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Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

MOD NOTE:

This Thread is for discussing Fridays threat of severe weather only. It could get very busy and posters are reminded to stay on topic.

In everybody's best interest their will be a zero tolerance to posters dragging the thread off topic and into disarray , posts will be removed that do not adhere to this request.

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Thank You.

Have been observing the models align regards the potential for some very disturbed weather at the end of the week. ECM, GFS, UKMO and GEM all showing a very deep Storm develop towards Fri and have been bringing it closer to Ireland over the last couple of days. Most notable today is that the ECM has brought it very close and is at this early stage showing very strong winds over much of Ireland. Again to point out this is still in the unreliable timeframe but at present shows it looking more severe than Storm Ali in that there is potential for higher winds and over a much longer timeframe as the system moves slowly up off the W coast, possibly taking most of Fri into Sat to clear the country . Along with the winds there is potential for very heavy rains also. Just coming out of Spring tides by Fri but this system is showing a very low pressure of 950 hPa so an increase in the height of the tide could be expected and as there is a lot of rain forecast along W and NW counties before this Storm then run off meeting a tidal surge could cause flooding.

Have been deliberating whether to start a thread on this or not but I think it is a good opportunity to test the accuracy of the models and it has been shaping up over a few days now to be potentially a severe weather event. Nothing lost if it gets downgraded, this is a record of the guidance available about upcoming weather and an effort to piece the information together . Can change the thread title if and when requires.

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cherryghost

ICON runs. Small differences, small upgrade. Small eastward shift again. I missed the earlier graphs but this is max speed over the course of the run (4pm today- 5pm tomorrow). Most of those strong winds hit between 4-7am with a kick again in the NW around lunchtime.

Previous Run:

Current Run:

Mount Vesuvius

Just looking back at Storm Ali highest recorded gusts and nearly all were between 90kph to 110kph.
The trees in full leaf played a big part in downing them.

I still see lots of trees with plenty of leaves so perhaps a similar event is on the cards.

It's winding up well now.

Mount Vesuvius

That second attack looking more likely on the south east and East.

bb12

Faustino wrote: »

I think this probably has more to do with Ali catching people off guard.

It seemed the worst of it was on the school runs and it was certainly dangerous enough to heed an orange warning bordering on red in parts.

Tonight could be just as bad in parts and trees already weakened by Ali could be dangerous coming into tomorrow.

One of my youngish but large (40 years old) ash trees in my front boundary crashed down and blocked the road at 9:15 am that morning of Ali. One my cctv cameras was attached to it and my neighbour who had just dropped her kids to school and was on the way home drove under the tree exactly 60 seconds before it fell.

Kutebride

Great map above Mount Vesuvius.

Dry and bright in Meath.

Oscar Bravo

Looking out towards Clare Island on what is a very nice afternoon,before Callum arrives

Sycamore Tree

bb12 wrote: »

Faustino wrote: »

I think this probably has more to do with Ali catching people off guard.

It seemed the worst of it was on the school runs and it was certainly dangerous enough to heed an orange warning bordering on red in parts.

Tonight could be just as bad in parts and trees already weakened by Ali could be dangerous coming into tomorrow.

One of my youngish but large (40 years old) ash trees in my front boundary crashed down and blocked the road at 9:15 am that morning of Ali. One my cctv cameras was attached to it and my neighbour who had just dropped her kids to school and was on the way home drove under the tree exactly 60 seconds before it fell.

Ash is notorious for being weak rooted and falling or losing branches. Most of the Ash trees here in Galway have lost their leaves now which makes a big difference. I don't expect many trees to fall tonight in comparison to Ali which was utter mayhem.

The One Doctor

bb12 wrote: »

One of my youngish but large (40 years old) ash trees in my front boundary crashed down and blocked the road at 9:15 am that morning of Ali. One my cctv cameras was attached to it and my neighbour who had just dropped her kids to school and was on the way home drove under the tree exactly 60 seconds before it fell.

Get rid of the ash trees beside it, their root system will have been weakened further by the fall.

trixi001

Query out there for the technical wizards
I work in Newry (and living further North, along the East Coast), and the UK Met office has a yellow warning from 3am right through to midnight
Now Met Eireann, for Louth, has currently an amber warning from midnight to 9am

Now is the difference due to different warning systems or is the Down Coast weather not actually expected to be as bad as Louth?

dacogawa

trixi001 wrote: »

Query out there for the technical wizards
I work in Newry (and living further North, along the East Coast), and the UK Met office has a yellow warning from 3am right through to midnight
Now Met Eireann, for Louth, has currently an amber warning from midnight to 9am

Now is the difference due to different warning systems or is the Down Coast weather not actually expected to be as bad as Louth?

There's a difference in the warning systems, I think Barra Best did a short video about it on instagram recently.

igCorcaigh

https://twitter.com/JointCyclone/status/1050403073015844868?s=19

Dickerty

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

Ash is notorious for being weak rooted and falling or losing branches. Most of the Ash trees here in Galway have lost their leaves now which makes a big difference. I don't expect many trees to fall tonight in comparison to Ali which was utter mayhem.

Typically Sycamore, making fun of a lesser tree!

(I have a giant Sycamore and Beech in my garden, so I know your type...)

MJohnston

trixi001 wrote: »

Query out there for the technical wizards
I work in Newry (and living further North, along the East Coast), and the UK Met office has a yellow warning from 3am right through to midnight
Now Met Eireann, for Louth, has currently an amber warning from midnight to 9am

Now is the difference due to different warning systems or is the Down Coast weather not actually expected to be as bad as Louth?

Met Eireann are pretty clear about their warning level criteria, they publish them on their website:
https://www.met.ie/weather-warnings

Met Office on the other hand are pretty opaque, they describe it as based on 'impact', but don't really explain their decision making too much.

Parts of Down on south facing coasts (especially exposed areas) are probably in line for worse conditions than Louth, actually.

pad199207

Wow

Sycamore Tree

Beautiful blue skies in Galway now. Had a lovely walk.

Calm before the storm.

Give us your best shot Ali Callum!

MJohnston

Met Eireann have updated their Forecaster's Commentary (emphasis mine):

Met Éireann has named Storm Callum. Severe Orange and Yellow Wind Warnings apply for Thursday night and Friday. Note, the Severe Orange Warning has just recently been extended in time out to 18:00 on Friday for coastal areas of Donegal, Sligo, Mayo, Galway and Clare. Further warnings were being considered later Friday across parts of the south and east, with the risk for another swathe winds and rain. However the severity and likelihood of these secondary event appears to have diminished considerably.

This event is predominantly expected to be a coastal one, though the severe winds will extend to inland parts, especially overnight and very early on Friday morning.

DOCARCH

Mod Note: Have moved some 'chatty' posts (including my own!) to chat thread. https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057919045

From now on, will be moving posts (as I or other Mods deem appropriate).

Edit: Also moving....'will my flight come or go' queries, and/or 'is it safe to travel' queries, to same thread!

kazoo106

Barra Best (BBC NI Weatherman) has put up a very good video on Facebook explaining the differences between systems on both sides of the border - sorry mods if posting a link is against the rules and you can remove if you wish - a link to the video on Facebook is below
https://www.facebook.com/BarraBestPresenter/videos/512091619202764/

Oscar Bravo

1634 Met forecast update

Becoming very windy and, in places, stormy tonight as frontal rain-bands associated with Storm Callum extend northwards across Ireland. Winds will back south or south easterly in direction and strengthen with severe and potentially damaging wind gusts likely, more especially in coastal regions. The rain will turn heavy and squally at times with an isolated thunderstorm possible. Clear spells and scattered showers will follow as the rain-band clears the north coast around dawn on Friday. Minimum temperatures of 8 to 11 degrees. Please see our warnings page for further details on current weather warnings that are in operation.

Tomorrow

Friday morning will start very windy and in places stormy with bright spells and a few scattered showers. The strong south or southwest winds will moderate across the bulk of the country by the afternoon but will remain very strong in coastal areas of the west and north with further severe gusts possible here. Outbreaks of rain will develop across the south and east during the late morning and persist into the afternoon with scattered showers elsewhere. Highest temperatures will range 14 to 17 degrees.

pad199207

Looks Callum is already taking his turn to the north

MJohnston

As a generic bit of technical information in response to flight questions:
1. Effects on flights won't be known until at best 24 hours in advance, and more likely you won't get a solid answer until within the 12 hour range.
2. You can check it yourself - the TAF is essentially an airport forecast that best represents the info that airlines will use in determining possible cancellations. A site like this:

https://www.checkwx.com/weather/EIKY/taf

Let's you easily see the TAF for any given airport for the next 24 hours or so (they usually extend out to 30 hours). Here's another one for Dublin Airport:

https://www.checkwx.com/weather/EIDW/taf

I always forget what the wind restrictions are for runway operations, someone like JXC might be able to better answer that - I believe it's 50 knots, so if you look at the Dublin TAF, you might expect some disruption between 1am and 6am when there are 55 knot gusts forecast.

Reckless Abandonment

MJohnston wrote: »

Met Eireann have updated their Forecaster's Commentary (emphasis mine):

You'd swear that was wrote just for us lot.

DOCARCH

pad199207 wrote: »

Looks Callum is already taking his turn to the north

Looks like it alright.

aisling86

DOCARCH wrote: »

Looks like it alright.

Is this earlier that expected?

SleetAndSnow

Beautiful day in cork city. Sunny skies with some clouds and not very windy. Warm too. Calm before the storm it seems!

Just got a text from Cork City Council saying this

Roads & parking areas along low-lying quays in Cork city centre may suffer localised spot flooding at high tide this evening (19.56) and tomorrow morning (08.15). Traffic restrictions will be in place from approx' 17.00hrs today, Thursday, through to 10.00hrs, Friday. The restrictions will apply to Morrison’s Island, Union Quay, Wandesford Quay, Frenches Quay and Crosses Green.

irishfeen

Will be interesting night in Munster and Connacht..

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/WaterfordCounci/status/1050393845169573889

DOCARCH

aisling86 wrote: »

Is this earlier that expected?

Really not sure. It was always going to turn north, but I am not sure about timing.

aidanodr

https://twitter.com/AerLingus/status/1050417193572294656

Doctors room ghost

Eerily calm in Galway blue sky no wind