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Will the housing issue be solved?

mammajamma

Following on from the thread where yet another all-time record has been smashed in rental prices, does anyone seriously think that this is going to be solved?

Combine the years upon years of the government waffling about "tackling" it, with records being consistently broken, and then to add fuel to the fire, this is the very first "key point" from the national planning framework for 2040...

"Guide the future development of Ireland, taking into account a projected 1 million increase in our population, the need to create 660,000 additional jobs to achieve full employment and a need for 550,000 more homes by 2040"

The great "vision" can be read here http://npf.ie/draft-of-ireland-2040/

I mean, are they literally laughing at us behind closed doors? This is so preposterous its surely a joke?

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Sir Oxman

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Heard some of his flat complexes are being demolished in order to provide better accommodation.

But for whom?

Those who work in the city, or those who live in Council properties without working?

Seems to me that social housing should only be provided within the Canals for those working and contributing.

Does it make sense that flat complexes in Dublin are provided to those who will never work or contribute, some exceptions are there I know. Inherited tenancies maybe.

I am not trying to be inflammatory (although some may think so!), but I really think that social housing in the City should only be allocated to those working, under the HAP or whatever. Those not working may have to move outside the M50 ring eventually. It is just not right that those who are working have to commute for hours every day, whilst those who do not, can live in the city centre for differential rent.

I was walking while on phone and meant to add a few words along with the link.

This man headed the biggest social housing building scheme in our history at a time when money was short.
Social housing is not for the unemployed or those on hard times primarily.
It was for and should be for the working population along with those that cannot work.

It was done back then - the will was there and the echoes ring down today as back then, leaving this to private enterprise is wrong and will never work.

hatrickpatrick

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

The fact there is no real appetite for a radical left party in Ireland shows the overwhelming majority are quite happy with how things are going in the country.

Sounds harsh but it’s true.

I never said radical left, I said left. IE, the policies most of the West followed from the end of the second world war until the Thatcher/Reagan era which f*cked everything up.

hatrickpatrick

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

NO, sorry Left Wing and Liberal thought has led us to this pass.

Do not question anything, just pay for it for everyone else. You have no voice, if you rebel you will be denied a voice. We have seen this over the last few months regarding many issues. Silenced.

That's not liberal thought, or left wing thought. That's actually ultraconservative thinking masquerading as left wing thought because the morons who pedal it have no idea what they're talking about.

If anything, the working person, commuting for hours, paying a mortage, and another one for childcare needs is not allowed a voice at all. They should be able to moan and complain and rightly so.

I agree. And the solution is a return to the pre-neoliberal paradigm of "the government's job is to ensure a minimum quality of life for its citizens", not the nihilistic approach of "the free market will solve everything, and if it doesn't, well tough sh!t, no one gives a bollocks".

Wheeliebin30

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

That's not liberal thought, or left wing thought. That's actually ultraconservative thinking masquerading as left wing thought because the morons who pedal it have no idea what they're talking about.

I agree. And the solution is a return to the pre-neoliberal paradigm of "the government's job is to ensure a minimum quality of life for its citizens", not the nihilistic approach of "the free market will solve everything, and if it doesn't, well tough sh!t, no one gives a bollocks".

You are aware as we speak the government are building 1000s of social houses across the country with tax payers money?

You’re well tough **** no one cares carry on is complete nonsense.

hatrickpatrick

jay0109 wrote: »

In response to the OPs' question, no, it will never be solved. Not just of r Ireland but for any prosperous western nation.

Ireland is a small country with much of the economy based around Dublin. When Ireland is going well, hundreds of thousands can come here unannounced from within the EU. And we still somehow manage to import hundreds of thousands more from Asia, Africa, Sth America.
So in a boom we're a housing shortage, high rents, high sale prices.

When we have a downturn and jobs dry up, not many non-nationals who come here actually leave but most of the inward migration dries up. This economic downturn usually coincides with high housing completions meaning an oversupply. This leads to mortgage defaults and bank difficulties, a fall in rents and landlords getting into arrears etc etc.

So how can any Govt plan accurately for it's country's housing needs when they have an open border and especially when that country is very small. It's impossible and we're destined to have ongoing housing issues as the World becomes more and more globalised

There's one obvious elephant in the room which is never discussed - we as a species are moronically overpopulating the world by reproducing at increasing rates while simultaneously (and obviously rightly) chasing the ultimate achievement of longer and longer lifespans. And yet we still live in a culture in which those who choose not to reproduce for whatever reason are looked down upon, nagged, pressured etc by others. That has to change, and sometime soon before we've completely gone off the deep end.

I'd go so far as to say that the state should somehow incentivise or reward those who choose not to contribute to overpopulation in this way. I don't believe in coercive or punitive measures to force people not to contribute to overpopulation, like the barbaric crap which goes on in China - but I don't see why we couldn't introduce some kind of benefit or reward from those who choose to be responsible and not contribute towards pushing humanity over the edge of sustainability as a species.

hatrickpatrick

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

You are aware as we speak the government are building 1000s of social houses across the country with tax payers money?

They're demolishing far more than they're replacing. The government is engaging in lower and lower density construction - for example, one site in Dolphin's Barn is going to go from around 400 units to maybe 150. We need to be doing the opposite.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Ironically the inner city flats in other capital cities are only the preserve of the very rich.

Go figure now.

Not true at all.

Spanish Eyes

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Not true at all.

Explain why Parisienne lovely Arrondisements are top notch. Similar areas to our own social housing flats in our inner city.

OH I suppose it might be the cachet of Hausmann or something.

Betcha there are no social flats within the inner core of Paris. Correct me if I am wrong.

[Deleted User]

Not while people behave like this. https://www.rte.ie/news/dublin/2018/1113/1010531-st-cuthberts-park-clondalkin/

Sweet.Science

Build more homes etc - its so easy

https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/clondalkin-stop-social-homes-building-15404822

Next phase was due in Darndale behind a halting site. I wonder how that one will pan out

Shenshen

mammajamma wrote: »

Precisely! If it were only the housing crisis as it stands, we'd all be left scratching our heads anyway.

But its the combination of that, PLUS another million people? I just cant get my head wrapped around the idiocy of it all.

An analogy. There is a crisis with healthcare. The government willingly admits that its vision is to close 80% of all clinics and hospitals within 20 years...!!!!!

What?!

I was being rather tongue-in-cheek here, promoting emigration just because we can't step up and provide appropriate housing seems a bit harsh.

Wheeliebin30

mike pence wrote: »

lol as you're furiously typing chancellor merkel is printing 1 million new german passports for her refugees
you have not seen anything yet

You are absolutely clueless.

The 2040 plan is to take into account our growling population.

It’s noy that we’re gonna import 1 million immigrants.

You’re talking ****e.

More fake news.

The Tetrarch

Will the housing issue be solved is not a good question.
It is a bit like asking will there ever be full employment.

Almost everyone has a place to stay every night.
The "housing issue" is they are not satisfied, want to own a house, and want it mortgage and rent free.
Until every man, woman, child, baby has their own mansion then the housing issue will not be settled. And the issue then will be who will pay for the upkeep.

An economy works by competition for employment, housing, everything.

Mr. teddywinkles

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

We don’t have the money to build 100s of thousands of social houses.

See our budget?

2.5 billion a year paying back our bailout.

There isn’t much left to do anything with after that.

You can thank FF for that.

Who will be probably voted back in next election.

The funny thing about that is it was excess housing stock that caused the debt.

Mr. teddywinkles

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

There's one obvious elephant in the room which is never discussed - we as a species are moronically overpopulating the world by reproducing at increasing rates while simultaneously (and obviously rightly) chasing the ultimate achievement of longer and longer lifespans. And yet we still live in a culture in which those who choose not to reproduce for whatever reason are looked down upon, nagged, pressured etc by others. That has to change, and sometime soon before we've completely gone off the deep end.

I'd go so far as to say that the state should somehow incentivise or reward those who choose not to contribute to overpopulation in this way. I don't believe in coercive or punitive measures to force people not to contribute to overpopulation, like the barbaric crap which goes on in China - but I don't see why we couldn't introduce some kind of benefit or reward from those who choose to be responsible and not contribute towards pushing humanity over the edge of sustainability as a species.

Is population in western countries not in decline? Exclude the migration habits and I'd say yad be in for a shock.

Hector Savage

Sir Oxman

Deleted User wrote: »

Not while people behave like this. https://www.rte.ie/news/dublin/2018/1113/1010531-st-cuthberts-park-clondalkin/

The word from the area in Clondalkin is a major drugs gang operate in and around that field and it's them causing misery now for the workers and trying to stop "their" patch being taken over.

That's a law and order problem.

Who the hell picks the sites and doesn't know that major criminals with a very big interest in the plot aren't just going to let it happen?

No planning, no idea, no law and order.

Sweet.Science

Sir Oxman wrote: »

The word from the area in Clondalkin is a major drugs gang operate in and around that field and it's them causing misery now for the workers and trying to stop "their" patch being taken over.

That's a law and order problem.

Who the hell picks the sites and doesn't know that major criminals with a very big interest in the plot aren't just going to let it happen?

No planning, no idea, no law and order.

These areas are picked because they are on the only areas they will get the go ahead. You ever wonder why these hosuing projects dont happen in Killiney or Foxrock

Raging_Ninja

The problem with the housing crisis isn't due to a lack of government intervention, it's due to far too much government intervention.

Back in 2013 the FG/Labour government changed the regulations around bedsits which at the stroke of a pen removed 10,000 bedsits from the market in Dublin alone.

The RTB have made it such that if a tenant stops paying rent it can take a year or more plus 10k+ in legal fees to evict them legally. The Accomodation forum here is repeated with tales of bad tenants and the difficulty of getting rid of them being the reason so many are exiting he market. There was a 2% net decrease in rental stock in the state in 2017, but that figure was reached only by adding in all the government and local authority housing - if you remove those, it was almost 4% of private rental stock leaving the market in that time.

Rent is also taxed heavily, the government takes over half the money you pay in rent from the landlord.

In Dublin the council voted to remove the height restriction on new builds, but then in a hugely hypocritical move they consistently deny permission to build taller buildings.

If you simply get the government out of the way and stop them from holding people back, then you will see the free market starting to work.

Assetbacked

Raging_Ninja wrote: »

The problem with the housing crisis isn't due to a lack of government intervention, it's due to far too much government intervention.

Back in 2013 the FG/Labour government changed the regulations around bedsits which at the stroke of a pen removed 10,000 bedsits from the market in Dublin alone.

The RTB have made it such that if a tenant stops paying rent it can take a year or more plus 10k+ in legal fees to evict them legally. The Accomodation forum here is repeated with tales of bad tenants and the difficulty of getting rid of them being the reason so many are exiting he market. There was a 2% net decrease in rental stock in the state in 2017, but that figure was reached only by adding in all the government and local authority housing - if you remove those, it was almost 4% of private rental stock leaving the market in that time.

Rent is also taxed heavily, the government takes over half the money you pay in rent from the landlord.

In Dublin the council voted to remove the height restriction on new builds, but then in a hugely hypocritical move they consistently deny permission to build taller buildings.

If you simply get the government out of the way and stop them from holding people back, then you will see the free market starting to work.

REITs pay zero tax on the rent they take - the same REITs that hoovered up the majority of the undeveloped sites in Dublin as sold by NAMA (the acquisition of which they also paid no tax on). The largest landlord in the State is a REIT and pays no tax on rental income.

Finally, there was no obligation on the REITs to use the land and develop it for apartments instead of office space when it was acquired from NAMA.

All of the above is a direct result of the cluelessness of FF and FG on the operation and impact of NAMA and the activities of insitutionals (including REITs). This is the main reason that there is a severe lack of apartment blocks being built in Dublin and therefore the main cause of the rental crisis in Dublin at least. Meanwhile, ordinary people are expected to pay huge chunks of income on rent, most likely pay to commute on top of that but are not being given one bit of help from the government (i.e. with an acknowledgement of the severity of the crisis and introducing significant tax breaks/reductions for workers who rent).

See the following speech from Minister Murphy in the Dail recently on the whole crisis http://www.eoghanmurphy.ie/2018/10/05/homeless-crisis-fixing-housing/ This demonstrates an entire lack of consideration of or intention to ensuring rents drop to sustainable levels for those that have to pay private landlords for their rent.

CucaFace

The problem is that as far as I can see is that in the time of a housing crisis the vast majority of builds in the city centre of Dublin/docklands area have been offices, hotels and student accommodation (aimed at short term international students). Neither will help with the chronic shortage for those of us who actually live in the city.

So who the hell is regulating the planning of the city and not taking this into account?

Facebook just announced 5,000 new jobs, and will build offices for this. But where the hell will these workers live? The vast majority of these jobs will be new people coming into this city so that will be 5,000 more direct competition for beds in the city from that one announcement alone. That's probably more then the city will provide in one year so we are not even getting near to solving the problem we are in fact falling behind, really down to the success of our low tax foreign investment industry which is great on the one hand, but due to zero ability of anyone in the Government or the DCC to actually plan for this we (renters) will pay for the constant uselessness of civil servants/public sector workers who will never be held to account for this.

Just wait until Brexit actually happens and then we see far more of the youth of France/Italy/Spain who have been going to the UK to find work now turning to Dublin as their next place to move to get their lives started.... God knows the shortage that will occur here then. And im not having a go at these people coming here, its actually great for the country and it makes Dublin a far better place, its the fact our own stupidity will have meant we will all suffer as a result of this.

Raging_Ninja

Assetbacked wrote: »

REITs pay zero tax on the rent they take - the same REITs that hoovered up the majority of the undeveloped sites in Dublin as sold by NAMA (the acquisition of which they also paid no tax on). The largest landlord in the State is a REIT and pays no tax on rental income.

Finally, there was no obligation on the REITs to use the land and develop it for apartments instead of office space when it was acquired from NAMA.

All of the above a direct result of the cluelessness of FF and FG of NAMA and the REITs. This is the main reason that there is a severe lack of apartment blocks being built in Dublin and therefore the main cause of the rental crisis in Dublin at least. Meanwhile, ordinary people are expected to pay huge chunks of income on rent, most likely pay to commute on top of that but are not being given one bit of help from the government (i.e. with an acknowledgement of the severity of the crisis and introducing significant tax breaks/reductions for workers who rent).

See the following speech from Minister Murphy in the Dail recently on the whole crisis http://www.eoghanmurphy.ie/2018/10/05/homeless-crisis-fixing-housing/ This demonstrates an entire lack of consideration of or intention to ensuring rents drop to sustainable levels for those that have to pay private landlords for their rent.

When you consider the risks of renting out your property as housing in the current regulatory environment, can you really blame people for trying to protect their investments and renting out their property as office space?

Fact is, until the regulatory environment is changed and the government stops interfering in the housing market this problem is not going to be solved any time soon. Every time they try to do something they just make things worse.

Elemonator

If it is not solved it will only fuel the brain drain. I know that by the time I have a Masters and qualified in my field I'm leaving the country. I actually want to be able to live my life.

Wanderer78

Currently, this is unresolvable, no matter who's voted in

Assetbacked

Elemonator wrote: »

If it is not solved it will only fuel the brain drain. I know that by the time I have a Masters and qualified in my field I'm leaving the country. I actually want to be able to live my life.

Absolutely, it is a numbers game for people and companies. It will turn into a situation where Dublin is not worth it to live in for people anymore (if this is not already occurring).

If you go to numbeo.com and compare the average price of rent versus the average salaries against other major European cities, you are better off working on an average salary and renting elsewhere than in Dublin in almost all cases. Some differences are huge (particularly Germany, where salaries are higher on average), as follows;

Madrid v Dublin
Rent Prices are 85.57% higher in Dublin.
Average monthly salaries (after tax) are 65.46% higher in Dublin.

You would need around 4,735.13€ in Dublin to maintain the same standard of life that you can have with 3,200.00€ in Madrid (assuming you rent in both cities).

Paris v Dublin
Rent Prices are 23.92% higher in Dublin.
Average monthly salaries (after tax) are 0.33% lower in Dublin.

You would need around 4,744.22€ in Dublin to maintain the same standard of life that you can have with 4,600.00€ in Paris (assuming you rent in both cities).

Munich v Dublin
Rent Prices are 35.27% higher in Dublin.
Average monthly salaries (after tax) are 6.57% lower in Dublin.

You would need around 4,785.12€ in Dublin to maintain the same standard of life that you can have with 4,100.00€ in Munich (assuming you rent in both cities).

Lisbon v Dublin
Rent Prices are 94.71% higher in Dublin.
Average monthly salaries (after tax) are 176.69% higher in Dublin.

You would need around 4,706.84€ in Dublin to maintain the same standard of life that you can have with 2,900.00€ in Lisbon (assuming you rent in both cities).

Copenhagen v Dublin
Rent Prices are 24.36% higher in Dublin.
Average monthly salaries (after tax) are 16.40% lower in Dublin.

You would need around 35,830.44kr (4,803.04€) in Dublin to maintain the same standard of life that you can have with 35,000.00kr (4,690€) in Copenhagen (assuming you rent in both cities).

Amsterdam v Dublin
Rent Prices are 1.07% higher in Dublin.
Average monthly salaries (after tax) are 6.83% lower in Dublin.

You would need around 4,750.47€ in Dublin to maintain the same standard of life that you can have with 4,700.00€ in Amsterdam (assuming you rent in both cities).

Brussels v Dublin
Rent Prices are 27.44% higher in Dublin.
Average monthly salaries (after tax) are 18.55% higher in Dublin.

You would need around 4,715.19€ in Dublin to maintain the same standard of life that you can have with 3,700.00€ in Brussels (assuming you rent in both cities).

London v Dublin
Rent Prices are 16.39% lower in Dublin.
Average monthly salaries (after tax) are 18.56% lower in Dublin.

You would need around 4,126.78£ (4,726.40€) in Dublin to maintain the same standard of life that you can have with 4,600.00£ in London (assuming you rent in both cities).

Frankfurt v Dublin

Rent Prices are 72.04% higher in Dublin.
Average monthly salaries (after tax) are 5.75% lower in Dublin.

You would need around 4,777.59€ in Dublin to maintain the same standard of life that you can have with 3,700.00€ in Frankfurt (assuming you rent in both cities).

mammajamma

A new report from the ESRI proposes that more immigration is needed to build more housing.

Make sense to you?

https://www.esri.ie/pubs/RN20180401.pdf

mammajamma

Elemonator wrote: »

If it is not solved it will only fuel the brain drain. I know that by the time I have a Masters and qualified in my field I'm leaving the country. I actually want to be able to live my life.

That is exactly the desired effect, get rid of people who would rightfully demand a decent quality of life, replace them with people who will settle for far less.

Theres going to have to come a point where we stop allowing this downward cycle to continue. Leaving plays into the narrative, but then you only have one life to live as well.

People need to start actively opposing this system, or else your children will be left to the wind as well.

Amirani

https://england.shelter.org.uk/professional_resources/policy_and_research/policy_library/policy_library_folder/research_homelessness_in_great_britain_-_the_numbers_behind_the_story

320,000 people recorded as homeless in England and Wales in figures released today.

This is massively above the rate in Ireland. We do have a homelessness problem here, but it's by no means a problem unique to Ireland. Our rates aren't out of line with the rest of the EU/OECD.

mammajamma

Amirani wrote: »

https://england.shelter.org.uk/professional_resources/policy_and_research/policy_library/policy_library_folder/research_homelessness_in_great_britain_-_the_numbers_behind_the_story

320,000 people recorded as homeless in England and Wales in figures released today.

This is massively above the rate in Ireland. We do have a homelessness problem here, but it's by no means a problem unique to Ireland. Our rates aren't out of line with the rest of the EU/OECD.

I think some people conflate "housing crisis" with "homeless crisis". They are linked but not the same.

In reality, it is actually an affordability crisis. I know people working full time Jobs, not minimum wage, and have zero money left at the end of the month. All gone on rent.

That means they can't save. That leaves one choice, either continue working for nothing, or move in with relatives to try save some money.

Neither of these groups will be readily detected in statistics. An invisible group (and gigantic group, imo).

previous user

Burn everything, burn them all.