Wednesday 20th June: Day 2 Royal Ascot

rossom wrote: »

14/1 looks an absolutely huge price for Elaine Burke's 5 year old as he returns to the Carlisle course where he absolutely loves it and holds a tremendous record. In his 5 previous visits to this C+D, he boasts a tremendous record of 3 victories, a short head beaten 2nd and a 1L beaten 4th so its absolutely clear that he flourishes over the mile trip at the course. He's going to have to bounce back from a few poor runs but he had a similar enough profile last year so I definitely feel he's going to bounce back to form in a massive way and I envisage a much better performance tomorrow from this gritty, gritty battler.

Last year, Miami Gator started off his 4 year old campaign on the back of a busy winter and on his first start of 2011 he put up an excellent effort at Lingfield over 1m last January when finishing a 1L beaten 3rd off a mark of 79. After attempting to make all, Miami Gator was collared in the final strides by two rivals as he ended up being beaten by only 1L. The form of that race looks very solid with the winner running well off 4lb higher marks subsequently, the 2nd Ocean Legend won off a 1lb higher mark 2 starts afterwards and the 4th Wilfred Pickles won 2 of his subsequent 3 starts. After running only ok in a couple of claimers over in France, Miami Gator ran a cracking race when finishing a 1L beaten 4th at the course last May off a mark of 78. After adopting his typical front running style, he was clear of the pursuers until about the final half furlong where 3 of his rivals swamped him at the finish and went past. It was a very solid effort, and Miami Gator would have his revenge a month later.

Towards the end of June, Miami Gator took on two of the three rivals who had beaten him the month prior off the same mark of 78 but he turned the tables with them as he landed the Class 4 event in fine style when scoring by 1.75L. In traditional front running fashion, he was joined and indeed headed by the eventual second Vito Volterra with about 2f to go but he battled back gamely to get on top of that rival to land the race impressively. The form of that race couldn't be any stronger and if reproducing this effort he could be incredibly difficult to beat. The 2nd and 3rd both won on their next starts off the same mark whilst the 3rd Take it to the Max is now 16lb higher than he was that day so its clear he beat some in form rivals impressively that day. After being raised 8lb for this win, he put in an ok effort at York before getting back on the winning track when landing a claimer at Sandown last July. Although he was worse off at the weights with the 2nd and 3rd, its hard to evaluate that form and I think its best not to look into it too much, although the handicapper did raise him to a mark of 89 after that effort.

Miami Gator's final start as a 4 year old came last September where he was pretty disappointing at Ayr. After taking the winter off, Miami Gator has had 3 starts this year including two over in France in claimers. To be honest he hasn't looked that well this year which is an obvious concern but considering he hadn't had more than a 2 month break since beginning his career in 2009 I think he will have needed these 3 runs to get him back up to peak fitness. Moreover, he's now fallen to what appears a very attractive handicap mark of 80 and he's just 2lb above his last winning mark in a race that has worked out very well over C+D and I definitely think he's well handicapped. Although Michael Metcalfe takes a handy 3lb off his back which should help offset the burden of carrying top weight, I don't really know too much about him and given that Miami Gator is a horse that needs to be scrubbed along for quite a way I would definitely have preferred regular jockey Andrew Elliot to be on. However, its only a small concern for me. With Elaine Burke in pretty decent form at present, I think the return to Carlisle is a big indicator of how Miami Gator is going at home considering he loves it here so much. His draw in stall 1 should allow him to make all as he likes to do and for a horse that has never been beaten by more than 1L at the track in 5 visit I think 14/1 vastly overstates his chances, especially given he is only 2lb above his last win at the track. I'm very confident of a very big run from Miami Gator and think he could be extremely difficult to beat tomorrow.

rossom wrote: »

I know I put Royal Ascot in the thread but don't see the reason of starting another thread for one selection

4.10 Hamilton

Miami Gator 25/1

On his last start he was a small bit disappointing but it still wasn't a bad effort as he was only beaten by 6.5L and he was slightly squeezed up at one stage. The handicapper has been rather kind in my opinion dropping him to a mark of 77 and he is now 1lb below his last winning mark in the Carlisle Bell last year. Although away from his beloved Carlisle, he has 1 win from two starts at Hamilton so he clearly goes well enough around here as well. Talented claimer Conor Harrison takes the ride today for the first time and takes a very handy 7lb off Miami Gator's back which should definitely help. Harrison has 1 win from 5 rides for Burke and with his trainer in good form I am expecting a bold front running showing today and hopefully Miami Gator can get back to winning ways in fine style today at a price that vastly overstates his chances.