Football ranking table

blowitupref · 05-06-2015 6:21pm

How teams promoted to Div one have fared in the championship the last six years.

2014
Div 2 final Monaghan winners Donegal runners up
Championship Donegal AI runners up, Monaghan AI quarter final lost to Dublin

2013
Div 2 final Derry winners Westmeath runners up
Championship Derry Round 3 qualifer defeat to Cavan,Westmeath Round 1 Qualifer defeat to Fermanagh

2012
Div 2 final Kildare winners Tyrone runners up
Championship Kildare AI quarter final defeat to Cork, Tyrone round 3 qualifer defeat to Kerry

2011
Div 2 final Donegal winners, runners up Laois
Championship Donegal Ulster winners AI semi final defeat to Dublin, Laois Round 2 qualifer defeat to Kildare

2010
Div 2 final Armagh winners runners up Down
Championship Armagh round 3 qualifer defeat to Dublin, Down AI final defeat to Cork

2009
Div 2 final Cork winners, Monaghan runners up
Championship Cork Munster winners AI final lost to Kerry , Monaghan Round 2 qualifer defeat to Derry

Sheldons Brain · 06-06-2015 10:20pm

Laois (81.92) vs Kildare (81.32)
Effectively nothing between these teams in terms of rating points, and holding the game at a neutral venue does not swing the predicted result one way or another. The teams played a close competitive match in the league with a late Kildare goal paving the way for victory. Kildare appear to have lost some players in recent times, although the prediction model can't pick this up (so I've a sneaky feeling for a Laois win, although I have been known to be biased, especially when dealing with our dear neighbours). The prediction model (non-biased) says: Draw

You may not be personally happy at the outcome, laoisman11, but the system works.

laoisman11 · 07-06-2015 12:46pm

Sheldons Brain wrote: »

You may not be personally happy at the outcome, laoisman11, but the system works.

Damn you system

laoisman11 · 10-06-2015 12:49pm

The 2 games panned out much as expected this weekend....

Laois and Kildare exchange 0.12 rating points following their draw in Tullamore
Derry gain 1.21 rating points and jump 3 places in the rankings to 7th thanks to their one point win over Down. Down, meanwhile, drop just below Laois.

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating points|Δ Rating
1| steady| Dublin | 104.31 | 0.00
2| steady| Kerry | 99.47 | 0.00
3| steady| Donegal | 98.56 | 0.00
4| steady| Cork | 96.91 | 0.00
5| steady| Mayo | 96.64 | 0.00
6| steady| Monaghan | 96.13 | 0.00
7| increase| Derry | 90.16 | 1.21
8| decrease| Armagh | 89.28 | 0.00
9| decrease| Meath | 89.27 | 0.00
10| decrease| Tyrone | 89.10 | 0.00
11| steady| Roscommon | 87.34 | 0.00
12| steady| Galway | 86.02 | 0.00
13| increase| Laois | 81.80 | -0.12
14| decrease| Down | 81.77 | -1.21
15| steady| Kildare | 81.44 | 0.12
16| steady| Tipperary | 81.21 | 0.00
17| steady| Cavan | 79.72 | 0.00
18| steady| Fermanagh | 79.18 | 0.00
19| steady| Westmeath | 78.29 | 0.00
20| steady| Longford | 77.46 | 0.00
21| steady| Sligo | 77.02 | 0.00
22| steady| Clare | 76.95 | 0.00
23| steady| Wexford | 73.42 | 0.00
24| steady| Limerick | 72.30 | 0.00
25| steady| Offaly | 70.34 | 0.00
26| steady| Leitrim | 68.75 | 0.00
27| steady| Antrim | 68.24 | 0.00
28| steady| Louth | 66.79 | 0.00
29| steady| Wicklow | 61.29 | 0.00
30| steady| London | 61.07 | 0.00
31| steady| Carlow | 60.92 | 0.00
32| steady| Waterford | 58.02 | 0.00
33| steady| New York | 57.17 | 0.00

Full explanation of ranking system here.

laoisman11 · 12-06-2015 3:09pm

It certainly feels like the SFC is really kicking off this weekend with 7 games to be played and the first appearance of 5 of the current top 10......

Laois (81.80) vs Kildare (81.44)
Nothing between these teams last week and this game is likely to be very close again. Whichever team learns most from last weeks mistakes (and there were plenty on both sides) will come up trumps. The prediction model is going to have to be wrong at some stage, because at the moment, it is again predicting: Draw

Armagh (89.28, at home) vs Donegal (98.56)
Will Armagh have picked up some "bad habits" (as K. McGeeney put it) after their quick visit to Div 3 or can they really put it up to Donegal? It will be interesting to see how Armagh have been moulded in recent months and how they cope with Donegal's intensity. Home advantage for Armagh adds an extra spice, the model says: Donegal by 2

Tipperary (81.21, at home) vs Kerry (99.47)
Tipperary are coming, of that there is no doubt, but a challenge to the All-Ireland champions may be too early in their development. Kerry roll out some of the big guns while keeping others in storage. Kerry by 6

Cork (96.91, at home) vs Clare (76.95)
Will the real Cork please stand up? Cork still remain in the top 5 teams in the country, and as such, should be serious contenders for Sam. Yet everyone has written them off. Clare struggled against Limerick and it is very hard to see them compete well with a team which (should) have something to prove to themselves. Cork by 10

Meath (89.27, at home) vs Wicklow (61.29)
Meath start no fewer than 6 debutantes, and how that will affect the outcome of this game is very hard to gauge. They may have been in trouble against some of the more seasoned Leinster competitors, but against Wicklow, especially at home, there can only be one winner. Meath by 11

Westmeath (78.29, at home) vs Wexford(73.42)
Westmeath had a solid early win over Louth while Wexford make their entry after a poor league. Both were relegated, but Westmeath remain a division above Wexford. Here, however, Westmeath with home advantage should just about swing it. Westmeath by 3

Galway (86.02, at home) vs Mayo (96.64)
The loss of Shane Walsh is a major set-back for Galway, they really needed all their stars, and everyone playing to optimum to mount a challenge to the holders of the last 4 Connacht championships. Mayo under new management will be keen to continue winning ways. But only just. Mayo by 2

dr.kenneth noisewater · 13-06-2015 7:05am

Westmeath play Wexford!!

laoisman11 · 14-06-2015 1:51pm

dr.kenneth noisewater wrote: »

Westmeath play Wexford!!

Major Homer Simpson moment there.......:o

Mr. Incognito · 14-06-2015 5:52pm

Kerry by six. Good call.

laoisman11 · 14-06-2015 6:06pm

Quite a few changes to the rankings following the 7 games this weekend......

Kildare's bonus point win over Laois gains them 4.61 rating points and they jump 3 places in the rankings. Laois, meanwhile, drop to 20th, their worst ranking since September 2010.
Donegal gain 2.62 rating points and leapfrog Kerry into 2nd position
Mayo also move up one place after their 4 point win over arch-rivals Galway
Westmeath advance 3 places to 16th (their highest position since June 2013) while Longford Wexford enter the bottom 10
The Cork-Clare, Tipperary-Kerry nor Meath-Wicklow games cause an exchange of rating points as there were more than 15 rating points difference between the teams

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating points|Δ Rating
1| steady| Dublin | 104.31 | 0.00
2| increase| Donegal | 101.18 | 2.62
3| decrease| Kerry | 99.47 | 0.00
4| increase| Mayo | 98.12 | 1.48
5| decrease| Cork | 96.91 | 0.00
6| steady| Monaghan | 96.13 | 0.00
7| steady| Derry | 90.16 | 0.00
8| increase| Meath | 89.27 | 0.00
9| increase| Tyrone | 89.10 | 0.00
10| increase| Roscommon | 87.34 | 0.00
11| decrease| Armagh | 86.66 | -2.62
12| increase| Kildare | 86.05 | 4.61
13| decrease| Galway | 84.54 | -1.48
14| steady| Down | 81.77 | 0.00
15| increase| Tipperary | 81.21 | 0.00
16| increase| Westmeath | 80.43 | 2.14
17| steady| Cavan | 79.72 | 0.00
18| steady| Fermanagh | 79.18 | 0.00
19| increase| Longford | 77.46 | 0.00
20| decrease| Laois | 77.19 | -4.61
21| steady| Sligo | 77.02 | 0.00
22| steady| Clare | 76.95 | 0.00
23| increase| Limerick | 72.30 | 0.00
24| decrease| Wexford | 71.28 | -2.14
25| steady| Offaly | 70.34 | 0.00
26| steady| Leitrim | 68.75 | 0.00
27| steady| Antrim | 68.24 | 0.00
28| steady| Louth | 66.79 | 0.00
29| steady| Wicklow | 61.29 | 0.00
30| steady| London | 61.07 | 0.00
31| steady| Carlow | 60.92 | 0.00
32| steady| Waterford | 58.02 | 0.00
33| steady| New York | 57.17 | 0.00

Full explanation of ranking system here.

laoisman11 · 19-06-2015 10:09am

Six more games to look forward to this weekend; could there be a shock in store in this to-date season of normality ? Please ??

London (61.07, at home) vs Cavan (79.72)
London battled bravely but in futility against Roscommon, and while Cavan might not consider themselves as advanced as the Rossies, they should still have too much in reserve to overcome the Exiles. Cavan by 11

Waterford (58.02, at home) vs Offaly (70.34)
Waterford were completely outclassed by Tipperary in their opener and unfortunately don't appear to have the resources to compete at this level. Offaly traditionally perform extremely poorly in the qualifiers although they did seem to be particularly disappointed to lose out to Longford, especially after their Div 4 victory over the same opposition. The Faithful to remain in the championship for now. Offaly by 6

Laois (77.19, at home) vs Antrim (68.24)
Laois's implosion in the 6 minutes after half-time of the Kildare replay is rewarded with the visit of Antrim to Portlaoise. Antrim will be ultra-defensive but the return from their attack against Fermanagh (2 points from play) left a lot to be desired. If Laois are in the right frame of mind, they should overcome this challenge and try to build some momentum. If they are still nursing a hangover and tiredness from the last 2 weekends, this could be closer than most people think. Laois by 4

Longford (77.46, at home) vs Carlow (60.92)
Hard to look past Longford for this game. They disposed of Offaly and went head to head with the Dubs with a predictable outcome. A similar style of play here could see them winning by the same margin as what they conceded to Dublin. The prediction model says: Longford by 7 (although I think it could be closer to 15)

Sligo (77.02, at home) vs Roscommon (87.34)
It's slightly difficult to gauge the form of the last team to enter the championship as it's been a while since their last competitive outing. They have 4 debutantes for this game, and have also dropped Coen from the panel for "disciplinary reasons". Roscommon don't appear to have such distractions and should make it though to challenge Mayo in the final. Roscommon by 3

Monaghan (96.13) vs Fermanagh (79.18)
Monaghan just about snook past Cavan and I have the feeling that that close game will bring them on a lot. Fermanagh made hard work in disposing of Ulster's weakest team (Antrim) and may the find the going extremely tough here. Monaghan by 5

zombieHanalei · 19-06-2015 10:22am

laoisman11 wrote: »

Six more games to look forward to this weekend; could there be a shock in store in this to-date season of normality ? Please

Looking at those games I've a feeling it will be a good weekend for your prediction model! Might even make for a good accumulator??

laoisman11 · 20-06-2015 2:51pm

Boom__Boom wrote: »

The record of teams relegated from Division 1 in the same year's championship has been abysmal, while teams who have gotten promoted from Division 2 generally have a very decent record in the same year's championship.

I've had a bit of time to look at this.......

I've tried to make the comparison between the championship fate of teams relegated from/promoted to the same division (i.e. compare teams relegated from and promoted to Div1, and so on for the other 2 divisions, for the last 4 years). Rather than look at who they played, I've tried to look at it quantitatively in terms of change in rating points. Now, changes in rating points can be very much linked to which teams you get drawn to play against, but I'm hoping that a trend would appear over time....

So this is what the output looks like:

Change in rating points subsequent to promotion/relegation

The red dots are the averages, the black lines the median and all points are plotted.

A cursory look at this would indicate that, for 3 of the 4 years examined, there was little if any difference in the change in rating points following either promotion or relegation. In 2012, the relegated teams appeared to have had much better championship campaigns than the promoted teams.

My take on this is that based on the huge variation in changes in rating points, and the small overall average differences between the promoted and relegated teams, it cannot be said that promoted teams do better than relegated teams. Of course, the fact that I've only looked at 4 years has to be taken into account.

Full data below.........

Year|Rel/Prom|Division 1/2|ΔRating|Division 2/3 |ΔRating|Division 3/4 |ΔRating| Overall average
2014|Rel|Kildare|1,47|Armagh|15,23|Longford|3,5|2,22
||Westmeath|-4,16|Louth|0,96|Offaly|-4,67|
||Average|-2,69||7,14||0,59|
|Prom|Donegal|13,64|Cavan|-10,25|Tipperary|6,52|2,06
||Monaghan|-0,77|Roscommon|1,56|Clare|2,59|
||Average|6,44||-4,35||4,56|
Year|Rel/Prom|Division 1/2|ΔRating|Division 2/3 |ΔRating|Division 3/4 |ΔRating| Overall average
2013|Rel|Donegal|-7,9|Wexford|2,36|Antrim|-1,79|-1,08
||Down|-1,97|Longford|1,56|Wicklow|0,64|
||Average|-4,94||1,96||-0,58|
|Prom|Derry|-3,86|Monaghan|10,91|Limerick|-7,79|-0,40
||Westmeath|-5,45|Meath|3,81|Offaly|0|
||Average|-4,67||7,36||-7,79|
Year|Rel/Prom|Division 1/2|ΔRating|Division 2/3 |ΔRating|Division 3/4 |ΔRating| Overall average
2012|Rel|Laois|4,34|Meath|6,95|Tipperary|8,69|1,85
||Armagh|-6,54|Monaghan|-0,16|Offaly|-2,17|
||Average|-1,10||3,40||3,26|
|Prom|Tyrone|-1,22|Longford|-10,10|Fermanagh|-5,80|-4,32
||Kildare|-2,84|Wexford|-0,14|Wicklow|-5,79|
||Average|-2,03||-5,12||-5,8|
Year|Rel/Prom|Division 1/2|ΔRating|Division 2/3 |ΔRating|Division 3/4 |ΔRating| Overall average
2011|Rel|Monaghan|-8,65|Sligo|-9,16|Limerick|8,04|-1,21
||Galway|-4,76|Antrim|4,63|Waterford|2,65|
||Average|-6,71||-2,27||5,35|
|Prom|Donegal|9,13|Westmeath|-6,55|Roscommon|1,70|-0,59
||Laois|-1,84|Louth|-8,59|Longford|2,59|
||Average|3,65||-7,57||2,15|

laoisman11 · 22-06-2015 6:07pm

I was hoping for some shocks to liven up the championship, but that was not exactly what I had in mind........

Antrim gain 5.39 rating points and jump 5 places in the rankings following their excellent victory over Laois in O'Moore Park. Laois drop to 25th position, their worst placement since May 1988
Sligo increase their rating by 4.46 points and climb 6 places; Roscommon fall 3 places and hope for a kind draw in the qualifiers to allow them to re-group
Offaly's big win over Waterford consign Waterford to the unenviable position of last in the rankings
Wins for Cavan, Longford and Monaghan over London, Carlow and Fermanagh, respectively, did not result in any rating points exchanged

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating points|Δ Rating
1| steady| Dublin | 104.31 | 0.00
2| steady| Donegal | 101.18 | 0.00
3| steady| Kerry | 99.47 | 0.00
4| steady| Mayo | 98.12 | 0.00
5| steady| Cork | 96.91 | 0.00
6| steady| Monaghan | 96.13 | 0.00
7| steady| Derry | 90.16 | 0.00
8| steady| Meath | 89.27 | 0.00
9| steady| Tyrone | 89.10 | 0.00
10| increase| Armagh | 86.66 | 0.00
11| increase| Kildare | 86.05 | 0.00
12| increase| Galway | 84.54 | 0.00
13| decrease| Roscommon | 82.88 | -4.46
14| steady| Down | 81.77 | 0.00
15| increase| Sligo | 81.48 | 4.46
16| decrease| Tipperary | 81.21 | 0.00
17| decrease| Westmeath | 80.43 | 0.00
18| decrease| Cavan | 79.72 | 0.00
19| decrease| Fermanagh | 79.18 | 0.00
20| decrease| Longford | 77.46 | 0.00
21| increase| Clare | 76.95 | 0.00
22| increase| Antrim | 73.63 | 5.39
23| steady| Limerick | 72.30 | 0.00
24| increase| Offaly | 72.04 | 1.70
25| decrease| Laois | 71.80 | -5.39
26| decrease| Wexford | 71.28 | 0.00
27| decrease| Leitrim | 68.75 | 0.00
28| steady| Louth | 66.79 | 0.00
29| steady| Wicklow | 61.29 | 0.00
30| steady| London | 61.07 | 0.00
31| steady| Carlow | 60.92 | 0.00
32| increase| New York | 57.17 | 0.00
33| decrease| Waterford | 56.32 | -1.70

Full explanation of ranking system here.

laoisman11 · 26-06-2015 8:05am

Three provincial semi-finals and 4 qualifiers on the cards for this weekend - could there be more shocks in store after Antrim and Sligo rocked the boat last weekend ?

Armagh (86.66, at home) vs Wicklow (61.29)
Wicklow won't have fond memories of their 2013 visit to the Athletic Grounds where they lost by 2-21 to 0-02. They battled bravely against Meath in this year's Leinster SFC and should be able to put up a good showing here too. Armagh will have been disappointed with their poor display against Donegal and will see this as the perfect spring-board back into the championship, while knowing that tougher days lie ahead. Armagh by 9

Wexford (71.28, at home) vs Down (81.77)
Even with home advantage, Wexford are going to find it tough to break down a well-drilled Down side. I'm finding it hard to be optimistic of either side's chances in the next rounds of the qualifiers. Down by 4

Louth (66.79, at home) vs Leitrim (68.75)
A great chance for either of these counties to progress a bit further than normal in the qualifiers. Louth had a fairly good outing against Westmeath kicking 16 points, whereas Leitrim were frustrated by Galway's defensive system, only managing 8 points. Louth by 2

Tyrone (89.10, at home) vs Limerick (72.30)
Any chance that Limerick had here went up in smoke when Tyrone got home advantage. Tyrone have been waiting 8 (!) weeks for this game and have surely ironed out some problems and fine-tuned their system of play with a view towards a long run in the qualifiers. Tyrone by 8

Derry (90.16) vs Donegal (101.18)
Derry did just about what was needed to overcome Down whereas Donegal were fairly impressive with 3 and point wins over Tyrone and Armagh, respectively. Given the large difference in rating points (> 10) we could expect Donegal to win easily, but perhaps the prediction model is erring on the side of caution due to Derry's innate unpredictability! Donegal by 1

Meath (89.27) vs Westmeath (80.43)
Meath blew off the cobwebs and gave themselves plenty to think about in their victory over Wicklow. Westmeath, meanwhile, have come through 2 good battles over Louth and Wexford, scoring 3-14 and 1-21. Meath are really going to have to put in the work to restrict Westmeath's possession and feeding of the forwards lines, otherwise the result will be a lot closer than what is predicted. Meath by 5

Dublin (104.31, at home) vs Kildare (86.05)
A huge gulf in rating points (>21 taking home advantage into account) but this game will be tighter than that. Dublin remained in the comfort zone racking up 4-25 against Longford, but Kildare will offer a much stiffer test. The games against Laois (well, the drawn game and the first half of the replay) will really stand to Kildare and even if they concede early, they will keep the head up and battle to the end. Nevertheless, Dublin are favourites and rightly so, although it could be tighter than the bookies predict. Dublin by 8

laoisman11 · 29-06-2015 2:59pm

More shocks this weekend with 3 teams increasing their ratings by more than 4 points !

Westmeath gain 4.77 rating points and jump 6 places to 11th after their magnificent comeback against Meath, who drop to 15th
Wexford's fully deserved win gives them 4.5 extra points and they rise 4 places to 22nd; Down, meanwhile, drop 6 places to 20th, their lowest ranking since June 2009
Louth's bonus point win over Leitrim increases their ratings by 4.19 points and they leapfrog Leitrim to attain 27th position
Donegal pick up 0.8 rating points after their hard-fought victory over Derry
The other victors of the weekend (Armagh, Tyrone and Dublin) did not pick up any extra rating points

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating points|Δ Rating
1| steady| Dublin | 104.31 | 0.00
2| steady| Donegal | 101.98 | 0.80
3| steady| Kerry | 99.47 | 0.00
4| steady| Mayo | 98.12 | 0.00
5| steady| Cork | 96.91 | 0.00
6| steady| Monaghan | 96.13 | 0.00
7| steady| Derry | 89.36 | -0.80
8| increase| Tyrone | 89.10 | 0.00
9| increase| Armagh | 86.66 | 0.00
10| increase| Kildare | 86.05 | 0.00
11| increase| Westmeath | 85.20 | 4.77
12| steady| Galway | 84.54 | 0.00
13| decrease| Meath | 84.50 | -4.77
14| decrease| Roscommon | 82.88 | 0.00
15| steady| Sligo | 81.48 | 0.00
16| steady| Tipperary | 81.21 | 0.00
17| increase| Cavan | 79.72 | 0.00
18| increase| Fermanagh | 79.18 | 0.00
19| increase| Longford | 77.46 | 0.00
20| decrease| Down | 77.27 | -4.50
21| steady| Clare | 76.95 | 0.00
22| increase| Wexford | 75.78 | 4.50
23| decrease| Antrim | 73.63 | 0.00
24| decrease| Limerick | 72.30 | 0.00
25| decrease| Offaly | 72.04 | 0.00
26| decrease| Laois | 71.80 | 0.00
27| increase| Louth | 70.98 | 4.19
28| decrease| Leitrim | 64.56 | -4.19
29| steady| Wicklow | 61.29 | 0.00
30| steady| London | 61.07 | 0.00
31| steady| Carlow | 60.92 | 0.00
32| steady| New York | 57.17 | 0.00
33| steady| Waterford | 56.32 | 0.00

Full explanation of ranking system here.

laoisman11 · 02-07-2015 8:03pm

Twelve teams will be gone from the championship by Sunday evening and the first provincial champions will be crowned......

Offaly (72.04, at home) v Kildare (86.05)
The perfect recovery program for Kildare after their hugely disappointing performance in Croke Park last weekend, or the perfect stage for Offaly to knock their neighbours our of the championship? There may be a huge gulf in rating points, but the prediction model sees this one as being very close. Kildare by 2

Clare (76.95, at home) v Longford (77.46)
Two teams with little to separate them on rating points and with similar provincial championship results - a good win over a similarly ranked team (Limerick and Offaly, respectively) and then a heavy loss to one of the powerhouses (Cork and Dublin, respectively). Longford have had the chance to get things rolling again with a good victory over what was a poor Carlow side. The prediction model is going with Clare by 1, probably down to having home advantage, but I think Longford may have enough here.

Cavan (79.72) v Roscommon (82.88)
Cavan were probably the last team Roscommon wanted to see coming out of the draw as they have become quite familiar with each other in the league over the last few years. Roscommon taught Cavan a lesson in last year's qualifiers but perhaps Cavan have the greater form here, losing to Monaghan by 1 whereas Roscommon lost out to Sligo. Home advantage for the Breffni men as well. Cavan by 1

Fermanagh (79.18) v Antrim (73.63)
What an unfair reward for Antrim, having dumped Laois of the qualifiers, they get drawn to play the team they lost to in the Ulster SFC. And they have to travel again......Can Antrim's momentum offset Fermanagh's malaise after their 10 point loss to Monaghan ? In any case, the prediction model reckon's that it will be closer than their previous meeting this year. Fermanagh by 3

Kerry (99.47, at home) v Cork (96.91)
Two easy victories in the Munster SFC didn't reveal much for either side who both believe that they will still be around in August/September. Cork did have the better league campaign but Kerry may have been suffering a post-All-Ireland hangover. It is extremely difficult to imagine Kerry allowing Cork to get one over on them in Killarney, and I've the feeling that they could put on a show here. The prediction model is more cautious: Kerry by 2

dofoul · 03-07-2015 2:15pm

Love this thread - well done.

I completely get the methodology but I find it amusing that Kildare can rise five places from the end of the League with a tanking from Dublin :-)

CrabRevolution · 03-07-2015 6:15pm

Its presumably down to how few games they play, and hence have no opportunity to drop points, but the fact NY are ranked ahead of Waterford is kind of silly. Waterford would easily beat NY every day of the week, with absolutely no exceptions.

laoisman11 · 06-07-2015 2:40pm

Only 2 counties outside of the top 18 remain in the championship, Wexford (in 20th) and Louth (in 27th). What chance that they will survive another week?

Roscommon were the big winners in terms of rating points gained this weekend (4.45) and skip up to 9th place in the rankings; Cavan fall to 21st position
Longford took 3.50 rating points from Clare and reach 18th in the rankings, their highest position since July 2012
Fermanagh's big win over Antrim gains them 1.93 rating points and an increase of 1 place in the rankings
Cork edge closer to Kerry in the rankings after the drawn game in Killarney – amazingly, only 0.34 rating points separates 3rd from 5th
Kildare got their season back on track with a narrow win over Offaly

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating points|Δ Rating
1| steady| Dublin | 104.31 | 0.00
2| steady| Donegal | 101.98 | 0.00
3| steady| Kerry | 98.36 | -1.11
4| steady| Mayo | 98.12 | 0.00
5| steady| Cork | 98.02 | 1.11
6| steady| Monaghan | 96.13 | 0.00
7| steady| Derry | 89.36 | 0.00
8| steady| Tyrone | 89.10 | 0.00
9| increase| Roscommon | 87.33 | 4.45
10| steady| Kildare | 86.85 | 0.80
11| decrease| Armagh | 86.66 | 0.00
12| decrease| Westmeath | 85.20 | 0.00
13| decrease| Galway | 84.54 | 0.00
14| decrease| Meath | 84.50 | 0.00
15| steady| Sligo | 81.48 | 0.00
16| steady| Tipperary | 81.21 | 0.00
17| increase| Fermanagh | 81.11 | 1.93
18| increase| Longford | 80.96 | 3.50
19| increase| Down | 77.27 | 0.00
20| increase| Wexford | 75.78 | 0.00
21| decrease| Cavan | 75.27 | -4.45
22| decrease| Clare | 73.45 | -3.50
23| increase| Limerick | 72.30 | 0.00
24| increase| Laois | 71.80 | 0.00
25| decrease| Antrim | 71.70 | -1.93
26| decrease| Offaly | 71.24 | -0.80
27| steady| Louth | 70.98 | 0.00
28| steady| Leitrim | 64.56 | 0.00
29| steady| Wicklow | 61.29 | 0.00
30| steady| London | 61.07 | 0.00
31| steady| Carlow | 60.92 | 0.00
32| steady| New York | 57.17 | 0.00
33| steady| Waterford | 56.32 | 0.00

laoisman11 · 09-07-2015 10:27am

Another smathering of games this weekend..........and 5 of the games will result in changes in rankings for the teams involved.

Derry (89,36, at home) vs Wexford (75,78)
Wexford can expect a much sterner test than what they faced against Down as Derry have some quality players in their side. That, along with home advantage, means that the prediction model is going for Derry by 8, but given the quality of Wexford's performance 2 weekends ago, and given Derry's erratic form, anything is possible here.

Tipperary (81,21, at home) vs Louth (70,98)
Tippeary will be hoping to get back on track against Louth and to get some more exposure in the qualifiers with the aim of development for the future. Most would see Louth as a push-over but they will feel aggrieved at having been knocked out of the Leinster championship so early and it could easily have been Louth rather than Westmeath in the Leinster final. I feel that this game will be tighter than generally expected. Tipperary by 3

Tyrone (89,10, at home) vs Meath (84,50)
Meath get a visit to Tyrone as a “reward” for their second half collapse to Westmeath. This is destined to be a serious, intense game as both sides are well aware of the opposition's reputation. Home advantage and a slighter better rating swings the decision to the O'Neill county. Tyrone by 2

Longford (80,96) vs Kildare (86,85)
Longford will have been delighted to get past Clare in Ennis last weekend, but Kildare, back on the horse after a hard-fought win over Offaly, are a different proposition. Another tight game in store. Kildare by 2

Armagh (86,66, at home) vs Galway (84,54)
An ideal draw for Armagh to see where they really are at. Armagh made tough work of Wicklow and a repeat performance would certainly seem them leaving the championship. Galway may feel that they have more to offer after their contained display against Mayo. Home advantage may be the deciding factor here again. Armagh by 1

Fermanagh (81,11, at home) vs Roscommon (87,33)
Roscommon's transport plans are well in order this year, having traveled to play London and Cavan already. Roscommon had a good win over Cavan and while Fermanagh will be a tougher opponent, they, like Cavan, are too dependant on individual genius. Roscommon's teamwork to shine through again here. Roscommon by 2

Dublin (104,30, at home) vs Westmeath (85,20)
Dublin can't be stopped they say. The bookies have this as a 15 point win for Dublin (the last time I checked) and it is hard to argue with that, based on Dublin's utter domination of Longford and Kildare. There is also the fear that big day nerves might affect the Westmeath camp. They really need a solid start here to be in with a shout in the last 15 minutes and it will be interesting to see if they can bring some of the exuberance from the Meath performance to this game. The prediction model is a bit more cautious than the general consensus. Dublin by 10

laoisman11 · 13-07-2015 10:24pm

Lots of changes to the mid-table rankings after the weekend:

Galway were the big winners in terms of rating points, gaining 4.02 and jumping 3 places to 10th, while Armagh slip back to 15th
Fermanagh move to their highest position since July 2008 after their superb comeback against Roscommon, who now lie in 13th position
Kildare move into the top 8 following their thumping of Longford
Tyrone cement their position in 7th but just 2.02 points separates them from 10th
Tipp gain a slight increase in rating points after their big win over a poor Louth team
Dublin did not gain any rating points for their Leinster final win

Teams in bold still in championship
#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating points|Δ Rating
1| steady| Dublin | 104.31 | 0.00
2| steady| Donegal | 101.98 | 0.00
3| steady| Kerry | 98.36 | 0.00
4| steady| Mayo | 98.12 | 0.00
5| steady| Cork | 98.02 | 0.00
6| steady| Monaghan | 96.13 | 0.00
7| increase| Tyrone | 90.58 | 1.48
8| increase| Kildare | 89.58 | 2.73
9| decrease| Derry | 89.36 | 0.00
10| increase| Galway | 88.56 | 4.02
11| increase| Westmeath | 85.20 | 0.00
12| increase| Fermanagh | 84.75 | 3.64
13| decrease| Roscommon | 83.69 | -3.64
14| steady| Meath | 83.02 | -1.48
15| decrease| Armagh | 82.64 | -4.02
16| steady| Tipperary | 81.74 | 0.53
17| decrease| Sligo | 81.48 | 0.00
18| steady| Longford | 78.23 | -2.73
19| steady| Down | 77.27 | 0.00
20| steady| Wexford | 75.78 | 0.00
21| steady| Cavan | 75.27 | 0.00
22| steady| Clare | 73.45 | 0.00
23| steady| Limerick | 72.30 | 0.00
24| steady| Laois | 71.80 | 0.00
25| steady| Antrim | 71.70 | 0.00
26| steady| Offaly | 71.24 | 0.00
27| steady| Louth | 70.45 | -0.53
28| steady| Leitrim | 64.56 | 0.00
29| steady| Wicklow | 61.29 | 0.00
30| steady| London | 61.07 | 0.00
31| steady| Carlow | 60.92 | 0.00
32| steady| New York | 57.17 | 0.00
33| steady| Waterford | 56.32 | 0.00

Full explanation of ranking system here.

K-9 · 16-07-2015 11:46am

I suppose the table reflects the competitiveness or not of each province. Dublin doesn't really gain anything by winning Leinster, Kerry or Cork only really gain for the actual Munster Final whereas Ulster and Connacht have a good few teams of a comparable standard.

laoisman11 · 17-07-2015 11:01pm

Three provincial crowns up for grabs this weekend, along with 2 qualifiers to reduce the number of teams left to 12.

Tipperary (81,74 , at home) vs Tyrone (90,58)
Tipp's facile victory over Louth mightn't have helped them iron out any problems, but it probably did help further increase their confidence. Home advantage is granted to them again for the visit of a Tyrone side who haven't been setting the world on fire (particularly on the score board) but still find themselves in with a great chance of progressing to August. Of course, the under 21 game will be in the minds of the Tipperary players, but hopefully that does not affect the spirit of this game. The prediction model takes Tyrone's superior rating points to say: Tyrone by 3

Galway (88,56 , at home) vs Derry (89,36)
Galway will have been delighted with their victory in the Athletic Grounds against tough opponents and will have to repeat that performance to be in with a shout here. Derry have some class operators on their side but are highly erratic, most notably then they are clear favourites. However, here they are not, and that normally swings things in their favour. The prediction model is going for a very tight affair. Draw

Kerry (98,36, at home) vs Cork (98,02)
Apparently, Kerry have named a much stronger team for the replay but the model cannot take this into account. They should, however, have learnt enough from the drawn game not to take Cork too lightly, and I fancy them to win well here. Kerry by 2

Monaghan (96,13, at home) vs Donegal (101,98)
While everyone has been closely following Donegal's progress this year, it has to be said that Monaghan are coming into this game fairly well under the radar, which I'm sure suits them perfectly. They came through the easy side of the draw, scraping by Cavan before dominating Fermanagh. Donegal have been more than clinical in their games so far and I really fancy them to win here. Home advantage for Monaghan, however, means the model is going for: Draw

Mayo (98,12) vs Sligo (81,48)
Sligo's shock win over Roscommon may have been their Connacht final, and it is difficult to see them repeat that feat here. Mayo are going for their 5th provincial in a row, and need to be aiming for late August/early September in order to build on previous work. This game is predicted to have the widest winning margin of the weekend. Mayo by 7

laoisman11 · 22-07-2015 2:32pm

Some interesting movement at the top of the table.......

Galway gain the most rating points (3,84) after their bonus point win over Derry and move up 2 places into 8th
Monaghan move into the top 3 for the first time since November 1988 following their slim victory over Donegal
Tyrone remain in 7th position, despite picking up 2,75 rating points in their big win in Thurles
Kerry creep closer to Dublin with the addition of another Munster title and 2,33 rating points
No rating points were exchanged after Mayo's huge win over Sligo in the Connacht final

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating points|Δ Rating
1| steady| Dublin | 104.31 | 0.00
2| increase| Kerry | 100.69 | 2.33
3| increase| Monaghan | 99.70 | 3.57
4| decrease| Donegal | 98.41 | -3.57
5| decrease| Mayo | 98.12 | 0.00
6| decrease| Cork | 95.69 | -2.33
7| steady| Tyrone | 93.33 | 2.75
8| increase| Galway | 92.40 | 3.84
9| decrease| Kildare | 89.58 | 0.00
10| decrease| Derry | 85.52 | -3.84
11| steady| Westmeath | 85.20 | 0.00
12| steady| Fermanagh | 84.75 | 0.00
13| steady| Roscommon | 83.69 | 0.00
14| steady| Meath | 83.02 | 0.00
15| steady| Armagh | 82.64 | 0.00
16| increase| Sligo | 81.48 | 0.00
17| decrease| Tipperary | 78.99 | -2.75
18| steady| Longford | 78.23 | 0.00
19| steady| Down | 77.27 | 0.00
20| steady| Wexford | 75.78 | 0.00
21| steady| Cavan | 75.27 | 0.00
22| steady| Clare | 73.45 | 0.00
23| steady| Limerick | 72.30 | 0.00
24| steady| Laois | 71.80 | 0.00
25| steady| Antrim | 71.70 | 0.00
26| steady| Offaly | 71.24 | 0.00
27| steady| Louth | 70.45 | 0.00
28| steady| Leitrim | 64.56 | 0.00
29| steady| Wicklow | 61.29 | 0.00
30| steady| London | 61.07 | 0.00
31| steady| Carlow | 60.92 | 0.00
32| steady| New York | 57.17 | 0.00
33| steady| Waterford | 56.32 | 0.00

Full explanation of ranking system here.

bruschi · 22-07-2015 3:02pm

It's probably somewhere in the explanation, but cant really decipher why, but why did Tyrone and Tipp have an exchange of points, and Mayo and Sligo didnt. Sligo get hammered, but actually go up a place just because Tipp lost to Tyrone.

Fireball07 · 22-07-2015 3:33pm

bruschi wrote: »

It's probably somewhere in the explanation, but cant really decipher why, but why did Tyrone and Tipp have an exchange of points, and Mayo and Sligo didnt. Sligo get hammered, but actually go up a place just because Tipp lost to Tyrone.

It's got to do with the gap of points between the teams. I think it's 15 points... a big team doesn't get any points for beating much weaker sides.

Bit harsh on Tipp maybe, they are definitely better than Sligo.

bruschi · 22-07-2015 8:18pm

Fireball07 wrote: »

It's got to do with the gap of points between the teams. I think it's 15 points... a big team doesn't get any points for beating much weaker sides.

Bit harsh on Tipp maybe, they are definitely better than Sligo.

cheers. yeah I'm sure there are a few anomalies in the system, that was just one that stuck out a bit there. In general though, its without doubt the best ranking system I have ever seen anyone try produce, whether by stats or just opinion.

homewardbound11 · 22-07-2015 10:03pm

Starting to show flaws here in ranking . Esp with Monaghan moving to 3 .
Won't read too much into this .

Probably a little harsh on that comment. Apologies . But still difficult to see Monaghan at 3 .

laoisman11 · 23-07-2015 2:45pm

homewardbound11 wrote: »

Starting to show flaws here in ranking . Esp with Monaghan moving to 3 .
Won't read too much into this .

Probably a little harsh on that comment. Apologies . But still difficult to see Monaghan at 3 .

It's all subjective at the end of the day! For me, Donegal were/are in the top 3 in the country, and for Monaghan to edge in front of them seems fair enough.

But there are anomalies such as the Tipp/Sligo one alright, although that is more to do with the fact that in the championship, most teams don't get to play many other similarly-ranked counties, compared to the league.

dcrosskid · 23-07-2015 3:13pm

laoisman11 wrote: »

It's all subjective at the end of the day! For me, Donegal were/are in the top 3 in the country, and for Monaghan to edge in front of them seems fair enough.

But there are anomalies such as the Tipp/Sligo one alright, although that is more to do with the fact that in the championship, most teams don't get to play many other similarly-ranked counties, compared to the league.

I was going to have a slight complaint but when you think about it it's as the saying goes, 2 bald men fighting over a comb. Tipp are out & I expect Sligo to follow suit against Tyrone & the 2 teams will probably revert back again. It is fairly accurate overall though. Tipp are probably one of the strongest div3 teams and that is where we are ranked.

keane2097 · 23-07-2015 3:38pm

You're always going to have a problem if you take this too seriously on a week by week basis during the Championship.

Ulster teams will naturally drift higher early doors as they have the chance to play more teams they can exchange points with at that stage.

By the time September rolls around you can look at how this has changed from the start of the year and see how reflective it is. It seems very good to me for the most part.

K-9 · 23-07-2015 9:59pm

Monaghan have the second highest win percentage next to Kerry since O'Rourke took over, some of them games were in Division 2 & 3 but they got to a Div. 1 League Semi and won 2 Ulsters. That's a serious record.

laoisman11 · 24-07-2015 5:15pm

We've been so used to having 5-6 games every weekend that this weekend feels almost pedestrian by comparison. Here's hoping that quality overcomes quantity..........

Fermanagh (84.75) vs Westmeath (85.20)
Both teams may be happy with their achievements, either in the qualifiers or the provincials, to date, but a bigger prize awaits here. Fermanagh have a "special one" in the form of Sean Quigley and they do seem to be able to exploit him fairly well. Westmeath seem more balanced and have scoring threats in Heslin and Martin. Fermanagh may have an advantage playing in an Ulster venue, but then again, if Westmeath opened up and played as they did against Meath and Louth, you'd have to fancy them. I'd find it very difficult to pick a winner between these 2, and as the rating points are very similar, the prediction model is going for: Draw.

Cork (95.69) vs Kildare (89.58)
Another difficult one to predict. Cork looked quite poor in the Munster final replay and should provide stiffer resistance in (hopefully) better weather. Kildare have, it has to be said, arrived at this juncture without a serious challenge - Laois (albeit after a replay but in reality how good were Laois), Offaly (ok, a close game, but KE were suffering a major hangover) and Longford were dismissed. The major stain on the All-White psyche has to be the mauling from the Dubs, where Kildare didn't appear to possess either plan or passion. So, which team is it to be? The team which finished top of the table in Division 1 of the league, or the team which finished bottom of Division 2? The prediction model is going with: Cork by 3

blowitupref · 25-07-2015 3:12am

laoisman11 without the scoring threat of Heslin (out injured) would that tip the balance in favour of Fermanagh?

CrabRevolution · 25-07-2015 1:45pm

In real terms it would give Fermanagh an advantage, but the system doesn't take injured/missing players into account.

laoisman11 · 28-07-2015 9:49am

Just 2 games this weekend, and Kildare are the big, big winners......

Kildare gain 6.33 rating points and move up to 6th place, their highest position since March 2013. Meanwhile, Cork drop back to 10th, their worst position since July 2005
Fermanagh increase their rating points by 4.64 and jump 3 places to 9th, their highest since July 2008. Westmeath fall back to 16th, following a generally successful championship

Teams in bold still in championship
#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating points| Δ Rating
1| steady| Dublin | 104.31 | 0.00
2| steady| Kerry | 100.69 | 0.00
3| steady| Monaghan | 99.70 | 0.00
4| steady| Donegal | 98.41 | 0.00
5| steady| Mayo | 98.12 | 0.00
6| increase| Kildare | 95.91 | 6.33
7| steady| Tyrone | 93.33 | 0.00
8| steady| Galway | 92.40 | 0.00
9| increase| Fermanagh | 89.39 | 4.64
10| decrease| Cork | 89.36 | -6.33
11| decrease| Derry | 85.52 | 0.00
12| increase| Roscommon | 83.69 | 0.00
13| increase| Meath | 83.02 | 0.00
14| increase| Armagh | 82.64 | 0.00
15| increase| Sligo | 81.48 | 0.00
16| decrease| Westmeath | 80.56 | -4.64
17| steady| Tipperary | 78.99 | 0.00
18| steady| Longford | 78.23 | 0.00
19| steady| Down | 77.27 | 0.00
20| steady| Wexford | 75.78 | 0.00
21| steady| Cavan | 75.27 | 0.00
22| steady| Clare | 73.45 | 0.00
23| steady| Limerick | 72.30 | 0.00
24| steady| Laois | 71.80 | 0.00
25| steady| Antrim | 71.70 | 0.00
26| steady| Offaly | 71.24 | 0.00
27| steady| Louth | 70.45 | 0.00
28| steady| Leitrim | 64.56 | 0.00
29| steady| Wicklow | 61.29 | 0.00
30| steady| London | 61.07 | 0.00
31| steady| Carlow | 60.92 | 0.00
32| steady| New York | 57.17 | 0.00
33| steady| Waterford | 56.32 | 0.00

Full explanation of ranking system here.

CrabRevolution · 30-07-2015 5:40pm

Presumably its Sligo, not Derry, that are supposed to be in bold?

laoisman11 · 31-07-2015 9:44am

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Presumably its Sligo, not Derry, that are supposed to be in bold?

Well spotted......

I changed it there for you

laoisman11 · 31-07-2015 11:31am

And soon there will be 6...........

Sligo (81,48) vs Tyrone (93,33)
Sligo were truly abysmal in face of the Mayo juggernaut in the Connacht final and surely will put in a better performance here. Tyrone, with an average score of 15.5 points per game have been making life hard for themselves this year but still can muster several serious quality footballers. Tyrone should hold the midfield advantage over Sligo and if the short kickouts don't work, then Sligo are in deep, deep trouble. I've a feeling that things may get worse for Sligo, but the model is keeping it tight: Tyrone by 5

Donegal (98,41) vs Galway (92,40)
Donegal misfired against Monaghan in the Ulster final and the 2-week break will surely have given them time to rectify some of their mistakes. They have lost Karl Lacey through injury but have quality in depth to cover. Galway, having already disposed of 2 Ulster teams (Derry and Armagh) won't fear this challenge, and the style of Galway's play, although not too easy on the eye, is quite similar to Monaghan's. Whether Galway have the quality to go where Monaghan went remains to be seen. Donegal by 2

Kerry (100,69) vs Kildare (95,91)
I'll admit to having written off Kildare here last week and they sure proved me wrong. Many are saying that the result was due to Cork's short turn-around after the Munster final replay, but that is not giving full credit to Kildare's performance, particularly in attack where they were outstanding. Whether they can get the same supply of ball against Kerry is a different question, but with an average score of more than 21 points per game, Kildare do possess a formidable attacking unit. Kerry are Kerry are Kerry, they seem to manage to grind their way through games with moments of individual brilliance backed up by a resilient team spirit. Tradition, and a superior rating points difference, means it is Kerry to progress. Kerry by 4

Dublin (104,31, at home) vs Fermanagh (89,39)
What a season for Fermanagh to date, they certainly made waves in disposing of both Westmeath and Roscommon, and will be delighted to be still playing in August. They have one of the gems of the game in Sean Quigley and Tomas Corrigan didn't do too badly either against Westmeath. However, they have yet to play outside the province of Ulster this year, and their last visit to Croke Park, for the Division 3 final, didn't have a happy ending. Dublin continue to motor on, swatting aside opposition with their ferocious intensity and intricate movement. The bookies are going for a big win here for the Dubs, the prediction model is a bit more cautious. Dublin by 9

kerryjack · 31-07-2015 5:03pm

Do you work for a bookmaker just wondering is that how bookies figure out odds on game they usually get it right

laoisman11 · 01-08-2015 8:36am

kerryjack wrote: »

Do you work for a bookmaker just wondering is that how bookies figure out odds on game they usually get it right

No, don't work for a bookmaker. I'm sure that they have some predictive model based on previous results and then take into account betting patterns in order to determine the prices. I wouldn't say that they usually get it right though (and the model I use is not particularly accurate either). I am posting in the GAA betting thread on the gambling forum as well and will do a review at the end of the year there on the accuracy of PP's odds against what my model has shown.

laoisman11 · 04-08-2015 6:24pm

Kerry's bonus point win over Kildare moves them closer to Dublin, with less than 1 rating point now separating the sides
Donegal overtake Monaghan into 3rd after they ground out a win against Galway (although Monaghan should pop back up to 3rd if they beat Tyrone)
Tyrone move up one place to 6th, but that is as much due to Kildare's drop than Tyrone's win over Sligo, who drop one place to 16th
No rating points were exchanged in the Dublin-Fermanagh game as more than 15 rating points separated the sides

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating points| Δ Rating
1| steady| Dublin | 104.31 | 0.00
2| steady| Kerry | 103.76 | 3.07
3| increase| Donegal | 101.11 | 2.70
4| decrease| Monaghan | 99.70 | 0.00
5| steady| Mayo | 98.12 | 0.00
6| increase| Tyrone | 94.28 | 0.95
7| decrease| Kildare | 92.84 | -3.07
8| steady| Galway | 89.70 | -2.70
9| steady| Fermanagh | 89.39 | 0.00
10| steady| Cork | 89.36 | 0.00
11| steady| Derry | 85.52 | 0.00
12| steady| Roscommon | 83.69 | 0.00
13| steady| Meath | 83.02 | 0.00
14| steady| Armagh | 82.64 | 0.00
15| increase| Westmeath | 80.56 | 0.00
16| decrease| Sligo | 80.53 | -0.95
17| steady| Tipperary | 78.99 | 0.00
18| steady| Longford | 78.23 | 0.00
19| steady| Down | 77.27 | 0.00
20| steady| Wexford | 75.78 | 0.00
21| steady| Cavan | 75.27 | 0.00
22| steady| Clare | 73.45 | 0.00
23| steady| Limerick | 72.30 | 0.00
24| steady| Laois | 71.80 | 0.00
25| steady| Antrim | 71.70 | 0.00
26| steady| Offaly | 71.24 | 0.00
27| steady| Louth | 70.45 | 0.00
28| steady| Leitrim | 64.56 | 0.00
29| steady| Wicklow | 61.29 | 0.00
30| steady| London | 61.07 | 0.00
31| steady| Carlow | 60.92 | 0.00
32| steady| New York | 57.17 | 0.00
33| steady| Waterford | 56.32 | 0.00

Full explanation of ranking system here.

laoisman11 · 07-08-2015 7:11pm

The second pair of quarter-finals, here's hoping that these will be entertaining to the end.....On paper at least, they make for much more appetising games than last weekend.

Monaghan (99.70) vs Tyrone (94.28)
This promises to be another severe test of Monaghan's credentials following on from their gritty Ulster final victory. Indeed, their earlier win over Cavan was also a one-point affair. In terms of score averages, Monaghan are averaging 16.7 points per game with 12.7 conceded, with Conor McManus responsible for 44% of their scores. Tyrone have advanced steadily through the qualifiers after being knocked out of Ulster by Donegal and while there are many newcomers on the team, this stage of the championship is not new ground for Mickey Harte. Tyrone are averaging 16.6 points per game, with an average concession of 11.2 points, with approx. 60% of the scoring fairly evenly split between McCurry, Sean Cavanagh and McAliskey. Monaghan shouldn't have any problem implementing their system in Croke Park (their one point loss to Dublin in the league semi-final in Croker should stand to them) and they are more highly ranked than Tyrone. But still, this will be a tight one. The prediction model says: Monaghan by 1

Mayo (98.12) vs Donegal (101.11)
Payback time for Donegal or Mayo to keep the eternal dream alive? The drubbing in the 2013 quarter-final is probably still in Donegal's minds, but to match Mayo's performance on that day will not be enough as Mayo have advanced a lot as a team since then. The development of Aidan O'Shea adds a badly needed variety to Mayo's forward line, and the teams is complemented with an excellent midfield and very strong defense. However, they have not been really tested to date and doubts still remain about the character of the team. Donegal looked like serious contenders in their early championship games but against Monaghan, it all unraveled. They got the show back on the road against Galway, but they were far from impressive. This could be another extremely tight game (although I have to add as a caveat, if one team gets a bit ahead, this could turn into a score-fest). Mayo's huge win over Sligo distorts their scoring stats (30.5 for, 15.5 against over 2 games) whereas Donegal have 5 games played (15.2 for, 10.6 against). Even though Donegal are almost 3 rating points ahead of Mayo, the prediction model is saying: Draw

laoisman11 · 10-08-2015 7:33pm

And then there were 4........

Mayo's bonus point win over Donegal means that they gain 5.40 rating points, and move up to 3rd, just behind Kerry
Donegal drop out of the top 4 for the first time in 12 months
Tyrone move into the top 4 after a 12 month hiatus, having increased their rating points by 4.08
Monaghan drop back to a comfortable 6th position with an Ulster title their reward for this year's work

*Teams in bold still in championship
#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating points|Δ Rating
1| steady| Dublin | 104.31 | 0.00
2| steady| Kerry | 103.76 | 0.00
3| increase| Mayo | 103.52 | 5.40
4| increase| Tyrone | 98.36 | 4.08
5| decrease| Donegal | 95.71 | -5.40
6| decrease| Monaghan | 95.62 | -4.08
7| steady| Kildare | 92.84 | 0.00
8| steady| Galway | 89.70 | 0.00
9| steady| Fermanagh | 89.39 | 0.00
10| steady| Cork | 89.36 | 0.00
11| steady| Derry | 85.52 | 0.00
12| steady| Roscommon | 83.69 | 0.00
13| steady| Meath | 83.02 | 0.00
14| steady| Armagh | 82.64 | 0.00
15| steady| Westmeath | 80.56 | 0.00
16| steady| Sligo | 80.53 | 0.00
17| steady| Tipperary | 78.99 | 0.00
18| steady| Longford | 78.23 | 0.00
19| steady| Down | 77.27 | 0.00
20| steady| Wexford | 75.78 | 0.00
21| steady| Cavan | 75.27 | 0.00
22| steady| Clare | 73.45 | 0.00
23| steady| Limerick | 72.30 | 0.00
24| steady| Laois | 71.80 | 0.00
25| steady| Antrim | 71.70 | 0.00
26| steady| Offaly | 71.24 | 0.00
27| steady| Louth | 70.45 | 0.00
28| steady| Leitrim | 64.56 | 0.00
29| steady| Wicklow | 61.29 | 0.00
30| steady| London | 61.07 | 0.00
31| steady| Carlow | 60.92 | 0.00
32| steady| New York | 57.17 | 0.00
33| steady| Waterford | 56.32 | 0.00

Full explanation of ranking system here.

bunniesilove · 11-08-2015 12:05pm

Think Fermanagh should be higher ranked

zombieHanalei · 11-08-2015 11:07pm

bunniesilove wrote: »

Think Fermanagh should be higher ranked

In fairness, they're not at the level of the top 6 and as for the two other teams above them, Galway had wins over Derry and Armagh while Kildare had a big win over Cork, teams that were ranked closely to or above them at the time. Fermanagh had a good year but given the level of opposition they were up against (both championship and league) and I feel 9th was about as good as they could do without beating one of the 8 teams above them.

Fr Tod Umptious · 12-08-2015 9:45am

zombieHanalei wrote: »

In fairness, they're not at the level of the top 6 and as for the two other teams above them, Galway had wins over Derry and Armagh while Kildare had a big win over Cork, teams that were ranked closely to or above them at the time. Fermanagh had a good year but given the level of opposition they were up against (both championship and league) and I feel 9th was about as good as they could do without beating one of the 8 teams above them.

I think that sums it up nicely, 9 is just about right for a team promoted to Div 2 and getting to the QF via the much weaker A side of the draw

laoisman11 · 20-08-2015 8:00pm

Tyrone (98.36) vs Kerry (103.76)

Kerry, the perennial favourites, against their arch nemesis (and the arch nemesis of all that is good about Gaelic football if the media were to be taken seriously) Tyrone.

Kerry have advanced relatively steadily through the championship, stuttering slightly over Cork before unleashing a tirade against a shell-shocked Kildare side in the quarter-final. It is said that their weakness is their defense, but perhaps that is a relative weakness compared to the strength of their midfield and attacking unit. David Moran is having an exceptional year and is keeping the supply flowing into a star-studded forward unit. It's really in the attack where Kerry have the potential to exploit any weaknesses in an opponent's defense. There might be a doubt over the fitness of O'Donoghue but Kerry are not lacking in this area. They have scored an average of 23 points per game (12-56) while conceding 13.5 points (6-36).

Tyrone's defeat of the Ulster champions grants them the opportunity to go all the way to the final, after what has been undoubtedly a long road through the qualifiers. However, the fact that they have played 6 games has really helped them come together as a team and they have shown excellent resilience in their games to date. Of course, Sean Cavanagh remains the main man, but approximately 60% of their scoring potential is shared between Cavanagh, McAliskey and McCurry. They have scored an average of 16.8 points per game (3-92) versus a concession rate of 11.7 points (1-67).

While one has take into account the opposition they have each encountered, it is amazing that Tyrone have not conceded a goal since their first round Ulster loss to Donegal. Kerry are the second highest goal scorers in the championship, so something has got to give in that respect.

The sides have met on 5 previous occasions with Tyrone coming out on top 3 times :

1986 All-Ireland final Kerry 2-15 Tyrone 1-10 Croke Park
2003 All-Ireland semi-final Kerry 0-06 Tyrone 0-13 Croke Park
2005 All-Ireland final Tyrone 1-16 Kerry 2-10 Croke Park
2008 All-Ireland final Kerry 0-14 Tyrone 1-15 Croke Park
2012 Qualifiers (Rd 3) Kerry 1-16 Tyrone 1-06 Killarney

However, the results themselves don't paint the full picture. If we look at the respective ratings before each of these games were played, we can see that Kerry were rated superior to Tyrone on each occasion that they lost to the Ulster men.

It is probably because of this that the prediction model is going for a much tighter game than that predicted by the bookies. Kerry by 1

homewardbound11 · 20-08-2015 8:08pm

Kildare are a division 3 team . Kerry , Not really tested and unfortunately won't be tested on Sunday against a relegated to division 2 team .

Syferus · 20-08-2015 8:26pm

homewardbound11 wrote: »

Kildare are a division 3 team . Kerry , Not really tested and unfortunately won't be tested on Sunday against a relegated to division 2 team .

..against a team they themselves only managed a draw in a do-or-die relegation battle in the final round of the league, saved only by results elsewhere.

Look, I think Kerry should win handy enough but this is such a bad place to use the 'Team A is in Dx, Team B got relegated to Dy' argument it's hard not to laugh a little.

Football ranking table

Comments