nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Lumi

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

sryanbruen

Lots of rain and cooler than normal in GFS 12z FI.

Weekend high looks textbook transient on the UKMO 12z.

Villain

ECM Clusters show uncertainity beyond +120 at present

ItJustWorks

Gonzo wrote: »

so far the temperatures this weekend don't look that impressive. Here in south Meath the predicted temperatures for my area are going no higher than 23C with showers foretasted up to Friday, then back into the teens after Monday.

ECMWF 0z is still showing the high as transitional and not bringing a huge level of heat over the weekend. UKMO 0z starting to think the same way with an Atlantic low getting ready to pounce mid-week (Which they mentioned in their extended forecast). GFS almost the complete opposite with another plume hitting southern England but then kinda has no idea as a low develops to the south west of us but little precipitation with it showing. It's all sorts of weird at the minute.

sryanbruen

Mobhi1 wrote: »

I thought it was Athens.

Sorry, I mixed up the figures the other way round, yes it was Athens (also Elefsina).

Either way, Spain's record (and correct this time) is 47.3c and Portugal's is 47.4c. GFS 06z would make Portugal's record tumble.

Mobhi1

sryanbruen wrote: »

Seville, Spain.

I thought it was Athens.

sryanbruen

I just looked at the latest ECM temperature maps and they show the warmest conditions this weekend to inland regions of the south and parts of the midlands, quite a difference from them showing an emphasis on the warmth in the west.

Cork Boy 53

sryanbruen wrote: »

GFS 06z shows 52c in Portugal on Saturday. The record high European temperature is 48.0c in August 2003.

Where was that temperature recorded?

Gonzo

so far the temperatures this weekend don't look that impressive. Here in south Meath the predicted temperatures for my area are going no higher than 23C with showers foretasted up to Friday, then back into the teens after Monday.

sryanbruen

Cantona's Collars wrote: »

Dunno if it will have any effect on us but temps in Portugal expected to hit 45c,even some of that heat moving North would have quite an effect on our weather.

GFS 06z shows 52c in Portugal on Saturday. The record high European temperature is 48.0c in July 1977.

Cantona's Collars

JCX BXC wrote: »

GFS 06Z extends warm weather to Tuesday.

Dunno if it will have any effect on us but temps in Portugal expected to hit 45c,even some of that heat moving North would have quite an effect on our weather.

JCX BXC

GFS 06Z extends warm weather to Tuesday.

JCX BXC

pauldry wrote: »

I beg to differ

Latest GFS has even Monday showery

Just because we baked in June and July doesnt mean all Highs last weeks and weeks.

Just a bit mad coz Im off next week and they were promising mainly dry weather but it looks like Friday to Sunday and then wer done

And another GFS is out, Monday looks very hot the breakdown is on Tuesday. I'm sure you know well enough at this stage to not base your expectations on 1/2 runs! Especially if they're past 120 hours! So there was no promises, not then, not now!

pauldry

I beg to differ

Latest GFS has even Monday showery

Just because we baked in June and July doesnt mean all Highs last weeks and weeks.

Just a bit mad coz Im off next week and they were promising mainly dry weather but it looks like Friday to Sunday and then wer done

sryanbruen

Comparison of 192 hours on the GFS and ECM 12z. The big differences between the models prove the uncertainty that I can't stress enough.

Really good weekend though on the ECM 12z with Sunday especially looking wonderful.

If the period after Sunday/Monday from the ECM were to come to fruition, it'd be strikingly similar to August 2006 which was a forgettable, damp month after the hot July and warm June of 2006.

sryanbruen

Lovely weekend on GFS 12z but then it all breaks down by Tuesday 7th August with low pressure from the south followed by a westerly.

ItJustWorks

0z/6z on GFS and 0z on ECMWF opting for a good weekend. Mid 20's highs in the west but easterly breezes might keep it cooler on the east. Should be pleasant. Both seem in agreement the high and heat will be shunted off by next Tuesday though. The jet stream evolution isn't quite clear yet though so all might change by the time we hit a reliable timeframe so keep investing in the flip flops I suppose.

Kermit.de.frog

The heat really built up by Sunday on the ECM

Meteorite58

Heights and pressure building and temperatures improving Thurs and looks like getting warmer each day and looking the warmest Sat, Sun , Mon at this stage . ECM showing top temps of 25 - 27C over the week end .

Early days but will be interesting watching the plume coming up out of Spain to see if it gets further up over the country and maybe last a bit longer. Also will be watching for Thunderstorm potential. Could get quite humid the week end and will be watching to see if we get something in the upper atmosphere to ignite a few sparks. Very early but showing a small area of lower pressure move up from the S around Sat / Sun this, looks slack but could feed in precipitation of some sort / cloud perhaps.

sryanbruen

ECM 12z keeps pressure high (starting Thursday) lasting 'til the end of its run. It is much hotter for Friday than the GFS. BBQ weekend if the ECM is right.

Maximum temperatures for the weekend on the ECM 12z.

Saturday 4th August

Sunday 5th August

sryanbruen

GFS 12z is strange. The high is transient and so is real warmth but it never gets very unsettled for Ireland through the run. The ensembles look rather wet though which again is very different.

sryanbruen

More changes on the 0z runs (along with GFS 06z), back to the transient ridge scenario that Meteorite58 highlighted for yesterday's 0z runs. The 12z runs said no to it. Wonder if the same will occur today.

ItJustWorks

ECMWF 12z Seeming fine for the bank holiday weekend. Pleasant weather after maybe a brief wet interlude on Thursday. South will get a nice warm spell for sure though not looking overly hot. Only thing that has me wondering is that the High being shunted very quickly over to Scandinavia and not hooking with the Azores high. Meanwhile the Atlantic jet looks like it's having a peep in though the slack mess left behind. Could that be the August scenario we're looking at? Chopping and changing between high ridges and the Atlantic jet (Especially as it starts picking up more steam on the way into Autumn)?

Kermit.de.frog

Good signs across the models from Wednesday onward. Increasing dry, warm and sunny weather quite likely to return.

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Some industries (Farmers) maybe not so much good news.

It's on.

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Please keep on Topic. This thread is for posting and discussing charts / future weather in the more unreliable timeframe of FI ,

that is +120 hrs.

Thanks

km79

Light me up baby !!!

sryanbruen

GFS 12z turns up the furnace and different again. Like I said, expect lots more flips and flops!

Meteorite58

Heights and pressure building towards the weekend as ridging moves up over us. Would be great if we got at least some warm weather for a few days but it looks quite transient with LP wanting to push through again after the weekend but very uncertain. I see the Scandi HP being replaced by LP out at +240. The GFS taking on a more meridional flow after that perhaps. The weak Jet is fractured all over the place in the next week or so . A way out in FI it takes on a more strong North South flow showing a deeper Atlantic LP but that is purely just looking for trends at this stage.

ItJustWorks

sryanbruen wrote: »

Changeable with differences in air masses on a daily basis and rain from time to time, even during the period that high pressure is expected to come back as above from the GFS 06z. The 0z is an outlier..... for now.

12z GFS going for more settled with the ridge rebuilding from the west and bringing a NW flow like the 0z so outside of some light rain/drizzle it's average temperatures. 12z ECM is kinda a mess after Thursday and indecisive as it rapidly makes a ridge for the Friday then shunts it to the east as soon as it forms letting the Atlantic have a look in again. Does look warmer in the south though.

Cork Boy 53

km79 wrote: »

This has cheered me up
Can handle these 4 days of absolute misery which will help people in need of rain as long as it settles back down for a few weeks again

I have serious issues with lack of water. My well is on the point of drying up despite the rain of the last two days and many of my neighbouring farmers and landowners are in the same position so personally speaking I hope we get a prolonged period of steady rainfall.

squarecircles

Call me Al wrote: »

Yes. I appreciate rain is needed. And hopefully we will get lots of it between now and midweek.

But I'm also hoping that Mother Nature doesn't forget to stop raining, as tends to happen in an Irish summer.

yes its high time we came back inline now with the rest of europe,regarding sunshine and heat,weve had enough cloudy overcast days here in the west,The uk are having a blast,the heatwave has reloaded in scandinavia, and its business as usual in the med and central europe.i want my heat and sunshine back please.