Ken Rings Predictions/Weather methods discussion fourm,MOD NOTE FIRST POST !

Kenring wrote: »

Well said. We are all adult enough to make up our own minds. We do not need the opinions and appraisals of others who think they know enough to tell others what to think or what not to buy.

To re-quote what has probably been quoted on boards a million times before -

"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it."

I do not understand the criticism being hurled at Mr Ring. He makes predictions with the goal of helping people to whom the weather matters a great deal (farmers being priority, I assume) to make a decision based on third party information and their own good judgement.

Relying on information from a single source can be foolish. In the same way that different news agencies re-present the same story differently. To get a clearer picture of what really happened, it really is quite important to look at it from as many positions as possible.

To quote Aristotle (again) - “The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.”

If you can't be bothered to research multiple opinions from multiple sources and then combine that information with your own common sense, then prepare to be disappointed. Don't take it out on someone who's simply trying to help.

Last quote, I promise!

- "Things in life ain’t always quite what they seem, there’s more than one given angle to any one given scene.
So bear that in mind next time you try to intervene on any one given angle, on any one given scene."

The problem with predictions like Ken makes is that it allows for a margin for error that seems reasonable, but when you think about it, if I say the weather at the start of August will be lovely plus or minus 7 days, the margin of error includes the start of August, the last week in July, and the entire first half of August.

So rather than a specific forecast, in reality, all I have said is that there will be a nice week of weather in the peak of the Irish Summer. If it doesn't materialise, I can say 'I'm only 70% accurate in my predictions, but look at my track record'

When, by chance, one of Ken's predictions comes true, many people remember the prediction and give Ken the credit. When his predictions don't come true, nobody goes back to Ken and query what went wrong.

It's a confirmation bias.

(Scrutinising the methodology only)

Kenring wrote: »

what they think my methods consist of, e.g 18 year cycles etc. My method is much more than that and involves a 3-sided approach, a combination of solar factors (for amounts of prior evaporation), lunar factors (for weather timing, the use of about 5 cycles), and inner planets (for impact on the solar cycle).

1. Solar factors; well known as the main driver of weather phenomena. There's pretty good real science relating the absolute output of the Sun to climatic trends on this planet. However there hasn't been much in the way of peer-reviewed (real science) work that showed correlation between the 11/22 year cycle to weather. There's some possibility of short-term climatic change driven by the solar cycle but it's hard to discern from the larger drivers of short-term change such as CO2 levels. The longer sunspot-relevant cycles are possibly correlated to climatic trends (see Maunder Minimum) though the effects on weather haven't been clearly shown at this stage.
Another purely solar cycle is precession, where the Earth is closer to the Sun in January, and over about 25800 years that closest point in the orbit changes throughout the year. In the time of Newgrange, the closest point in the Earth's orbit was actually around the equinox. It's a pity that we don't have much in the way of data to support seeing if that had made any real changes.
Solar tidal effects are also something that would possibly be an effect on weather systems, but more as a combining and negating effect on the Lunar tidal effect.

2. Lunar factors; Tidal effects should affect the atmosphere much the same as the ocean, so it stands to reason that there should be some effects due to lunar altitude. One has to take into account the changing distance to the moon, as well as the change in max altitude due to the Moon's orbital plane not coinciding with the Earth's rotational plane. E.g. the effects on the tide that can breach coastal defences when variosu factors coincide (see floods in Holland in '56) with a new/full moon at perigee, in January, with the moon at 5 degrees above the ecliptic, leading to a significantly higher tide than normal. All well known astronomical effects, with pretty exact timings. Not a lot of results in the peer-reviewed journals, though some others are having some success (c.f. MTC)
The Saros cycle of ~18 years applies more to Eclipse predictions than tidal effects but they are linked as it's an expression of the geometry of the Lunar orbit.
Question for Ken: You say you use about 5 cycles. Which cycle do you mean as there are quite a few Lunar-relevant cycles?


3. Inner planet effects; In short - No impact seen by the Sun. There aren't any periodicities noted in any long term studies of the Solar "atmosphere" that coincide with any periodicities that may be due to the inner planets. There haven't been any effects seen on the Solar cycle (either the ~11 year sunspot cycle or the much longer superimposed cycle that may be present linked to the Maunder Minimum).
Mercury's tide on the Sun has been calculated, but it doesn't show up in any measurements of the Sun's surface which have been accurate enough to show them, nor has any period yet shown up in any research done. At this point with what we know and what has been measured, it can safely be said that there are no direct planetary effects that affect the Sun in any meaningful way.

Kenring wrote: »

It is all basic science rooted in commonsense.

Some of the thoughts of what would sound like common sense fall down upon further realistic scrutiny, such as the inner planet effects. With a better understanding of real science, things that have appeared as common sense may end up being no more than old wives tales as they don't have any sound science behind them.

Kenring wrote: »

It's also your confirmation bias to have said what you have said. I never ask for 7 days leeway - you made that up.
Rather, I have been fairly specific, naming 9 July back in January for the heatwave and temps of 30C. If you don't believe me google any Irish newspaper because every paper carried the story. I have also said the first third of July and the last half of August would constitute the summer.

According to the independent, in January you predicted April 16 - April 25 to be a good time to take a holiday in ireland.
http://www.independent.ie/weather/weather-guru-ken-ring-says-were-in-for-a-summer-scorcher-28953806.html

It was very windy and very wet with tornado alerts during that period
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056916020&page=4


You also predicted 12th of May to 19th of may as relatively a good period
According to the the daily reports from Boards users, that period was cold (max temps aroung 12 degrees) wet, windy with scattered storms.
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056938774&page=4

The third recommendation from that article is June 17th to June 25th
Well, the first 3 weeks of June were quite pleasant in places with temperatures sometimes reaching over 20 degrees and mostly dry
From the 21st of June a number of fronts moved in and lowered the temperatures and brought unsettled weather
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056961656&page=12

So there are 3 specific periods where you predicted that there should be relatively nice weather in Ireland and in all 3 instances, you were wrong.

Kenring wrote: »

Not everywhere gets the same weather. I deal in trends. The only "problem" with predictions is what you make them into. Predictions are only predictions, not certainties. They are some idea of what's coming. You can easily remove the problem by looking away.
I predicted fine weather for the first half of July. We all know now that came about.
It is easy to say after the fact, "any of us could make similar predictions", but how come I was the only one who did back in January?

Because most people in the business of predicting weather wouldn't dare to make such a prediction 7 months in advance. They know that there is no way of predicting when a blocking system of High pressure will get settled over Ireland.

Just because you made a prediction, doesn't mean you had any insight.

I can predict that Clare will win the All Ireland Hurling final. If they go on to win, I can say 'I told you so'. if they get beaten I can say 'well they would have won except for *insert excuse here*'
In reality, my 'prediction' is just a guess. In sport, the result is not determined until the day of the event. In weather, the conditions are variable minute to minute. predicting them a year in advance is witchcraft

And you can't claim the 'hits' when the weather matches your prediction, and then make excuses for the misses. That's selection bias