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Ken Rings Predictions/Weather methods discussion fourm,MOD NOTE FIRST POST !

  • 07-08-2013 10:35pm
    #1
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭


    I am going to set up this thread dedicated to Ken's weather predictions and discussing his methods , ANY "I TOLD YOU SO'S" WILL BE BANNED , ANY PERSONAL ABUSE AND YOU WILL BE BANNED, ANY BACK SEAT MODDING AND YOU GUESSED IT YOU WILL BE BANNED, ANY COMMERCIAL INTERACTION AND YOU WILL BE BANNED , KEEP IT ALL ON THREAD OR PM and don't clog up any other threads

    And for the love of God please use paragraphs people !
    Tagged:


«134

Comments

  • #2
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    As I have already explained in another thread I don't think this is fair. It singles me out again for special treatment. There is no forum for discussing the efficacy of Met Eireann or MTC, so the thread will be an opportunity to denigrate me from the start, and a way those who find ideological difference to make up what they think I do and mislead people who genuinely wish to understand lunar forces better.

    Before one goes to a doctor one does not case the neighborhood to find out what people think of him. One visits someone they have decided beforehand they wish to receive information from. It is the same with taking your car to a certain mechanic and it is the same with me. To continually hold me up as something to be endlessly and critically scrutinied is a magnet for fault-finding.

    It is the reverse of a basic rule. I am not allowed to tout for business. So why should boards.ie allow itself to tout me for non-business by allowing criticism and unkind constant critical analysis? Also in a way it highly advertises my work, and with my 2014 almanac coming out in less than a month may draw more attention to it than otherwise would be the case. People may come to my website to find out what the fuss is about and increase my business.

    If this thread goes ahead I shall complain to as high an authority as I can. It is simply not right nor fair and hugely disrespectful of someone just trying to make a contribution to help people enjoy their lives a bit more. My contributions to any threads do not threaten anyone, they are just opinions. People do not have to read them. All are free to ignore or find interest.

    Obviously I cannot contribute to a forum dedicating itself to pulling me apart which will be a magnet for the worst in some posters who have already expressed false information about what they think my methods consist of, e.g 18 year cycles etc. My method is much more than that and involves a 3-sided approach, a combination of solar factors (for amounts of prior evaporation), lunar factors (for weather timing, the use of about 5 cycles), and inner planets (for impact on the solar cycle).

    It is all basic science rooted in commonsense. It need not threaten any meteorologist, many of whom are posters here under false names. It will do boards.ie more harm than good. Media watch this space and they build articles from what they read. They will be laying themselves open to false information because it will be hearsay.

    Please reconsider this.


  • #3
    SamAK
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,094 ✭✭✭SamAK


    When I want some idea of what the weather is going to do, I usually consult three websites - Accuweather, Met Eireann, and a Norwegian site (yr.no).

    I take these opinions and consider them. I then look out of the window and may even step outside to smell the air and feel the breeze. I take into account the season, and my past experience of Irish weather.

    I process all of this information, and use common sense and reasoning to come to a conclusion. And even then, i'm resigned to the fact that I can't possibly know for sure anyway, that's the way weather works.

    It's not black and white, maybe some of us need to accept that there are some things that do not have straight-forward YES/NO answers.


  • #4
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    SamAK wrote: »
    When I want some idea of what the weather is going to do, I usually consult three websites - Accuweather, Met Eireann, and a Norwegian site (yr.no).

    I take these opinions and consider them. I then look out of the window and may even step outside to smell the air and feel the breeze. I take into account the season, and my past experience of Irish weather.

    I process all of this information, and use common sense and reasoning to come to a conclusion. And even then, i'm resigned to the fact that I can't possibly know for sure anyway, that's the way weather works.

    It's not black and white, maybe some of us need to accept that there are some things that do not have straight-forward YES/NO answers.
    Well said. We are all adult enough to make up our own minds. We do not need the opinions and appraisals of others who think they know enough to tell others what to think or what not to buy.


  • #5
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    If you think any post is wrong or misinterpreting you just use the the report button and it will be sorted fairly lively ,



    Also as I just replied to you in the other thread but there is thread for most including the Donegal postman,

    The thread is not about your efficiency, just a place to discuss your methods and predictions

    MTC' Discussion thread

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=80884343

    And

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=79679392

    MET EIREANN Discussion Thread

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056857470


  • #6
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Ken, Once you are on here as a participating member of the forum offering advise on weather and insight to your methods and not directing people to your website there will be no issues :)


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  • #7
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Ken, Once you are on here as a participating member of the forum offering advise on weather and insight to your methods and not directing people to your website there will be no issues :)
    Firstly, I have not agreed to come on here offering insight to my methods.
    Secondly, why are Met Eireann and MTC and their supporters/commentators allowed to quote their URLs and not me? My website is my work. All that I mention with regard to Irish forecasts is already in my almanac or on the website. How can that be separated out in any discussion of advice on weather?


  • #8
    SamAK
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,094 ✭✭✭SamAK


    Kenring wrote: »
    Well said. We are all adult enough to make up our own minds. We do not need the opinions and appraisals of others who think they know enough to tell others what to think or what not to buy.

    To re-quote what has probably been quoted on boards a million times before -

    "It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it."

    I do not understand the criticism being hurled at Mr Ring. He makes predictions with the goal of helping people to whom the weather matters a great deal (farmers being priority, I assume) to make a decision based on third party information and their own good judgement.

    Relying on information from a single source can be foolish. In the same way that different news agencies re-present the same story differently. To get a clearer picture of what really happened, it really is quite important to look at it from as many positions as possible.

    To quote Aristotle (again) - “The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.”

    If you can't be bothered to research multiple opinions from multiple sources and then combine that information with your own common sense, then prepare to be disappointed. Don't take it out on someone who's simply trying to help.

    Last quote, I promise!

    - "Things in life ain’t always quite what they seem, there’s more than one given angle to any one given scene.
    So bear that in mind next time you try to intervene on any one given angle, on any one given scene."


  • #9
    oterra
    Registered Users Posts: 230 ✭✭oterra


    I have listened to Ken's predictions over the past few years with great interest. He's not always accurate but generally close imho. I do come here to get MT's forecast but always listen to Ken on his usual annual slot on Matt Cooper. In fact I penciled in a weeks holidays in July with the family in kerry during the great weather. My dates were based on Ken's predictions 2 months prior to the great weather!! :-)


  • #10
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Kenring wrote: »
    Firstly, I have not agreed to come on here offering insight to my methods.
    Secondly, why are Met Eireann and MTC and their supporters/commentators allowed to quote their URLs and not me? My website is my work. All that I mention with regard to Irish forecasts is already in my almanac or on the website. How can that be separated out in any discussion of advice on weather?

    Because I can click onto Met Eireann's website now for free and view the weather information I am looking for, and read MTC every morning for free on boards, Facebook,IWO

    Also there in lies the problem , if you dont want to discuss your methods in here or share free information with the boards community I suggest you look into getting a commercial account

    simple as that really


  • #11
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,182 ✭✭✭pauldry


    I was looking at Kens Prediction that the second half of August would be dry. I hope it is coz this morning it was so dark though it brightened up in the evening a lot in Sligo.

    Look at the models and MTs predictions mostly myself. Met Eireann forecast on TV after the news seems to be more accurate than their website for some reason I think its coz they have to give a straight yes no as opposed to tweaking of webpage constantly as the day changes

    Anyways I looked a model predictions yesterday and second half of august didnt look too good, today it did but its very marginal so it could possibly just be a South of Ireland thing with mist and drizzle in the north,

    September could be good too since we are owed so much good weather


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  • #12
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Because I can click onto Met Eireann's website now for free and view the weather information I am looking for, and read MTC every morning for free on boards, Facebook,IWO

    Also there in lies the problem , if you dont want to discuss your methods in here or share free information with the boards community I suggest you look into getting a commercial account

    simple as that really
    Anyone can also click onto my website for free. There are free articles there about Irish weather too. But you will not allow me to refer to them.

    There is also a side to Met Eireann that is commercial, and that people will be aware of if they visit their general URL.

    Therein lies the double standard.


  • #13
    ch750536
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,736 ✭✭✭ch750536


    Sorry Ken but I cant access that doc without paying for it. It asks me to subscribe after I have created an account.

    I can access the other items listed in the free section (Free Publications) so this does look like a genuine website error.


  • #14
    Red Pepper
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,567 ✭✭✭Red Pepper


    Ken, do you still think 2nd half of august will be nice in Galway when I am in hols? Do your models vary much or are they generally more locked in than met.ie at an earlier stage?

    By the way, please don't leave boards. Great to learn from people like you.


  • #15
    relaxed
    Closed Accounts Posts: 572 ✭✭✭relaxed


    I just don't get kens methods at all. There was supposed to be very warm days around the 7th but this has failed to materialise, the last few days have been ok at times but certainly not very warm.

    It's also supposed to be in the 20's for the month yet met eireann are now forecasting cooler, fresher weather for the next few days.

    I believe any of us could write such a vague forecast, some of it will come good and we could trumpet how great we are.

    For me the clincher is saying limerick may be wettest and Louth may be driest. Met eireanns long term rainfall statistics show southwest Munster and northeast Leinster to be the wettest / driest regions in the country, so that's a pretty safe bet, and based on met eireanns charts rather than the moon I feel.


  • #16
    Akrasia
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,602 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    The problem with predictions like Ken makes is that it allows for a margin for error that seems reasonable, but when you think about it, if I say the weather at the start of August will be lovely plus or minus 7 days, the margin of error includes the start of August, the last week in July, and the entire first half of August.

    So rather than a specific forecast, in reality, all I have said is that there will be a nice week of weather in the peak of the Irish Summer. If it doesn't materialise, I can say 'I'm only 70% accurate in my predictions, but look at my track record'

    When, by chance, one of Ken's predictions comes true, many people remember the prediction and give Ken the credit. When his predictions don't come true, nobody goes back to Ken and query what went wrong.

    It's a confirmation bias.


  • #17
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Red Pepper wrote: »
    Ken, do you still think 2nd half of august will be nice in Galway when I am in hols? Do your models vary much or are they generally more locked in than met.ie at an earlier stage?

    By the way, please don't leave boards. Great to learn from people like you.
    I am honestly confused as to what to do. I don't wish to leave but I have been warned not to mention anything from my website as this is viewed as touting my services. Apparently this standard does not apply to Met Eireann.
    I have a free book teaching my method available online from my website but somehow mentioning this is considered commercial gain for me, heavens knows how.
    I therefore think I will either be kicked off this forum by this double standard or I am forced to be silent. Either way it appears mods want me gone so I can be talked about in my absence without opportunity to respond.


  • #18
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Akrasia wrote: »
    The problem with predictions like Ken makes is that it allows for a margin for error that seems reasonable, but when you think about it, if I say the weather at the start of August will be lovely plus or minus 7 days, the margin of error includes the start of August, the last week in July, and the entire first half of August.

    So rather than a specific forecast, in reality, all I have said is that there will be a nice week of weather in the peak of the Irish Summer. If it doesn't materialise, I can say 'I'm only 70% accurate in my predictions, but look at my track record'

    When, by chance, one of Ken's predictions comes true, many people remember the prediction and give Ken the credit. When his predictions don't come true, nobody goes back to Ken and query what went wrong.

    It's a confirmation bias.
    It's also your confirmation bias to have said what you have said. I never ask for 7 days leeway - you made that up.
    Rather, I have been fairly specific, naming 9 July back in January for the heatwave and temps of 30C. If you don't believe me google any Irish newspaper because every paper carried the story. I have also said the first third of July and the last half of August would constitute the summer.


  • #19
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    ch750536 wrote: »
    Sorry Ken but I cant access that doc without paying for it. It asks me to subscribe after I have created an account.

    I can access the other items listed in the free section (Free Publications) so this does look like a genuine website error.
    You will have to email me about this as I don't understand the problem you are having. You may be searching for the wrong document. Apparently I musn't discuss anything here on my website even if it is free, so I'm still not sure what I can even refer to there.
    My email is ken@weatherman.co.nz and I'll help if I can.


  • #20
    Popoutman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭Popoutman


    (Scrutinising the methodology only)
    Kenring wrote: »
    what they think my methods consist of, e.g 18 year cycles etc. My method is much more than that and involves a 3-sided approach, a combination of solar factors (for amounts of prior evaporation), lunar factors (for weather timing, the use of about 5 cycles), and inner planets (for impact on the solar cycle).

    1. Solar factors; well known as the main driver of weather phenomena. There's pretty good real science relating the absolute output of the Sun to climatic trends on this planet. However there hasn't been much in the way of peer-reviewed (real science) work that showed correlation between the 11/22 year cycle to weather. There's some possibility of short-term climatic change driven by the solar cycle but it's hard to discern from the larger drivers of short-term change such as CO2 levels. The longer sunspot-relevant cycles are possibly correlated to climatic trends (see Maunder Minimum) though the effects on weather haven't been clearly shown at this stage.
    Another purely solar cycle is precession, where the Earth is closer to the Sun in January, and over about 25800 years that closest point in the orbit changes throughout the year. In the time of Newgrange, the closest point in the Earth's orbit was actually around the equinox. It's a pity that we don't have much in the way of data to support seeing if that had made any real changes.
    Solar tidal effects are also something that would possibly be an effect on weather systems, but more as a combining and negating effect on the Lunar tidal effect.

    2. Lunar factors; Tidal effects should affect the atmosphere much the same as the ocean, so it stands to reason that there should be some effects due to lunar altitude. One has to take into account the changing distance to the moon, as well as the change in max altitude due to the Moon's orbital plane not coinciding with the Earth's rotational plane. E.g. the effects on the tide that can breach coastal defences when variosu factors coincide (see floods in Holland in '56) with a new/full moon at perigee, in January, with the moon at 5 degrees above the ecliptic, leading to a significantly higher tide than normal. All well known astronomical effects, with pretty exact timings. Not a lot of results in the peer-reviewed journals, though some others are having some success (c.f. MTC)
    The Saros cycle of ~18 years applies more to Eclipse predictions than tidal effects but they are linked as it's an expression of the geometry of the Lunar orbit.
    Question for Ken: You say you use about 5 cycles. Which cycle do you mean as there are quite a few Lunar-relevant cycles?


    3. Inner planet effects; In short - No impact seen by the Sun. There aren't any periodicities noted in any long term studies of the Solar "atmosphere" that coincide with any periodicities that may be due to the inner planets. There haven't been any effects seen on the Solar cycle (either the ~11 year sunspot cycle or the much longer superimposed cycle that may be present linked to the Maunder Minimum).
    Mercury's tide on the Sun has been calculated, but it doesn't show up in any measurements of the Sun's surface which have been accurate enough to show them, nor has any period yet shown up in any research done. At this point with what we know and what has been measured, it can safely be said that there are no direct planetary effects that affect the Sun in any meaningful way.
    Kenring wrote: »
    It is all basic science rooted in commonsense.
    Some of the thoughts of what would sound like common sense fall down upon further realistic scrutiny, such as the inner planet effects. With a better understanding of real science, things that have appeared as common sense may end up being no more than old wives tales as they don't have any sound science behind them.


  • #21
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    relaxed wrote: »
    You also said there may be less than a handful of wet days for any one county. (it's now day 6 and I think there has been rain in every county ever day!)
    You also said it would be dry and summery (it's been wet, fresh and autumnal so far)
    You also said we can expect some very warm days around the 7th.(no sign of that at the moment)
    You also said driest 12th-20th, now it's 14th-20th, yet you don't change forecasts once you make them, so why this time?

    So far everything you have forecasted for august seems to be completely wrong.

    I hope things do pickup with drier weather around 14th-20th, and warm again around 21st, but I just can't see it happening.
    Can I just say, Aug 7th was my wife's birthday so i remember it like it was yesterday (thats humour by the way) and i spend the afternoon sitting out in glorious sunshine with occasional high cloud it was in the high teens. Im in kinsale. Also over the last 7days i experiences just two showers and its been warm. I think this correlates to some of what KR has predicted for Aug


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  • #22
    relaxed
    Closed Accounts Posts: 572 ✭✭✭relaxed


    Kenring wrote: »
    I have been fairly specific, naming 9 July back in January for the heatwave and temps of 30C.


    Good for you ken but you also said very warm days around the 7th August, which is showing no sign of happening.

    And that's the problem i see with your predictions, had the sun been splitting the rocks this week you would be trumpeting about it and how you predicted it.

    So you have predicted numerous warm spells this summer, so far one has been right and the other one wrong that I can see.

    It's summer after all, we always get at least a couple of decent spells, bad and all as things are, so any of us could make similar predictions and claim to be right some of the time.


  • #23
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Popoutman wrote: »
    (Scrutinising the methodology only)
    Question for Ken: You say you use about 5 cycles. Which cycle do you mean as there are quite a few Lunar-relevant cycles?
    Some of the thoughts of what would sound like common sense fall down upon further realistic scrutiny, such as the inner planet effects. With a better understanding of real science, things that have appeared as common sense may end up being no more than old wives tales as they don't have any sound science behind them.
    Lunar cycles to consider: 18.613yr, 19yr, 38yr, 56-57 yr, 93yr, 133yr, 186yr.
    Solar/planet cycles: 11-12yr, 23-26yr, 35-6yr, 60yr.
    Inner planets: Mercury aspects for wind, Mars for heat, Venus for gentle rain, Neptune for fog, Saturn for cloud, Jupiter for dry.
    Moon in 4th House can determine up to 80% of weather.
    Old wives' tales have some relevance, but not all. Things often pass into folklore that work, like "the full moon eats clouds" - old mariners' saying.


  • #24
    Akrasia
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,602 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Kenring wrote: »
    It's also your confirmation bias to have said what you have said. I never ask for 7 days leeway - you made that up.
    Rather, I have been fairly specific, naming 9 July back in January for the heatwave and temps of 30C. If you don't believe me google any Irish newspaper because every paper carried the story. I have also said the first third of July and the last half of August would constitute the summer.

    According to the independent, in January you predicted April 16 - April 25 to be a good time to take a holiday in ireland.
    http://www.independent.ie/weather/weather-guru-ken-ring-says-were-in-for-a-summer-scorcher-28953806.html

    It was very windy and very wet with tornado alerts during that period
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056916020&page=4


    You also predicted 12th of May to 19th of may as relatively a good period
    According to the the daily reports from Boards users, that period was cold (max temps aroung 12 degrees) wet, windy with scattered storms.
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056938774&page=4

    The third recommendation from that article is June 17th to June 25th
    Well, the first 3 weeks of June were quite pleasant in places with temperatures sometimes reaching over 20 degrees and mostly dry
    From the 21st of June a number of fronts moved in and lowered the temperatures and brought unsettled weather
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056961656&page=12

    So there are 3 specific periods where you predicted that there should be relatively nice weather in Ireland and in all 3 instances, you were wrong.


  • #25
    tomcosgrave
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 327 ✭✭tomcosgrave


    Inner planets: Mercury aspects for wind, Mars for heat, Venus for gentle rain, Neptune for fog, Saturn for cloud, Jupiter for dry.

    Ken, how do planets that are millions of miles away have an in fluence on the meterology of this planet?
    Please explain using science, because I am mystified.

    Moon in 4th House can determine up to 80% of weather.

    Can you explain more about this, again, using a scientific explanation?


  • #26
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    relaxed wrote: »
    Good for you ken but you also said very warm days around the 7th August, which is showing no sign of happening.

    And that's the problem i see with your predictions, had the sun been splitting the rocks this week you would be trumpeting about it and how you predicted it.

    So you have predicted numerous warm spells this summer, so far one has been right and the other one wrong that I can see.

    It's summer after all, we always get at least a couple of decent spells, bad and all as things are, so any of us could make similar predictions and claim to be right some of the time.
    Not everywhere gets the same weather. I deal in trends. The only "problem" with predictions is what you make them into. Predictions are only predictions, not certainties. They are some idea of what's coming. You can easily remove the problem by looking away.
    I predicted fine weather for the first half of July. We all know now that came about.
    It is easy to say after the fact, "any of us could make similar predictions", but how come I was the only one who did back in January?


  • #27
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    tomcosgrave wrote: »
    Inner planets: Mercury aspects for wind, Mars for heat, Venus for gentle rain, Neptune for fog, Saturn for cloud, Jupiter for dry.

    Ken, how do planets that are millions of miles away have an in fluence on the meterology of this planet?
    Please explain using science, because I am mystified.

    Moon in 4th House can determine up to 80% of weather.

    Can you explain more about this, again, using a scientific explanation?
    You really need to google astrometeorology, or get my free book. I honestly don't have time to spend here teaching because I have a living to make and staff to pay the wages of. I also have family to spend time with. I appreciate short questions that I can reply to with short answers.


  • #28
    Akrasia
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,602 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Kenring wrote: »
    Not everywhere gets the same weather. I deal in trends. The only "problem" with predictions is what you make them into. Predictions are only predictions, not certainties. They are some idea of what's coming. You can easily remove the problem by looking away.
    I predicted fine weather for the first half of July. We all know now that came about.
    It is easy to say after the fact, "any of us could make similar predictions", but how come I was the only one who did back in January?

    Because most people in the business of predicting weather wouldn't dare to make such a prediction 7 months in advance. They know that there is no way of predicting when a blocking system of High pressure will get settled over Ireland.

    Just because you made a prediction, doesn't mean you had any insight.

    I can predict that Clare will win the All Ireland Hurling final. If they go on to win, I can say 'I told you so'. if they get beaten I can say 'well they would have won except for *insert excuse here*'
    In reality, my 'prediction' is just a guess. In sport, the result is not determined until the day of the event. In weather, the conditions are variable minute to minute. predicting them a year in advance is witchcraft

    And you can't claim the 'hits' when the weather matches your prediction, and then make excuses for the misses. That's selection bias


  • #29
    SamAK
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,094 ✭✭✭SamAK


    Akrasia wrote: »
    In reality, my 'prediction' is just a guess.

    Hmm, as far as I know, a prediction and a guess are the same thing.


  • #30
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Akrasia wrote: »
    According to the independent, in January you predicted April 16 - April 25 to be a good time to take a holiday in ireland.
    http://www.independent.ie/weather/weather-guru-ken-ring-says-were-in-for-a-summer-scorcher-28953806.html

    It was very windy and very wet with tornado alerts during that period
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056916020&page=4


    You also predicted 12th of May to 19th of may as relatively a good period
    According to the the daily reports from Boards users, that period was cold (max temps aroung 12 degrees) wet, windy with scattered storms.
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056938774&page=4

    The third recommendation from that article is June 17th to June 25th
    Well, the first 3 weeks of June were quite pleasant in places with temperatures sometimes reaching over 20 degrees and mostly dry
    From the 21st of June a number of fronts moved in and lowered the temperatures and brought unsettled weather
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056961656&page=12

    So there are 3 specific periods where you predicted that there should be relatively nice weather in Ireland and in all 3 instances, you were wrong.
    e.g. From Met Eireann: 16 April 2013 11:40
    "Today
    Blustery westerly winds will ease through the afternoon and any showers will die out with good sunny spells over most of the country. Highest temperatures 11 to 14 degrees."
    I think whatever I say you will drag up instances when you think I was wrong, and I could go to my daily records of Met Eireann and show that you are incorrect. But what would be the point? You have it in your mind that I am wrong. I never say I am right all the time, only maybe 80-85%, which means about 10-15% inaccurate. But in your mind that 10% is 100%. Fine, just don't read my work and go in peace. It simply means I do not write for you.


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  • #31
    tomcosgrave
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 327 ✭✭tomcosgrave


    Kenring wrote: »
    You really need to google astrometeorology, or get my free book. I honestly don't have time to spend here teaching because I have a living to make and staff to pay the wages of. I also have family to spend time with. I appreciate short questions that I can reply to with short answers.

    You can't even give me a basic overview - aside from plugging your free book? You seem to spend a lot of time defending yourself on these forums when you have staff to pay and a family to spend time with. Come on Ken, you can do better than fob me off, surely? What is the theory behind the prediction of your trends? Surely there is a simple explanation you can furnish me with? So I will ask again -

    How do planets that are millions of miles away have an in fluence on the meterology of this planet, using the categories for each planet that you referred to?
    How does the Moon in the 4th house influence the weather here on Earth?


  • #32
    relaxed
    Closed Accounts Posts: 572 ✭✭✭relaxed


    Kenring wrote: »
    Not everywhere gets the same weather. I deal in trends. The only "problem" with predictions is what you make them into. Predictions are only predictions, not certainties. They are some idea of what's coming. You can easily remove the problem by looking away.
    I predicted fine weather for the first half of July. We all know now that came about.
    It is easy to say after the fact, "any of us could make similar predictions", but how come I was the only one who did back in January?

    Like I said good for you on getting July right, but you also predicted very warm weather around 7th August but there is no sign of it.

    A stopped clock is right twice a day.

    If I predict, off the top of my head, 6 dates over June, July and August 2014, around which there will be "very warm spells" my luck would be in at least a couple of times and I could be sitting here this time next year claiming How great I was to predict it.


  • #33
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Akrasia wrote: »
    a) Because most people in the business of predicting weather wouldn't dare to make such a prediction 7 months in advance. They know that there is no way of predicting when a blocking system of High pressure will get settled over Ireland.

    b)Just because you made a prediction, doesn't mean you had any insight.

    c)In weather, the conditions are variable minute to minute. predicting them a year in advance is witchcraft

    d)And you can't claim the 'hits' when the weather matches your prediction, and then make excuses for the misses. That's selection bias
    a) Most people in the weather business do not do longrange because they do not understand lunar/solar cycles.
    b)If I make a series of successful predictions it does mean I have a successful method, according to the rules of science.
    c) woo-hoo, your religious bias showing here perhaps? So all predictions a year ahead is witchcraft? How about predicting the outcome of an election?
    d)Sorry, I can claim hits when the weather matches my prediction.


  • #34
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    relaxed wrote: »
    Like I said good for you on getting July right, but you also predicted very warm weather around 7th August but there is no sign of it.

    A stopped clock is right twice a day.

    If I predict, off the top of my head, 6 dates over June, July and August 2014, around which there will be "very warm spells" my luck would be in at least a couple of times and I could be sitting here this time next year claiming How great I was to predict it.
    I have never said how great I am. I have only said I think I have a successful method for longrange 80-85% of the time.
    I did not predict anything for 7 August. I said there was potential for warmth then, as for other dates in August.


  • #35
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    SamAK wrote: »
    Hmm, as far as I know, a prediction and a guess are the same thing.
    Exactly. So how can someone's guess become someone else's problem? Lots of folk make educated guesses: accountants, stockbrokers, doctors, psychologists, economists, consultancies, lawyers, etc etc. No one seems to be taking them to task for that. Yet their products are opinion-based. Longrange weather is no different.


  • #36
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    tomcosgrave wrote: »
    You can't even give me a basic overview - aside from plugging your free book? You seem to spend a lot of time defending yourself on these forums when you have staff to pay and a family to spend time with. Come on Ken, you can do better than fob me off, surely? What is the theory behind the prediction of your trends? Surely there is a simple explanation you can furnish me with? So I will ask again -

    How do planets that are millions of miles away have an in fluence on the meterology of this planet, using the categories for each planet that you referred to?
    How does the Moon in the 4th house influence the weather here on Earth?
    I am not fobbing you off but I am not at your beck and call.
    Planets have an influence on earth not by gravitation but by electromagnetism. They all have magnetic fields, as does the sun, as do we. We all influence each other just as the members of one family affect each other.
    The moon in 4th House? The answer is too long, which is why I directed you to my free book. It is to do with the tides in the air. 4th House is called the IC position, when the air-tide is right "out"


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  • #37
    tomcosgrave
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 327 ✭✭tomcosgrave


    No Ken, you are not at my beck and call, but I find it hard to accept you'd spend all the time you spend on this forum and not give a decent scientific explanation, and claim demands on your time as a reason why.

    Come back to me when you can give an explanation based on fact with theories, experiments, control groups and statistics etc.


  • #38
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    tomcosgrave wrote: »
    No Ken, you are not at my beck and call, but I find it hard to accept you'd spend all the time you spend on this forum and not give a decent scientific explanation, and claim demands on your time as a reason why.

    Come back to me when you can give an explanation based on fact with theories, experiments, control groups and statistics etc.
    But I did not set this forum up. It is with reluctance I am even answering your queries. You sound like a petulant child who is not getting its own way.


  • #39
    tomcosgrave
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 327 ✭✭tomcosgrave


    Kenring wrote: »
    But I did not set this forum up. It is with reluctance I am even answering your queries. You sound like a petulant child who is not getting its own way.

    I am merely frustrated as I cannot understand the science behind your theories Ken, and frustrated that you won't engage with people on them. To be frank, if you focussed on the educational and less on the martyrdom, you'd be much better received. Just my 2 cent and I will leave it at that.


  • #40
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    tomcosgrave wrote: »
    I am merely frustrated as I cannot understand the science behind your theories Ken, and frustrated that you won't engage with people on them. To be frank, if you focussed on the educational and less on the martyrdom, you'd be much better received. Just my 2 cent and I will leave it at that.
    I am not shying away from engaging, and have answered all posts. This is a big subject and you want it laid out in a sentence. It has taken me 38 years.
    I have pointed your nose in the direction of resources, which is why I wrote my book, so that others would not have to self-discover the long way.
    I respectfully suggest that it is up to you to do the legwork, and not up to you to blame me for your unwillingness to do so.


  • #41
    tomcosgrave
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 327 ✭✭tomcosgrave


    I have never Ken, and this is being honest, been told by someone advocating a particular theory to bugger off and learn themselves, without first getting a basic overview of how their theory actually works.

    You can't / won't even write a couple of basic paragraphs with an overview. It is not a big ask and as someone who is obviously interested in this stuff and interested in showing people it works, I am frankly amazed you aren't more open to advocacy. It speaks volumes of your attitude to others, and quite frankly, it speaks volumes about how seriously you take your theories - not very.

    I have actually done a bit of looking around, and I have to be honest - one particular site is, shall we say, less than complimentary of yourself, your theories, you also talk about the prediction of earthquakes, you make comments on this article, but are unable to refute any of what they say. All I have found is condemnation of your theories - not once, nowhere did I find someone showing that you are correct.

    And that speaks for itself.


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  • #42
    Akrasia
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,602 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    SamAK wrote: »
    Hmm, as far as I know, a prediction and a guess are the same thing.
    A Prediction implies that there is knowledge that a set of specific circumstances will lead to a specified outcome.
    A guess implies a lack of knowledge
    An educated guess is a guess where you have very limited knowledge but can use it to eliminate some of the choices.


  • #43
    BillG
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43 ✭BillG


    Hi Ken et al,

    Ken isn't the only person who forecasts weather using the methods he does. Piers Corbyn at weatheraction also basis his forecasts on similiar methods. The methods used are tried and tested and do result in accurate trends forecasting from a long way out. If you have any doubt ask William Hill why they have ceased taking bets from Piers Corbyn.

    Unlike Piers, Ken specifically targets Ireland for which I am grateful for if I know the trend for this coming winter means many days of snow and ice (or not as the case may be) I can plan my business. I do not need to know that the morning of, say, February 10th 2014 is going to be cold and snowy but do like to know that the first half of February may not be ideal for some activities then I can plan accordingly.

    Please remember that the methods used generate trends not predictions. Ken's forecasts also explicitly say to allow 24 hours leeway and 100km distance when comparing actual weather with forecasts.

    In terms of why these methods work then I suggest you read about the weather-influencing cycles both on earth and the surrounding cosmos. Read up on how tides are influenced by the moon, of how La Nina's and El Nino's are influenced by the Pacific Decadel Oscillations and how these in turn effect weather across the world (or pick any of the dozen or so other weather oscillations) or why the ionisation of the atmosphere results in cloud formation and this ionisation is greatest during periods of low sun activity (See Henrik Svensmark and his experiments at the LHC in Cern). Svensmark also makes a good case of how the position of our solar system in our galaxy can radically effect the temperature on earth. Also read up on the Milankovitch cycles and how they correlate to Inter-glacial periods. After you have read all of these you can readily appreciate how Ken Ring and Piers Corbyn can use their methods of forecasting to great effect.

    The natural cycles both on earth and the surrounding cosmos are often forgotten in modern metreology but are well worth reading up on.


  • #44
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    tomcosgrave wrote: »
    I have never Ken, and this is being honest, been told by someone advocating a particular theory to bugger off and learn themselves, without first getting a basic overview of how their theory actually works.

    You can't / won't even write a couple of basic paragraphs with an overview. It is not a big ask and as someone who is obviously interested in this stuff and interested in showing people it works, I am frankly amazed you aren't more open to advocacy. It speaks volumes of your attitude to others, and quite frankly, it speaks volumes about how seriously you take your theories - not very.

    I have actually done a bit of looking around, and I have to be honest - one particular site is, shall we say, less than complimentary of yourself, your theories, you also talk about the prediction of earthquakes, you make comments on this article, but are unable to refute any of what they say. All I have found is condemnation of your theories - not once, nowhere did I find someone showing that you are correct.

    And that speaks for itself.
    You have probably been reading what my competitors, like silly beliefs (who sell forecasts to corporates) and the Skeptics, say. Well good luck on that one. Read any Irish newspaper that has reported me. They seem supportive. Ask any farmer. My books are being purchased by quite a few. Are they all misquided then?
    No, I am not here to teach. Why can't you accept that? I have written a book, it is free and available where I said. Why don't you read it? I have instructional articles on the theory on my w*bs*te. Why can't you go there?
    The theory is, as I have said, that the moon creates a daily tide in the atmosphere. This is measurable therefore predictable, just like any other tide.


  • #45
    tomcosgrave
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 327 ✭✭tomcosgrave


    Thanks for that Bill.

    See Ken? It's not that hard.


  • #46
    Akrasia
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,602 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Kenring wrote: »
    a) Most people in the weather business do not do longrange because they do not understand lunar/solar cycles.

    I think it's more to do with them not thinking that complex weather can be predicted using solar or lunar cycles.
    Climate on the other hand can be correlated to solar cycles and tides can be precisely predicted using lunar cycles, and meterologists do understand these relationships.
    b)If I make a series of successful predictions it does mean I have a successful method, according to the rules of science.
    Only if you follow the scientific method and if your results are rigorously analysed to determine exactly how accurate your predictions have been.
    You claim 85% accuracy, but when i compared your predictions as reported in the Independent in January, out of 4 predictions, only 1 of them came true.
    Admittedly, the reporting in the paper was vague and did not give details of what the exact weather conditions you were predicting for April, May and June, so I can not say for certain. perhaps, your official prediction was specific in what weather would affect specific areas at specified times, but based on the information available to hand, those predictions were inaccurate.
    c) woo-hoo, your religious bias showing here perhaps? So all predictions a year ahead is witchcraft? How about predicting the outcome of an election?
    I don't believe in witchcraft, and I don't believe in Astrometeorology. There is no prior plausibility that Venus could have any effect that influences 'light rain' or that Neptune can cause or eliminate fog.
    The only influence they have on the earth is gravitational, and the amount of gravitational force exerted by any of the planets on earth is negligable.
    d)Sorry, I can claim hits when the weather matches my prediction.
    Ok, I hereby predict that every day this year, the max temperature will be equal to or greater than the annual average daily max temperature for 2013

    I have just made 182 stunningly accurate predictions.
    lets just not mention the 182 times when I was wrong.


  • #47
    BillG
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43 ✭BillG


    tomcosgrave wrote: »
    I have never Ken, and this is being honest, been told by someone advocating a particular theory to bugger off and learn themselves, without first getting a basic overview of how their theory actually works..

    To be fair to Ken he has written a 270 page booklet explaining how he does it and it is readily available from his website and is free and can be found in less than 30 seconds from the home page. He has already said it is there so what, may I ask, is stopping you reading that material and why do you expect him to regurgitate it at your behest?


  • #48
    Popoutman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭Popoutman


    Kenring wrote: »
    Lunar cycles to consider: 18.613yr, 19yr, 38yr, 56-57 yr, 93yr, 133yr, 186yr.
    Solar/planet cycles: 11-12yr, 23-26yr, 35-6yr, 60yr.
    Inner planets: Mercury aspects for wind, Mars for heat, Venus for gentle rain, Neptune for fog, Saturn for cloud, Jupiter for dry.
    Moon in 4th House can determine up to 80% of weather.
    Old wives' tales have some relevance, but not all. Things often pass into folklore that work, like "the full moon eats clouds" - old mariners' saying.

    So, to correctly label them:
    18.613: lunar nodal tidal constituent
    19 years: 1x Metonic cycle - coincidence of: 19 solar years, 235 lunar phases , 254 lunar orbits (sidereal) and 255 lunar node passes.
    38 years: 2x of the Metonic cycle.
    56-57 year: 3x Metonic is 57, so why 56? This appears to be an anomolous number.
    133: 7x Metonic cycles
    93: Resonance of southern hemisphere long term high average movements.
    186: Resonance of southern hemisphere long term high average movements.

    Issues with the choice of cycles:
    Multiples of Metonic cycles missing - why would 4x 5x and 6x Metonic cycles be ignored?
    Apparently there are actually 31/62/93/186 year periodicities listed as relevant for these cycles , so why are the 31 and 62 year cycles not listed?


    I have to say as an astronomer, the concept of planet timings affecting either long term climatic trends or day to day weather on Earth is one that I have a hard time reconciling. What mechanism is present that allows this? I'm not aware of any mechanism that would work. The only ways that I can think of that planets could possibly affect Earth in any way would be
    a) tidal and far too small to have *any* measurable effect. Jupiter's tide on Earth would have a 100,000 times smaller effect than the Sun+Moon and Venus has 10,000 times smaller effect.
    b) electromagnetic variation of the solar wind (and we're too close to the sun for Mars, Jupiter or Saturn to have any effect on us, and Mercury's magnetic field is negligible and Venus' magnetic field is negligible. The solar wind variation is many many times larger than any possible inner planetary effects.

    Are there any proper statistical results to base your hypothesis that the planets affect Earth conditions and to what sigma are they confident? I'm not aware of any.


  • #49
    BillG
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43 ✭BillG


    Popoutman wrote: »
    I have to say as an astronomer, the concept of planet timings affecting either long term climatic trends or day to day weather on Earth is one that I have a hard time reconciling. What mechanism is present that allows this? I'm not aware of any mechanism that would work. The only ways that I can think of that planets could possibly affect Earth in any way would be .

    Look up Henrik Svensmark, he did it for me


  • #50
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Popoutman wrote: »
    So, to correctly label them:
    18.613: lunar nodal tidal constituent
    19 years: 1x Metonic cycle - coincidence of: 19 solar years, 235 lunar phases , 254 lunar orbits (sidereal) and 255 lunar node passes.
    38 years: 2x of the Metonic cycle.
    56-57 year: 3x Metonic is 57, so why 56? This appears to be an anomolous number.
    133: 7x Metonic cycles
    93: Resonance of southern hemisphere long term high average movements.
    186: Resonance of southern hemisphere long term high average movements.

    Issues with the choice of cycles:
    Multiples of Metonic cycles missing - why would 4x 5x and 6x Metonic cycles be ignored?
    Apparently there are actually 31/62/93/186 year periodicities listed as relevant for these cycles , so why are the 31 and 62 year cycles not listed?


    I have to say as an astronomer, the concept of planet timings affecting either long term climatic trends or day to day weather on Earth is one that I have a hard time reconciling. What mechanism is present that allows this? I'm not aware of any mechanism that would work. The only ways that I can think of that planets could possibly affect Earth in any way would be
    a) tidal and far too small to have *any* measurable effect. Jupiter's tide on Earth would have a 100,000 times smaller effect than the Sun+Moon and Venus has 10,000 times smaller effect.
    b) electromagnetic variation of the solar wind (and we're too close to the sun for Mars, Jupiter or Saturn to have any effect on us, and Mercury's magnetic field is negligible and Venus' magnetic field is negligible. The solar wind variation is many many times larger than any possible inner planetary effects.

    Are there any proper statistical results to base your hypothesis that the planets affect Earth conditions and to what sigma are they confident? I'm not aware of any.
    As an astronomer you must be aware that all bodies in space exert an influence on each other, which includes the sun on the moon, the moon on the earth, and the moon on everything on the earth which includes the air. You must also be aware that there is an atmospheric tide, because Appleby and Weeks described it back in 1939. let that be your atarting point. You may have to go to another discipline to explore the electromagnetism of the cosmos, and the effects of the planets on the sun, producing the solar disturbances. Look up the solar barycentre and that will tell you how the planets affect the solar cycle.


  • #51
    Akrasia
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,602 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Kenring wrote: »
    I am not fobbing you off but I am not at your beck and call.
    Planets have an influence on earth not by gravitation but by electromagnetism. They all have magnetic fields, as does the sun, as do we. We all influence each other just as the members of one family affect each other.
    The moon in 4th House? The answer is too long, which is why I directed you to my free book. It is to do with the tides in the air. 4th House is called the IC position, when the air-tide is right "out"

    hold on, magnetic fields do not extend indefinitely into space, they are contained around the body that generates them

    Mars and Venus don't even have a planetary magnetic field anymore.

    The boundary of the magnetic field is called the Magnetopause and there is no way that any of the other planets magnetic field can ever interact with earth in order to affect our weather.


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