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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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Thargor

Enzokk wrote: »

The Attorney General is answering questions now on the legal advice he gave to the government on the WA. The House of Commons want the legal advice to be released in full to them before they vote on whether to accept the deal that Mrs May has negotiated.

https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/5ed35e84-a80d-4e22-a69f-2be5ab920147

The main takeaway seems to be that they will not release the advice as he feels it will be against the national interest to release it. One has to wonder why as the argument for not releasing reports and advice on Brexit that was deemed sensitive is that it would affect the UK's negotiating position. But the negotiations has now ended so what public interest is there for his legal advice not to be released?

I would suspect that the advice would not support voting for the deal otherwise they would have released it, so what are they hiding?

Watching him was pure cringe, a grown man acting like a cartoon character or something from Blackadder, so much of their political class is made up of repulsive individuals...

Sam Russell

RobMc59 wrote: »

I`ve seen the progress Ireland has made in the time I`ve been going there on a regular basis since the early 80`s, it`s amazing and it is indeed a stable prosperous nation now.
Although currently in turmoil over brexit the UK is hardly on skid row (currently anyway!)and its standard of living compares favourably against other countries.I was under the impression most people in the Republic wanted a UI.I`ve also seen posts bizarrely suggesting the UK should pay for this to soften the loss of NHS and other benefits which would no longer be available to former NI residents. That is unlikely to happen.I personally voted to remain in the EU but if the worst happens and there was to be a no deal brexit a jointly administered UI would be an option imo .Sometimes you`ve got to put your hand in your pocket and pay for what you want.

The UK currently put their hand in their pocket for NI to the tune of £12 billion a year. They voted to leave the EU because they were contributing £9.5 billion a year. They have agreed to pay £39 billion to the EU because they are leaving.

Do you not think they might be prepared to pay £39 billion to get rid of the heavy drain on the exchequer that NI is?

Do you not think we would be reluctant to acquire such a drain on our finances as a nation, and that we might expect a transition agreement that might make it possible for us to absorb NI?

NI has the smell of a poisoned chalice, we should not be forced to pay for the privilege of drinking from it .

EdgeCase

RobMc59 wrote: »

I`ve also seen posts bizarrely suggesting the UK should pay for this to soften the loss of NHS and other benefits which would no longer be available to former NI residents. That is unlikely to happen.

Considering that Irish public health expenditure is actually signficantly higher than the UK on a €/capita basis and when you add in private spending too it's a lot higher, I don't see why there would be any need. The issues with the HSE and healthcare in the Republic of Ireland are entirely organisational and due to the legacy of not having created a single-tier system.

Effectively, the HSE is what the UK system would have looked like if it hadn't been transformed into the NHS by the Beveridge Report and quite socialist policies under Labour. It's one of the few remaining solidly socialist planks of UK public policy. We continued on with the mix of charitable hospitals, bits of state funding and added voluntary health insurance and have increasingly just pumped more and more public money into the same, largely unaltered, structure. That's why it's full of issues. It morphed into a very heavily publicly funded system, but without structural changes.

Based on what we spend, we should have a healthcare system that's as good as Sweden and a lot better than the UK! It's a topic for another thread, but we really get poor value for money.

Assuming the NI NHS works and would continue to work as-is, it would actually represent a significant cost saving per capita vs rolling out the Republic's chaotic two-tier system.

If anything, we could substantially reduce Irish healthcare costs by just duplicating the NI model in the Republic. The NHS model is just a hell of a lot more efficient at getting bang-for-buck. There's no question about that.

So, financially speaking, NI would actually potentially see MORE money available for the NHS within the Republic's current spend model anyway.

I don't want to derail the thread, but there's an assumption that under a united Ireland that the North would just de facto be switched over to the same systems as the Republic, I would assume the more likely scenario would be a federal setup and the best of both being adopted in both jurisdictions. Some things are done better in the Republic some things are done better in the North. If you combine the two approaches, taking the best of each system, there would be no reductions in service. They might improve in both jurisdictions.

For example: in a UI, the North would automatically benefit from the Republic's FAR more aggressive FDI and business-friendly policies, which would hopefully drive the Northern economy in a way that UK domestic policy hasn't to-date. You'd also have much more appropriate economic and fiscal policies tuned to NI needs, not just generic UK approaches.

Done right, the Northern economy would be transformed and the Republic would benefit from being dragged into reorganising its health services.

The assumption that the north is some kind of dead-weight economic burden does not have to be the case. It would go from being an obscure backwater in the UK to being a major part of Ireland with huge policy priority.

You also get greater economies of scale and all of those things with a country that would be 6.65 million (ROI: 4.784 + NI: 1.875) and probably likely to grow to 10+ million over the coming decades.

But, alas, Northern Ireland politics is still stuck somewhere around 1921. I don't see much more than a crash-out happening now tbh.

Hurrache

The AG has also said that anything in an agreement such as workers and citizen rights, environmental issues, standards, tax etc will not be legally enforceable by the EU. I'm sure many a Tory ear pricked up for that.

Capt'n Midnight

RobMc59 wrote: »

I thought it a non starter in this form but the idea of a unified Ireland under the joint control of ireland and the UK is possibly a good idea.

Option A
The SNP won almost all the seats in Scotland in the previous election.
Even though the electorate knew they'd have no real power in Westminster.

Let that sink in for a moment.

Option B
The further the economies diverge the more likely is reunification.
A Hard Brexit will just accelerate that.

One tipping point is if cuts to the NHS start to make the HSE look attractive.

The UK isn't wining hearts and minds.

In the North an eight of the population was on DLA. (Don't ask) Now they are moving using a for profit company to do assessments to move two thirds of people on to PIP. ie. cutting benefits for the other third. It'll save a few quid but could be the straw that breaks the precious precious union.

EdgeCase

The only thing that might work is a Northern Ireland getting a special status where it was able to maintain being part of the UK while also being de facto linked to the Republic for practical reasons. That was offered by the EU but has been flatly rejected by the DUP and Tories.

There's as much likelihood of the Republic rejoining the UK as there is of the UK agreeing to give up the monarchy and becoming a series of French départments. It's just not even worth debating. There's no practical reason why it would do that and there's absolutely no way it would be acceptable politically, given the history.

It's also worth remembering we had a customs border until 1993. There's never been any non-EU history of absolute freedom of movement of goods, services and capital, only movement of people. There was also a period up until 1952 where a customs barrier existed between the island of Ireland and Britain. So, it's actually false to say that Northern Ireland has always existed in a customs union with the rest of the UK and it's also false to say that there's never been a hard border between the two jurisdictions on this island. I find I hear both lines being spouted in the UK in the media all the time. The history is a lot more complex than most commentators paint it to be.

RobMc59

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Option A
The SNP won almost all the seats in Scotland in the previous election.
Even though the electorate knew they'd have no real power in Westminster.

Let that sink in for a moment.

Option B
The further the economies diverge the more likely is reunification.
A Hard Brexit will just accelerate that.

One tipping point is if cuts to the NHS start to make the HSE look attractive.

The UK isn't wining hearts and minds.

In the North an eight of the population was on DLA. (Don't ask) Now they are moving using a for profit company to do assessments to move two thirds of people on to PIP. ie. cutting benefits for the other third. It'll save a few quid but could be the straw that breaks the precious precious union.

I`ve compared living in NI and the Republic and it`s cheaper to live in NI and thats not even bringing the NHS into it.The only thing I think is cheaper in the Republic is petrol and diesel.

judeboy101

Hurrache wrote: »

The AG has also said that anything in an agreement such as workers and citizen rights, environmental issues, standards, tax etc will not be legally enforceable by the EU. I'm sure many a Tory ear pricked up for that.

He also said that the ecj would not bind the uk in a backstop against its will.

Capt'n Midnight

RobMc59 wrote: »

I`ve compared living in NI and the Republic and it`s cheaper to live in NI and thats not even bringing the NHS into it.The only thing I think is cheaper in the Republic is petrol and diesel.

Compare the dole or the average wage.

EdgeCase

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Compare the dole or the average wage.

Average full time wage in the Republic : €45,611 based on CSO 2016
Average full time wage in Northern Ireland : £27,092 (€30,392) based on 2018 NI Stats & Research Agency.

That's a huge gap. You can pull in all sorts of odd figures if you start looking at part time / casual wages too, so it's probably best to just compare full time with full time.

Unemployment in the North is also lower, but I would argue that's largely down to very aggressive Tory policies forcing people into underemployment rather than any kind of massive improvement - both jurisdictions are currently at or near full employment but the Republic will tend to have more generous welfare systems so, you don't get that impact.

[Deleted User]

EdgeCase wrote: »

Average full time wage in the Republic : €45,611 based on CSO 2016
Average full time wage in Northern Ireland : £27,092 (€30,392) based on 2018 NI Stats & Research Agency.

That's a huge gap. You can pull in all sorts of odd figures if you start looking at part time / casual wages too, so it's probably best to just compare full time with full time.

Unemployment in the North is also lower, but I would argue that's largely down to very aggressive Tory policies forcing people into underemployment rather than any kind of massive improvement - both jurisdictions are currently at or near full employment but the Republic will tend to have more generous welfare systems so, you don't get that impact.

Check out how many are on the sick. That applies to the whole UK as well though slightly less than in NI.

RobMc59

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Compare the dole or the average wage.

A couple of examples:
150,000 euro property in Republic;stamp duty:1500
£134,000 property NI;stamp duty £200
109 CO2 emission car tax in Republic;190 euros pa
same emissions car in NI;£20.pa

ilovesmybrick

RobMc59 wrote: »

A couple of examples:
150,000 euro property in Republic;stamp duty:1500
£134,000 property NI;stamp duty £200
109 CO2 emission car tax in Republic;190 euros pa
same emissions car in NI;£20.pa

That's all well and good. However, the North has a devolved government that is dysfunctional at best and has had no government for around two years now. Both the Unionist and Republican parties are so entrenched in their views there is no concept of compromise or any foreseeable form of political representation that is not starkly divided down sectarian lines. Cost of living is one thing, but I would happily take the massively higher cost of living as a penalty for an operating political system. We have high taxation to be sure, but one consequence of that is that we're not reliant on 20-25% of our economy being a subvention from Westminster.

Enzokk

RobMc59 wrote: »

A couple of examples:
150,000 euro property in Republic;stamp duty:1500
£134,000 property NI;stamp duty £200
109 CO2 emission car tax in Republic;190 euros pa
same emissions car in NI;£20.pa

Yes the cost of living is less in NI compared to here. But in many cases the pay is less as well. Now when you could get 1.40 euro for a GBP the difference meant that the pay in NI was much better than in Ireland, but now at 1.12 euro for a GBP it means they earn less comparatively.

Take a nurse in the NHS. Pay starts at £23,000 p.a. and after 7 years your pay would be £28,500 p.a. for a band 5 nurse. In the HSE the pay starts at 29,000 euro p.a. and after 7 years you are up to 37,000 euro p.a., but the HSE scales go up to around 45,000 p.a. at the last point.

So you can easily point to a lot of costs that will be lower in NI but you need to look at the comparative pay for the same jobs in Ireland to get a clearer picture.

theguzman

Enzokk wrote: »

Yes the cost of living is less in NI compared to here. But in many cases the pay is less as well. Now when you could get 1.40 euro for a GBP the difference meant that the pay in NI was much better than in Ireland, but now at 1.12 euro for a GBP it means they earn less comparatively.

Take a nurse in the NHS. Pay starts at £23,000 p.a. and after 7 years your pay would be £28,500 p.a. for a band 5 nurse. In the HSE the pay starts at 29,000 euro p.a. and after 7 years you are up to 37,000 euro p.a., but the HSE scales go up to around 45,000 p.a. at the last point.

So you can easily point to a lot of costs that will be lower in NI but you need to look at the comparative pay for the same jobs in Ireland to get a clearer picture.

Except NI Nurses have a healthcare system which despite its own shortcomings is infinitely better than the Irish system. Irish nurses earning €100k a year wouldn't compensate them for the appalling system they deal with.

Calina

None of this is directly relevant to the thread.

Capt'n Midnight

RobMc59 wrote: »

A couple of examples:
150,000 euro property in Republic;stamp duty:1500
£134,000 property NI;stamp duty £200
109 CO2 emission car tax in Republic;190 euros pa
same emissions car in NI;£20.pa

Well so much for using economic arguments about Brexit.

A two person average-wage household in the South has the same income as a three person one in the North.

Capt'n Midnight

steddyeddy wrote: »

Theresa Villiers went on Sky News yesterday to say that:

I was going to ask who was the most clueless NI Secretary.

These people all have advisors and civil servants and reports. They'd have to go out of their way to avoid being told the basics.

https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/stephen-barclay-brexit-deal-theresa-may/

https://twitter.com/ShehabKhan/status/1069602068254597123

am i bovvered

It just gets more farcical every day.

Water John

Bercow says there's an arguable case that the Govn't are in contempt of Parlaiment. Possible vote on it tomorrow.

Enzokk

It seems that in the House of Commons right now that they are extending a debate on Scotland's Foreign Policy footprint to give the government time to get an amendment in for tomorrow on the contempt motion for tomorrow morning.

They took about 20 minutes to discuss devolution of Scotland but this debate has taken more than 2 hours now.

An Claidheamh

RobMc59 wrote: »

https://www.irishnews.com/opinion/letterstotheeditor/2017/09/20/news/ireland-should-be-reunited-by-rejoining-the-united-kingdom-1140831/
I hope the link works.(please excuse my limited internet skills!)

It doesn't say much about you that you thought that was a serious "article".

That nutter always gets his letters printed in the Sindo as well.

He's from the Cruise O'Brien school of British goosestepping trolling.

Incidentally, you obviously have a lot of evolution to do if you think Ireland should give up its sovereignty and rights to dig orangemen and British imperialists out a a hole.

United Ireland is inevitable. Britain should attempt to accept it with dignity.

Incidentally, I don't think they'll ever pay compensation or apologisefor it, nor would any Irish government expect any from them. That would be delusional on our part!

Capt'n Midnight

MPs will debate and vote on Tuesday on whether or not to refer the case to the Standards Committee.

Popcorn time.

Labour will want an election. But who else does ?

An Claidheamh

Calina wrote: »

The UK does not do joint sovereignty. No one watching the current events should be naive enough to trust them until devolution for England happens and proportional representation is implemented. Also, Ireland is a republic. I do not want a monarch as head of state.

Not a good idea.

Britain refused joint sovereignty of the North when Garret Fitzgerald proposed it to end the bloodshed, then surprise surprise, when Mrs Thatcher was losing Hong Kong to the Chinese .... she proposed joint sovereignty.

They told her they're sending in the tanks if she didn't leave. So they left.

Enzokk

Ok, here is why there was such a long debate last night on Scotland's Foreign Policy footprint, the government admits they are in contempt but are trying to kick the can down the road until after the vote.

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1069733153407938560

RobMc59

Enzokk wrote: »

Yes the cost of living is less in NI compared to here. But in many cases the pay is less as well. Now when you could get 1.40 euro for a GBP the difference meant that the pay in NI was much better than in Ireland, but now at 1.12 euro for a GBP it means they earn less comparatively.

Take a nurse in the NHS. Pay starts at £23,000 p.a. and after 7 years your pay would be £28,500 p.a. for a band 5 nurse. In the HSE the pay starts at 29,000 euro p.a. and after 7 years you are up to 37,000 euro p.a., but the HSE scales go up to around 45,000 p.a. at the last point.

So you can easily point to a lot of costs that will be lower in NI but you need to look at the comparative pay for the same jobs in Ireland to get a clearer picture.

The pound reached 1.40 twice against the euro in the last 11 years I believe,so to use that as an example is at best questionable.Anyway,the original point was about a reunited Ireland and somehow was taken off on a tangent-not by me by the way.

First Up

CelticRambler wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

... trying to cajole, humour or placate a million disaffected unionists ...

They won't be disaffected if they've voted for reunification!

However, for RobMc59's benefit, perhaps this demonstrates that for us in the Republic, re-unification with (or "annexation of") Northern Ireland is really not that big a deal. In the GFA referendum, 94.4% of RoI voters decided that it was better to scrap the RoI's claim on the Six Counties in favour of the lasting peace promised by the GFA. Peace that was suddenly threatened by the English voting to leave the EU.

It would be very niaive to think the entire unionist community would quietly accept it.

But even without civil disobedience (or worse) the task of uniification is enormous and would take up time needed for more important (and urgent) things.
Our priority and responsibility is to overcome the problems resulting from Brexit while maximising the opportunities to win trade and investment from the UK.

That will keep us busy enough and if we do it well it will also make us a more attractive potential partner. But that is a long way down the list of objectives. Bringing UI into it now is unrealistic and unhelpful.

RobMc59

An Claidheamh wrote: »

It doesn't say much about you that you thought that was a serious "article".

That nutter always gets his letters printed in the Sindo as well.

He's from the Cruise O'Brien school of British goosestepping trolling.

Incidentally, you obviously have a lot of evolution to do if you think Ireland should give up its sovereignty and rights to dig orangemen and British imperialists out a a hole.

United Ireland is inevitable. Britain should attempt to accept it with dignity.

Incidentally, I don't think they'll ever pay compensation or apologisefor it, nor would any Irish government expect any from them. That would be delusional on our part!

Thank you for your opinion-growing up in 60s Liverpool I am familiar with sectarianism (Catholic Everton and protestant Liverpool etc..)but thankfully that has pretty much disappeared now here so isn't considered relevant in the UK with the possible exception of Scotland.

RobMc59

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Britain refused joint sovereignty of the North when Garret Fitzgerald proposed it to end the bloodshed, then surprise surprise, when Mrs Thatcher was losing Hong Kong to the Chinese .... she proposed joint sovereignty.

They told her they're sending in the tanks if she didn't leave. So they left.

Really?-I thought it was that the lease had expired-nothing as dramatic as your suggestion.

Peregrinus

RobMc59 wrote: »

Thank you for your opinion-growing up in 60s Liverpool I am familiar with sectarianism (Catholic Everton and protestant Liverpool etc..)but thankfully that has pretty much disappeared now here so isn't considered relevant in the UK with the possible exception of Scotland.

. . . and Northern Ireland. Which is kind of relevant, in the present context.