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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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judeboy101

EdgeCase wrote: »

That's always been one of the consequences of a no deal Brexit. Only Westminster agreeing something sane can avoid that.

We know this for the last two years.

The EU made several compromise proposals, all of which the UK rejected out of hand, preferring the idea of believing that it'll somehow be fudged.

You might want to tell leo

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/21/ireland-has-no-plans-in-place-for-hard-border-after-brexit-varadkar?CMP=share_btn_link

Hurrache

judeboy101 wrote: »

You might want to tell leo

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/21/ireland-has-no-plans-in-place-for-hard-border-after-brexit-varadkar?CMP=share_btn_link

He never said there won't be border checks in that article?

prawnsambo

judeboy101 wrote: »

You might want to tell leo

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/21/ireland-has-no-plans-in-place-for-hard-border-after-brexit-varadkar?CMP=share_btn_link

Did you actually read this? Because he's not saying what you seem to be implying. But then again, you're not very clear in what you're saying either. Perhaps you might want to edit your post.

EdgeCase

judeboy101 wrote: »

You might want to tell leo

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/21/ireland-has-no-plans-in-place-for-hard-border-after-brexit-varadkar?CMP=share_btn_link

We’re not making plans for a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. Our focus is entirely on getting an agreement that ensures that doesn’t happen.

That's a statement of hopeful optimism. It's not a statement of hard lines, nor is it saying that it won't happen.

They are clearly concerned that if they start to publicly accept that a hard border is on the agenda that the UK will just start to factor that in to their position and the EU will also not be worried about it.

The fact that they're saying the don't want one and being very firm on that is keeping avoiding that scenario in the agenda.

To be fair to the Irish Government and Varadkar they've been very consistent, calm, concise and have steadfastly stood behind the Good Friday Agreement to which they are a signatory.

I'm getting really fed up with this blame everything on everyone else and accept no responsibility for the consequences of decisions mentality.
It's pathetic tabloid nonsense.

If you want to leave the EU without any agreement - there are serious practical consequences to that. You can't vote or wish those away. Nor can you bury your head in the sand and blame everyone else.

ancapailldorcha

judeboy101 wrote: »

You might want to tell leo

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/21/ireland-has-no-plans-in-place-for-hard-border-after-brexit-varadkar?CMP=share_btn_link

No more one-liners please.

ThePanjandrum

SNIP. There's a mod warning above. No more condescending quips please.

prawnsambo

I find it bizarre that no-deal is being proposed as a genuine alternative. It is hyper inflation in a bottle. One that opens on the 30th March and doesn't get properly closed again for decades. The lasting effects of which go far beyond inflation. The analogy of a gun to the head isn't far off except that when it's fired, it doesn't kill the victim, but leaves them in a vegetative state.

Headshot

Im watching Politics live on BBC and WTO comes into play again by those Brexiteers, why the **** do BBC never have any economic experts on the panel and bring home some home truths

ancapailldorcha

Headshot wrote: »

Im watching Politics live on BBC and WTO comes into play again by those Brexiteers, why the **** do BBC never have any economic experts on the panel and bring home some home truths

The glib answer is that people are fed up of experts.

Seriously though, I think it's the fact that they know that the Tories can visit serious damage upon them if they act as anything other than loyal cheerleaders.

Berserker

eire4 wrote: »

I am no fan Varadkar but it is and has been very clear all along. If there is no deal upon their exit from the EU there will be a border. The fault for that lies 100% with the British and not either the EU nor Varadkar.

Are you talking about a physical 'hard' border? The border that's in place at the moment could remain if he wants any old border. The UK isn't calling for a hard border even with a no deal exit. Not sure how you can blame them but I'm sure you'll find a way. If Leo wants a hard border then he's going to have to build one. Changing his tune from the days of wanting no hard border on the island though. The EU must have had a word with him and he is softening up the Irish people for the bill that's coming their way.

An Ciarraioch

Berserker wrote: »

Are you talking about a physical 'hard' border? The border that's in place at the moment could remain if he wants any old border. The UK isn't calling for a hard border even with a no deal exit. If Leo want that there is going to be a hard border in the event of a no-deal exit then he's going to have to build one.

It has been UK membership of the SM and CU that has maintained a soft Border, so no, it couldn't remain.

Hurrache

Berserker wrote: »

Are you talking about a physical 'hard' border? The border that's in place at the moment could remain if he wants any old border. The UK isn't calling for a hard border even with a no deal exit. Not sure how you can blame them but I'm sure you'll find a way. If Leo wants a hard border then he's going to have to build one. Changing his tune from the days of wanting no hard border on the island though. The EU must have had a word with him and he is softening up the Irish people for the bill that's coming their way.

And how will that adhere to Britain's red lines? Brexiteers are very fond of throwing out the statement that they won't put up a border without paying any attention to the fact that anyone from EU can then walk into their country.

Your post is completely disingenuous.

cml387

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Crispin seems to think he can leave on 29th with zero tariffs with EU and no friction at the ports.
Who to believe for the voters?

I would guess that most people in the UK who are not politically savvy would say "Let's just leave, at least we won't have to hear all this Brexit nonsense any more"

They would think, what's the worst that can happen? This is England after all? We'll muddle through as we always do.

On April 1st (ironically) they will see that the sky hasn't fallen, the trains will run, the banks will be open.

Only gradually will it dawn. In summer, when they're on holidays and standing in the non - EU queue for passports.Their brother in law will be on short time from his factory.Strange shortages in the shops.

lawred2

Berserker wrote: »

Are you talking about a physical 'hard' border? The border that's in place at the moment could remain if he wants any old border. The UK isn't calling for a hard border even with a no deal exit. Not sure how you can blame them but I'm sure you'll find a way. If Leo wants a hard border then he's going to have to build one. Changing his tune from the days of wanting no hard border on the island though. The EU must have had a word with him and he is softening up the Irish people for the bill that's coming their way.

Reads like you're in your element anyway.. sad to see that there are still people on hand to gleefully welcome the prospect of the entrenched divisions of old returning.

Calina

Berserker wrote: »

Are you talking about a physical 'hard' border? The border that's in place at the moment could remain if he wants any old border. The UK isn't calling for a hard border even with a no deal exit. Not sure how you can blame them but I'm sure you'll find a way. If Leo wants a hard border then he's going to have to build one. Changing his tune from the days of wanting no hard border on the island though. The EU must have had a word with him and he is softening up the Irish people for the bill that's coming their way.

The UK is either being disingenuous or dishonest about the border in the event of a no deal Brexit. If they do not enforce in NI they cannot enforce anywhere else.

Hard border is caused by Brexit. No amount of screaming by the UK that they do not want one will change the fact that they caused one if it ensues.

Berserker

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

It has been UK membership of the SM and CU that has maintained a soft Border, so no, it couldn't remain.

If the EU and Leo want that then so be it. It's not the wish of the UK government or the people of NI.

Beechwoodspark

Calina wrote: »

The UK is either being disingenuous or dishonest about the border in the event of a no deal Brexit. If they do not enforce in NI they cannot enforce anywhere else.

Hard border is caused by Brexit. No amount of screaming by the UK that they do not want one will change the fact that they caused one if it ensues.

Some in The Uk are akin to the child sticking his fingers in his ears and screaming whenever anyone points out reality.

If there is a no deal Brexit the UK will be Compelled to set up a hard border by the WTO.

Hence the requirement for the backstop.

Calina

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Some in The Uk are akin to the child sticking his fingers in his ears and screaming whenever anyone points out reality.

If there is a no deal Brexit the UK will be Compelled to set up a hard border by the WTO.

Hence the requirement for the backstop.

Backstop is irrelevant if Brexit happens without the withdrawal agreement.

cml387

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Some in The Uk are akin to the child sticking his fingers in his ears and screaming whenever anyone points out reality.

If there is a no deal Brexit the UK will be Compelled to set up a hard border by the WTO.

Hence the requirement for the backstop.

Em, no.

The EU will demand that the NI border is not used as a path for entry of non-EU approved goods to be brought into the EU.

The UK has no interest in securing the border. This seems to have been forgotten by a lot of people.

lawred2

Berserker wrote: »

If the EU and Leo want that then so be it. It's not the wish of the UK government or the people of NI.

Well except for rejecting every deal possible to achieve such a situation

If it is their wish, then why are they about to reject the WA in favour of a no deal Brexit.

Your position is so utterly disingenuous as to be nothing but a self serving and grotesque distortion of reality..

Berserker

lawred2 wrote: »

Reads like you're in your element anyway.. sad to see that there are still people on hand to gleefully welcome the prospect of the entrenched divisions of old returning.

I've called this since day one. Take a look back at conversation between Francie B. and I. This was always going to be the end game, i.e. a hard border paid for by the Irish. I hope and believe that the people of NI are smart enough to see through the bs being peddled by Leo & the EU. Nobody in the UK is calling for a hard border. This narrative has come from the EU and the Irish government is the messenger.

RobMc59

Calina wrote: »

The UK is either being disingenuous or dishonest about the border in the event of a no deal Brexit. If they do not enforce in NI they cannot enforce anywhere else.

Hard border is caused by Brexit. No amount of screaming by the UK that they do not want one will change the fact that they caused one if it ensues.

Apart from the sea there is no other border to enforce apart from NI and the Republic and if Ireland and the UK have said they will not have a hard border then is`nt that believable?Why would anyone want to go back to the bad times?
Whether it`s popular to say it or not there is a unique,special relationship between Britain and Ireland which does`nt exist with any other nations.

Hurrache

Berserker wrote: »

It's not the wish of the UK government

It is, they wanted to take back control of their borders and leave the various customs unions

Your posts are only deluding yourself.

cml387 wrote: »

The UK has no interest in securing the border. This seems to have been forgotten by a lot of people.

Take back control...

lawred2

cml387 wrote: »

Em, no.

The EU will demand that the NI border is not used as a path for entry of non-EU approved goods to be brought into the EU.

The UK has no interest in securing the border. This seems to have been forgotten by a lot of people.

It has an interest in uncontrolled inward migration no? Ireland is not going to introduce north bound emigration checks..

Berserker

Hurrache wrote: »

It is, they wanted to take back control of their borders and leave the various customs unions

Your posts are only deluding yourself.

Take back control...

Where have they said they wanted a border on the island? The British Isles have special agreements in place regarding the movement of people, as we all know.

Hurrache

Berserker wrote: »

Nobody in the UK is calling for a hard border. This narrative has come from the EU and the Irish government is the messenger.

3rd bullet point.

Berserker wrote: »

The British Isles have special agreements in place regarding the movement of people, as we all know.

You're confusing your agreements. How will CTA stop all those pesky Europeans sneaking in?

Berserker

lawred2 wrote: »

Well except for rejecting every deal possible to achieve such a situation

If it is their wish, then why are they about to reject the WA in favour of a no deal Brexit.

Your position is so utterly disingenuous as to be nothing but a self serving and grotesque distortion of reality..

By not accepting sh1t deals?? How dare they!!!! Show me where the UK has said that they want a hard border on the island? Your Irish republican bias is trying to generate a situation that simply doesn't exist.

cml387

lawred2 wrote: »

It has an interest in uncontrolled inward migration no? Ireland is not going to introduce north bound emigration checks..

Who is going to be using the border as a backdoor into the UK? Only EU nationals, as they are the only ones who have free entry into the ROI. And as has already been pointed out, the whole debate about inward migration to the UK from the EU is a red herring anyway.

No, it's the use of the ROI as a backdoor route for non EU goods is the problem. And that will demand customs checks from our side.

As was the case before the EU. The most stringent customs checks were carried out by Irish customs coming into the ROI, as anyone who remembers travel before the single market will remember.

Hurrache

Berserker wrote: »

By not accepting sh1t deals?? How dare they!!!! Show me where the UK has said that they want a hard border on the island? Your Irish republican bias is trying to generate a situation that simply doesn't exist.

It's like reading JRM's blog.

Berserker

lawred2 wrote: »

It has an interest in uncontrolled inward migration no? Ireland is not going to introduce north bound emigration checks..

Seriously? I've read plenty of your posts and whilst I disagree with you, I know you are no fool. A few months back, Leo & the EU had no hard border under any circumstances. Now, a hard border is coming and the UK is going to pay for it but they have no interest in having one. Where do you think this is going to go?

Hurrache wrote: »

3rd bullet point.

Do you understand the nature of the relationship between the RoI and Uk and how that differs from the of the UK and the rest of Europe? Once more show me where the UK has asked for a hard border? Can anyone show me this? I can give countless examples where they say they don't.