Pawwed Rig wrote: » Without trying to provoke a reaction Cork does not even enter the argument. It's suitability for a large port is irrelevant. Balbriggan was proposed a few years ago and this would seem a good idea. Freeing up all the land around the docks and putting light rail up and down the quays could accommodate huge amounts of residential accommodation. The elephant on the room imo is the amount of council owned properties walking distance from city centres. There is no need to have relatively un productive people living on premium land. Removing height restrictions would also help
PokeHerKing wrote: » That's a serious 10 year short right there! The reality being if you thought property was overpriced in 2002 and held off for a "crash" and bought in 2012 then I'd say you roughly paid the same price for the property but dumped 100k+ into renting for that period. I would say the percentage of ordinary people who timed it deliberately is in the 0.0001%. Most people bought when they could and some got lucky with timing as will always happen. Buy a home that you're happy to stay in for 10+ years and you'll ride most ups and downs.
theboringfox wrote: » Solution to the problem in Dublin is to increase supply and main issue affecting supply in my view is NIMBYism stopping people building up. Build loads of nice apartments at higher levels. Cost of each unit will fall rapidly and more people can live in City centre. That'll free up lot of housing too. We need houses too but it's building upwards into that precious skyline is key and people should be voting out councillors and TDs who oppose it
PokeHerKing wrote: The reality being if you thought property was overpriced in 2002 and held off for a "crash" and bought in 2012 then I'd say you roughly paid the same price for the property but dumped 100k+ into renting for that period.
Villa05 wrote: » PokeHerKing wrote: The reality being if you thought property was overpriced in 2002 and held off for a "crash" and bought in 2012 then I'd say you roughly paid the same price for the property but dumped 100k+ into renting for that period. I note that you excluded the cost of the bust in your example a cost that is borne by all of us through higher taxes, looting of pension Reserves, poor infrastructure and poor services plus massive debt on future generations The price of a broken property market stretches far beyond the individual cost of accommodation and affects homeowners as well as people who don't own there home.
Elessar wrote: » Just have to reply to this to say very well said, you are 100% correct. I work in IT and over the last 3 years EVERY single one of the non-national IT engineers we have hired have resigned and returned to their original country. While I don't know each of their specific reasons, I know at least some of it is due to the housing issue. Our european colleagues are baffled at not being able to get accomodation in Dublin that is so readily available (and the norm) in most EU cities. They are baffled at having to either share a room in a house with 2 or 3 others in the suburbs or having to pay enormous amounts of money for a 12 month lease in a less than ideal apartment. I'm searching for a 2 bed place at the moment with my girlfriend in north dublin but last nights search turned up 1 (yes ONE) place within our budget (1500pm) in a fairly wide area. It's absolutely crazy how the market is at the moment. Where she is from (a city in Germany smaller than Dublin) good quality apartments are readily available and 800pm would get you a really nice place, with all bills included, and an indefinite lease. I just can't believe Ireland (esp Dublin) has gotten the way it has with regards accomodation. We need thousands more one and two apartments in and near the city ASAP.
Andrew Beef wrote: None of that was to fix a broken property market; it was to fix broken banks. As a result of tighter rules, the banks are now insulated.
Villa05 wrote: » Andrew Beef wrote: None of that was to fix a broken property market; it was to fix broken banks. As a result of tighter rules, the banks are now insulated. Broken banks are a consequence of a broken property market. Insulation is worthless when your foundations are on bog land. Banks are still broken. The ratio of non performing loans on their books is multiples of their eu counterparts. This is after a bailout that brought the imf to our doorstep and 5/6 years of economic ""recovery"
Andrew Beef wrote: » The above just isn’t accurate. Banks now model property crashes as part of their capital maintenance protocols. People seem to delight in thinking that another crash is coming and in lampooning people who content that “this time it’s different”. But this time it’s very different.
Villa05 wrote: I note that you excluded the cost of the bust in your example a cost that is borne by all of us through higher taxes, looting of pension Reserves, poor infrastructure and poor services plus massive debt on future generations
CalRobert wrote: » I'm a software engineer from another country living in Dublin for 5 years. This rings pretty true. I wouldn't want to return to my home country but if I can get a remote work arrangement set up I could see buying a farmhouse in Germany or something cash and just wokring from there (once naturalized). It seems crazy that earning around the 90th percentile of incomes in this country you can't buy a halfway decent flat in city centre or near a rail line.
Hector Savage wrote: » Course it will crash again, you think it can just grow and grow and grow ? Infinite growth based on finite resources will always crash.
fliball123 wrote: » There is no basis for a crash within the next 20 years.
fliball123 wrote: » Ireland is a small country and there is a finite amount of land in the country. Prices will rise for a long time here.
hots wrote: » I'd agree with lot's of your post, but this is just silly. 20 years is a long time.
Bob24 wrote: » To European standards we have very low population density. If a lack of land was a major cause of concern for us, most European countries would already have civil wars because of it (but Belgium which is 5 times more densely populated than Ireland has cheaper housing).
fliball123 wrote: » That is just one of the factors but just to throw a thorn in your theoy Belgium is almost land locked with countries surrounding it and I have a friend who is living in Eischweiler Germany (forgive the spelling) who commutes to work in Liege in Belgium.
Bob24 wrote: » Because some people commute there doesn’t change the fact that it is 5 times the population density. We are not going to have a land shortage anytime soon. (a real issue though is the poor use of this land in Dublin with a lot of unused land due to improper zoning or speculation, and the urge for every person to have a house with a garden which means very low popularion density for a capital city)
fliball123 wrote: true but if you look at the last cycle is started back in the early 90s and finished in 2011/12 about 20 years from start to finish or from bust - boom - bust
fliball123 wrote: This time the fundamentals are better, the banks are more protected and the supply/demand ratio is a hell of a lot more skewed on the demand side.
Wanderer78 wrote: » Past economic cycles are no guarantee for current economic trends and possible future economic busts, such is the complexity of these cycles, but I do understand your logic. I suspect our banks are not as well protected as we think, and the next economic crisis will be more so effected from external factors than the last time, I think we maybe becoming complacent regarding these issues
Wanderer78 wrote: » I suspect our banks are not as well protected as we think, and the next economic crisis will be more so effected from external factors than the last time, I think we maybe becoming complacent regarding these issues
Arthur Daley wrote: » ... So are some here suggesting average property prices can keep growing for another what 10-15 years? What will the average house cost then? 1 million euros? Who is going to pay it? Wages are being capped in an awful lot of places, even today. The increase in supply of labour has suppressed wages at many levels. Automation and AI will put hundreds of thousands out of work within the next 30 years according to the plans being rolled out of places like Davos. ...
Skedaddle wrote: » There are few if any cities of Dublin's size (around 1 million) where a 72.9km commute would be considered normal. That's how far Mullingar is. It's the 39th largest metropolitan area in the EU up there with Lille, Helsinki, Glasgow and Antwerp. Incidentally, most cities of that scale on the continent have very good public transportation, some even have full metros. The way that people talk on some of these threads you'd think it was reasonable to compare Dublin with megacities like London, Paris, New York etc. It's a pretty small city with totally inadequate housing stock to meet an economic boom. This is driven by a dysfunctional banking system that's not healthy enough to fund development, developers who are still not over the 2008 crash and a planning system that's created endless problems over the decades. We are still basically nursing debts from the last crash which is in large part why the supply hasn't been on stream and is being slow to come back. Also the housing stock is totally inappropriate to meet the demand. We have a situation where there are very few apartments suitable for single people in particular which results in thousands of young professionals having to share accomodation in family homes. That's pushing those of reach of families while still providing poor accommodation. If you think about it, instead of a host accomodating a family, in a lot of cases in Dublin it's accomodating maybe 4 or even 6 ( might be two couples and two singles) adults on good incomes. It's actually fairly unusual (and very unattractive) to have to house share beyond student days, but it's the norm in Dublin. It means not having your own bathrooms, cooking facilities and having limited privacy. I think a lot of the properties in Dublin are only meeting the insane rents by people sharing. I've never seen anywhere with such an amount of doubling and tripling up. It's one reason I know quite a few Continental professionals in IT who've packed up after a year and gone to Berlin and elsewhere. Dublin (and even Cork) has very inadequate accommodation. If you look at cities like Brussels and Antwerp, a couple or even a single person on a reasonable income can expect to be able to live on their own in a pretty nice apartment, within the city and suburbs (not 79km away) and not be at the pin of their collar. You're not going to be able to afford a mansion, but you'll have your pick of nice, comfortable, reasonably-sized apartments in most suburban areas as will have a good quality of life. You'll also find plenty of long lease options and unfurnished apartments that you can make your home. They're not full of landlord furniture and cheap appliances someone found while dumpster diving or in some ultra cheap shop that does landlord specials. People actually start building up their own furnishings in their 20s as they move onwards and upwards they just bring them with them. That's not an unreasonable or unusual expectation. It's also a big part of what defines quality of life. Failure to address this issue or pretending that it's a normal state of affairs is a major part of why Dublin doesn't rank well as a livable city. What's the point of working hard if it's just running on a hamster wheel to live in what amounts to a hovel? Or commuting 79km to a small city? It makes no sense and it's what's going to limit Dublin and Ireland's growth potential. I find the Irish market is really creating a very odd mess of sharing and nearly locking people into student like living standards for way too long. I know single professionals with good jobs in Dublin still sharing in their late 30s and even 40s. They've no a prospects of any better as their industries don't pay the wage levels that will afford more. Also in Ireland if you're not married or living with your partner, it's a complete nightmare to find decent housing in the cities as a single adult. Unless you're on a very good income, you really might as well emigrate. There's very, very little in the way of suitable housing. Most of the French people I know who move here for IT jobs see Ireland as a place to break into an industry, then leave. That's because of three factors: 1. Housing. 2. Health - mostly anyone I know who has experienced the HSE via the A&E system or has had a serious medical issue and has had to a wait months just re-evaluates remaining here and goes back to France or Germany etc. I know a lot of continental Europeans and there really is horror at the state or the Irish health system. It's barely developed world standards in terms of access to services, yet it's very well funded. Again: bad planning/management just like housing. It operates as one endless crisis with everyone running around in circles chasing their tails. How the hell we have created this mess is beyond me. It's literally unbelievably bad. 3. Pensions. A lot of people I've spoken to see Ireland and also Britian as places to start a career but not places to continue it or retire in. There are concerns about pension provision, regulation of funds, poor state services etc. That's not good for our economy as we're only getting people to stay for a few years at most. Fix those 3 and you've one of the world's best places to live. Don't fix them and you will always be second tier.
Skedaddle wrote: » There are few if any cities of Dublin's size (around 1 million) where a 72.9km commute would be considered normal. That's how far Mullingar is. It's the 39th largest metropolitan area in the EU up there with Lille, Helsinki, Glasgow and Antwerp. .... They're not full of landlord furniture and cheap appliances someone found while dumpster diving or in some ultra cheap shop that does landlord specials. .... ....
