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Snow and Ice Warning : Saturday(PM)/Sunday 9th/10th December - SEE MOD NOTE POST #1

Kermit.de.frog

MOD NOTE

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed - report & let the Mod team deal with it

**It would be helpful to all that when posting weather reports that locations are added in the post ( this can be kept general if preferred) **

Thanks

As requested.

Sunday will be an event for many Northern and North Western areas. With regards to other areas it's a delicate situation.

To summarise:

Rain will move in from the southwest on Saturday night but will meet embedded very cold air over the country. It will turn to snow as it moves northeastward. It's a classic "battle ground" scenario between different air masses.

It will fall as snow initially over North Leinster (it will turn back to rain for a time). Over Ulster and most of Connaught it will fall as heavy snow throughout the event. Large accumulations in these parts. I would be of the opinion at least an orange warning is needed for these parts as of now - possibly red nearer the time.

Later on Sunday as the system begins to unwind and move away it returns to snow over Leinster and turns to snow in Munster with accumulations here. Not as significant but could still be disruptive.

As it clears it gets very cold and icy - another hazard in itself. Temperatures will plunge Sunday night well below freezing. Coldest night of the year so far.

This looks a severe event in the north and northwest including northern Connaught right now.

There is still the risk of significant snow further south as well. This is not 100% nailed in terms of where this will effect. Regardless many are going to see a significant snowfall.

I think it is safe to say this will be the most significant frontal snow event the country has seen in many years for the areas effected.

This is 48 hours out. There is no doubt it will be impactful.

Another risk is flooding, a lot of water associated with this.

I would advise people in the north and northwest - and Connaught - to keep up to date on forecasts and be prepared.

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Oscar Bravo

GhostyMcGhost wrote: »

Sure sounds like it!

that must of been some day in June 76! clear blue skies, fields cut, tar melting. nice records.

Oscar Bravo

2313 Met Update

Further heavy rain over Munster tonight with a risk of local flooding.
A mixture of heavy rain and heavy snow will extend over Connacht and Leinster, and it will stay mostly dry for Ulster. Lowest temperatures from +6 degrees in the south to generally between 0 and minus 6.
Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds for most but strong to gale force westerly winds will affect western and southern coastal areas by dawn and continue over Munster for a time Sunday morning.

Tomorrow

Sunday:
A further mixture of heavy rain, sleet and snow on Sunday will cause dangerous and disruptive conditions in places.
Clearer weather over Ulster will gradually extend southwards during the afternoon and evening.
Daytime temperatures will range zero to 7 degrees but a severe frost and icy conditions will set in quickly to all areas Sunday evening.

Outlook

Sunday night: A widespread severe air and ground frost will result in dangerous icy conditions on untreated surfaces. Minimum temperatures -2 to -8 degrees.

Drumpot

It’s funny cause I live on the coast of Meath (Bettystown) and we never get any decent snow but the BBC weather forecast made it look like we are going to get pummeled! I came straight here and MTCranium quickly put paid to those delusions of Grandeur, in a good way... I always value the updates from this forum....

GhostyMcGhost

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

that must of been some day in June 76! clear blue skies, fields cut, tar melting. nice records.

Yeah I’d say in Thomastown 82 you’d be wishing for 76 again when your standing out in a field, freezing your nads off trying to get the cows into a barn

Danno

TheRiverman

Breeze/wind has picked up significantly here in West Offaly,no rain or snow yet.

Oscar Bravo

11pm reports

Knock -1
Markree(sligo) -1
Ballyhaise -1

(Sherkin islands 9 degrees)

Speak Now

GhostyMcGhost wrote: »

Sure sounds like it!

Does that weather station still exist. I know Met Eireann replaced with with Oak park. Got to Urban i think.

Lashing in Waterford now 7c.

konman

Just started raining here with an odd bit of schleet thrown in.
5 miles south of Tuam

Hooter23

The Snow has arrived in Galway cant wait to build one these tomorrow:)

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTCp5lz4ai99Ho0mU885383ReenuC3Cr3WtrXMHhPdb2HZnsK-idg

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTCp5lz4ai99Ho0mU885383ReenuC3Cr3WtrXMHhPdb2HZnsK-idg

Danno

[Deleted User]

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

that must of been some day in June 76! clear blue skies, fields cut, tar melting. nice records.

I remember that day in Kilkenny!! It was the hottest day in a long hot Summer

- we haven't had a Summer like it since.

JCX BXC

5.4mm so far here in West Clare, rate of 8.8mm/h, if this was snow I don't think I'd be leaving the house for a while!

mickmackey1

Lashing rain in mid-Limerick too.

eastmayo

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

11pm reports

Knock -1
Markree(sligo) -1
Ballyhaise -1

(Sherkin islands 9 degrees)

Looks like the rain sleet near castlebar?

M.T. Cranium

The 18z Arpege shows a scenario in which rain that spreads over most of the eventual snowfall zone changes to snow hour by hour with the snow beginning to prevail over most central and inland southeast counties by 0600h, then the second low looks quite promisingly deep (976 mbs) and it may become the focus of some exceptionally heavy snowfalls further west than some might be expecting, like from Galway south and southeast to Limerick. That stage would come around mid-day Sunday with the rest of the snowfall zone in light to moderate snow, always edging further south.

The main problem for Meath is being too far north rather than too mild, except along the coast it's both problems. If those can be overcome by some extension of the precip shield co-operating with a lack of inflow of Irish Sea surface layer warming, then Meath could see 5 cms.

Here are my best guesses county by county:

Galway and Roscommon -- 10-15 cm south, 5-10 cm north
Mayo, Sligo and Leitrim -- 2-5 cm southern portions, trace to 2 cm north
(most of Ulster will only get localized flurries outside the storm zone, southern boundaries could see 1-2 cm)

Clare -- 5 to 10 cm except 2 to 5 cm southwest of Ennis
Limerick -- 8 to 12 cm
Kerry -- snow only on higher terrain
Cork -- some northern parts 5 cm, south see Kerry
Tipps -- 10 to 15 cm
Waterford -- 5 to 10 cm on some northern hills, trace to 3 cm south
Wexford -- 5 to 10 cm well inland, trace to 3 cm near coast
Carlow, Laois, Kilkenny -- 10 to 20 cm, potential for 30 cm on higher ground
Wicklow -- 10 to 20 cm west of higher ground, and on some east-facing slopes above 200m, trace to 3 cm coastal
Kildare, Offaly, south Westmeath, southwest Meath, western co. Dublin -- 15 to 25 cm, risk of freezing rain mixing in
Longford -- 5 to 10 cm (15 cm south possibly)
Dublin -- wide variations from zero near shoreline to 10 cm on higher parts of city
Meath -- gradual reduction from 20 cm southwest corner to 5 cm central to near zero coastal
Louth -- likely to be outside snowfall zone but potentially could see 2-3 cm.

Apologies if I overlooked your county

Oscar Bravo

Latest Rain will become latest Snow further North later, a set up like this is fairly rare , to those who get Snow photos please!

DQo_BPBXUAIJeYJ.jpg:large

4068ac1elhodqr

More green appearing now, let it snow.

Screen_Shot_2017-12-09_at_23.39.21.png

[Deleted User]

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Carlow, Laois, Kilkenny -- 10 to 20 cm, potential for 30 cm on higher ground

Apologies if I overlooked your county

One more sleep:D!!!

km79

Oh lordee
Not looking forward to the drive from Shannon. To Athenry tomorrow

road_high

Speak Now wrote: »

Does that weather station still exist. I know Met Eireann replaced with with Oak park. Got to Urban i think.

Lashing in Waterford now 7c.

Yea it was moved to Oakpark in 2008.

irishfeen

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Here are my best guesses county by county:

Cork -- some northern parts 5 cm, south see Kerry

Apologies if I overlooked your county

5cm in northern areas of Cork County would be significant, especially if we got anything like that as far south as Mallow Town - a very rare event indeed if it was to come through.

davidsr20

Sleet here now. Craughwell Galway.

Pangea

This thread is a hard read for those of us in Donegal. Enjoy your snow guys, looks epic.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Zero wind, fog, light frost.

Coastal Meath.

pauldry

According to snowdar its now snowing on hills in galway mayo n sleeting everywhere else that precipitation is falling in much of these counties. Minus 6 wasnt reached.

chelseavera

Very VERY light snow here in North Mayo now. Result - as it's not been preceded by rain. It'll stick if (when!) it gets heavier!

loughside

Hi all, you may have this site already but it`s been a good radar one for me lately, updates every 10 mins or so.
https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

squarecircles

Beginning to turn sleety here in West Mayo, feels Baltic outside in the wind

mirrorwall14

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The 18z Arpege shows a scenario in which rain that spreads over most of the eventual snowfall zone changes to snow hour by hour with the snow beginning to prevail over most central and inland southeast counties by 0600h, then the second low looks quite promisingly deep (976 mbs) and it may become the focus of some exceptionally heavy snowfalls further west than some might be expecting, like from Galway south and southeast to Limerick. That stage would come around mid-day Sunday with the rest of the snowfall zone in light to moderate snow, always edging further south.

The main problem for Meath is being too far north rather than too mild, except along the coast it's both problems. If those can be overcome by some extension of the precip shield co-operating with a lack of inflow of Irish Sea surface layer warming, then Meath could see 5 cms.

Here are my best guesses county by county:

Galway and Roscommon -- 10-15 cm south, 5-10 cm north
Mayo, Sligo and Leitrim -- 2-5 cm southern portions, trace to 2 cm north
(most of Ulster will only get localized flurries outside the storm zone, southern boundaries could see 1-2 cm)

Clare -- 5 to 10 cm except 2 to 5 cm southwest of Ennis
Limerick -- 8 to 12 cm
Kerry -- snow only on higher terrain
Cork -- some northern parts 5 cm, south see Kerry
Tipps -- 10 to 15 cm
Waterford -- 5 to 10 cm on some northern hills, trace to 3 cm south
Wexford -- 5 to 10 cm well inland, trace to 3 cm near coast
Carlow, Laois, Kilkenny -- 10 to 20 cm, potential for 30 cm on higher ground
Wicklow -- 10 to 20 cm west of higher ground, and on some east-facing slopes above 200m, trace to 3 cm coastal
Kildare, Offaly, south Westmeath, southwest Meath, western co. Dublin -- 15 to 25 cm, risk of freezing rain mixing in
Longford -- 5 to 10 cm (15 cm south possibly)
Dublin -- wide variations from zero near shoreline to 10 cm on higher parts of city
Meath -- gradual reduction from 20 cm southwest corner to 5 cm central to near zero coastal
Louth -- likely to be outside snowfall zone but potentially could see 2-3 cm.

Apologies if I overlooked your county

MT Cranium may I ask about the Kildare forecast. Here in north Kildare and some of the models look like we may be missed entirely but you have 15-20cm? I’m on the hoping for snow bandwagon but just curious as to the discrepancy between posters saying we may miss out and yours. I’ve been around long enough to trust your forecasting and be jumping for joy at this particular one when I was on the downer section of the rollercoaster