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Brexit discussion thread III

ancapailldorcha

This thread is for discussing the departure of the UK from the EU. I will move some posts over shortly.

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The Politics Mods.

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An Ciarraioch

You might need to sit down for this post - an outbreak of common sense from a DUP member!

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/your-say/we-in-the-dup-should-back-a-softer-brexit-to-save-union-1-8504204/amp?__twitter_impression=true

[Deleted User]

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

You might need to sit down for this post - an outbreak of common sense from a DUP member!

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/your-say/we-in-the-dup-should-back-a-softer-brexit-to-save-union-1-8504204/amp?__twitter_impression=true

Yeah, that's actually pretty on point.

flatty

It sort of is, bar his delusion that many nationalists are closet unionists. Many nationalists are closet me feiners, feeling the status quo is better on their pocket, and with the level of public sector employment in the North, its easy to see why. Unionists this does not make them.

Jim2007

flatty wrote: »

And the UK would be insane to wave through a deal which doesn't incorporate services. Nonetheless it sounds like some sort of compromise may be possible somehow.

A deal that would include financial services is simply not possible. You cannot have a situation where a substantial player is not under the jurisdiction of the ECJ, they would be in a position to manipulate the market without any to keep them under control. A few countries have been given access to the EU on stock exchange services, but banks and related services have been ruled out.

EdgeCase

Well, from the DUP's point of view, the status quo is probably the best they'll ever get. The alternatives for Northern Ireland are all upheaval and potential chaos. Single-sided absolutism in Northern Ireland will not and cannot work.

flatty

Jim2007 wrote: »

flatty wrote: »

And the UK would be insane to wave through a deal which doesn't incorporate services. Nonetheless it sounds like some sort of compromise may be possible somehow.

A deal that would include financial services is simply not possible. You cannot have a situation where a substantial player is not under the jurisdiction of the ECJ, they would be in a position to manipulate the market without any to keep them under control. A few countries have been given access to the EU on stock exchange services, but banks and related services have been ruled out.

Exactly. This ECJ thing is a solo run my teresa may. She, and she alone drew the red lines, and fcuk everyone else.

Nody

flatty wrote: »

Exactly. This ECJ thing is a solo run my teresa may. She, and she alone drew the red lines, and fcuk everyone else.

I still think she's sore over her defeat as minister with the court rulings from Hague on human rights and for some reason connect them all as one big thing (either being clueless or simply refusing to accept non UK rulings which is silly as any trade dispute etc. by definition will be decided by a non UK court).

flatty

Nody wrote: »

I still think she's sore over her defeat as minister with the court rulings from Hague on human rights and for some reason connect them all as one big thing (either being clueless or simply refusing to accept non UK rulings which is silly as any trade dispute etc. by definition will be decided by a non UK court).

That would be my take on it also.

dublinbuster

Its plain to see if you take a step back.
The UK is dragging it out as long as possible, why you ask?
Italy could Jump any day now.
Wont take much for Greece to Jump.
Wont take much for Spain to Jump.
Wont take much for east Europe to jump.
Hell the PIGGS could jump in the morning.
Trade war with USA looming
Real war with Russia a possibility
The € is extremely vulnerable, wont take much for it to collapse.
No end in sight to refugees flooding in to EU
Ramavan is off and running, only a matter of time before the next atrocity
UK has the whip hand and it gets stronger the longer it drags out

CrabRevolution

dublinbuster wrote: »

Its plain to see if you take a step back.
The UK is dragging it out as long as possible, why you ask?
Italy could Jump any day now.
Wont take much for Greece to Jump.
Wont take much for Spain to Jump.
Wont take much for east Europe to jump.
Hell the PIGGS could jump in the morning.
Trade war with USA looming
Real war with Russia a possibility
The € is extremely vulnerable, wont take much for it to collapse.
No end in sight to refugees flooding in to EU
Ramavan is off and running, only a matter of time before the next atrocity
UK has the whip hand and it gets stronger the longer it drags out

There's more chance of Scotland or NI leaving the UK then there is of any of those countries leaving the EU.

And in any case, not one of the things you've listed is going to happen within the next 10 months (well, bar Ramadan). 10 Months being when the UK needs to have a solution by.

Why would the UK be stalling for time when it's the UK who desperately need a deal soon to prevent their economy imploding next March?

mickoneill31

dublinbuster wrote: »

Its plain to see if you take a step back.
The UK is dragging it out as long as possible, why you ask?
Italy could Jump any day now.
Wont take much for Greece to Jump.
Wont take much for Spain to Jump.
Wont take much for east Europe to jump.
Hell the PIGGS could jump in the morning.
Trade war with USA looming
Real war with Russia a possibility
The € is extremely vulnerable, wont take much for it to collapse.
No end in sight to refugees flooding in to EU
Ramavan is off and running, only a matter of time before the next atrocity
UK has the whip hand and it gets stronger the longer it drags out

Add in Ireland could leave as it depends on the UK so much.

Some idiots in the UK believed that too.

Zubeneschamali

dublinbuster wrote: »

Italy could Jump any day now.
Wont take much for Greece to Jump.
Wont take much for Spain to Jump.
Wont take much for east Europe to jump.
Hell the PIGGS could jump in the morning.
Trade war with USA looming
Real war with Russia a possibility
The € is extremely vulnerable, wont take much for it to collapse.
No end in sight to refugees flooding in to EU

Welcome, time traveller from 2008! Much has changed since your time.

MBSnr

Possible election talk...
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/95328/tory-mps-preparing-another-snap

Capt'n Midnight

dublinbuster wrote: »

Its plain to see if you take a step back.
The UK is dragging it out as long as possible, why you ask?
Italy could Jump any day now.

The populist parties in Italy have made two things very clear.

A - they aren't happy with the EU and they want big changes in things like immigration and payments and control Change the names and it could a UKIP manifsto.

B - they will change the system from within.

If you are a marriage counsellor do you spend more time on the couple that's having relationship difficulties but are trying to work them out or the one that's already filed for divorce and whose next date is the one in court ?

This will take attention away from the UK.

It also means that any concessions given to the UK will have to be given to Italy, but the UK will no be entitled to any given to Italy.

It's possible rather than probable that Italy will get enough concessions to have appeased the soft-brexiteers, apart from the "take back control" guff

Capt'n Midnight

MBSnr wrote: »

Possible election talk...
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/95328/tory-mps-preparing-another-snap

Have the DUP seen this yet ?

Christy42

dublinbuster wrote: »

Its plain to see if you take a step back.
The UK is dragging it out as long as possible, why you ask?
Italy could Jump any day now.
Wont take much for Greece to Jump.
Wont take much for Spain to Jump.
Wont take much for east Europe to jump.
Hell the PIGGS could jump in the morning.
Trade war with USA looming
Real war with Russia a possibility
The € is extremely vulnerable, wont take much for it to collapse.
No end in sight to refugees flooding in to EU
Ramavan is off and running, only a matter of time before the next atrocity
UK has the whip hand and it gets stronger the longer it drags out

Evidence for literally any of that? Greece went to the brink and realised it was screwed without the help of the EU. They won't jump. Similar for Italy and Spain. That leaves us and Portugal in the PIGS. Haven't heard much from Portugal but here the EU is massively favoured in all polls with all main (successful) political parties supporting the EU.

The euro is fine. No war with Russia is incoming.

The UK is dragging this out because they are realising that they have promised to jump off a cliff and are desperately trying to find a way out that doesn't tank them.

VonZan

dublinbuster wrote: »

Its plain to see if you take a step back.
The UK is dragging it out as long as possible, why you ask?
Italy could Jump any day now.
Wont take much for Greece to Jump.
Wont take much for Spain to Jump.
Wont take much for east Europe to jump.
Hell the PIGGS could jump in the morning.
Trade war with USA looming
Real war with Russia a possibility
The € is extremely vulnerable, wont take much for it to collapse.
No end in sight to refugees flooding in to EU
Ramavan is off and running, only a matter of time before the next atrocity
UK has the whip hand and it gets stronger the longer it drags out

The UK have very little power. The days of the empire dangling shiny things in front of imbeciles are long gone. The UK is dragging out Brexit because they think they can cherry pick the best bits from the EU. The deal Brexiters want is impossible.

It's only dragging out because we still have no idea what Brexit really means for the UK. They have been told they can't cherry pick yet they seem naieve enough to think that the longer this drags on the more desperate the EU will be to do a deal which simply isn't true. The UK have left themselves exposed during this interim period. It's an embarrassment and goes back to conservatives pandering to the little englanders.

EdgeCase

I would actually think that the bigger risk is that the UK economy tanks and causes a knock-on problem in Ireland.

There's a lot of issues like high levels of consumer debt and so on that could suddenly be crystallised and exposed in the UK.

My concern is that there's a sudden slide in sentiment and confidence and the whole Brexit process is really not inspiring a lot of that at the moment.

It's reminding me of the kind of head-in-sand exceptionalism that was around in Ireland in 2007/8 when people were all telling us that there was absolutely no risk to the Irish economy whatsoever and that we were somehow special and different and everything was fine. This was despite all the experts raising red alerts about impending problems.

Leroy42

Dragging what out? A50 has a strict deadline of 2 years, 10 months or so left.

They are the ones with the most to lose, it is quite a gamble that something else will happen which is not only outside their control but any reactions to it are also outside of their control.

The final problem is that during the campaign Leavers assured everyone tgat the UK had all the aces and a deal would be easy. Now it rests on the gamble that Italy or something else will happen.

Infini

My guess is that come June the UK will come up with some unacceptable proposal that still doesnt work and the EU/Ireland will basically suspend the talks on this and the border issue. This isnt out of spite but rather that we're running short on time and realistically the only way the UK is gonna realise how screwed they are is by essentially giving them a pre-emptive shock to force them to face the reality that awaits if they either dont cop on or put this whole thing on ice and have another referendum down the line.

They HAVE to understand that there will be no winners from this, the bullshyteers are incompetent liars and a 5th column to their own countries wellbeing and that while going through will this will hurt the EU in the short term, its big enough to absorb the shock and they will support Ireland from any potential fallout out of sheer necessity and solidarity. The UK on the otherhand might not even survive Brexit, The scots case for a 2nd indyref is building by the day and a rerun will most certainly result in scottish independence the 2nd time around and they would possibly rejoin the EU very quickly. It would ironically leave a rump state of England outside the EU with Scotland inside thus Brexit would in the long term be limited to the area's that actually voted to leave not stay.

Northern Ireland will likely result in Reunification with the rest Ireland because the whole Brexit fiasco reactivated the nationalist agenda simply by disrupting the status-quo. The DUP will end up owning the whole thing because they pushed an agenda that actually UNDERMINED unionism in the long term and I would say there'd be quite a few who wont waste pointing that out and hammering them with it. Others in the unionist block will most likely start looking at the option of a UI out of economic considerations and probably look at securing financial assistance and british citizenship as part of any potential handover deal to cover their bases. The Die hards will probably rabble rouse for a while but ultimately end up bregrudingly accepting the situation or moving to England.

An Ciarraioch

85% in the North want either the UK or NI remain in the CU and SM:

https://t.co/Q1VLhnFJV3?amp=1

[Deleted User]

If this snap election that's being talked about actually happened, I reckon the DUP would lose some seats based on that polling in the north.

flatty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

85% in the North want either the UK or NI remain in the CU and SM:

https://t.co/Q1VLhnFJV3?amp=1

I wonder what a referendum rerun would bring there?

Hurrache

Nigel Lawson on Pat Kenny this morning. Well worth a listen to to get an understanding as to why the British establishment is where it is on this. Good levels of delusion, and he somehow managed to get in the statement that the IRA were defeated into the conversation. And he lives in France.

[Deleted User]

Hurrache wrote: »

Nigel Lawson on Pat Kenny this morning. Well worth a listen to to get an understanding as to why the British establishment is where it is on this. Good levels of delusion, and he somehow managed to get in the statement that the IRA were defeated into the conversation. And he lives in France.

Waved away any awkward questions.... Dont worry there wont be any problems in trade or travel.... IRA defeated etc etc....

He doesnt give a damn.

Leroy42

And throughout all this back and forth, there is still no one idea about how services will be dealt with.

There is a story in the Express today about how getting the fishing policy back will lead to an increase in £32m of fish revenues. I don't know what the CoL is worth in terms of trade, but it is certainly far more than that.

EdgeCase

I actually find a lot of UK media coverage seems to not seem to understand context of amounts. For example, councils given £100 milion to repair British potholes. For the whole of the UK...

It was touted like it was fantastic. It would be like the Irish government allocating £7 million for road maintenance. It's hardly going to make much of an impact. I mean it's better than nothing but it's not going to solve the problems.

Then you get the contribution to the EU, out of context and with no comprehension of how big the EU is.

Water John

Boris lost at last week's Cabinet. Still trying to rachet up Brexit.
He is in the Amazon forest in Peru ATM. I think that's a fair exchange for Paddington Bear.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/20/boris-johnson-we-want-a-deal-with-the-eu-not-a-customs-backstop

blanch152

EdgeCase wrote: »

I would actually think that the bigger risk is that the UK economy tanks and causes a knock-on problem in Ireland.

There's a lot of issues like high levels of consumer debt and so on that could suddenly be crystallised and exposed in the UK.

My concern is that there's a sudden slide in sentiment and confidence and the whole Brexit process is really not inspiring a lot of that at the moment.

It's reminding me of the kind of head-in-sand exceptionalism that was around in Ireland in 2007/8 when people were all telling us that there was absolutely no risk to the Irish economy whatsoever and that we were somehow special and different and everything was fine. This was despite all the experts raising red alerts about impending problems.

I would hope that any Irish SMEs dependent on the UK economy have spent the last two years seeking new markets. Otherwise they are in trouble.

Brexit presents opportunities as well as problems. Ireland has to maximise the opportunities and minimise the problems. If if does, the Irish economy as a whole could even see a boost.

However, that will still mask individual issues. The new jobs in financial services won't be going to the people who were working in mushrooms in Monaghan.

Professor Moriarty

EdgeCase wrote: »

I actually find a lot of UK media coverage seems to not seem to understand context of amounts. For example, councils given £100 milion to repair British potholes. For the whole of the UK...

It was touted like it was fantastic. It would be like the Irish government allocating £7 million for road maintenance. It's hardly going to make much of an impact. I mean it's better than nothing but it's not going to solve the problems.

Then you get the contribution to the EU, out of context and with no comprehension of how big the EU is.

Interestingly, the Brexit financial settlement comes to £100 million x 37000.