space_tourist wrote: » smurgen wrote: » I personally believe the world in general is in for an economic adjustment.i believe equities and the stock market in general are over valued currently and that the likes of facebook and google are in for a cut in value in the next 3 years or so.this will mean tightening of the belts in many of the multinationals in ireland and like have a knock on effect on the sustainablility of workers paying massive mortages and rents. Anyone thinking Ireland is insulated from economic crashes now or has learned any lessons from the last crash are living in cuckoo land. I have the ability to buy now but have chosen not to.i belive renting is more expensive now but i do not fancy getting up to my neck in debt given an uncertain future wage rate. only one equity market globally ( im talking major markets ) is over valued or even has had a very strong run and thats the u.s market japans stock market today is still about 60% below where it was in 1989 most european markets are not much higher than they were in about the year 2000 , germany is the one exception , the irish stock market is still at least 20% below its 2007 all time high people can convince themselves of impending doom australia has had non stop property price increases for twenty five years straight , our crash here was incredibly large and we overshot the bottom , increases may significantly moderate but there is no inherent reason to believe we have another crash like the last one , we may not have one like it again for centuries , it was that big !
smurgen wrote: » I personally believe the world in general is in for an economic adjustment.i believe equities and the stock market in general are over valued currently and that the likes of facebook and google are in for a cut in value in the next 3 years or so.this will mean tightening of the belts in many of the multinationals in ireland and like have a knock on effect on the sustainablility of workers paying massive mortages and rents. Anyone thinking Ireland is insulated from economic crashes now or has learned any lessons from the last crash are living in cuckoo land. I have the ability to buy now but have chosen not to.i belive renting is more expensive now but i do not fancy getting up to my neck in debt given an uncertain future wage rate.
smurgen wrote: » How is the irish stock market undervalued?do you fancy a punt on irish banks? I have some magic beans for you to buy if you do. A big factor that is coming down the line is the slowing of the chinese economy.it has been growing at 10% for the past 30 years.the end of last year it starting sluttering.it's only a matter of time before the oz economy implodes as a result.there will be a ripple effect on china's slow down internationally. The japanese economy is also not going to provide growth,the population decline there will see to that. Lets face it,central banks have thrown out all the tricks they could following the 2008 crises with quantative easing and low interest rates.everything rose and economies rose. However if another crises comes will they be able to do the same again? and now that interest rates are set to rise will companies and demand provide real growth to economies?i really cannot see wher future growth can come from.
space_tourist wrote: » smurgen wrote: » How is the irish stock market undervalued?do you fancy a punt on irish banks? I have some magic beans for you to buy if you do. A big factor that is coming down the line is the slowing of the chinese economy.it has been growing at 10% for the past 30 years.the end of last year it starting sluttering.it's only a matter of time before the oz economy implodes as a result.there will be a ripple effect on china's slow down internationally. The japanese economy is also not going to provide growth,the population decline there will see to that. Lets face it,central banks have thrown out all the tricks they could following the 2008 crises with quantative easing and low interest rates.everything rose and economies rose. However if another crises comes will they be able to do the same again? and now that interest rates are set to rise will companies and demand provide real growth to economies?i really cannot see wher future growth can come from. irish bank stocks are dirt cheap but then again european bank shares are dirt cheap ( doesnt mean id buy them ) , irish banks are making huge profits due to the obscene interest rates they charge compared to other eurozone banks there is always and has always been a potential major crisis around the corner , the kind of one which broke in 2008 comes around no more than twice each century however , if it came around more often , the world would fall to pieces
smurgen wrote: Rent is out of line but you can correct that by leaving your rental property.where is the pressure release valve on a house?post the keys to the bank?
smurgen wrote: » Rent is out of line but you can correct that by leaving your rental property.where is the pressure release valve on a house?post the keys to the bank?
4ensic15 wrote: » Things can, and do, change!
space_tourist wrote: » if it came around more often , the world would fall to pieces
drillyeye wrote: » Vulture funds, Brexit, Trump, protectionism, nationalism, globalisation, immigration, multinational companies, corporate tax rates, thousands upon thousands of mortgages still in arrears from last crash, stupefying rent prices....and more and more. Its 100% about vulnerability, and we are reaching saturation point of exposure. Is it going to cost 1 million euros average (adjusted) to buy a 1 bed apartment in Dublin in 2025? Of course not, it quite literally cannot happen. Will you be paying 4000 a month rent for a 1 bed apartment in Dublin in 2025? Of course not, it simply cannot happen either. Can the economy lurch on without any increases? Of course, but only at maximum exposure to risk, an "any second now" kind of situation. We are practically at bursting point already, and that's all you need to know. What pops the bubble is essentially irrelevant, and when it happens its going to be much worse than before simply based on everything in plain sight. My "money" is on a crash within 3 years (bearing in mind that the last one took less than 9 months to kick off) Don't be the "greater fool".
fliball123 wrote: » Where are you getting 3 years from what info is there out there that points to a crash in 3 years?
drillyeye wrote: » The point of my post was that people are looking for triggers, and that's like looking for a needle in a haystack. You need only look at the fundamentals. Are the fundamentals sound in the irish property market, do they make sense, is it sustainable, or practical and so on? Its a resounding "no" to good fundamentals being in place. So......assuming maximum (or near to maximum) exposure due to extremely poor fundamentals.....I simply make a guess that ANYTHING can cause a disastrous domino effect. It could be brexit, just as much as it could also be a new disease that devastates banana crops in south America and tips the first domino! Basically, if everything is primed (or near primed) to collapse, then you simply have to err on the side of probability, and probability would be "sooner rather than later". I pick 3 years, without going into nitty gritty detail (which, as I said, is a mistake to focus upon). A guess that sides with the odds.
fliball123 wrote: » Where are you getting that the fundamentals are not sound how does or are you comparing the irish property market to some where else?
drillyeye wrote: » I don't have all day to point out the obvious, so I'll include a few straight off the top of my head. Does the fact that the market precludes single people make sense for a functioning society? Does it make sense that working 40 hours a week could mean 20+ of those hours goes into a landlords/banks pocket, essentially negating the purpose of work (progress)? Can rents keep rising indefinitely, can prices keep rising indefinitely? Can members of society put off having children indefinitely without a near-lifetime debt put upon them? Does the increasing concentration of employment opportunity in cities make sense, when the reward of said employment is decreasing due to housing costs? Do the rising numbers of homeless mean nothing? I'll just stop there, because the amount of fundamentally flawed situations is innumerable. The whole "thing" is entirely based on "me" and "now". There is no regard for the future whatsoever, for all the neverending guff from governments, there is NO plan in place. It takes only a peek to realise that it doesn't add up in any positive way. You can keep poking for answers that literally nobody can provide, because predicting the future is ALL guesswork. The fact that someone cannot provide you with a fact does not mean your guess is therefore correct. Look at san Francisco, berlin, Dublin, paris, Glasgow......they are all suffering under the exact same circumstances. Look for similar message boards in these areas, and see people bemoan the exact same things, such as lack of progress, no future, cant start a family, cant get work anywhere else, mortgages through the roof, rents through the roof..... Anybody who looks at the fundamentals of sustainability in these places, and then comes to the conclusion that "its grand" and will continue.....fair play to them!
fret_wimp2 wrote: » Eurostat says Mean ireland earings per annum (for 2014) is 48k. that seems like quite a big difference from the CSO number of 37k
fliball123 wrote: » I dont think rents or house prices will continue to go up at the rate they are. At the moment I think they are correcting the bust where prices went way below what they should of been. A simple way to calculate what a property is worth is what it would yield in rent for the lifetime of a mortgage 15/20 years.
fliball123 wrote: » Ireland is a small country and there is a finite amount of land in the country. Prices will rise for a long time here.
fliball123 wrote: » smurgen wrote: » Rent is out of line but you can correct that by leaving your rental property.where is the pressure release valve on a house?post the keys to the bank? And go where the street?
smurgen wrote: » Cheaper rental.
Creative83 wrote: » "Do you think property will crash again" Of course it will, only a matter of time. Current prices are grossly inflated and unsustainable. A tsunami is approaching, to think otherwise is naive.
Graham wrote: » I think that's far too simplistic to be honest. Prices for most things don't just drop because they are expensive.
Creative83 wrote: » A whiff of an economic downturn in this country and the house of cards will come crumbling down again
Graham wrote: » Good luck finding those cheaper rentals in areas where people want/need to live. Whichever way you look at it rental properties and rental prices are subject to the same supply-constrained/high-priced market that potential home-buyers are facing.
Pawwed Rig wrote: » Not really. During the last boom people were commuting long distances from places like Port Laoise and Kinnegad. Rentals there are still cheap as chips (as are houses). Seems that people now are less willing to do these long commutes.
