nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

Strazdas

mark206000 wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/business/farming/news/farming-news/emergency-eu-aid-for-farmers-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37677649.html

"The Government will seek hundreds of millions of euro in special aid from Brussels if the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal."

Can't help thinking we've been pushed by the EU to create problems for the UK and are going to end up getting shafted both ends for it. The EU without the UK to restrain it for things usually in our interests also and the UK who are going to be a bit pissed at us and probably rightly so.

Our friend Moggy has already responded to the story in the Indo :

https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1080837722208636929

Zubeneschamali

Tell me how wrote: »

We are told the next recession (to whatever degree) is imminent. The last time we had one, countries were suggested leaving the EU. Should that happen again, it is likely the UK will be on the sideline giving them the 'come hither' eyes.

Sidelines? I think it'll be more like the homeless UK rooting through bins in a back alley yelling at passersby that it's all the EUs fault, and can they spare any change cos the IMF needs paying.

prawnsambo

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think you have that the wrong way round. The Irish Gov started working on Brexit more than six months before there was even a vote. The DFA was full on in diplomatic overdrive ever since, and Barnier is a well placed, knowledgeable person when it comes to the GFA, and NI affairs.

Who was it said "If Ireland is happy, then we (the EU) are happy. " I think the DFA get a better result than anyone could expect.

It's the brexiter narrative that's designed to undermine the importance of the GFA. Characterise it as an EU 'ploy' and you can then successfully gaslight everyone into believing that it has no impact on the situation and can be ignored.

WomanSkirtFan8

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I'm sure they have taken this into account which is why the EU either gives it up or there is no deal.

The EU isn't the issue here and never was. The UK government's own ineptitude and incompetence are two of the main reasons why they're in the absolute mess they're in. Is the EU perfect? No. Could it be reformed? Yes absolutely. But you can't change the club if your not IN the club.

Nody

mark206000 wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/business/farming/news/farming-news/emergency-eu-aid-for-farmers-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37677649.html

"The Government will seek hundreds of millions of euro in special aid from Brussels if the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal."

Can't help thinking we've been pushed by the EU to create problems for the UK and are going to end up getting shafted both ends for it. The EU without the UK to restrain it for things usually in our interests also and the UK who are going to be a bit pissed at us and probably rightly so.

No, EU did not go ask Ireland to stir things up and "make things difficult" because UK managed to do that all on their own through incompetence. You can take your pick between May's red lines, the lack of agreed vision, incompetent Brexit ministers and lack or direction given to negotiators to what to actually negotiate, failure to listen to any professional advice, failure to understand even the most basic of EUs workings and failing to read EUs public posted negotiation strategy. UK failed miserably and still failing miserably at all of the above believing that they are a special unicorn that if they only wait long enough then EU will cave in to them.

And UK being pissed off about Ireland is nothing new; UK expected Ireland to roll over and be the doormat and got upset when those peasants refused to do what their master told them to do. They got even more furious when EU refused to drop their support for the Irish position which once again if they had spent 30 min with an expert would have been clear as day.

Hence let me sum it up for you, UK ****ed up the negotiations and are still ****ing up the negotiations as we speak. UK may be angry at Ireland but between having empty food shelves and being angry politicians end up very pragmatic about things. Hence Ireland who's got it's back covered by EU has little to fear while UK are about to experience how 100 billion loss in GDP in 6 months feel like; trust me that they will have plenty of other things to worry about than Ireland.

demfad

Tell me how wrote: »

Grayling was interviewed on Ch4 and it was cringeworthy.
Is using it as an example of the government supporting new British business like its some sort of start up initiative. I suspect we are going to see very revealing investigations in to the company by the likes of Carole Cadwalladar.

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1080521892308627457

This was before it was discovered their T and Cs were copy and pasted from a Fast Food website and a boutique site:

“Thoroughly check the supplied goods before agreeing to pay for any meal/order,” Seaborne Freight’s website demands.
Read more at: https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/seaborne-freight-no-deal-brexit-ferry-company-website/

The boutique shop may not be too happy with the development. The Freighty MacFreightface company cant say they weren't warned though. They copy and pasted the warning!

“We try very hard to make our website original and appealing, so please do not copy what we have worked so hard to achieve. Please note that unauthorised use or reproduction of any or all of the materials published on this website may give rise to a claim for damages and may also be a criminal offence".

Read more at: https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/seaborne-freight-no-deal-brexit-ferry-company-website/

Sam Russell

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

80% of the UK's car production is exported, of which 54% goes to EU member states.

ahem ahem...

I think those in the UK that buy German cars like BMW or Mercedes models will not begrudge a 10% tariff on them, but I doubt the extra price will get them to be Vauxhall Astras or Nissan Qashqais instead. After all the extra for the tariff will be included in the residuals - if anything it might increase their desirability.

A while ago, Mercedes dropped 10% of their whole list price in Ireland.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

Our friend Moggy has already responded to the story in the Indo :

https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1080837722208636929

Actually, I wish they'd leave now. People like Rees Mogg turn my stomach.

Leroy42

But I thought JRM and the like were more than happy to leave with No Deal, and they save 39bn.

Seems like he should be thanking Leo if that is his belief.

prawnsambo

Strazdas wrote: »

Our friend Moggy has already responded to the story in the Indo :

https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1080837722208636929

A phantom border is a pretty good name for it to be fair. So long as it remains a phantom border of course. Also amusing that somebody who was once described as a haunted pencil should be talking about phantom borders.

road_high

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

80% of the UK's car production is exported, of which 54% goes to EU member states.

ahem ahem...

Most of the uk car makers are specifically geared towards supplying the market on their doorstep- even more so the JIT component industry is based completely on EU membership and free market access.
Cars are built in England using EU parts, sold in the EU. Vice versa the same. This is but one example of the potential self damage of the Brexit madness.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Actually, I wish they'd leave now. People like Rees Mogg turn my stomach.

Rest assured that that sentiment is very common over here.

Hermy

If we leave without a deal the main culprit will be the obdurate Irish Government’s threats about the phantom border issue.

So one minute they - the mighty United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland - are leaving the EU on their own terms and taking back control of their borders to boot and the next minute they're not because little old Ireland insists on doing the same re our own border.
This farce stoops ever lower...

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Rest assured that that sentiment is very common over here.

Good. Then there is hope that sanity will prevail.

road_high

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Rest assured that that sentiment is very common over here.

As in England?

Nody

road_high wrote: »

Most of the uk car makers are specifically geared towards supplying the market on their doorstep- even more so the JIT component industry is based completely on EU membership and free market access.
Cars are built in England using EU parts, sold in the EU. Vice versa the same. This is but one example of the potential self damage of the Brexit madness.

Not only that but the exported cars are exported based on EU FTAs which state the minimum percentage of car parts produced in EU to avoid tariffs. Even if UK gets the exact same deal they don't produce enough of the car parts to meet the minimum requirement by a long shot (they can't use EU parts as they are not part of the CU) which will kill the export market beyond EU as well for most cars.

J Mysterio

prawnsambo wrote: »

I think we need to be very careful here in naming this company. Seabourne are a very well established freight and logistics company.

Seaborne on the other hand appear to be gearing up for food deliveries. They are in no way connected that I can find, other than that their names are identical bar one extra vowel.

I heard this also, must be how the latter won the contract! 'I've heard of Seaborne, award it them'!

ambro25

demfad wrote: »

The boutique shop may not be too happy with the development. The Freighty MacFreightface company cant say they weren't warned though. They copy and pasted the warning!

It's a characterised infringement of copyright, though it would take a fair bit of digging to determine who owns that copyright (not necessarily the shop at all) and therefore who has the cause of action.

For the highly-experienced professionals that they claim to be, you can tell they've never been on the receiving end of a letter before IP action. In the right (wrong) hands, and done right, copyright claims can get real messy real quick (though admittedly more for photos and art, than text like this).

ancapailldorcha

road_high wrote: »

As in England?

Either/or really. I can't see him relating to too many in Wales, Scotland or NI whereas he's hardly the patron saint of the working class leave types of Northern industrial towns and cities.

RobMc59

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think you have that the wrong way round. The Irish Gov started working on Brexit more than six months before there was even a vote. The DFA was full on in diplomatic overdrive ever since, and Barnier is a well placed, knowledgeable person when it comes to the GFA, and NI affairs.

Who was it said "If Ireland is happy, then we (the EU) are happy. " I think the DFA get a better result than anyone could expect.

That is true,even the eye of Sauron is looking at Ireland as it`s brexit preparations are being mentioned in sputnik news...:eek:

trellheim

Seaborne freight have deleted the takeaway copypasta

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-ferries-firm-deletes-bungling-13807681

RobMc59

trellheim wrote: »

Seaborne freight have deleted the takeaway copypasta

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-ferries-firm-deletes-bungling-13807681

I`ve seen UK politicians likened to the cast of `Dad`s army`on here and Grayling is undoubtedly Captain Mannering!

Scoondal

According to RTE, EU has confirmed that no further meetings are scheduled on Brexit deal.
EU governments have started the process of ratification of the deal.
It is up to the UK government to also give "the okay" to the deal.
This sounds as clear as crystal to me.
Mrs May can say that meetings are on-going. She is just fooling the British people.

lawred2

trellheim wrote: »

Seaborne freight have deleted the takeaway copypasta

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-ferries-firm-deletes-bungling-13807681

"It's a start up business"

Perfectly satisfactory justification for such a contract to a company that in essence doesn't exist.

I'd hope that there was a bit more to it than that

oscarBravo

RobMc59 wrote: »

I`ve seen UK politicians likened to the cast of `Dad`s army`on here and Grayling is undoubtedly Captain Mannering!

Would you believe, it's Mainwaring?

But yes, Grayling is a catastrophe. The Guardian had a recent op-ed asking how the hell he still has a job.

prawnsambo

oscarBravo wrote: »

Would you believe, it's Mainwaring?

But yes, Grayling is a catastrophe. The Guardian had a recent op-ed asking how the hell he still has a job.

Failing Grayling I believe. But look around. You've got David (it's all in my head) Davis, Dominic (I didn't realise) Raab, Jeremy (where's my wife from again?) Hunt and of course, looming over them all, Boris (trying to fail upwards to PM) Johnson.

Theresa May's ordinariness looks positively genius in comparison.

An Ciarraioch

In terms of our economic preparedness for Brexit, the big worry is that the national finances appear incredibly dependent on windfalls being metaphorically found "down the back of the sofa":

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/varadkar-announces-unexpected-100m-budget-surplus-37678520.html

Of course, better to have a surplus than not, but hardly sustainable, especially given Apple's profit warning today.

Capt'n Midnight

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

80% of the UK's car production is exported, of which 54% goes to EU member states.

ahem ahem...

The 2nd and 3rd biggest destinations are the US and China who won't be pushovers in any deal. ( Ford US imports Cars from Spain , destroys the back seats and calls them Trucks because US rules were insane long before Trump's "America First". and look at how Mexico and Canada are being treated. )

Haven't you forgotten Turkey ? They are the 4th biggest market.
But they are in the CU too. So EU rules apply.
Also direct competitors in the car exporting business.

The next biggest UK market, Oz takes less than 3% of their exports. Then it's Russia. Then Japan and South Korea who also export cars but have FTA's with the EU. Canada have an FTA too.

So realistically the UK is looking at having to do multiple FTA's with countries that take 1% or less of their car exports.

Zubeneschamali

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

So realistically the UK is looking at having to do multiple FTA's with countries that take 1% or less of their car exports.

Realistically, there won't be any volume car manufacturing in the UK in 10 years. Some racing-related stuff, high end, specialized. Some "bespoke" Aston martins and such, too, where prices are already insane, to keep the Union Jack on them.

But the Japanese, PSA, BMW, Land Rover and so on will move volume production elsewhere over a model cycle or two. If the English government bribes them enough, they might make some Right Hand Drive cars for the UK and Ireland there.

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

5. The UK port of Ramsgate cannot handle RORO ferries currently. Dredging will be required, which has not happened.

oddly enough

Dredging began on Thursday morning, with a Dutch company brought in to complete the work.