Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Summer/Autumn/Winter 2014-15

A few days away but Saturday is looking interesting. Plume setup could see some severe storms over in the eastern UK with a lesser risk here but still a decent chance of some sparks.

Several rumbles now here (near Shankill), rain getting heavier.

No more sparks since the last post - just heavy rain. Looks like there might be another cell building behind the one over S Dublin.

Just had a short but intense hail shower (West Laois), fairly ominous looking returns on the rainfall radar over Kilkenny moving north-eastwards.

Going by the radar returns, most likely a fully fledged tornado. The net weather radar was showing colours that I have never seen in this country at the north and north west end of Lough Neagh....almost to the top of the scale and it would indicate some areas experiencing rainfall rates of up to 200mm/hr between around 19:15 - 19:30 :eek:

I seen it, I seen it!
I was looking from Pomeroy in Tyrone towards the North West top of the Lough this evening and got a couple of pics. The clouds looked nasty!

snowstreams wrote: »

On that map it still looks like the west midlands of Ireland could get a few thunderstorms?
I knew there was a chance when I saw Siobhan Ryan mention humid weather coming up from Biscay. Pity were too far west though.

A few thundery showers look possible in the midlands and west, but if things do kick off the real action will be across the water.

what is the sign when we see a very red sky,

goat2 wrote: »

what is the sign when we see a very red sky,

Red sky at night, shepherds pie 😊

Looking a little better for thundery prospects here tomorrow, midlands to northern areas looking best at the moment.



Here's the plume pushing up tonight/early tomorow which should make things feel a bit humid.



Could be some real downpours in places regardless anyway.

Widespread thunderstorms possible for midlands , east and north tomorrow . ( The south seeing things kick off but head north )



Conditions.

• Strong cape and LI values . With decent diurnal heating , 1200+ j/kg of cape is possible
• Cold pool of roughly -20C at 500hpa with surface temp/ dewpoint spread of 20/15c will lead to strong lapse rates.
• Jet streak ejecting over the country early morning , into the afternoon leading to strong deep layer shear . The timing not perfectly coinciding with maximum diurnal heating but with over 50knts some supercell characteristics are possible . Noting on hi res some decent vorticity early on , a funnel , waterspout is not out of the question ( bray flashback anyone ? )

So id expect to see some isolated thunderstorms early morning and then increasing throughout the day , some severe ones , with hail and gusty winds and CG lightning possible before evening . Concerned though about the amount of cloud cover possible from early morning activity in the east.


MCS ( mesoscale convective system ) for England , kicking off near London and moving north west. Would love to be over there .







My Estofex guess for tomorrow would be a level one for Ireland. ( CG lightning , hail and weak tornado possible )

England - High end level two . ( large hail , severe gusts , widespread CG lightning and tornadoes possible.

:cool:

Driving Dublin to Cork in the morning, can't believe I'll actually be driving away from the action!!:mad: