Football ranking table

shrewdness · 04-04-2017 11:46am

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

As always these rankings have to be looked at as the bigger picture rather than a reflection of what just happened last weekend.

Are Monaghan the 7th best team in the country ?

Many would agree that that is pretty accurate.

I'd have thought many would say they're better than Galway.

Consey · 04-04-2017 11:57am

elefant wrote: »

I consider the ranking table here impressively accurate.

Some of the score predictions from the championship are very laudable, based on nothing but data (no injuries/external factors/ morale issues etc factored in).

I agree with Elefant and others above. It's always easy to knock and we could all pick holes in any system but I really like this system and I think it's as close as you'll get.

In the current top 8 for example, you could argue that Monaghan and Galway could swap places with Monaghan 6th & Galway 7th, with Monaghan penalised for losing to a far better team than Galway beat. But Monaghan didn't lose points, they just didn't gain any and Galway beat a form team (albeit the rankings can't take account of Kildare's 'weakened' selection last Sunday) so deserved something for that.

As Django said, they'd have been 5th had they held on for the win on Sunday. For me, 6th feels about right for Monaghan at present. Close to Donegal & Tyrone, a bit further back from Kerry & Mayo and further back again from the Dubs.

It will always be a little skewed towards the most recent result, which is how it should be, but the overall system makes sense and I enjoy looking it up to see where everyone lies. I will disagree at times, but find anything in GAA that everyone agrees with !?! That's the fun of it.

I've seen other, more complicated ranking systems and more complicated doesn't necessarily make them better in fact, in my opinion they were out of kilter with the real pecking order.

These are as good as you can get in my view and Laoisman deserves a lot of credit for how well thought out they are and for the work he puts into them.

CorkFenian · 04-04-2017 12:41pm

Very surprised none of the GAA journalists publicize this table, its fascinating to see the weekly changes and the reasoning behind it.

Much higher level analysis than the average GAA mainstream article

Hulk Hands · 04-04-2017 1:23pm

Django99 wrote: »

Not with the same method as in this exact system, but its broadly similar. Teams are basically ranked based on past results, with more recent results more important. That's what this ranking system is and that's how a bookie calculates odds.

No its not. It comes from the top of the head of a person(s) at one of the big firms. All the rest then copy one of those firms. If the price is wrong, the sharpest customers will knock it into line fairly quickly, usually at restricted stakes. I cant think of any sport thats priced using some sort of rankings model, but especially not GAA which turns over little in the grand scheme of things

theoneeyedman · 04-04-2017 10:34pm

CorkFenian wrote: »

Very surprised none of the GAA journalists publicize this table, its fascinating to see the weekly changes and the reasoning behind it.

Much higher level analysis than the average GAA mainstream article

No, it's easier for Breheny or Keys to make up some bull**** list before the championship starts based on nothing but finger in the air stuff and made up criteria.
When I started looking at laoismans list a year or. 2 back I was kinda sceptical, but the more you follow it it's not too far off the mark. Yea you can pick holes in it, but follow it over a few months in the summer and its not far off on most occasions.
Whataboutery notwithstanding, it's a good rule of thumb

seligehgit · 04-04-2017 11:31pm

Ah I think the algorithm laoisman11 uses for his rankings and match predictions is very accurate over the course of the season.

PARlance · 05-04-2017 10:12am

I'm just hoping the New York fairytale of late never ends! It's a great thread and always enjoy the predictons / updates.

laoisman11 · 12-04-2017 6:42pm

A first defeat for Dublin in decades (!) and all of a sudden we are going to have a very open championship! Kerry's win at HQ was the only shock of the finals, and moves them up to 2nd in the rankings.

With regards the league of 2017, the main winners and losers are given below:

Monaghan - gained 7.2 rating points, jumped 4 places in the ranking and avoided relegation from a tough division
Meath - 6.1 rating points and 8 ranking places gained, although promotion was just out of reach
Carlow - even though they did not increase their rank, Carlow gained 5.27 rating points, finishing 3rd in Division 4
Clare - lost 6.92 rating points and 7 ranking places, but maintained their Division 2 status. They did start the year from a high base though.
Dublin - hard to believe that you can go through 7 rounds of Division 1 league games unbeaten and then lose the final by a point and still drop 5.02 rating points!
Fermanagh - almost 5 rating points and 5 ranking places lost in a tough spring for the Ernemen

P.S. Cheers to all for the positive feedback, it's much appreciated

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 106.11 | -2.66
2 | ▲ | Kerry | 102.84 | 2.66
3 | ▼ | Mayo | 101.18 | 0.00
4 | = | Donegal | 97.26 | 0.00
5 | = | Tyrone | 93.97 | 0.00
6 | = | Galway | 93.21 | 1.16
7 | = | Monaghan | 91.24 | 0.00
8 | ▲ | Tipperary | 88.91 | 0.59
9 | ▲ | Meath | 87.75 | 0.00
10 | ▼ 2 | Kildare | 87.53 | -1.16
11 | = | Cork | 85.42 | 0.00
12 | = | Cavan | 85.24 | 0.00
13 | = | Westmeath | 84.38 | 0.08
14 | = | Clare | 84.05 | 0.00
15 | = | Roscommon | 83.09 | 0.00
16 | = | Derry | 80.53 | 0.00
17 | = | Armagh | 79.30 | 0.00
18 | = | Fermanagh | 78.89 | 0.00
19 | = | Down | 77.99 | 0.00
20 | = | Louth | 76.65 | -0.59
21 | = | Offaly | 76.23 | 0.00
22 | = | Longford | 75.85 | 0.00
23 | = | Sligo | 75.68 | 0.00
24 | = | Laois | 73.16 | 0.00
25 | = | Antrim | 70.86 | 0.00
26 | = | Wexford | 69.76 | -0.08
27 | = | Limerick | 69.46 | 0.00
28 | = | Carlow | 68.84 | 0.00
29 | = | Leitrim | 65.44 | 0.00
30 | = | New York | 57.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 57.11 | 0.00
32 | = | Wicklow | 55.89 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 55.47 | 0.00

Mr. Incognito · 13-04-2017 2:47pm

I was looking forward to this table all week.

tenbob1 · 15-04-2017 1:26pm

Same here, this is one of the threads I follow with interest lots. A big thank you to laoisman11 for running it.

laoisman11 · 13-05-2017 11:07pm

Another championship is upon us (apologies Sligo and New York!) and the big questions remain: who can beat Dublin? Will Mayo ever do it? When will Kerry’s conveyor belt of young talent be unleashed? Will Galway bate Mayo?…..

As for previous years, I will stick up the output from a prediction model that I put together a few years ago, but as also previously stated, these are not for betting purposes. I am away for a few weeks, so I will get the next 2 weekends out of the way now.

Monaghan (91.24, at home) vs Fermanagh (78.89)
Buoyed by a good run in Division 1, and the unearthing of someone to take the pressure off Conor McManus, Monaghan will be looking forward to a long run in the championship. Fermanagh’s league form was not so good and they finished bottom of Division 2. Fermanagh shipped a lot of goals during the league and with Monaghan the top goal-scorers in a higher division, a few more might fly in here. Prediction: Monaghan by 6

Mayo (101.18, at home) vs Sligo (75.68)
Mayo embark once again on the search for the holy grail and they will surely be there in August when the big questions are to be asked. They won’t have any fear of Sligo, especially on home ground, and could run up a big win here. Prediction: Mayo by 9

Louth (76.65) vs Wicklow (55.89)
Although they lost the Division 3 final to Tipperary, not many were tipping Louth to displace Armagh, Laois or Longford from a promotion place. 2 promotions in 2 years and good noises coming from the Wee county could result in a shock or two along the way this year. For now, Wicklow, having finished second from bottom of Division 4, won’t pose much of a challenge. Prediction: Louth by 7

Laois (73.16, at home) vs Longford (75.85)
A disaster of a league for Laois, finishing bottom of Division 3 after having being relegated from Division 2 the season previous. They did manage to beat Longford by a goal however, during a league campaign that won’t stand out either for the Longford men, who narrowly escaped relegation on the last day. Home advantage might swing it here but a Longford win would not be a shock. Prediction: Laois by 1

Carlow (68.84, at home) vs Wexford (69.76)
Not a whole lot between these 2 teams in rating points and their standings at the end of the league campaign were also very similar (although Wexford had promotion assured before their final 2 losses to Westmeath and Carlow). Wexford will surely be hurting from the divisional final loss to Westmeath and might be hoping to go further. The prediction model sees it differently. Prediction: Draw

Donegal (97.26, at home) vs Antrim (70.86)
A decent league campaign by Donegal, considering that they were forced to rely on some newer talent coming through. Antrim however found life too tough in Division 3 and dropped back down. They are likely to find life in Ballybofey equally tough. Prediction: Donegal by 9

Waterford (57.11, at home) vs Cork (85.42)
A real David versus Goliath effort here. Waterford’s league campaign was nothing to get excited about, while Cork fans could say the same, albeit operating at 2 divisions higher. The difference in divisions is bound to show here. Prediction: Cork by 11

London (55.47, at home) vs Leitrim (65.44)
London’s heady run in 2013 included a win (after a replay) against Leitrim’s finest but it is unlikely to repeat itself here. Leitrim had a solid league, winning 4 out of 7, while London’s one victory in the same division came in a shock win over Carlow. Prediction: Leitrim by 6

Clare (84.05, at home) vs Limerick (69.46)
Clare found the going tough in Division 2, but still managed to stay up, even if it was on scoring difference. Limerick’s Division 4 form started off poorly, but they are coming off a 4 game winning streak. It probably won’t be enough to seriously trouble Clare however, especially at home. Prediction: Clare by 7

Derry (80.53, at home) vs Tyrone (93.97)
Big rivals here and even if there is more than 10 rating points difference between the teams (when home advantage is taken into account), Derry won’t be at all phased by Tyrone. Derry’s league form was worrying however, and they will spend next season in Division 3 while Tyrone had a solid, if unspectacular Division 1 campaign. And for that reason, the model is going with Tyrone. Prediction: Tyrone by 3

Bonniedog · 14-05-2017 12:03am

Hulk Hands wrote: »

No its not. It comes from the top of the head of a person(s) at one of the big firms. All the rest then copy one of those firms. If the price is wrong, the sharpest customers will knock it into line fairly quickly, usually at restricted stakes. I cant think of any sport thats priced using some sort of rankings model, but especially not GAA which turns over little in the grand scheme of things

Good take on GAA betting. It is very uncompetitive, basically one company who like Ted at the dog racing set the prices, but as you say if they do get it wrong money will correct it pretty sharpish. But they wont take much.

Mostly though there is no value. Dubs games are ridiculously priced.

Coillte_Bhoy · 19-05-2017 2:21pm

laoisman11 wrote: »

Another championship is upon us (apologies Sligo and New York!) and the big questions remain: who can beat Dublin? Will Mayo ever do it? When will Kerry?s conveyor belt of young talent be unleashed? Will Galway bate Mayo??..

As for previous years, I will stick up the output from a prediction model that I put together a few years ago, but as also previously stated, these are not for betting purposes. I am away for a few weeks, so I will get the next 2 weekends out of the way now.

Monaghan (91.24, at home) vs Fermanagh (78.89)
Buoyed by a good run in Division 1, and the unearthing of someone to take the pressure off Conor McManus, Monaghan will be looking forward to a long run in the championship. Fermanagh?s league form was not so good and they finished bottom of Division 2. Fermanagh shipped a lot of goals during the league and with Monaghan the top goal-scorers in a higher division, a few more might fly in here. Prediction: Monaghan by 6

Mayo (101.18, at home) vs Sligo (75.68)
Mayo embark once again on the search for the holy grail and they will surely be there in August when the big questions are to be asked. They won?t have any fear of Sligo, especially on home ground, and could run up a big win here. Prediction: Mayo by 9

Louth (76.65) vs Wicklow (55.89)
Although they lost the Division 3 final to Tipperary, not many were tipping Louth to displace Armagh, Laois or Longford from a promotion place. 2 promotions in 2 years and good noises coming from the Wee county could result in a shock or two along the way this year. For now, Wicklow, having finished second from bottom of Division 4, won?t pose much of a challenge. Prediction: Louth by 7

Laois (73.16, at home) vs Longford (75.85)
A disaster of a league for Laois, finishing bottom of Division 3 after having being relegated from Division 2 the season previous. They did manage to beat Longford by a goal however, during a league campaign that won?t stand out either for the Longford men, who narrowly escaped relegation on the last day. Home advantage might swing it here but a Longford win would not be a shock. Prediction: Laois by 1

Carlow (68.84, at home) vs Wexford (69.76)
Not a whole lot between these 2 teams in rating points and their standings at the end of the league campaign were also very similar (although Wexford had promotion assured before their final 2 losses to Westmeath and Carlow). Wexford will surely be hurting from the divisional final loss to Westmeath and might be hoping to go further. The prediction model sees it differently. Prediction: Draw

Donegal (97.26, at home) vs Antrim (70.86)
A decent league campaign by Donegal, considering that they were forced to rely on some newer talent coming through. Antrim however found life too tough in Division 3 and dropped back down. They are likely to find life in Ballybofey equally tough. Prediction: Donegal by 9

I did an accumulator on your picks this weekend for the crack omitting the Carlow/Wicklow draw. So the other five comes in at just over 21/1.

danganabu · 19-05-2017 4:16pm

Bonniedog wrote: »

Good take on GAA betting. It is very uncompetitive, basically one company who like Ted at the dog racing set the prices, but as you say if they do get it wrong money will correct it pretty sharpish. But they wont take much.

Mostly though there is no value. Dubs games are ridiculously priced.

I don't understand the bolded part? Unless the over-round is less than or equal to 100% then there is always value.

keane2097 · 19-05-2017 4:30pm

danganabu wrote: »

I don't understand the bolded part? Unless the over-round is less than or equal to 100% then there is always value.

If Dublin are always overpriced then there's by definition always value on Dublin games. You just back the other team.

In fact I think it was last season or maybe the season before when Dublin failed to beat the HC in a long string of games - someone else might have the stats handy.

danganabu · 19-05-2017 4:39pm

keane2097 wrote: »

If Dublin are always overpriced then there's by definition always value on Dublin games. You just back the other team.

Precisely! And of course vice-versa.

Bonniedog · 19-05-2017 7:07pm

danganabu wrote: »

I don't understand the bolded part? Unless the over-round is less than or equal to 100% then there is always value.

The over round is way higher than 100%!

Look at the pricing of Mayo/Sligo - 1/14, 8/1.

An equivalent in terms of relative class etc in EPL this weekend is Chelsea/Sunderland - 2/13 and 18/1. That's because it is much bigger and competitive market.

Admittedly you can get some value on handicaps sometimes. Or stuff like amount of goals or points totals. But who'd be backing Mayo at 1/14?

Bonniedog · 19-05-2017 7:14pm

keane2097 wrote: »

If Dublin are always overpriced then there's by definition always value on Dublin games. You just back the other team.

In fact I think it was last season or maybe the season before when Dublin failed to beat the HC in a long string of games - someone else might have the stats handy.

If Mayo are 1/14 then Sligo should be at least 14/1 not 8/1! That's what I mean.

As I said, the handicap markets can throw up some interesting bets and you are right about Dublin. Mayo - 8 on Sunday?

DoctaDee · 19-05-2017 7:46pm

Bonniedog wrote: »

The over round is way higher than 100%!

Look at the pricing of Mayo/Sligo - 1/14, 8/1.

An equivalent in terms of relative class etc in EPL this weekend is Chelsea/Sunderland - 2/13 and 18/1. That's because it is much bigger and competitive market.

Admittedly you can get some value on handicaps sometimes. Or stuff like amount of goals or points totals. But who'd be backing Mayo at 1/14?

Factoring in the 3rd horse in the race (the draw @ 16/1) gives an overround of 110% for the mayo game

Factoring the draw in Chelsea match gives an overround of 103%

So yeah you're quite right in this instance a bigger and more competitive market has reduced the overround in the soccer

theoneeyedman · 20-05-2017 3:41pm

Bonniedog wrote: »

If Mayo are 1/14 then Sligo should be at least 14/1 not 8/1! That's what I mean.

That's why you'll never see a bookie on a bike

Bonniedog · 20-05-2017 4:50pm

theoneeyedman wrote: »

That's why you'll never see a bookie on a bike

I did witness one bookie at Shelbourne years ago who stupidly went 2/7 Larkhill Joe when everyone else was 1/4. He had to pack up his stuff and go home

But yes, it is rare!

callaway92 · 23-05-2017 10:25am

laoisman11 wrote: »

Carlow (68.84, at home) vs Wexford (69.76)
Not a whole lot between these 2 teams in rating points and their standings at the end of the league campaign were also very similar (although Wexford had promotion assured before their final 2 losses to Westmeath and Carlow). Wexford will surely be hurting from the divisional final loss to Westmeath and might be hoping to go further. The prediction model sees it differently. Prediction: Draw

I know you said that your post was nothing to do with betting, but from your prediction on this coupled with Carlow being handicapped +2 points by the bookmakers I made a nice minor cash inflow from this.

Great write up either way. Love your work

Westernyelp · 23-05-2017 9:11pm

Mayo (101.18, at home) vs Sligo (75.68)
Mayo embark once again on the search for the holy grail and they will surely be there in August when the big questions are to be asked. They won’t have any fear of Sligo, especially on home ground, and could run up a big win here. Prediction: Mayo by 9

Pretty spot on here too!

laoisman11 · 29-05-2017 10:57am

callaway92 wrote: »

I know you said that your post was nothing to do with betting, but from your prediction on this coupled with Carlow being handicapped +2 points by the bookmakers I made a nice minor cash inflow from this.

Great write up either way. Love your work

If ye are looking for tips, the Championship pools thread and the predictions of certain posters are more accurate than what this model is able to predict.

laoisman11 · 30-05-2017 9:13pm

Changes below are following the results of the first 2 weeks of the championship.....

After a disastrous league campaign, Laois were the big winners of these early rounds of the championship, gaining 4.41 rating points and 4 places at the expense of Longford
Carlow were the other big winners, gathering 2.58 rating points following their great win over Wexford. Carlow are now the most improved team of the year in terms of rating points change

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating

1 | = | Dublin | 106.11 | 0.00

2 | = | Kerry | 102.84 | 0.00

3 | = | Mayo | 101.18 | 0.00

4 | = | Donegal | 97.26 | 0.00

5 | = | Tyrone | 95.34 | 1.37

6 | = | Galway | 93.21 | 0.00

7 | = | Monaghan | 91.24 | 0.00

8 | = | Tipperary | 88.91 | 0.00

9 | = | Meath | 87.75 | 0.00

10 | = | Kildare | 87.53 | 0.00

11 | = | Cork | 85.42 | 0.00

12 | = | Cavan | 85.24 | 0.00

13 | = | Westmeath | 84.38 | 0.00

14 | = | Clare | 84.05 | 0.00

15 | = | Roscommon | 83.09 | 0.00

16 | ▲ | Armagh | 79.30 | 0.00

17 | ▼ | Derry | 79.16 | -1.37

18 | = | Fermanagh | 78.89 | 0.00

19 | = | Down | 77.99 | 0.00

20 | ▲ 4 | Laois | 77.57 | 4.41

21 | ▼ | Louth | 76.65 | 0.00

22 | ▼ | Offaly | 76.23 | 0.00

23 | = | Sligo | 75.68 | 0.00

24 | ▼ 2 | Longford | 71.44 | -4.41

25 | ▲ 3 | Carlow | 71.42 | 2.58

26 | ▼ | Antrim | 70.86 | 0.00

27 | = | Limerick | 69.46 | 0.00

28 | ▼ 2 | Wexford | 67.18 | -2.58

29 | = | Leitrim | 67.05 | 1.61

30 | = | New York | 57.16 | 0.00

31 | = | Waterford | 57.11 | 0.00

32 | = | Wicklow | 55.89 | 0.00

33 | = | London | 53.86 | -1.61

Jayop · 30-05-2017 9:21pm

Would be nice t get back up into the top 4 and push for a place higher than that again with a win over Donegal. I'm guessing a win would give us around 3 points.

cj maxx · 31-05-2017 11:33pm

Desperate that Wicklow is below both London and New York . .

laoisman11 · 01-06-2017 10:23pm

I'm away again for a while without the computer so I'll put up the next 2 weekend's games. The top 3 are in action over the next fortnight, and it feels that summer is finally on its way.

Carlow (71.42) vs Dublin (106.11)
The most improved team in the country up against the best team in the country, but the divide is great between them. Dublin will be happy to slowly get up to championship pace and, no disrepect to Carlow, but they will be happy to have had the experience of a full and lively house. Carlow's sights are set elsewhere, and a favourable qualifier draw would help them immensely. Prediction: Dublin by 14

Louth (76.65) vs Meath (87.75)
Louth are coming off a good run and will always be keen to put one over on their more-illustrious neighbours. Meath won't have been too disappointed either with their league campaign, even if promotion was just out of reach. Meath had a good scoring return during the league and a repeat of that here should do the trick. Prediction: Meath by 5

Laois (77.57) vs Kildare (87.53)
Division 1 meets division 4, but despite this gulf, Laois will savour the underdog tag. A good win over Longford was underpinned by a new-found goal-scoring threat, whether that was planned or down to Longford's defence will be found out as the summer goes on. Kildare should be hoping for a long run this year, and would ideally be looking at a quarter-final place. This could be closer than many think (or my heart is still ruling my head). Luckily, the prediction model is not biased. Kildare by 5

Down (77.99, at home) vs Armagh (79.30)
Down managed to avoid relegation from Division 2 while Armagh managed to avoid promotion from Division 3. It is hard to know which team will have learnt more from the first 5 months of 2017, but Armagh did run up some impressive scores when they got their show on the road. They will face a Down side keen to rectify the slide of recent years, and while Armagh might be favourites, the presence of 5 debutantes on their side will likely keep this close. Prediction: Draw

Cork (85.42, at home) vs Tipperary (88.91)
It's just as well the prediction model doesn't take into account games where a team is expected to win by 11 but then only wins by 1. Tipperary will approach this game with (too much?) confidence following Waterford's near exploits, but there has to be some fight in this Cork side. They definitely have the quality to match Tipperary but they will have to fight for it. Prediction: Tipperary by 3

Galway (93.21, at home) Mayo (101.18)
Division 2 title secured, Galway will be keen to show that last year was not a flash in the pan (Tipperary loss excluded). They have a good squad mentality and don't have the same burden on their shoulders as Mayo's perennial warriors. It's really hard to know if Mayo would not prefer a run in the qualifiers as it didn't really hurt their chances last year. The prediction model is unable to call it - Prediction: Draw

Offaly (76.23, at home) vs Westmeath (84.38)
Neither team have been going particularly well in recent years, and the prize for this game being a minor duel against the Dubs, it is hard to know who will want it more. All the same, local bragging rights are up for grabs, and they don't come around very often. Offaly have been operating at a higher level than Westmeath for the last few months, but there must be some history between the teams that causes the prediction model to go for the bookies' underdog. Prediction: Offaly by 1

Kerry (102.84, at home) vs Clare (84.05)
Clare will surely be sick of the sight of Kerry at this stage. This game will be the 3rd time that Kerry have played Clare in 5 games, with the 2 previous encounters having winning margins of 11 and 12 points. Something similar is expected here. Prediction: Kerry by 10

Cavan (85.24, at home) vs Monaghan (91.24)
Which Cavan team will show up? The one that capitulated to Dublin, Tyrone and Donegal, or the one that beat Mayo in Castlebar and drew with Kerry in the Breffni? Monaghan's consistency and proficient scorers, allied with a decent run out against Fermanagh under their belts could lead some to think that this will be all one-way traffic. The prediction model is not in entire agreement. Prediction: Draw

theoneeyedman · 03-06-2017 10:37am

A question about the prediction model.
Kerry Clare is predicted as a 10 point kerry win. Mayo Galway is predicted as a draw.
The points table hasn't that different a gap from kerry /Clare and Galway /Mayo. I'm not questioning the predictions, just how they came to such different results with similar inputs on the face of it, (except that kerry and Galway are at home).

Is there another model running behind the points table, or is there a 'bias' given that Galway beat Mayo recently /traditional rivalry and that a lay man would expect kerry to trounce Clare normally.

(Top work Laoisman though, not poo-pooing it at all)

Bonniedog · 03-06-2017 10:49am

Dublin -13 is a more credible line than the one the bookies have up - 19.

Dublin might very well win by 20 points or more, but really, would they be ar?ed?

They will win by more than 13 you would imagine.

Football ranking table

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