September 2015 Boards forecast contest

MTC ______ 11.9 __ 21.1 __ --3.5 ___ 055 __ 090 __ 14.2 __ 1.0 mm

Good luck everyone. Table of forecasts may be posted on Wednesday perhaps.

Table of forecasts for September 2015


FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ 20th max, rain

Jpmarn____________ 13.8 _ 24.8 __ 0.4 _ 075 _ 125 ____ 18.5 __ 0.2
MrSkinner__________ 13.5 _ 23.4 __ 0.4_ 090 _ 120 ____ 16.9 __ 5.0
Dacogawa _________ 13.4 _ 22.0 _ -0.7 _ 105 _ 120 ____ 12.4 __22.0
JD _______________ 13.3 _ 23.6 _ -1.8 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 17.2 __ 0.0
Harps _____________13.1 _ 22.9 _ -1.2 _ 075 _ 120 ____ 16.8 __ 1.0
waterways _________ 13.1 _ 22.0 _ -2.0 _ 083 _ 120 ____ 13.0 __ 4.0
Bsal ______________ 13.1 _ 21.4 _ -0.5 _ 095 _ 106 ____ 13.2 __ 0.5
Lumi ______________13.1 _ 20.9 _ -2.8 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 15.9 __ 2.4
mickger844posts ____ 13.1 _ 20.1 _ -1.1 _ 082 _ 112 ____ 16.1 __ 0.0
john mac __________ 13.0 _ 22.3 _ -1.5 _ 098 _ 110 ____ 15.2 __ 2.2
Rikand ____________ 13.0 _ 21.5 _ -1.5 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 17.5 __ 0.0
omicron ___________ 13.0 _ 21.0 __ 1.5 _ 095 _ 105 ____ 17.5 __ 0.0

Con Sensus ________ 13.0 _ 22.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 16.8 __ 0.5

Rameire ___________13.0 _ 20.6 __ 0.2 _ 078 _ 093 ____ 15.0 __ Tr
200motels _________ 13.0 _ 20.3 _ -0.8 _ 090 _ 109 ____ 16.9 __ 0.0
Joe Public __________12.9 _ 22.9 _ -2.9 _ 085 _ 129 ____ 16.9 __ 0.0
Schadenfreudia _____ 12.9 _ 22.1 __ 2.8 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 16.7 __ 0.0
pauldry ___________ 12.8 _ 21.8 _ -0.7 _ 080 _ 112 ____ 16.1 __ 9.4
DOCARCH _________ 12.8 _ 20.8 _ -0.8 _ 092 _ 105 ____ 16.7 __ 0.0
Sunflower3 ________ 12.6 _ 21.6 _ -1.1 _ 090 _ 118 ____ 17.5 __ 0.0
Tae laidir __________ 12.5 _ 18.9 _ -2.5 _ 070 _ 117 ____ 14.7 __ 1.0
lostinashford _______ 12.1 _ 22.3 _ -0.8 _ 094 _ 109 ____ 17.2 __ 1.0
dasa29 ____________12.0 _ 22.5 _ -1.0 _ 105 _ 090 ____ 17.5 __ 2.0
M.T. Cranium _______11.9 _ 21.1 _ -3.5 _ 055 _ 090 ____ 14.2 __ 1.0

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Con Sensus is 12th ranked value (median) and if KS straggles in that will change to mean of 12th and 13th ranked, but that cannot change the IMT consensus and I think most of the others would stay very similar. Trace amount of rain will be scored as 0.0 but gets bragging rights if it verifies.

Our group estimate seems to be for a rather normal month once the obviously cool first week comes and goes, otherwise the IMT values would be lower because they will be starting from about 1.5 below normal at least (the group average is only 0.3 below normal). There is a trend towards dry and sunny as opposed to wet and cloudy but some are saying dry and cloudy. As for the bonus, there's quite a spread in forecasts there.

After seven days ...

IMT only 11.7 C which was 2.5 below the normal average for the five stations used.
(note, would be 12.0 C for the eleven precip stations that include the five temperature sites, and that would be 2.2 below the normal average for all of them, so in both cases that normal is 14.2).

PRC was a mere 8% of normal with some of the more northerly sites breaking 10% and the south almost bone dry.

SUN managed a rather weak 79% average.

I expect we might have some candidates for the MAX after today, and so far the lowest MIN that I noticed was 4.0 but if clear skies remain overnight maybe an eastern cold spot will beat that for now. Last week of September usually provides that statistic anyway.

My forecast for these stats after 14 days would be

13.0 _ 21.0 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 075

so will check that out later.

Note: will discuss with participants in December, but I am thinking of making the temperature (IMT) base similar to the precip base, at least the current eleven stations and possibly as many as 14, with Athenry, Gurteen and either Finner or Knock added to provide better coverage. Some test cases that I have run show little variation over long periods, if more stations are used, so long as we don't include too many coastal stations, if I just went with all stations available it would develop a coastal bias and within that a bit of a skew to the south coast, which would be unrepresentative.

Also it will be possible to expand the sunshine data base from six to eight, the two added ones being Knock and Malin Head which you may suppose are cloudier locations but as we're dealing with percentages of normal that really isn't a big concern.

The MAX and MIN already encompass the entire met.ie roster of reporting sites on the daily reports and in the Monthly Summary except for those that you don't hear about until the climate stations are added into the Monthly Bulletin months after the fact. Back in the hot month of July 2013 I believe there was eventually a report of a MAX about a degree higher than what we had for the contest, many other times I suspect there might be lower MINs at some of these sites, but as contestants know what they are dealing with, they probably factor that into predictions.

Update for the second week (8th to 14th) ... almost missed my chance to review the Ag Report but it is still on the right page for me.

IMT has risen to 12.6 for the five stations after the week managed a fairly normal value of 13.3 C. For the full eleven stations, the average is now 12.7 (the week 13.4).

The very wet conditions (in the west mainly) boosted the month to 114% and the second week averaged 220%. Worth noting that Casement is still only running at 40% of normal (and 20% of the full monthly amount).

Sunshine continues to be rather sparse, the week at 85% brings a slight rise to 82% for the month.

MAX 20.3 so far, and MIN will be reset overnight, two stations were at 3 C at 0400h and as Pauldry noted we could see a lower value by morning.