August 2016 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 02-08-2016 2:03am

Hey that's awkward, well I guess we're stuck with that reality and the fault is mine for not picking up on this during the weekend although I was giving the subject a lot less thought than usual due to sunstroke (a condition that may be unfamiliar to my readers) ...

So if we assume that very few entries took this developing rainstorm into account, maybe a second chance sort of scoring system where you get the higher of two scores although a good forecast for yesterday would count more than any forecast of future peaks? I will have to go over the entries and see how many appeared to be influenced even slightly by the nowcast situation. If it's fewer than a quarter then I think I will give max points to those perceptive individuals and play the rest off half points? Or just score it as if there was no issue, that's going to go mostly to rank ordering of your forecasts (the plan was to go 8 points amount and 2 points location).

If there's a second rainfall over 40 mm in west Munster this month, I think the problem will collapse into being a choice between two equal outcomes so it won't matter. Input welcome.

M.T. Cranium · 02-08-2016 2:54am

Table of forecasts for August 2016

Date of max rain not scored but I listed the forecasts offered ... see my previous post for a discussion of what may need to happen now that a deluge already hit Sherkin Island on 1st.

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max rain, loc'n (date)

Jpmarn _____________16.3 _ 28.7 _ 6.2 _ 110 _ 120 ___ 28.2 Belmullet (6th)
Dacogawa ___ (-6) ___ 15.8 _ 27.1 _ 3.9 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 70.0 Sherkin (15th)
Tae laidir ___________ 15.8 _ 25.8 _ 3.4 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 33.0 Knock
M.T. Cranium ________15.6 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 098 _ 095 ___ 30.0 Gurteen (10th)
sryanbruen __________15.6 _ 26.0 _ 4.9 _ 110 _ 104 ___ 25.2 Valentia (6th)
Rikand ____ (-1) _____ 15.5 _ 27.0 _ 3.5 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 25.0 Mt Dillon (1st)
waterways __________ 15.4 _ 27.3 _ 2.3 _ 091 _ 116 ___ 28.0 Knock
Sunflower3 __________15.4 _ 26.5 _ 4.0 _ 101 _ 095 ___ 14.2 Valentia (18th)
JD________ (-3) _____ 15.3 _ 27.9 _ 2.9 _ 115 _ 093 ___ 29.9 Sherkin
DOCARCH ___________15.3 _ 27.7 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 16.2 Sherkin (10th)
Joe Public ___________ 15.3 _ 26.9 _ 1.9 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 22.9 Roches Point

Con Sensus __________15.3 _ 26.5 _ 3.8 _ 110 _ 098 ___ 25.2 Sherkin*

Bsal________________ 15.3 _ 25.0 _ 3.7 _ 125 _ 099 ___ 33.0 Knock (25th)
Kindred Spirit ________ 15.2 _ 26.2 _ 4.0 _ 085 _ 105 ___ 30.0 Valentia
pauldry______________15.2 _ 25.7 _ 3.0 _ 127 _ 101 ___ 48.2 Roches Pt (31st)
Dasa29 _____________ 15.2 _ 25.0 _ 3.9 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 22.5 Valentia (16th)

Norma L _____________15.1 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 40.0

Lumi ___ (-2) ________ 15.1 _ 26.7 _ 4.5 _ 113 _ 090 ___ 36.0 Sherkin (20th)
200motels ___________ 15.1 _ 26.7 _ 3.0 _ 117 _ 098 ___ 28.2 Roches Pt (7th)
mickger844posts ______ 15.1 _ 25.0 _ 5.9 _ 110 _ 104 ___ 20.2 Valentia (26th)
john mac ____________ 15.0 _ 26.0 _ 5.9 _ 110 _ 098 ___ 32.2 Sherkin (10th)
MrSkinner ____________14.9 _ 24.6 _ 3.8 _ 100 _ 111 ___ 32.0 Valentia
Rameire _____________ 14.7 _ 24.6 _ 3.4 _ 104 _ 098 ___ 25.2 Newport
___________________________________________________________

For the time being, 21 forecasts, Con Sensus is 11th ranked.

* Location of "consensus" was a toss-up between Valentia and Sherkin among those who had posted before 0900h Monday and no edit tags on any posts, so the count (including one in the know on that score) was Valentia 6, Sherkin 5, Roches Point 3, Knock 3 times, and one for each of Belmullet, Gurteen, Mount Dillon and Newport. Sherkin already the strong favourite apparently.

For Norma L the value is based on a wild estimate, it runs a bit higher than many of our uninfluenced-by-reality-of-first forecasts. Most likely location would probably be in west Munster but over a large number of Augusts you would expect a fair scatter as some values would be isolated storms, more would be well-organized events and even the odd tropical remnant like Charley.

The consensus view of the month seems to be a rather warm, slightly wet month with near normal sunshine. The consensus view of the max rainfall before a few late entrants began to catch on would seem to be skewed towards middle third of month. There is always the chance this will verify.

I should mention that Sherkin and Roches Point are not part of the PRC grid so their amounts on first will mean nothing in that category, Valentia, Cork and Shannon are 3/11 of the total, so I will comment on that when I see the numbers. Also Johnstown Castle and Oak Park are another two out of eleven. But three or four of the stations got almost no rain at all so that should balance out.

mrskinner · 02-08-2016 8:54am

"Deadline is 0300h Sunday 1st May, penalties will be 1% for part or all of three hour intervals to 1500h Monday 2nd then 1% per two hours."

If these penalties are applied then the late entries this month will incur penalties of -1, -2, -3, -6.

Rikand · 02-08-2016 1:05pm

I had 30 mm and cork posted :pac:

then edited my post 6 minutes later and said

25 mm and Mount Dillon because for the first time in my life I actually researched

M.T. Cranium · 02-08-2016 3:29pm

mrskinner wrote: »

"Deadline is 0300h Sunday 1st May, penalties will be 1% for part or all of three hour intervals to 1500h Monday 2nd then 1% per two hours."

If these penalties are applied then the late entries this month will incur penalties of -1, -2, -3, -6.

I suspect you are right, my forum time appears to be GMT rather than current time which shows entries an hour "earlier" than they actually were. I will go back into the table of entries and change the late penalties (this moves Rikand from zero to -1).

I think Dacogawa will recover his losses but that's why we have late penalties and this earlier deadline than before.

The "bonus contest" now will be mostly a matter of interest as to the validity of predictions for the period 2nd-31st but you can pretty much figure out the scoring on amounts already, as no higher outcomes will change the way the bonus gets scored anyway (rank ordered groups of three from 8 down to 3 then groups of 2 and 1 for that many points is how I'll do it.) The location, if this holds, will be two points for Sherkin and one for Valentia or Roches Point of the guesses received, Cork would have scored also. No super-bonus because of the nowcast aspect. However, who knows, some lucky location could score a higher rainfall later in the month and change that part of the contest. Hope it's Gurteen or Grr-teen as it will be known.

The rainfall at contest sites on the first was only 88 mm which sounds like a lot but with normal monthly rainfalls of 50 to 70 mm, the average daily total at eleven locations is 20-25 mm, so from that you can see we have started off in the 400% range but that won't be the case after the first week, my current estimate is about 200 to 250 per cent by then. Ironically this rain would have added to July totals to make almost exactly a normal rainfall for 1st July to 1st of August.

M.T. Cranium · 08-08-2016 4:45pm

After the first week ...

IMT on 16.0 which is 0.5 above normal for the period.

PRC at 94% of normal.

SUN only 61.5% of normal.

MAX of 23.7 at Phoenix Park on 6th.

MIN that I could find was a mere 9.5 at Moorepark, unlikely to hold.

pauldry · 09-08-2016 1:16am

Min is already 9c tonight

Headn to bed

Itl be 6 or 7c by morning

M.T. Cranium · 15-08-2016 3:21pm

After two weeks ...

IMT on 15.34 with the week 14.7 (0.7 below the normal for the period).

PRC has fallen to 64% after a very dry week (33% on average, zero at JC).

SUN now at 66% with the second week continued rather dull at 70%, Cork did manage a normal amount.

MAX had remained on 23.7 until today, as of 15z highest hourly appears to be 23 so this could be revised by end of the day.

MIN during the two weeks was 8.2 on 9th but last night Dublin fell to 7 C on hourlies, will confirm the new MIN tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium · 16-08-2016 4:16pm

MIN was 6.4 C at Dublin on 15th. MAX was not quite broken on 15th (23.6) but will be today as three stations at 25 C at 1500h.

pauldry · 16-08-2016 6:20pm

25.2c in Sunny Sligo

Its still gettn warmer

Wonder will the 26c mark be hit

Nope....theyv all gone down at 6pm

So 25.something it is

pauldry · 16-08-2016 8:20pm

25c in Shannon n Claremorris

Care to beat that Mt Dillon or Newport

Rikand · 17-08-2016 3:39pm

25.5C in Athenry
25.2C in Mount Dillon

M.T. Cranium · 18-08-2016 7:14pm

Worth noting that Mace Head recorded 33.1 mm rain on 17th, second highest daily event so far, won't change the scoring for amounts but if it holds as second, will give one point out of two for anyone in that area (Knock, Newport, Belmullet) for a good try. Re the "controversy" of a late entry nailing the bonus, the late penalty more or less cancels out the high score expected there. I expect some more high totals near the south coast tomorrow if there isn't too much sharing with today's startup amounts, will be interesting to see what totals today and tomorrow muster in that regard.

John mac · 20-08-2016 8:07am

can anyone get access to rainfall data from Straid or is data collected from there ? on Wednesday 17th ?
we had biblical rain , but very localised ,
it would be interesting .

pauldry · 20-08-2016 8:18am

Is it Straid in Mayo?

There was 12.6mm of rain in one hour in Newport.

Thats fairly biblical

M.T. Cranium · 20-08-2016 8:11pm

John mac wrote: »

can anyone get access to rainfall data from Straid or is data collected from there ? on Wednesday 17th ?
we had biblical rain , but very localised ,
it would be interesting .

I checked the location on google earth to be sure, and so three met.ie stations nearby had about 30 mm each, Mace Head earlier had 33 mm with 12 mm in one hour.

There are no recording stations that we will hear from in real time but eventually the Monthly Bulletin may reveal a better answer as they collect climate station data (expect that in 7-8 months).

From what I recall of the radar there likely wasn't any huge maximum that was much higher than the 30 mm amounts mentioned, possibly 40 mm, it was not the sort of radar presentation that would suggest huge variations across Mayo and Sligo, but let's say 50 mm would be the absolute highest potential amount. From what I recall most of this fell in 3-4 hours from about 0300h to 1100h across the zone, with lighter amounts coming much later in the day.

(added later) Also two boards weather reports are available. One from your southeast reports 29 mm and one from your northwest (Renvyle) reports 38 mm. The maximum hourly rate reported there was
10 mm around 0400h.
Meanwhile, total rainfalls 18th-19th across the south appear to be in the 20-25 mm range so not as impressive as the 17th. Today may reveal a new contender somewhere.

John mac · 21-08-2016 10:09am

Thanks
should have put in coordinates (53.9225691,-9.1297566 )

I know there is some station there as MT says its prob a climatic one .
It reported the -18 we got in 2010 ,
must be over 40mm for 5 hours or so .

the radar didnt look that omnious (i was in Dublin,so getting reports from home ) it must have stopped over for a long period, .

sryanbruen · 21-08-2016 11:00am

Just thought it'd be worth the mention here that Mullingar recorded 46.8mm yesterday (20th).

pauldry · 21-08-2016 1:51pm

Well done Mullingar

What a washout of an August

Re Straid Its hard accurately record rainfall in the West since no radar in w and nw means met eireann regularly need to change their forecasts when they realise its drizzling up here

sryanbruen · 21-08-2016 1:53pm

pauldry wrote: »

Well done Mullingar

What a washout of an August

Re Straid Its hard accurately record rainfall in the West since no radar in w and nw means met eireann regularly need to change their forecasts when they realise its drizzling up here

Ay I recorded 86.4mm on the 2nd in 2014, that was a washout of an August.

M.T. Cranium · 21-08-2016 11:06pm

Since the bonus was more or less settled on the first, what I will do to make it a bit more interesting is to give 7/10 for amounts and 3/10 for locations, this won't change the perfect score of anyone who called it, but it will make for a 2 pt location award for yesterday and 1 pt for the 17th as earlier discussed. For yesterday, I think anywhere within a 100 km radius of Mullingar, without looking at actual entries perhaps Mt Dillon, Dunsany, Gurteen as well as Mullingar itself.

This is assuming no other amounts intrude in the 1-2-3 finish (will require 33.2 mm or more for third).

These are of course trivial changes and as I mentioned the one person who entered late enough to know the deal is going to give back most of their bonus points in a late penalty.

If I had to guess today I would say

IMT 16.0, PRC 105, SUN 080, so if you're close to those numbers, good for you.

pauldry · 22-08-2016 1:47pm

Sun in nw so far in august well below 80percent

Prob 50percent

IMT high though

Warmest wet august in quite a while

Yesterday it was 19c at 9pm even though raining

M.T. Cranium · 22-08-2016 4:16pm

After three weeks ...

IMT now at 15.8 after a warm third week (16.6, 1.4 above normal for the period).

PRC has edged above normal (102% now) after a wet outcome of 179% of normal in week three.

SUN remains deficient at 73% with the third week a rather anemic 87%.

MAX 25.5 and MIN 6.4 to date.

pauldry · 25-08-2016 9:48am

Worth mentioning Markree 5.6c yesterday

M.T. Cranium · 29-08-2016 4:32pm

After four weeks ...

IMT at 15.6 with the fourth week at 15.2 (0.3 above the normal for the period).

PRC has dropped back to 94% as the week averaged only 70% (above normal in the southwest but rather dry elsewhere).

SUN has recovered to 91% as the week had an impressive average of 145%.

Will be checking today's mins as I saw 5 C at Mountdillon while doing the morning forecast, otherwise the max and min remain as reported earlier.

As I may be taking off before end of month for some holiday time, internet access may be limited for me, and I may post a provisional scoring table that gets to final stage at some unknown point in early September. The annual update is likely to come around the 7th or 8th of September. The September forecast thread is posted and pinned.

M.T. Cranium · 30-08-2016 4:05pm

New MIN of 4.5 reported on 29th for Mountdillon.

This is a highly approximate provisional scoring report that I will eventually change to a final scoring report. This may be later than usual as I am now heading out for a week ...

Provisional scoring

FORECASTER ________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__ Max rain, loc'n

Estimated values _____15.5_25.5_4.5_090_090___ 65 Sherkin ___ TOTAL

Jpmarn _____________17 _ 00 _ 03 _ 08 _ 04 ___ 4 + 1 _______ 37
Dacogawa ___ (-6) ___ 22 _ 04 _ 14 _ 05 _ 10 ___ 7 + 3 __ 65-6=59
Tae laidir ___________ 22 _ 17 _ 09 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 6 + 1 _______ 72
M.T. Cranium ________24 _ 00 _ 00 _ 12 _ 09 ___ 5 + 0 _______ 50
sryanbruen _________ 24 _ 15 _ 16 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 3 + 3 _______ 76
Rikand ____ (-1) _____25 _ 05 _ 10 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 3 + 2 __ 61-1=60
waterways __________24 _ 02 _ 00 _ 15 _ 05 ___ 4 + 1 _______ 51
Sunflower3 _________ 24 _ 10 _ 15 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 1 + 3 _______ 73
JD________ (-3) _____23 _ 00 _ 04 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 5 + 3 __ 51-3=48
DOCARCH __________ 23 _ 00 _ 17 _ 08 _ 10 ___ 1 + 3 _______ 62
Joe Public __________ 23 _ 06 _ 00 _ 05 _ 10 ___ 2 + 3 _______ 49

Con Sensus _________23 _ 10 _ 13 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 3 + 3 _______ 68

Bsal________________23 _ 15 _ 12 _ 03 _ 08 ___ 6 + 1 _______ 68
Kindred Spirit ________22 _ 13 _ 15 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 5 + 3 _______ 78
pauldry_____________ 22 _ 18 _ 05 _ 03 _ 08 ___ 7 + 3 _______ 66
Dasa29 _____________22 _ 15 _ 14 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 2 + 3 _______ 76

Norma L ____________21 _ 05 _ 00 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 7 + 3 _______ 52

Lumi ___ (-2) ________21 _ 08 _ 20 _ 07 _ 10 ___ 7 + 3 __ 76-2=74
200motels ___________21 _ 08 _ 05 _ 06 _ 08 ___ 4 + 3 _______ 55
mickger844posts ______21 _ 15 _ 06 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 2 + 3 _______ 62
john mac ____________20 _ 15 _ 06 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 6 + 3 _______ 66
MrSkinner ___________ 19 _ 11 _ 13 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 6 + 3 _______ 70
Rameire _____________17 _ 11 _ 09 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 3 + 1 _______ 59
___________________________________________________________

** Actual forecasts **

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max rain, loc'n (date)

Estimated values _____ 15.5 _ 25.5 _ 4.5 _

Jpmarn _____________16.3 _ 28.7 _ 6.2 _ 110 _ 120 ___ 28.2 Belmullet (6th)
Dacogawa ___ (-6) ___ 15.8 _ 27.1 _ 3.9 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 70.0 Sherkin (15th)
Tae laidir ___________ 15.8 _ 25.8 _ 3.4 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 33.0 Knock
M.T. Cranium ________15.6 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 098 _ 095 ___ 30.0 Gurteen (10th)
sryanbruen __________15.6 _ 26.0 _ 4.9 _ 110 _ 104 ___ 25.2 Valentia (6th)
Rikand ____ (-1) _____ 15.5 _ 27.0 _ 3.5 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 25.0 Mt Dillon (1st)
waterways __________ 15.4 _ 27.3 _ 2.3 _ 091 _ 116 ___ 28.0 Knock
Sunflower3 __________15.4 _ 26.5 _ 4.0 _ 101 _ 095 ___ 14.2 Valentia (18th)
JD________ (-3) _____ 15.3 _ 27.9 _ 2.9 _ 115 _ 093 ___ 29.9 Sherkin
DOCARCH ___________15.3 _ 27.7 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 16.2 Sherkin (10th)
Joe Public ___________ 15.3 _ 26.9 _ 1.9 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 22.9 Roches Point

Con Sensus __________15.3 _ 26.5 _ 3.8 _ 110 _ 098 ___ 25.2 Sherkin*

Bsal________________ 15.3 _ 25.0 _ 3.7 _ 125 _ 099 ___ 33.0 Knock (25th)
Kindred Spirit ________ 15.2 _ 26.2 _ 4.0 _ 085 _ 105 ___ 30.0 Valentia
pauldry______________15.2 _ 25.7 _ 3.0 _ 127 _ 101 ___ 48.2 Roches Pt (31st)
Dasa29 _____________ 15.2 _ 25.0 _ 3.9 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 22.5 Valentia (16th)

Norma L _____________15.1 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 40.0

Lumi ___ (-2) ________ 15.1 _ 26.7 _ 4.5 _ 113 _ 090 ___ 36.0 Sherkin (20th)
200motels ___________ 15.1 _ 26.7 _ 3.0 _ 117 _ 098 ___ 28.2 Roches Pt (7th)
mickger844posts ______ 15.1 _ 25.0 _ 5.9 _ 110 _ 104 ___ 20.2 Valentia (26th)
john mac ____________ 15.0 _ 26.0 _ 5.9 _ 110 _ 098 ___ 32.2 Sherkin (10th)
MrSkinner ____________14.9 _ 24.6 _ 3.8 _ 100 _ 111 ___ 32.0 Valentia
Rameire _____________ 14.7 _ 24.6 _ 3.4 _ 104 _ 098 ___ 25.2 Newport
___________________________________________________________

Joe Public · 30-08-2016 11:00pm

I often wonder why PRC & SUN don't score the same? i.e. PRC is max 15 points and SUN is max 10 points.

Tae laidir · 31-08-2016 11:10pm

Norma L 110 PRC ??

Rikand · 01-09-2016 6:52am

Tae laidir wrote: »

Norma L 110 PRC ??

For ireland, that seems about standard

Jpmarn · 01-09-2016 12:38pm

PRC at Shannon Airport was around 130% of normal or 107 mm. IMT 16.1C Max 25c min 9c.

August 2016 Boards forecast contest

Comments