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After Hours Presidential Election Poll

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The polls are pretty one sided so far but let's see where the good people of After Hours stand a week out from the election....

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[Deleted User]

Lilly Fat Below wrote: »

Sorry if this is stupid, but does his odds doubling mean he's twice as likely to get in as was predicted before?

No they believe his chances have reduced but he still is very much the favourite

1/50 earlier means put on 50 to receive 1 back
1/25 now means put on 25 to receive 1 back

You also get back the 50 or 25 you put on.

McMurphy

Lilly Fat Below wrote: »

Sorry if this is stupid, but does his odds doubling mean he's twice as likely to get in as was predicted before?

No, it means paddy power are 50% less sure he'll win.

1-50 means if you put 50e on him winning you would get 1e back plus your 50e.
1-25 means they'll half those odds, ie if you put 50e on him to win you would get 2€ back.

1-25 is the opposite of 25-1 where if you put a euro on, and the bet came in you would get 25e back plus your euro.

JeffKenna

Seems to have gone into 8/15 in the betting without Michael D so paddy Power are making him firm favourite to finish second.

Zubeneschamali

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

No, it means paddy power are 50% less sure he'll win.

No, it really doesn't, Paddy is smarter than that. No-one is going to put €50 on MichaelD to win €1. No-one is going to put €25 on MichaelD to win €1, either. So Paddy can adjust these odds as he likes, there wil be no volume.

But if Paddy can convince punters that Casey is coming in from 200/1 to evens, they'll run in and take a punt while they still can at 10/1.

Which Paddy will pocket, because MichaelD is going to win.

PlaneSpeeking

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, it really doesn't, Paddy is smarter than that. No-one is going to put €50 on MichaelD to win €1. No-one is going to put €25 on MichaelD to win €1, either. So Paddy can adjust these odds as he likes, there wil be no volume.

But if Paddy can convince punters that Casey is coming in from 200/1 to evens, they'll run in and take a punt while they still can at 10/1.

Which Paddy will pocket, because MichaelD is going to win.

You know an awful lot of "absolutes". Not one single "in my opinion...".

Are you from the future ?

Zubeneschamali

PlaneSpeeking wrote: »

You know an awful lot of "absolutes". Not one single "in my opinion...".

Are you from the future ?

We shall see.

McMurphy

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, it really doesn't, Paddy is smarter than that. No-one is going to put €50 on MichaelD to win €1. No-one is going to put €25 on MichaelD to win €1, either. So Paddy can adjust these odds as he likes, there wil be no volume.

But if Paddy can convince punters that Casey is coming in from 200/1 to evens, they'll run in and take a punt while they still can at 10/1.

Which Paddy will pocket, because MichaelD is going to win.

If I was as cock sure as you seem to be, and I had a spare 25k lying around, I'd make myself a sure thing 1k, and take me and the Mrs off somewhere extra special for a long weekend sometime.

Just saying..

PlaneSpeeking

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

We shall see.

Let's test it - what will be Casey's percentage after the final declaration ?

I'm going 30% of the vote. In my opinion.

Zubeneschamali

PlaneSpeeking wrote: »

Let's test it - what will be Casey's percentage after the final declaration ?

I'm going 30% of the vote. In my opinion.

12%

[Edit - for clarity, that is my guess at Casey's shere of the first and only count]

troyzer

PlaneSpeeking wrote: »

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

We shall see.

Let's test it - what will be Casey's percentage after the final declaration ?

I'm going 30% of the vote. In my opinion.

Lol.

PlaneSpeeking

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

12%

See you after the final vote then, you too Trouser. sic.

ThunbergsAreGo

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

With a lack of any real opinion poll in over a week, I'm going to be keeping an eye on paddy power odds.

Higgins odds have doubled.

I'm not sure of the predicted landslide, if them odds continue to rise, and with the assumption that PP conducts it's own polls, I'll be even less sure of it.

Doubled to 1/25!!

dav3

Lilly Fat Below wrote: »

Sorry if this is stupid, but does his odds doubling mean he's twice as likely to get in as was predicted before?

1/50 means they give him around a 98% chance of winning.
1/25 means they give him around a 96% chance of winning.

500/1 means they give him around a 0.2% chance of winning.
100/1 means they give him around a 1% chance of winning.

Moving from 500/1 to 100/1 doesn't take an awful lot in regards to the amount of money and number of bets being put on.

However, the people shilling for one particular bookmaker on here are unlikely to tell you that.

Allinall

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

If I was as cock sure as you seem to be, and I had a spare 25k lying around, I'd make myself a sure thing 1k, and take me and the Mrs off somewhere extra special for a long weekend sometime.

Just saying..

If you had a spare €25k lying around, would you not take the Mrs away anyway ?

FrancieBrady

dav3 wrote: »

Moving from 500/1 to 100/1 doesn't take an awful lot in regards to the amount of money and number of bets being put on.

.

I said this earlier. The above shifting of the odds is primarily designed to dislodge some more money from the hands of fools.

scotchy

Im looking forward to Saturday when results start rolling in.

I think Paddy Power is as in the dark as the rest of us as to how close PC is to MDH, and he is close IMO.

Ive money on PC at 100/1 and 12/1 WO MDH. The WO MDH bet is in the bag:cool:. Yesterday i thought there was no way PC would win, Now I'm not so sure.

A lot of imponderables. People not admitting they're voting for PC, 2nd preferences, low turnout favoring PC?

Roll on Saturday. Football and election results.

.

Zubeneschamali

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

If I was as cock sure as you seem to be, and I had a spare 25k lying around, I'd make myself a sure thing 1k

I, on the other hand, am not an idiot.

weldoninhio

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

If I was as cock sure as you seem to be, and I had a spare 25k lying around, I'd make myself a sure thing 1k, and take me and the Mrs off somewhere extra special for a long weekend sometime.

Just saying..

Exactly, how long would it take you to earn €1k off €25k if it was sitting in a bank.

PlaneSpeeking

scotchy wrote: »

Im looking forward to Saturday when results start rolling in.

I think Paddy Power is as in the dark as the rest of us as to how close PC is to MDH, and he is close IMO.

Ive money on PC at 100/1 and 12/1 WO MDH. The WO MDH bet is in the bag:cool:. Yesterday i thought there was no way PC would win, Now I'm not so sure.

A lot of imponderables. People not admitting they're voting for PC, 2nd preferences, low turnout favoring PC?
roll on Saturday. Football and election results.

.

I can't log in to my account at the min but I think I've a tenner at 16s on Casey without Dobby.

Nice BH drinks that!

GoneHome

scotchy wrote: »

Ive money on PC at 100/1 and 12/1 WO MDH. The WO MDH bet is in the bag:cool:. Yesterday i thought there was no way PC would win, Now I'm not so sure.

I've a few bob on PC to get over 18% of the vote at 4/1

AudreyHepburn

Lilly Fat Below wrote: »

Why is the poll on this thread so completely out of kilter with national polls, media predictions etc.

Are Boards.ie members a complete anamoly?

Because a lot of Boards members (not all) like to be seen as cool and edgy. They like be outraged and reactionary rather than thinking through things logically. They like jumping on bandwagons rather than thinking for themselves.

4068ac1elhodqr

Med101007 wrote: »

Casey has gone into 10/1 now with Paddy Power.
Is it time to lump on?

A. Absoloutley not.

Would never reccommend lumping on anything, and particularly now when any potential value has been well and truly sucked out of the market.

Besides this price is about 1/10th of what it was earlier this week - The skill would have been in the foresight to back him, during the short window after he re-confirmed he'd actually be running (after ruffling some feathers), thus just before the slow and steady price crash.

Although the best market (W/O Higgs) wasn't available as an accumulator line selection, using other similar (% markets), (as line selections) helps with overall risk reduction.

Anyone who did back PC at 80-100/1 can now effectively 'sell this bet' and profit, using a direct lay (bit like a reverse bet) upon it.

[Deleted User]

naughtb4 wrote: »

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Incumbents lose their seats in every general and local elections. It's not unusual at all, when you have alternative candidates that aren't utter dicks.

And as he said himself, Higgins has been turning up since 1969.

A socialist president has overseen ”record homelessness"

Presidents don't oversee housing policy or any policy

PlaneSpeeking

AudreyHepburn wrote: »

Because a lot of Boards members (not all) like to be seen as cool and edgy. They like be outraged and reactionary rather than thinking through things logically. They like jumping on bandwagons rather than thinking for themselves.

Yeah I'm not sure you know what cool and edgy means there!

Last time I thought I was cool was buying a The The LP and telling everyone to call me Green like yer man from Scritti Politti.

Voting Peter Casey is not adding me to the list.

eeepaulo

Kamden Fit Worker wrote: »

A. Absoloutley not.

Would never reccommend lumping on anything, and particularly now when any potential value has been well and truly sucked out of the market.

Besides this price is about 1/10th of what it was earlier this week - The skill would have been in the foresight to back him, during the short window after he re-confirmed he'd actually be running (after ruffling some feathers), thus just before the slow and steady price crash.

Although the best market (W/O Higgs) wasn't available as an accumulator line selection, using other similar (% markets), (as line selections) helps with overall risk reduction.

Anyone who did back PC at 80-100/1 can now effectively 'sell this bet' and profit, using a direct lay (bit like a reverse bet) upon it.

I had 50 cent at 500-1 way back, just so i could make a joke about it being settled to be honest.

Would i be as well off lumping €200 on michael d? I'd be up €8 or €50

AudreyHepburn

PlaneSpeeking wrote: »

Yeah I'm not sure you know what cool and edgy means there!

Last time I thought I was cool was buying a The The LP and telling everyone to call me Green like yer man from Scritti Politti.

Voting Peter Casey is not adding me to the list.

I meant it in the sense of wanting to be seen as In with In Crowd.

At the moment it seems to be in or cool or edgy to vote Casey and act as if MDH is the worst president we’ve ever had.

weldoninhio

AudreyHepburn wrote: »

I meant it in the sense of wanting to be seen as In with In Crowd.

At the moment it seems to be in or cool or edgy to vote Casey and act as if MDH is the worst president we’ve ever had.

No one goes into the polling booth with you. And this is an anonymous website. If someone thinks/is trying to be cool or edgy by giving an anonymous opinion that says more about them than anything else.

PlaneSpeeking

AudreyHepburn wrote: »

I meant it in the sense of wanting to be seen as In with In Crowd.

At the moment it seems to be in or cool or edgy to vote Casey and act as if MDH is the worst president we’ve ever had.

But I thought MDH was going "win by a landslide", surely that would be seen as the "in crowd" by largesse of numbers ?

Here's a mad idea for you - what if people are voting and commenting based on what they think and believe ?

I know I am.

AudreyHepburn

PlaneSpeeking wrote: »

But I thought MDH was going "win by a landslide", surely that would be seen as the "in crowd" by largesse of numbers ?

Here's a mad idea for you - what if people are voting and commenting based on what they think and believe ?

I know I am.

Oh I don’t doubt he’ll win though the margin might not be as big as previously thought.

Thing is though a lot of people are jumping on the bandwagon and voting in protest or because they agree with Casey on Travellers and for no other reason.

And I just don’t understand what they hope to achieve or why they think he’s some Messiah who’s going to magically change things.

4068ac1elhodqr

eeepaulo wrote: »

I had 50 cent at 500-1 way back, just so i could make a joke about it being settled to be honest.

Would i be as well off lumping €200 on michael d? I'd be up €8 or €50

Probably not, your risk exposure is extremely low so would just enjoy it as entertainment.

The best price (current) laying Higgs is 1.06 (subject to commission) i.e. outlay 100 (risk) to (gain) just 6notes. You'd ideally want to wait for or target 1.20+ (set a bit like a stock stop-limit) at least, which would be a much more accurate estimate anyway.

Perhaps the best solution on this (single item) would be to look for a early cash-out (even at reduced). You're PTE is €250.50, so wait to be offered, or ask for just 100-125 notes.

// Correction: Best Higgs lay price is actually 1.23 (gain 23% if he looses) which is fair and accurate as of today, worth consideration, but again may be subject to commission.