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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Lumi

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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Meteorite58

Very unusual LP / possible storm showing up on the GFS and the ECM this evening for the E coast of the UK next weekend. The Jet very much in action.

Artane2002

sryanbruen wrote: »

GFS 12z a week today. Look at those rainfall totals to the east of England. This model is seriously having a meltdown 😂, no pun intended.

Meltdown at temperatures forecast between 10-14c :P? Just in case anyone believed those charts, these charts belong to the bin.

sryanbruen

GFS 12z a week today. Look at those rainfall totals to the east of England. This model is seriously having a meltdown 😂, no pun intended.

Villain

Back to the FI charts and 06z GFS is watering down that breakdown and building ridge back!

The ECMWF 0z Clusters show the uncertainty mind

bazlers

I can't see it been one way Atlantic traffic for the rest of the month. I would expect the Azores high to make a reappearance from the south west next 8 to 10 days time. Then Atlantic make another attack. Cycles of that nature.

Meteorite58

Very changeable. It would be a brave person to call the end of the ECM run !

The GEM showing a LP near Ireland next weds but not as deep. GFS showing a LP off to our NW / N . GFS not pretty out into FI

Meteorite58

Will be watching the developing LP forecast for next Weds. Long way off ( met eireann saying forecast uncertain ) and could fill more or deepen, at the moment it is deepening over Ireland with a strong jet nearby .

The Jet big time in action next week keeping things changing quickly. Impossible to put times on anything but looks like it could get windy ( maybe to warning level ) and unsettled mid week, cooler by far especially if we get that airmass brought down from Greenland aided by the Jet. Could get a brief blast of warm SW'lys and another Low around the Weekend but at present kept off N of Scotland but it then tracks down the North Sea ending up around Scandinavia . Could end up anywhere as by that time it seems the Scandi High Pressure block is done and dusted.

The End of the ECM 12Z run showing ridging again in from the Azores HP. A long way off after a very uncertain week coming up.

pauldry

Looking at forecast for next 10 days in Sligo there will be rain on all of them..

Even the good days

Drier for a time midmonth possibly

Hard to get used to getting soaked every day again

I told friends they better go to beach at weekend as next week is cack but in parts of Northwest weekend is now cack too.

harr

sryanbruen wrote: »

13-15c at best in the north and west whilst 14-16c at best in the south and east. I am only basing these off of the fact that the air will be coming primarily from the cold North Atlantic and what the model runs show. These do not take sunshine into account which would relatively bring up the temperatures somewhat. It's really looking like a massive change on these models but the question is, are they overdoing this change? Will it be as big a change as they show, will it be temporary or will the temperatures go closer to average and we have a typical Irish changeable westerly pattern?

Ok thanks for that. Those temps will definitely be a shock to the system.
Don’t think I have seen so much uncertainty in the charts here on boards.

sryanbruen

harr wrote: »

Now when you say turning very cool ...what’s cool 12c -13c daytime? :eek:

13-15c at best in the north and west whilst 14-16c at best in the south and east. I am only basing these off of the fact that the air will be coming primarily from the cold North Atlantic and what the model runs show. These do not take sunshine into account which would relatively bring up the temperatures somewhat. It's really looking like a massive change on these models but the question is, are they overdoing this change? Will it be as big a change as they show, will it be temporary or will the temperatures go closer to average and we have a typical Irish changeable westerly pattern?

harr

sryanbruen wrote: »

More runs of unsettled and cool conditions on the models today, certainty is growing now. After this weekend, looking like turning very cool (no exaggeration) and changeable.

Now when you say turning very cool ...what’s cool 12c -13c daytime? :eek:

sryanbruen

More runs of unsettled and cool conditions on the models today, certainty is growing now. After this weekend, looking like turning very cool (no exaggeration) and changeable.

pauldry

Low over Scandanavia on latest GFS now like Syran hinted by Rossby.

Cool Northwesterlies but still hope of High rebuild mid month or earlier.

Though August promises much rain theres still one or two more dry spells likely. No 32c ones again until 2060 or maybe next year.

pauldry

If its still uncertain by Sunday...as the weather mentions nothing past Monday will the Forecast say

Tomorrow is clouded with uncertainty with uncertain spells and scattered uncertainess theres no doubt about it.

Wev had enough good weather for one Summer bring on the floods!

igCorcaigh

I don't understand why the South is going to have a so much different regime from England, Gav's vid here shows high pressure and high temps over Southern Ireland?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2-d0UBeiqg

Gonzo

km79 wrote: »

So does this mean good weather next week then?

next week is uncertain but I think the most lightly outcome for us is a normal service after the respite from the unsettled conditions this weekend, with conditions similar to what we've had for the past week.

I would really like a surprise with a more settled and warm week than this one, but the Atlantic is putting up quite a fight and has made it's presence very much felt in our country over the past 6 days.

We should know more about how next weeks unfolds, hopefully over the weekend.

sryanbruen

km79 wrote: »

So does this mean good weather next week then?

Oh the uncertainty still stands, just that we may have found the culprit so have a chance of getting to understand the situation for ourselves using the teleconnections.

A tropical cyclone in the Pacific Ocean is attempting to interact with the atmospheric waves causing a downstream rossby wave to occur. Rossby waves are meanders in high altitude winds which have a big influence on the weather and the jet stream. This rossby wave is attempting to bring a pattern change in the weather over parts of the Northern Hemisphere courtesy of perhaps a meander in the jet stream. One such pattern change that has been shown by some model runs is the Scandi Low (which is on odds with other models though such as the CFSv2). This makes sense because as I described in the forecast post yesterday, when the models tend to change this much and so often, it's a signal for a pattern change of some kind somewhere that will influence the alignment of the pressure systems in Europe during August.

Let's look at the current alignment of the jet stream in the Northern Hemisphere at the moment:

It's further south over Ireland bringing depressions to here. Now fast forward to Sunday's likely jet stream alignment (not confident on this though due to the downstream rossby wave):

The jet stream pushes northwards again for a time but notice the brighter colours over the US indicating a push in the jet stream (courtesy of a rossby wave as mentioned above) which will displace the high pressure back to the Azores next week (well most likely scenario anyway if you ask me) and the westerlies take back over.

One thing that could push the high pressure back northwards is a big tropical cyclone in the North Atlantic but with colder than average sea surface temperatures (record cold according to sources), very unlikely that is going to happen.

irishrover99

km79 wrote: »

So does this mean good weather next week then?

Yes please translate ðŸ˜€

km79

So does this mean good weather next week then?

sryanbruen

The culprit may have been found why the uncertainty has been ridiculous with the pattern.

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1024537712953618433

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1024550518230855681

sryanbruen

The uncertainty continues, just look at all the options on the ECM clusters for example:

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1024617742840864769

sryanbruen

Funnily enough, the models were showing a northerly last year for around the same period of August in a similar timeframe.

Villain

Look at the end of the 00z ECM

Oh ya summer is over alright LOL

PowerToWait

Mobhi1 wrote: »

I've just found a site saying that Europe's record may have been 48.5C at Catenanuova in Sicily, Italy

From URL="http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/77772-highest-ever-recorded-temperature-in-europe/"][/URL]

Ireland second only to Iceland in lowest highest temp.

pauldry

North and West will have drizzle from Monday but OakPark will over 20c so might go there on holidays

Most Augusts tend to deteriorate

What good Augusts has the West had in the 21st Century

sryanbruen

ECM 12z is ok especially compared to other runs. The 564 dam line (heatwave conditions) clips the southern part of the country from Friday to Sunday but it never really pushes northwards. 850hPa temperatures then go downwards but only closer to average if relatively above average. Would be rather damp, quiet type weather. No use really going into details though because there's like a high chance of it changing again next run.

ItJustWorks

sryanbruen wrote: »

Lots of rain and cooler than normal in GFS 12z FI.

Weekend high looks textbook transient on the UKMO 12z.

Seems like ECMWF 12z Holds on to the high longer but the temps go down to average or slightly below from Monday, even though its mostly dry with the Atlantic bringing some cloud and drizzle by the north and west starting from Monday that might spread a bit. Nothing wrong at all with it. Summer's certainly not over in terms of sunshine and dry spells from that chart, I think but then it is FI and the models are having issues so who knows where we will be on Monday.

Mobhi1

sryanbruen wrote: »

Sorry, I mixed up the figures the other way round, yes it was Athens (also Elefsina).

Either way, Spain's record (and correct this time) is 47.3c and Portugal's is 47.4c. GFS 06z would make Portugal's record tumble.

I've just found a site saying that Europe's record may have been 48.5C at Catenanuova in Sicily, Italy but its not officially recognised. There's also this list of the highest temperatures in each European country:

Europe 48.0 °C (118.4 °F) Athens, Greece 1977-07-10[13]
Austria 39.7 °C (103.5 °F) Dellach im Drautal 1983-07-27[14]
Belarus 38.0 °C(100.4 °F) Vassilyevichy, Homiel Voblast 1946-08-20[15]
Belgium 38.8 °C (102 °F) Uccle 1947-06-27
Bulgaria 45.2 °C (113.3 °F) Sadovo, Plovdiv Province 1916-08-05[16]
Croatia 42.8 °C (109 °F) Ploce 1998-08-05[17]
Czech Republic 40.2 °C (104.4 °F) Prague-Uhríneves 1983-07-27[18]
Denmark 36.4 °C (97.5 °F) Holstebro, Midtjylland 1975-08-10[19]
Estonia 35.6 °C (96.1 °F) Võru 1992-08-11[20]
Finland 35.9 °C (96.6 °F) Turku 1914-07-09 [21]
France 43.4 °C (110.1 °F) Sartène 2009-07-23[22]
Germany 40.2 °C (104.4 °F) Gärmersdorf bei Amberg / Karlsruhe & Freiburg 1983-07-27 / 2003-08-13 [23]
Hungary 41.9 °C (107.4 °F) Kiskunhalas 2007-07-08[24]
Iceland 30.5 °C (86.9 °F) Teigarhorn, Djúpivogur 1939-06-22[25][26]
Ireland 33.3 °C (91.9 °F) Kilkenny Castle, County Kilkenny 1887-06-26[27]
Italy 47.0 °C (116.6 °F) Perdasdefogu, Sardinia 1983-07-28[28]
Lithuania 37.5 °C (99.5 °F) Zarasai, Utena County 1994-07-30[29]
Macedonia 46.7 ° C(112.6 °F) Demir Kapija, Demir Kapija Municipality 2000-07-05[30]
Moldova 41.5 ° C(106.7 °F) Camenca, Camenca sub-district 2007-07-21[31]
Netherlands 38.6 °C (102 °F) Warnsveld 1944-08-23[32]
Norway 35.6 °C (96.1 °F) Nesbyen, Buskerud 1970-06-20[33]
Poland 40.2 °C (104.4 °F) Prószków 1921-07-29[34]
Portugal 47.4 °C (117.3 °F) Amareleja, Beja 2003-08-01[35]
Romania 44.5 °C (112.1 °F) Ion Sion, Braila County 1951-08-10[36]
Serbia 44.9 °C (112.8 °F) Smederevska Palanka, Podunavlje District 2007-07-24[37]
Slovakia 40.3 °C (104.5 °F) Hurbanovo 2007-07-20[38]
Slovenia 40.6 °C (105.1 °F) Crnomelj 1950-07-05[39]
Spain 47.2 °C (116.9 °F) Murcia 1994-07-04[40]
Sweden 38.0 °C (100.4 °F) Ultuna, Uppsala County / Målilla, Kalmar County 1933-07-09 / 1947-06-29[41]
Switzerland 41.5 °C (106.7 °F) Grono, Locarno 2003-08-11[42]
United Kingdom 38.5 °C (101.3 °F) Faversham, Kent 2003-08-10[43]

From URL="http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/77772-highest-ever-recorded-temperature-in-europe/"][/URL]

Elmer Blooker

Nothing wrong with this, you would think it was time to stock up on coal and briquettes from some of the "summer is over" posts here! After the Augusts of recent years this is a very decent chart.

ECM1-168.GIF?31-0

sryanbruen

Looks like we're not alone in the uncertainty..........

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1024338286326820864