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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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Coles

yannakis wrote: »

..wind is off the chart with max set at (default) 50 Knots!!

Set it to 70 knots on the top right drop down menu.

Gaoth Laidir

This from Met Éireann's Twitter

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/919854359403552768

Meteorite58

Donegal Storm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

This from Met Éireann's Twitter

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/919854359403552768

Hurricane force right across the south coast? Definite upgrade if thats the case, stronger than any of the models on meteociel are showing. Up to strong gale force even in the midlands

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/919864199009984513

https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/919861025352093696

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/919854359403552768

star gazer

https://twitter.com/FastnetLHouse/status/919864152725884931
Fastnet 78 knots wind, gusting 103 knots

Panrich

Fastnet Lighthouse‏ @FastnetLHouse 1m1 minute ago
More
Avg Wind:78kts, Gust:103kts, Wind Dir:179 °(S), Gust Dir:181 °(S) at 16/10/2017 10:50:00

Hammer Archer

Winds at Fastnet still increasing. 78kts (144km/h) gusting to 103kts (190km/h).

magicbastarder

that's a national record, yeah?

Indestructable

star gazer wrote: »

https://twitter.com/FastnetLHouse/status/919864152725884931
Fastnet 78 knots wind, gusting 103 knots

Whats 103 in km? Is it 190??

DOCARCH

magicbastarder wrote: »

that's a national record, yeah?

Not for a lighthouse high up on an exposed rock!

server down

That’s 190 kmph

server down

DOCARCH wrote: »

Not for a lighthouse high up on an exposed rock!

You sure? Obviously it’s going to be windier there but nearly 200 km/h is pretty strong.

George Sunsnow

DOCARCH wrote: »

Not for a lighthouse high up on an exposed rock!

6.5km’s out to sea too

DOCARCH

server down wrote: »

You sure? Obviously it’s going to be windier there but nearly 200 km/h is pretty strong.

Yes. That will not appear in any official data for this or any other storm, same as for wind recorded on the Kinsale Gas Platform, or, wind recorded on mountain tops (on communication masts). Recording equipment at these locations would not be at standard recording height (10m over ground level).

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/UKWX_/status/919866243930316802

iLikeWaffles

Is there any live or the 15 minute updated feed from METEOSAT-8?

Gaoth Laidir

12.3 metre wave now reported at Kinsale platform.

DOCARCH

Gusting 67kn at Cork Airport.

Gaoth Laidir

06Z Hirlam much the same as the 00Z

pad199207

Gusting 51kts wexford harbour

mhiggy09

Can I ask where or what website are yous getting the info of wind speed and gusts from. Id like to take a look.

JCX BXC

DOCARCH wrote: »

Gusting 67kn at Cork Airport.

That was at 10:30, gusting 63kts at 11am.

kilkenny31

If there is a sting jet. What does it entail and what part of the country would it hit?

DOCARCH

JCX BXC wrote: »

That was at 10:30

Yes...

Meteorite58

Here we go!

Gusting 80 km/h near Tralee

10 min avg 43 km/h

Bar 976.6 hPa Falling Rapidly

DOCARCH

kilkenny31 wrote: »

If there is a sting jet. What does it entail and what part of the country would it hit?

Very hard to forecast.

Oneiric 3

kilkenny31 wrote: »

If there is a sting jet. What does it entail and what part of the country would it hit?

Sting jets usually occur on the S/SW side of storm lows if there is a significant injection of dry air being drawn in. Don' have access to satellite imagry but going by forecast track of low, western/NW counties would be most at risk if a SJ was to occur, but low chance of it happening to be honest.

DOCARCH

Gusting 71kn at 1100 at Roches Point....131kmh.

Oneiric 3

From Met Eireann. Latest sat view. Looks very 'hybrid'.