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Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

MOD NOTE:

This Thread is for discussing Fridays threat of severe weather only. It could get very busy and posters are reminded to stay on topic.

In everybody's best interest their will be a zero tolerance to posters dragging the thread off topic and into disarray , posts will be removed that do not adhere to this request.

Posters wishing to discuss matters in relation to Met Eireann can discuss it here https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056857470 (whilst abiding by the Forum charter) and not on this thread.

Please help keep this thread running smoothly for all by adhering with the Mod Team's request.

Thank You.

Have been observing the models align regards the potential for some very disturbed weather at the end of the week. ECM, GFS, UKMO and GEM all showing a very deep Storm develop towards Fri and have been bringing it closer to Ireland over the last couple of days. Most notable today is that the ECM has brought it very close and is at this early stage showing very strong winds over much of Ireland. Again to point out this is still in the unreliable timeframe but at present shows it looking more severe than Storm Ali in that there is potential for higher winds and over a much longer timeframe as the system moves slowly up off the W coast, possibly taking most of Fri into Sat to clear the country . Along with the winds there is potential for very heavy rains also. Just coming out of Spring tides by Fri but this system is showing a very low pressure of 950 hPa so an increase in the height of the tide could be expected and as there is a lot of rain forecast along W and NW counties before this Storm then run off meeting a tidal surge could cause flooding.

Have been deliberating whether to start a thread on this or not but I think it is a good opportunity to test the accuracy of the models and it has been shaping up over a few days now to be potentially a severe weather event. Nothing lost if it gets downgraded, this is a record of the guidance available about upcoming weather and an effort to piece the information together . Can change the thread title if and when requires.

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PLL

bb12 wrote: »

Faustino wrote: »

I think this probably has more to do with Ali catching people off guard.

It seemed the worst of it was on the school runs and it was certainly dangerous enough to heed an orange warning bordering on red in parts.

Tonight could be just as bad in parts and trees already weakened by Ali could be dangerous coming into tomorrow.

One of my youngish but large (40 years old) ash trees in my front boundary crashed down and blocked the road at 9:15 am that morning of Ali. One my cctv cameras was attached to it and my neighbour who had just dropped her kids to school and was on the way home drove under the tree exactly 60 seconds before it fell.

It’s why I’m not asking should I go anywhere. I know I’m not going anywhere.

Storm 10

You can watch Galway Harbour on this Web Cam updates every 30 second just look how high the tide i's now with no wind

https://www.farsondigitalwatercams.com/locations/galway-city

idle

Some fast moving dark clouds appearing after what was a sunny ‘calm before the storm’ kind of day.

South Kerry coast

Whirl_wolle

When is this likely to hit the west. I need to get home to charge devices especially the e cigarettes and I don't know when I be getting out of work at. In case the power goes out.

Rhineshark

Whirl_wolle wrote: »

When is this likely to hit the west. I need to get home to charge devices especially the e cigarettes and I don't know when I be getting out of work at. In case the power goes out.

Depends what part of the west but midnight for mid-west as I recall. Bit earlier for southwest.

irishrover99

Don’t forget your hanging baskets and it would have to bin collection day and no notifications from Thorntons about any changes to their service.

redsteveireland

Chat - https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057919045

fred funk }{

Just looking at the size of this on earth null at it's a monster.

Meteorite58

Looks like a couple of hours of the strongest winds for most apart from those on the SW/ W /NW coasts. Winds moderating fairly quickly for most after the front goes through.

Meteorite58

ARPEGE 12Z Max Winds

AROME 12Z Max Winds

Sundew

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

I have never seen such a nice 'calm before a storm'. Lough Corrib looks magical.

Its been a glorious afternoon and evening in Sth Galway. Not a breeze after a very blustery week, and actually feels like a Spring evening as birds were singing their little hearts out.
Hard to believe all the activity that’s hurtling towards the West Coast. Bring it on! Thanks again to all the regular weather gurus for keeping us updated and informed!

antodeco

Some extremely strong winds for Dublin at peak travel time. Asked them in work to circulate an email around asking people to take laptops home, just in case. Said it won't be too windy! People will take any excuse not to go to work on a Friday haha.

Completed my prep anyway. My olive trees are now as protected as possible and my bins and locked down. Ali killed my BBQ last time so have that locked down!

Gaoth Laidir

Nice satellite loop showing cloudtop heights. Note the speed of the lowest (red/orange) clouds just behind the main frontal band (cyan/white).

http://www.nwcsaf.org/AemetWebContents/ReferenceSystem/GEO/ProductsPages/ReferenceSystem_GEO_CTTH_ctth_alti_LOOP.html

Gaoth Laidir

Airport warnings out. Cork showing the highest at 60 knots.

SHANNON EINN AD WRNG 01 VALID 112300/121100 SFC WIND SE 30-35KT MAX 50-55 BECMG 1203/1205 SSW 25-30 MAX 40-45 FCST =

CORK EICK AD WRNG 01 VALID 112100/121100 SFC WIND SSE 35-40KT MAX 55-60 BECMG 1202/1204 SSW 20-25 MAX 35-40 FCST =

DUBLIN EIDW AD WRNG 01 VALID 120001/121200 SFC WIND SSE 25-30KT MAX 50-55 BECMG 1204/1206 SSW 25-30 MAX 40-45 BECMG 1207/1209 SSW 35-40 FCST =

CASEMENT EIME AD WRNG 01 VALID 120001/121200 SFC WIND SSE 30-35KT MAX 50-55 BECMG 1204/1206 SSW 20-25 MAX 40-45 FCST =

KNOCK EIKN AD WRNG 01 VALID 120001/121300 SFC WIND SE 25-30KT MAX 50-55 BECMG 1204/1206 SSW 25-30 MAX 45-50 FCST =

Meteorite58

Outer edge of the system approaching the coast.

Gaoth Laidir

Met Éireann's aviation chart for 00Z shows Callum's centre of 937 hPa around 300 NM west of Kerry. The frontal triple point is right over north Kerry, moving northeastwards at 45 knots. Isolated heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms ahead of this, with showers and isolated thunderstorms behind the following cold front. 2000-ft wind at the triple point 70 knots.

Rikand

Hard to believe theres a storm coming at all. Just had the most perfect evening in Athlone

northgirl

Same here, stunning day here in Cork City.

Meteorite58

Could get some thunderstorms up along the W coast

http://www.estofex.org/

ESTOFEX

Northern Atlantic into Ireland

Late in the period, intense cyclogenesis takes place across the Atlantic. The center of a strong storm will move northward west of Ireland. A mid-level front is expected to spread over rich low-level moisture and some CAPE is expected to develop. It is not ruled out that some storms can form Friday morning. With very strong vertical wind shear, small mesocyclones and bowing lines are likely to form, capable of producing severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

Gaoth Laidir

Waterford Airport TAF (valid to 4 am) gives gusts to 60 knots.

Purely going on the TAF, Dublin's winds should peak just before the start of the morning rush (55 knots between 2 and 5 am), but may affect the early transatlantics (Boston, etc.). For the rush itself (after 6 am) a slight veer to 190 ° and gusting 45 knots on a wet runway 16 may cause delays for a time. Crosswind limits are greatly reduced for a wet runway compared to a dry one, though it should be drying out fairly quickly as rain is timed to end at 5 am.

TAF EIDW 111700Z 1118/1218 17009KT 9999 FEW020 SCT035
BECMG 1122/1124 16020G35KT
BECMG 1200/1202 15025G45KT
TEMPO 1201/1204 16030G55KT 4000 RA BKN010
BECMG 1204/1206 19025G45KT
BECMG 1207/1209 20020G35KT
TEMPO 1210/1212 20025G40KT

gozunda

Atmospheric Pressure averaging out at 980 hpa over the last 24 hours. Now just waiting for it to start dropping as storm approaches ...

Meteorite58

Came fairly close !

https://twitter.com/wxcharts/status/1050461183566860288

Doctors room ghost

Was just outside and you would swear it’s a night for a grass frost.eerily calm and a grand clear sky.thats in Galway

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/1050448953546817538

randomname2005

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

Was just outside and you would swear it’s a night for a grass frost.eerily calm and a grand clear sky.thats in Galway

Same here mid Galway

Sardonicat

randomname2005 wrote: »

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

Was just outside and you would swear it’s a night for a grass frost.eerily calm and a grand clear sky.thats in Galway

Same here mid Galway

Already getting blustery in Tralee

SleetAndSnow

Starting to get windy in cork city. Chances of this going a bit further east are still possible I’m assuming? Ophelia did it last second if I remember correctly so anything’s possible. Always prepare!

Beechwoodspark

Graces7 wrote: »

Darkening rapidly now and anything that rattles in gales is starting its arrhythmic warning. Only other sound is the lead cow mooing as my neighbour leads them to shelter for the night, collie bounding along behind, a sight as ancient as "the whirling wind's tempestuous shocks" Saint Patrick wrote about in the 5th century.

Long night ahead, of battering and winnowing, rehearsing quietly already..

The island has no trees to destroy, no tall buildings. Anything wind can destroy long since gone or anchored down. Often the ferryman will bring his boat in out of the water when gales approach.

My internet connection is coming and going so may not get back here a while. Will see how it goes. As we all will.

Stay safe...

West Mayo, offshore island, a small field away from the great ocean

Some on this thread have a great way with words

thomil

Light rain starting here in Ballincollig, Co. Cork, and it is starting to get blustery. Barometer dipped to 993 mbar in the last few minutes.

Let's see how this goes.

Beechwoodspark

Calm and clear in Adamstown. Nothing very notable so far anyway