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Is anyone else starting to become a bit worried? mod note in first post

Autochange

Bear markets
Fud
Regulation
Wall Street manipulation
The supposed tether ticking time bomb

What are your thoughts? Have you cashed out? Have you been buying the dips?

MOD NOTE:
Its good to see healthy debate and discussion taking place and I am sure every supporter of cryptocurrency and blockchain can agree that the contrarian viewpoint is worthwhile reading, if only to act as an anchor and help prevent investors from getting carried away in an echo chamber of "everything is wonderful, just keep going"

However, there have been a few reported posts recently which I did not action as I wanted to see the thread level out itself rather than start forcing viewpoints and I have been in two minds about that decision.

I'm not going to single any posters out but I'm going to ask that all posters read the forum charter and I want to point out that it was established years ago in the Television forum, that dropping in on a forum to tell the followers of that forums topic (in that case a particular tv show) that it was all crap and only idiots watched it etc etc was the exact definition of being a dick and attempting to troll. I know this because I was the mod of the forum at the time. Now look at the forum charter again.

There is pretty much one rule on this forum : if you cannot discuss in a civil manner, and I mean discuss, not soapbox or attack, then you have absolutely no business posting here and I have no qualms about removing your ability to do so.

This forum is for people that have in interest in cryptocurrencies, blockchain and their application to financial investments. that can be positive or negative but if you really feel the need to start pulling out memes / hiding insults in imaginary hashtags / attacking personalities or just generally being a dick there are other forums you can post in where I will let the local mods determine if it is within the scope of allowable behaviour. Here, it is not.

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rapul

All my coins in the green ,I'm sure all the haters will love that ,onwards and upwards hopefully folks!

JohnnyFlash

rapul wrote: »

All my coins in the green ,I'm sure all the haters will love that ,onwards and upwards hopefully folks!

There's no 'haters' here horse. Only believers and skeptics. Believers will point to fundamentals, movements, etc. Skeptics will point to a sudden movement of 2.3 billion dollars of tether back into trading once there's any movement towards a green candle as a result of the miners pumping the price.

The sooner the entire Tether thing is dealt with is the sooner the entire crypto thing can find true value. I'd always question why the dudes running Tether and Bitfinex are still keeping up the show. The channels back out into fiat are decreasing. Would any of ye put your weeks wages into an exchange like Bitfinex?

grindle

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Would any of ye put your weeks wages into an exchange like Bitfinex?

God no.
Trade mostly via Binance or a DEX like forkdelta or IDEX.
Maybe Bitfinex aren't lying scum but an auditor ducking out & talking about irregularities should have been the minute everybody abandoned that ship.

Not sure what you meant about miners pumping the price, but scepticism is good.
Miners would be one of the most likely to dump the price.

lifeandtimes

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

There's no 'haters' here horse. Only believers and skeptics. Believers will point to fundamentals, movements, etc. Skeptics will point to a sudden movement of 2.3 billion dollars of tether back into trading once there's any movement towards a green candle as a result of the miners pumping the price.

The sooner the entire Tether thing is dealt with is the sooner the entire crypto thing can find true value. I'd always question why the dudes running Tether and Bitfinex are still keeping up the show. The channels back out into fiat are decreasing. Would any of ye put your weeks wages into an exchange like Bitfinex?

It's always Tether and the Chinese with you Johnny hahaha

Tether surprisingly seems to be keeping it's head above water but as soon as USDX comes out in April I'm almost certain they will be sunk, to volatile for even the most volatile market going

JohnnyFlash

grindle wrote: »

Miners would be one of the most likely to dump the price.

I always have to make some sort of speech at the start to clarify that I'm not winding you people up. I really ain't. I'm no butcher.

I'm genuinely interested in that one. Out of proper ignorance. Why would a miner want the price to drop? Is it not a volume game for them?

Bob24

rapul wrote: »

All my coins in the green ,I'm sure all the haters will love that ,onwards and upwards hopefully folks!

It’s always a matter of timescale. In the green for the past 24h probably, but in the last 3 months likely far from it. It is not about being a hater or a lover, factually there is no questioning that since the January peak pretty much all coins have been in a downwards trend (with local recoveries for a few days but the overall trend is still currently down).

rapul

Bob24 wrote: »

It’s always a matter of timescale. In the green for the past 24h probably, but in the last 3 months likely far from it. It is not about being a hater or a lover, factually there is no questioning that since the January peak pretty much all coins have been in a downwards trend (with local recoveries for a few days but the overall trend is still currently down).

Sure mate but I'm still in the green so

This thread is just so much negativity, if you were skeptical to the same extent would you go onto let's say a baking forum and just say people are basically wrong and continuously try to prove ur right compared to how others bake or what ingredients they use just because your opinion is different? I think not. That was just an example off the top of my head.

I don't agree with the church but I'm not going to voice my negative opinion on something that people seem to get some fulfillment out of,that's just not nice folks!

h0neybadger

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

I always have to make some sort of speech at the start to clarify that I'm not winding you people up. I really ain't. I'm no butcher.

I'm genuinely interested in that one. Out of proper ignorance. Why would a miner want the price to drop? Is it not a volume game for them?

As a farm owner of ASIC machines, I can see the advantages both ways.

If the price rises, I sell less coin to cover my costs.
But difficulty increases quicker as people buy new machines.

If the price falls, difficulty slows. Less people can afford to run their miners. Those with cheaper electricity can thus earn more coin.
But if you have to sell that coin to cover costs, you end up selling more monthly.

I like when both things happen, but I wouldn’t mind a fall to $4,500 or $5,000. I have enough to cover my electricity costs for a few months without selling any BTC, and with a big drop (more than it has recently) a lot of miners would switch off due to running costs.

grindle

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

I always have to make some sort of speech at the start to clarify that I'm not winding you people up. I really ain't. I'm no butcher.

I'm genuinely interested in that one. Out of proper ignorance. Why would a miner want the price to drop? Is it not a volume game for them?

I get you're not trying to wind us up, you're doing much better these days with the focus on exchanges and scamcoins. These are things I'm not a fan of either.

Miners don't want the price to drop too much or it becomes unsustainable, but they're the least likely to hold their stack as they need to sell to pay costs.

Everybody was crapping themselves about 35k BTC being sold from the Mt.Gox fund but miners worldwide are earning and have to sell some of that amount every 20 days.

smacl

BloodBath wrote: »

I never said my instincts were based off of reading charts.

Maybe I misunderstood you so. You said "Makes me wonder if people are even capable of reading a basic graph" which suggested to me extrapolating from a graph, or comparing a current graph from another graph you consider similar for purposes of extrapolation. If this wasn't the case, why talk about being able read graphs or post another graph that wasn't based on crypto data?

I predicted a 1000% increase in AMD shares twice and Teslas once but that had very little to do with charts and more of a belief in the companies future products and business plan combined with a currently low bottomed out share value.

What you're saying is DYOR which is something I think everyone here agrees on. Applies equally well to companies in the crypto space.

There is nothing scientific about predicting currency values especially in relation to cryptos unless you have the power and wealth to manipulate the markets. I also never said crypto was doomed. It's obviously the future of currency. I just don't think it will be the current big ones and my critic is mainly aimed at bitcoin and the currencies connected to it like Ethereum.

You could well be right, but what is your rationale for this prediction?

Congrats to those who made a killing on them but imo neither 1 will ever again see the highs or growth they had last year. There are other more exciting prospects.

Again, if you think crypto isn't doomed and is the future of currency, what's your rationale suggesting there won't be many bubbles along the way of similar or greater magnitude to what we've had previously? I would have thought that if you have a market that survives and even thrives after a bubble bursts, you are quite likely to get dramatic growth at some point again in the future.

Bob24

rapul wrote: »

This thread is just so much negativity, if you were skeptical to the same extent would you go onto let's say a baking forum and just say people are basically wrong and continuously try to prove ur right compared to how others bake or what ingredients they use just because your opinion is different? I think not. That was just an example off the top of my head.

I don't agree with the church but I'm not going to voice my negative opinion on something that people seem to get some fulfillment out of,that's just not nice folks!

I’m not sure comparing discussing cryptocurrencies’ potential (or not) as investors or technology enthousists to a religious group discussing their faith makes sense? Obviously they are very different things and different contexts, and will be discussed differently (also for reference anticlericalism is all over boards).

The question is do we see this forum as a way do discuss our faith in crypto with “nice” people, or as a way to hear all kids of opinions related to crypto (with no obligation to agree with all of these).

smacl

h0neybadger wrote: »

I like when both things happen, but I wouldn’t mind a fall to $4,500 or $5,000. I have enough to cover my electricity costs for a few months without selling any BTC, and with a big drop (more than it has recently) a lot of miners would switch off due to running costs.

Surely the miners that are driven out though would tend to be the smaller ones, as the much larger miners will locate alongside cheap electricity and will benefit from greater economies of scale. Do the multitude of small miners actually make up that much of the total mining capacity?

rapul

To Bob, it's the same crap time over time, my point is everyone is obviously entitled to their opinion but the same argument over and over is just draining surely in any context you can see how tiring it gets ,and we understand where most of you are coming from ,I for one respect your opinions but nonetheless do not agree alot of the time but for most of the brigade give it up or waste your time I guess

grindle

smacl wrote: »

Surely the miners that are driven out though would tend to be the smaller ones, as the much larger miners will locate alongside cheap electricity and will benefit from greater economies of scale. Do the multitude of small miners actually make up that much of the total mining capacity?

Either smaller or in it for the least amount of time or in an expensive country.
Decent amount of miners in expensive countries.
If you have any one of those negative cost factors you might have to stop mining due to cost, which is obviously terrible for the network.

Some idealists (especially early miners) would continue to mine at a small loss for the good of the network as they've likely been made millionaires years ago, it's an exercise in game theory for what they'd do because there are a lot of individuals making their own personal choices. You can only study what's happened afterwards.

lifeandtimes

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Down below $7500 now.

Deary me... looks like this "correction" is not done yet...

This is a good observation on the HODL culture.

This post had me thinking again, who the hell are the crypto cartel?

Hodl was literraly made by a drunken investor on bitcoin talk who misspelled the word hold.

The Twitter account is set up with wind people up(people think it's the same guy behind @bitcoinjoker) and ever post is debunked by people with actual experience in real world banking and cryptocurrencys

SkySter

Bit of a bounce today off the back of positive comments from G20 watchdog. Hopefully this is the start of a trend reversal.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-g20-regulations-carney/g20-watchdog-focuses-on-rules-review-holds-fire-on-cryptocurrencies-idUKKBN1GU0SF

lifeandtimes

SkySter wrote: »

Bit of a bounce today off the back of positive comments from G20 watchdog. Hopefully this is the start of a trend reversal.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-g20-regulations-carney/g20-watchdog-focuses-on-rules-review-holds-fire-on-cryptocurrencies-idUKKBN1GU0SF

That's like the US congress meeting about cryptocurrencys and them saying "they want to get it right the first Time"

Positive language around will bring the market up, hope everyone took advantage of the sale

smacl

grindle wrote: »

If you have any one of those negative cost factors you might have to stop mining due to cost, which is obviously terrible for the network.

Indeed, not much point in having a decentralised network which is dependent on a largely centralised mining community. It will be interesting if any current or future cryptos adopt a hashing mechanism that favours balanced and/or restricted mining across a much broader network of miners. I'd feel long term that crypto usage would benefit significantly from being decoupled with heavy power consumption and massive computation. I wouldn't be surprised if they come up with SHA capable quantum computers soon enough which will kick the current ASIC based mining into touch.

amacca

smacl wrote: »

Indeed, not much point in having a decentralised network which is dependent on a largely centralised mining community. It will be interesting if any current or future cryptos adopt a hashing mechanism that favours balanced and/or restricted mining across a much broader network of miners. I'd feel long term that crypto usage would benefit significantly from being decoupled with heavy power consumption and massive computation.

I'd agree, Do any current or proposed show any signs of going that route?

smacl wrote: »

I wouldn't be surprised if they come up with SHA capable quantum computers soon enough which will kick the current ASIC based mining into touch.

I was thinking about that myself but isn't the general consensus that something like that happening is probably decades away? ...lots of issues to iron out....

h0neybadger

smacl wrote: »

Surely the miners that are driven out though would tend to be the smaller ones, as the much larger miners will locate alongside cheap electricity and will benefit from greater economies of scale. Do the multitude of small miners actually make up that much of the total mining capacity?

Yes and no. The largest miners are obviously Canaan, Bitmain, that Swedish company. Large companies with billions available for hardware, infrastructure, and the ability to relocate without insane expenses due to their access to large amounts of funds. These companies don’t rely on selling BTC to run their operations.

Then there’s smaller farms. The middle men. People like me who do require selling coin to cover costs. Yeah, we could survive a few months without selling, but eventually the cash runs out and the coins have to be sold regardless of the price of BTC.

Then there’s the home users. A few miners at home in the basement. I believe this makes up 30-40% of the total hashpower. They can cover their electricity bill for a while, but they eventually will sell to cover costs. But they can afford from their wages to pay for a short period of time.

It’s the middle group that take the biggest hit and have to sell. We can’t compete vs the large farms. They are too rich and have the best access to resources.
Home users have a good gig too. Small costs, and can cover it themselves. No real costs associated except electricity.
Middle groups struggle to compete and stay competitive. Unfortunately, we’re losing the battle and it’s Canaan and Bitmain who are forcing us out of the mining game.

When I joined Slushpool back in March, I was in the top 10 largest farms.
But I had barely 5% of the combined hashing power.

Now, I have barely .5% of the hashing power yet I’m still in the top 100 accounts.

But other pools like the ones canaan and Bitmain use are much larger than Slushpool, and these are the more “centralised” groups.

grindle

smacl wrote: »

Indeed, not much point in having a decentralised network which is dependent on a largely centralised mining community. It will be interesting if any current or future cryptos adopt a hashing mechanism that favours balanced and/or restricted mining across a much broader network of miners. I'd feel long term that crypto usage would benefit significantly from being decoupled with heavy power consumption and massive computation. I wouldn't be surprised if they come up with SHA capable quantum computers soon enough which will kick the current ASIC based mining into touch.

Anything ASIC resistant (which is largely a time game wrt hardware) is preferable. Monero is a good example, every CryptoNight project will likely follow their lead in adopting CryptoNightV7.
Bitmain announced Monero-friendly miners a couple of days ago (likely already been used by them for the past few months) and they're releasing them to market just as Monero changes algorithm rendering them useless for Monero mining, and Monero will be changing algos ever 6 months to disincentivise ASIC production.

PoS is obviously ASIC-resistant but gives weight to holders. Having said that, staking pool contracts will exist so there's a much wider scope for decentralisation, possibly even a contract oracle hub or networks of them that can point people's funds towards a different pool contract to even the weight of pools should one get near 51%. Whether that would be necessary depends on what the initial staking quantity is but that minimum limit is likely to fall over time as sharding propagates so the need to develop systems like that seem slim. It's an option though.

I wouldn't worry too much about quantum computing, SHA 3 is waiting on the sidelines & if people are worried about SHA 2 wrt quantum computing then they should be far more worried about their real bank accounts and anything else holding their data.

Also once SHA 2 is broken/exploitable it will take an excessive amount of time per address to grab the keys. They'd obviously go for exchanges and Satoshi's wallets rather than everybody else's, but any team worth their salt (hurrrrr) will have switched to something else.

h0neybadger

grindle wrote: »

Anything ASIC resistant (which is largely a time game wrt hardware) is preferable. Monero is a good example, every CryptoNight project will likely follow their lead in adopting CryptoNightV7.
Bitmain announced Monero-friendly miners a couple of days ago (likely already been used by them for the past few months) and they're releasing them to market just as Monero changes algorithm rendering them useless for Monero mining, and Monero will be changing algos ever 6 months to disincentivise ASIC production.

Laughed so much when I saw Bitmain release them.

No refunds.
Sold out very quick.
$11,999 per unit.
Insane profitability for early buyers.

Then Monero announced algo change.

Yeah... Bitmain winning again. Ran them for months. Sold the lot of them. No refunds. Algo changes.

Fkn typical Bitmain.

smacl

Makes sense, though I'm surprised the home miners make up such a large percentage of the total being probably the least efficient in terms of ROI.

Bob24

smacl wrote: »

Makes sense, though I'm surprised the home miners make up such a large percentage of the total being probably the least efficient in terms of ROI.

I am not familiar with the mining landscape, but I guess there must also be quite a few small miners who do it because their cost is covered by someone else? For exemple a PhD student who has a workstation mining in their college office and that no one else pays attention to. Or someone who for whatever reason has their electricity bill covered by their employer, their landlord, or public funds.

smacl

Bob24 wrote: »

I am not familiar with the mining landscape, but I guess there must also be quite a few small miners who do it because their cost is covered by someone else? For exemple a PhD student who has a workstation mining in their college office and that no one else pays attention to. Or someone who for whatever reason has their electricity bill covered by their employer, their landlord, or public funds.

No doubt, but the amount mined is tiny compared to small farms. For example, I've a few workstations which are always on as part of a continuous integration setup and have them mining, effectively generating a few euro per day. A modest farm will be producing a few orders of magnitude more. What surprises me are that there are a proportionately large enough number of small miners to make up that gap. There aren't that many PhD students with access to do this, more likely the enthusiast with dedicated rigs of 10 or more GPUs, but even then, I hadn't thought there were tens of thousands of these either. If enthusiast miners are producing 30%-40% of the work, then I'm clearly wrong here.

unkel

I'd say there are more than a few IT managers who've stuck an ASIC miner in the server room

smacl

unkel wrote: »

I'd say there are more than a few IT managers who've stuck an ASIC miner in the server room

Probably, but if you think about it, it constitutes theft from their employer in terms of power as well as potentially compromising security for personal gain. While I mine with GPUs in my own small company, if an employee started mining for their own profit at my expense they'd get shown the door.

garrettod

smacl wrote: »

Probably, but if you think about it, it constitutes theft from their employer in terms of power as well as potentially compromising security for personal gain......

100% correct, but very few would ever get caught, as almost no one has a clue what anything is in a server room, not alone the purpose it might serve.

IT staff have far too much power imho. We need far more internal IT auditors, to monitor the IT staff

h0neybadger

garrettod wrote: »

100% correct, but very few would ever get caught, as almost no one has a clue what anything is in a server room, not alone the purpose it might serve.

IT staff have far too much power imho. We need far more internal IT auditors, to monitor the IT staff

Shhh don’t spoil it.

smacl

garrettod wrote: »

100% correct, but very few would ever get caught, as almost no one has a clue what anything is in a server room, not alone the purpose it might serve.

IT staff have far too much power imho. We need far more internal IT auditors, to monitor the IT staff

Maybe, though I notice av software is increasingly start to report mining apps and services as suspicious. That and many of the IT staff I've met over the years have all the skills of the crew at Renholm industries