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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

Just looking ahead into the next couple of weeks to see what might be in store. It would seem to me that after the week coming being under the influence of a weaker more unorganized Jet Stream ,next Weekend on from the 24th gets more organised with a strong Zonal flow producing quite an amount of low's moving up off the coast and then the Jet goes more Meridional with the models predicting lows coming in from the South. It was a recent Meridional jet that introduced warmer tropical continental air with record breaking Temperatures followed by heavy rainfall for some.It also proved a very difficult time for forecasters to predict as there was a big change in forecasts in only a few days with fast forming troughs and lows forming.

0z280Bf.png?1

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mickger844posts

Gfs 06z falling into line with ECM 0z and ensembles. The usual caveats apply of course. Amazing run though all the same

Captain Snow

Possible B-EAST developing.......:D To early to tell as we don"t know how this cold spell of weather will really pan out.

mickger844posts

Latest ECM currently rolling out and still looking good for an Easterly to develop next week.

dexter647

mickger844posts wrote: »

Latest ECM currently rolling out and still looking good for an Easterly to develop next week.

Looking really good indeed but that ecm has lead us down the garden path many a time before.....Not getting excited yet...Once bitten twice shy and all that lark

snowstorm445

FI I know but Chrisht on a bike that's a mighty chart.

https://nwf.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_01/ECH1-192.GIF.png.e2fa74335f54daf68d238fce9b879ad6.png

space2ground1

mickger844posts wrote: »

Latest ECM currently rolling out and still looking good for an Easterly to develop next week.

Forgive my ignorance but the ECM is showing the lines of pressure 7 days out to be lower than the pressure around Ireland. Would that suggest cold air but little or no cloud/precip given the relative high pressure surrounding us?

nacho libre

Snow for all.

Surely it's too good to be true, but nice to look at all the same

ArKl0w

rickdangerouss wrote: »

The Easterly\Extended cold snap looks to have moved back west, could change again. Would think some chances of something, just not as strong.

Moved east you mean
It might be back later;)

highdef

ArKl0w wrote: »

Moved east you mean
It might be back later;)

Latest GFS shows that the cold that had been looking like moving back east is showing as moving west again towards us, in the latest runs.

Call me Al

highdef wrote: »

Latest GFS shows that the cold that had been looking like moving back east is showing as moving west again towards us, in the latest runs.

Oh for God's sake!! On off on off on off.. Which is it!

MJohnston

Call me Al wrote: »

Oh for God's sake!! On off on off on off.. Which is it!

It's both and neither, in varying degrees of probability until nearer to the time!

RobertKK

Joe Bastardi is rather confident.

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/819155482283823105

He thinks it will be like 2013.
That was very cold but frosty, the countryside was burnt by frost, maybe we get snow this time which would be better.

munsterlegend

RobertKK wrote: »

Joe Bastardi is rather confident.

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/819155482283823105

He thinks it will be like 2013.
That was very cold but frosty, the countryside was burnt by frost, maybe we get snow this time which would be better.

He will eventually get lucky and get it right. Prone to hypebole and attention seeking

nacho libre

Another interesting fi chart. Possible height rises in Greenland due to the pv moving east.
There is certainly no sign of raging zonality at the moment from any of the models, but after Friday we will be on the mild side for several days, while England experiences a cool and dry continental feed.
I think it's still very much game on for a more sustained colder outbreak

ninebeanrows

The EC 12 Op is cheeky!!

Would be probably colder than the coldest 0z EC Ensemble! Who would be a Forecaster

mickger844posts

Beast from the East is back ON. Another super ECM 12z run rolling out now. Charts to follow

ArKl0w

We are very much BACK in business

nacho libre

Look at the low pressure in Iberia, surely the high can only go one direction from there, if the ECM is correct.

Somewhere Gerry Murhpy's face is contorting with horror as he contemplates his next tv forecast after seeing the latest ECM

Deatr

Given that the pressure is high am I right in thinking that there won't be any snow with this just cold and frosty? If it comes off!

ArKl0w

nacho libre wrote: »

Look at the low pressure in Iberia, surely the high can only go one direction from there, if the ECM is correct.

Somewhere Gerry Murhpy's face is contorting with horror as he contemplates his next tv forecast after seeing the latest ECM

Also look at the diving low in the Atlantic,heading for the Med?

DOCARCH

Deatr wrote: »

Given that the pressure is high am I right in thinking that there won't be any snow with this just cold and frosty? If it comes off!

Pressure is a bit high for my liking, but, as somebody said yesterday, get the cold here first and then worry about snow!

Rougies

Deatr wrote: »

Given that the pressure is high am I right in thinking that there won't be any snow with this just cold and frosty? If it comes off!

Yes that chart is dry but 2 days later @240hrs it's showing possible snowmageddon!

ECM1-240.GIF?11-0

ArKl0w

DOCARCH wrote: »

Pressure is a bit high for my liking, but, as somebody said yesterday, get the cold here first and then worry about snow!

Pressure is 1020 at 240

hotwhiskey

Rougies wrote: »

Yes that chart is dry but 2 days later @240hrs it's showing possible snowmageddon!

Indeed it is! Nothing short of full blowen Blizzard conditions. If it did happen (not likely) 1947 setup. Epic.

DOCARCH

ArKl0w wrote: »

Pressure is 1020 at 240

I'll take that!

Went back over my records of November/December 2010...it was pretty much dry once pressure was over 1025.

Rebelbrowser

If it wasnt for the brief mild interlude on Sunday, snow falling tomorrow would hang around on north facing surfaces for quite a while....

sryanbruen

Yeah, once I hit 1028mb on December 3, 2010, it was bone dry with no snowfall again 'til 4 days later, December 7 when pressure dropped back down to 1015mb.

EDIT: Oops sorry didn't notice this was the FI Charts thread.

Deatr

Thanks gents!! I'm off to Swedish Lapland on Monday with work hopefully I'll bring something back with me on Wednesday.

PokeHerKing

T minus how many hours are we at if the beasterly confirms lads? NW is too hard to follow, charts just constantly get pushed back to 240+.. are we anywhere near a realistic time yet?

ArKl0w

Couple of points
Easterlies don't need as low uppers as they travel over much more land than sea
Consequently they can have very low dew points with the surface air they bring in
This is type of already frozen conditions our easterly will be traveling over

https://twitter.com/severeweathereu/status/819264825129861120