter.

Hurrache

lawred2 wrote: »

How is that achievable with an open land border between the EU and the UK?

Magic technology apparently has been chosen as the preferred method.

cml387 wrote: »

Yes, but it was never a realistic fear of those in the know, i.e. the Brexiteers.
Fear is of inward migration from outside the EU via Calais and the jungle.

There are no hordes of refugees storming Irish shores. Therefore the Irish border doesn't matter.

But that's simply not true. The issue was with EU immigration and free movement.

You're not going to tell me it was all lies now are you?!

lawred2

cml387 wrote: »

Yes, but it was never a realistic fear of those in the know, i.e. the Brexiteers.
Fear is of inward migration from outside the EU via Calais and the jungle.

There are no hordes of refugees storming Irish shores. Therefore the Irish border doesn't matter.

Well when Ireland has the only open land border to the UK there just might be..

Berserker

lawred2 wrote: »

Well when Ireland has the only open land border to the UK there just might be..

It won't be though. That's why this border has popped up now from the EU. They are putting a stop to that now before it could possible start. I think it's an own goal from the EU, if I'm honest. Surprised they are calling for this. Thought it'd happen after April.

Hurrache

Who's calling for a border now?

Capt'n Midnight

lawred2 wrote: »

Curbing uncontrolled EU migration from the Eastern blocs was one of the core tenets of the brexit campaign...

How is that achievable with an open land border between the EU and the UK?

Dead easy.

They've already reduced nett Polish migration to zero by reducing sterling and increasing xenophobia.

At the same time non-EU immigration has gone up in recent years.
May's 100,000 "target" is exceeded by China and India, before you get to the rest of the world.

Anyone who voted based on immigration was sold a pup.

Berserker

Hurrache wrote: »

Who's calling for a border now?

It's not the UK, that's for sure.

Hurrache

Berserker wrote: »

It's not the UK, that's for sure.

Nor the EU. There have been no calls for a hard border. You appear to not understand the practicalities for both sides in the event of a no deal and why checks are required.

To say there's no need for one but the EU are pushing for it regardless is a blatant lie by you.

FrancieBrady

Berserker wrote: »

It's not the UK, that's for sure.

They are doing zilch to avoid one, knowing full well that it would be required when they opted to leave.
Stop gilding the lily, everyone knows this.

10000maniacs

GM228 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1084828400227938309?s=19

"No food, no channel tunnel"

I would say definately put there on purpose.

It was treating everyone like imbeciles that got the Tories into the mess they are now in. "Oh look what they were discussing at their meeting" :rolleyes:.

Nody

Berserker wrote: »

It's not the UK, that's for sure.

Really? So you mean all those Brexiteers crying for WTO terms want unlimited, tariff & control free imports from every country in the world? Because if not they DO require and are calling for a border since they are not allowed to discriminate imports from another WTO country (which per definition not putting a border in NI would do).

fash

Berserker wrote: »

I've called this since day one. Take a look back at conversation between Francie B. and I. This was always going to be the end game, i.e. a hard border paid for by the Irish. I hope and believe that the people of NI are smart enough to see through the bs being peddled by Leo & the EU. Nobody in the UK is calling for a hard border. This narrative has come from the EU and the Irish government is the messenger.

Even fewer people in Ireland are calling for a hard border- so why do you blame people here anyway?
Seems odd that you can blame Leo for the indirect consequences of his actions but fail to do so for the direct consequences of the UK government's actions.
In any case, a perfectly legitimate and more realistic position for Ireland to take is to wait for the no deal brexit, see how the UK likes them apples and see who blinks first.

Charles Babbage

Berserker wrote: »

It's not the UK, that's for sure.

No, in a sly way the UK does not call for a border but justs carries on demolishing the coordination arrangements that ensure there is no need for one.

ThePanjandrum

cml387 wrote: »

Only gradually will it dawn. In summer, when they're on holidays and standing in the non - EU queue for passports.Their brother in law will be on short time from his factory.Strange shortages in the shops.

But the latest figures don't give you much scope for gloating (Financial Times):

The latest data fuelled concerns that the eurozone’s economy was stuttering. Growth fell to 0.2 per cent between the second and third quarters — the worst performance in more than four years. Economists had initially blamed the slowdown on a series of one-off factors affecting Germany, the region’s economic powerhouse, such as delays from automakers in meeting new EU emissions standards and low water levels in the Rhine that delayed goods deliveries.

“The third quarter was a significant disappointment in the euro area, and it now looks as though there will be no rebound in the fourth quarter,” said François Cabau, an economist at Barclays. “External demand has been much weaker than thought through 2018, owing to trade war, and a slowdown in China.”

The figures were released a week after German authorities said production had fallen by 1.9 per cent between October and November. Industrial production also fell sharply in Ireland and Portugal, and was weak in the other three big economies — France, Italy and Spain. Production fell across the board: for capital goods, durable and non-durable consumer goods, intermediate goods and energy.

Being tied to the EU certainly doesn't guarantee financial success.

fash

Berserker wrote: »

Once more show me where the UK has asked for a hard border? Can anyone show me this? I can give countless examples where they say they don't.

It's like the story of the guy who repeatedly protested that he didn't want to rape that girl- he just wanted sexual intercourse despite her repeated refusals.
In both cases, you have to read between the lines.
I assume you can do that and are just being deliberately obtuse for the sake of argument.

Headshot

What time is the vote tomorrow?

ThePanjandrum

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

If there is a no deal Brexit the UK will be Compelled to set up a hard border by the WTO.

Hence the requirement for the backstop.

Not according to the WTO.

But what do they know?

Bit cynical

Peregrinus wrote: »

Well, it's not quite that simple. Treaty-making is a two-stage process - signature and ratification. First the parties negotiate and sign a treaty. At that state the treating is in final form and both parties are obliged to try and make it work. But it is not yet in force. Both parties then have to go home and do whatever needs to be done so they can actually comply with the treaty. So, if the parties will need to change their domestic law, for example, they need to go back to their respective legislatures and get them either to change the law, or to commit to doing so. Only when this has been done on both sides to the parties ratify the treaty, and then it enters into force.

And the UK was never going to be able to ratify any Withdrawal Agreement without getting buy-in from Parliament, since any kind of Withdrawal Agreement that you could plausibly imagine was going to require some change to UK legislation.

I think the significance of this vote is that the deal can be terminated in one fell swoop. Without the changes brought about by the Notification Act necessitated by the Gina Miller case, MPs could only delay ratification but could not stop it, like they can tomorrow.

An Ciarraioch

Headshot wrote: »

What time is the vote tomorrow?

7 p.m, I believe.

PeadarCo

ThePanjandrum wrote:

Not according to the WTO.

They don't need to set up a hard border but they would also forgo any leverage they have negotiating with other trade blocks. Everyone will be asking can all their goods and services enter the UK without inspection. They will want the same deal as the UK is giving the EU

A Dub in Glasgo

Berserker wrote: »

By not accepting sh1t deals?? How dare they!!!! Show me where the UK has said that they want a hard border on the island?

You know full well that the UK red lines were totally and utterly incompatible with each other. You simply cannot have a red line of 'No Hard Border in Ireland' and at the same time a red line of 'No special status for NI'.... it was delusion to think otherwise.

When you look back at one of the major Brexit rallying calls which is 'Take back control of our Borders', how does having an open border with the one and only UK/EU land border take back control of those borders?

J Mysterio

Wow! What a headline in the Irish Times:

No-deal Brexit would make a united Ireland more likely – May
'British prime minister asks MPs to take a second look at her Brexit deal'

May precipitating the break up of the EU now in the 11th hour. She really is cretinous, but music to the ears of republicans.

ThePanjandrum

Out of interest, and I don't know the answer to this at all, what is the situation with Ireland and the Isle of Man with regard to passports and tariffs.

cml387

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

But the latest figures don't give you much scope for gloating (Financial Times):

Being tied to the EU certainly doesn't guarantee financial success.

Don't accuse me of gloating.
As someone born in England and who still regards it with affection, it just appalls me that it's come to this.

Frank Bullitt

Don't post quips please.

blanch152

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Not according to the WTO.

But what do they know?

Strictly speaking, if the UK have no problem importing kettles that explode, fridges that leak chemicals, rancid meat, pesticide-covered vegetables, and other such product, then yes, they don't have to impose border controls or a hard border.