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Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

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Comments

  • #1352
    Tindie
    Registered Users Posts: 1,259 ✭✭✭Tindie


    Looking at last forecast see how mild was this times year.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hS_PwT3g5uU&feature=plcp

    Think looks more up this winter for sure.

    There was Big low pressure for second week of November in 2010
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDBvIvyX38k&feature=plcp


  • #1353
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    t|nt|n wrote: »
    Ya know the winter season has started when I buy the netweather extra subscription

    Bring on the red blotches right over my house ! :D

    The site doesn't zoom in as far as Rain today, does Rain today provide a service to see snow showers?


  • #1354
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Pangea wrote: »
    The site doesn't zoom in as far as Rain today, does Rain today provide a service to see snow showers?

    I think it does but I haven't ever signed up to their premium account

    They want a paypal account which I don't have and I just can't be bothered ha :pac:


  • #1355
    Tindie
    Registered Users Posts: 1,259 ✭✭✭Tindie


    This made me feel so cold!
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSSjOcF3g_E&feature=plcp


  • #1356
    musical theatre manic
    Registered Users Posts: 4 ✭musical theatre manic


    any signs of snow elsewhere?


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  • #1357
    Tindie
    Registered Users Posts: 1,259 ✭✭✭Tindie


    musical theatre manic wrote: »
    any signs of snow elsewhere?

    Some parts of wales might get some, I wished it moved a little bit more in land, it freezing here right now in Streetly part of West Midlands


  • #1358
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Pangea wrote: »
    The site doesn't zoom in as far as Rain today, does Rain today provide a service to see snow showers?

    Yep it does , I might get the netweather extra myself this year , have a good feeling about this winter!


  • #1359
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Yep it does , I might get the netweather extra myself this year , have a good feeling about this winter!

    Its basically just a fiver a month, wouldn't even notice it !

    They do a 7 day free trial now apparently too


  • #1360
    Shamrock841
    Registered Users Posts: 110 ✭✭Shamrock841


    EICK 011700Z 0118/0218 27015KT 9999 SCT010 BKN030 TEMPO 0118/0120 27017G27KT TEMPO 0118/0203 5000 SHRAGSSN BKN009 BKN015CB BECMG 0200/0202 25010KT BECMG 0210/0212 28013KT TEMPO 0212/0218 SCT018CB BECMG 0215/0217 22008KT


    Moderate showers of rain hail and snow forecast for cork between 1800 and 0300 according to the met office :)


  • #1361
    Trotter
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭Trotter


    Seems to be quite a bit of early optimism around for a proper winter. Is it because of the midterm forecast of blocking or another reason(s)?


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  • #1362
    HellFireClub
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,912 ✭✭✭HellFireClub


    Trotter wrote: »
    Seems to be quite a bit of early optimism around for a proper winter. Is it because of the midterm forecast of blocking or another reason(s)?

    I think for the lay people on the thread, it just genuinely feels very cold for this time of year!


  • #1363
    TURRICAN
    Closed Accounts Posts: 717 ✭✭✭TURRICAN


    Surely was cold today. I was out in the yard helping the father in law put 2 shocks into the truck and boy! i had to work fast to keep the cold at bay.

    There are positive "things" happening at the moment and I'm positive about us getting a cold one this year.
    :)


  • #1364
    maw368
    Registered Users Posts: 85 ✭✭maw368


    It did indeed snow in parts of South Wales too... I didn't manage to get any pictures but can confirm the snow did stick to the ground for a few hours in Ebbw Vale


  • #1365
    jo06555
    Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭jo06555


    So when's the snow arriving?? ;)


  • #1366
    StormGazer.11
    Registered Users Posts: 85 ✭✭StormGazer.11


    Was down in Killarney today and there was some lovely white stuff capping the mountains :)


  • #1367
    my favourite rossy
    Registered Users Posts: 12 ✭my favourite rossy


    In Donegal here aout 2 inches of snow .... Built a snowball ...............


  • #1368
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Hi MT,

    I know you issued your "initial thoughts" on the upcoming winter for Ireland (mixture of mild and cold with a potentially very cold February 2013), however will you be issuing the usual more detailed forecast over the coming weeks?

    D


  • #1369
    candy19
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 310 ✭✭candy19


    my favourite rossy wrote: »
    In Donegal here aout 2 inches of snow .... Built a snowball ...............


    Pictures please, this I got to see....


  • #1370
    davidsr20
    Registered Users Posts: 769 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    Guys has mt made a winter forecast yet? Can't find anything!


  • #1371
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    davidsr20 wrote: »
    Guys has mt made a winter forecast yet? Can't find anything!

    Issued in September.
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=80889527&postcount=509


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  • #1372
    Tindie
    Registered Users Posts: 1,259 ✭✭✭Tindie


    As there been one day, they not posted anything about the weather?
    http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/355763/Here-comes-the-snow-Superstorm-to-bring-UK-arctic-blast-THIS-weekend


  • #1373
    Spindle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 500 ✭✭✭Spindle


    Tindie wrote: »
    As there been one day, they not posted anything about the weather?
    http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/355763/Here-comes-the-snow-Superstorm-to-bring-UK-arctic-blast-THIS-weekend

    Superstorm :rolleyes: I am surprised they didn't use a better headline, it really isn't dramatic enough to get over the impending doom, something like below would be much better:

    Snowvembercane© to bring the Arctic for Super Storm weekend. :rolleyes:

    How anybody uses these rags as a source of credible news is beyond me.

    Snowvembercane© a copyrighted word please contact to reproduce :D


  • #1374
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Sorry if this may have been posted elsewhere....accuweather have issued their 2012-13 winter weather forecast: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/Euro/winter-20122013-forecast/972170

    Going for below average in Ireland and UK (and western europe in general).


  • #1375
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Any one notice this in MT's forecast this morning ?

    OUTLOOK ... Windy, mild, but possibly turning sharply colder around the weekend of 10th-11th as flow becomes more northwesterly again. Some remnants of the energy of "Sandy" may be driving this frontal system. Longer range outlook is for very mild weather in second half of November


  • #1376
    musical theatre manic
    Registered Users Posts: 4 ✭musical theatre manic


    Heard rumors :confused: of snow in limerick and donegal :D (not just the post here on this forum)


  • #1377
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    patneve2 wrote: »
    Sorry if this may have been posted elsewhere....accuweather have issued their 2012-13 winter weather forecast: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/Euro/winter-20122013-forecast/972170

    Going for below average in Ireland and UK (and western europe in general).
    Accuweather.com wrote:
    Another story I think may be huge is the correlation with some of the weak El Nino or neutral years Paul Pastelok has narrowed in on. Many of these years tend to have some strong wind events that bring, unfortunately, severe winds and even some major damage to Europe. I think this could be the case this year. 2007 had a storm which caused almost 5 billion Euros of damages; another storm in 1993 caused major damage also. Some of the wind reports during these storms were close to category 3 winds, so winds of over 145 knots, will cause major damage. Look for this to happen over Ireland, the U.K. and northern France and Germany into the Netherlands.
    .


  • #1378
    leahyl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Any one notice this in MT's forecast this morning ?

    OUTLOOK ... Windy, mild, but possibly turning sharply colder around the weekend of 10th-11th as flow becomes more northwesterly again. Some remnants of the energy of "Sandy" may be driving this frontal system. Longer range outlook is for very mild weather in second half of November

    You just had to point it out didn't you?! :-P


  • #1379
    Wolfe_IRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 309 ✭✭Wolfe_IRE


    leahyl wrote: »
    You just had to point it out didn't you?! :-P
    It looks average or slightly below to me in terms of temps. Image c/o www.meteociel.fr
    226788.gif


  • #1380
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    leahyl wrote: »
    You just had to point it out didn't you?! :-P

    Don't mind that PP fella at all there leahyl, he is just trying to annoy ya !


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  • #1381
    jeltz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 186 ✭✭jeltz


    Spindle wrote: »
    Superstorm :rolleyes: I am surprised they didn't use a better headline, it really isn't dramatic enough to get over the impending doom, something like below would be much better:

    Snowvembercane© to bring the Arctic for Super Storm weekend. :rolleyes:

    How anybody uses these rags as a source of credible news is beyond me.

    Snowvembercane© a copyrighted word please contact to reproduce :D

    It is hard to believe these 'journalists' are not taking a wide range of illegal substances. :rolleyes:


  • #1382
    Spindle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 500 ✭✭✭Spindle


    patneve2 wrote: »
    Sorry if this may have been posted elsewhere....accuweather have issued their 2012-13 winter weather forecast: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/Euro/winter-20122013-forecast/972170

    Going for below average in Ireland and UK (and western europe in general).

    Accuweather.com wrote:
    Another story I think may be huge is the correlation with some of the weak El Nino or neutral years Paul Pastelok has narrowed in on. Many of these years tend to have some strong wind events that bring, unfortunately, severe winds and even some major damage to Europe. I think this could be the case this year. 2007 had a storm which caused almost 5 billion Euros of damages; another storm in 1993 caused major damage also. Some of the wind reports during these storms were close to category 3 winds, so winds of over 145 knots, will cause major damage. Look for this to happen over Ireland, the U.K. and northern France and Germany into the Netherlands.
    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    .

    My problem with these type of forecasts is that they don't include anything at all about what methods they used to arrive at this forecast. At least the postman tells you he looks at berries in bushes etc. If you agree with the methods used (I don't), then at least you can take the forecast serious.

    Just for example he mentions the Jet stream heading south and a Scandi high, how did he come to this conclusion, what are the signs/patterns for this?

    I think a lot of these type forecasts are more hopecasts. Where their start point is to come up with a central theme saying something like it will be colder than average, then the rest of the forecast will lay out the conditions for this to come true (jet stream moving south, high pressure over Scandi etc).

    They may actually have scientific methods and reasoning to how they arrived at the forecast, but I suppose since weather is big business they may choose to keep them secret?? If there is no method behind the forecast then it is just a bunch of words.


  • #1383
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Saw a picture of snow in limerick on facebook ? could this be true?looked like it was coming down pretty heavy with atleast an inch or two on the ground .


  • #1384
    musical theatre manic
    Registered Users Posts: 4 ✭musical theatre manic


    @bb1234567

    you aswell thats 3 sources who said that to me now
    :D


  • #1385
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    NMM showing more of a chance for wintry precip. later tonight in N. Leinster.. :)

    226805.png


  • #1386
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Spindle wrote: »
    My problem with these type of forecasts is that they don't include anything at all about what methods they used to arrive at this forecast. At least the postman tells you he looks at berries in bushes etc. If you agree with the methods used (I don't), then at least you can take the forecast serious.

    Just for example he mentions the Jet stream heading south and a Scandi high, how did he come to this conclusion, what are the signs/patterns for this?

    I think a lot of these type forecasts are more hopecasts. Where their start point is to come up with a central theme saying something like it will be colder than average, then the rest of the forecast will lay out the conditions for this to come true (jet stream moving south, high pressure over Scandi etc).

    They may actually have scientific methods and reasoning to how they arrived at the forecast, but I suppose since weather is big business they may choose to keep them secret?? If there is no method behind the forecast then it is just a bunch of words.

    If you check the link above that one of the lads posted you will see there reasoning , there all qualified meteorologists I think , I only took a snippet out of there report .


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  • #1387
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Casement was reporting slight frost on horizontal surfaces at 18Z. Air temp 2.0 C

    03967 11581 12304 10020 20018 39787 49901 51022 69912 72186 81801 333 10081 81820 92600=


  • #1388
    TURRICAN
    Closed Accounts Posts: 717 ✭✭✭TURRICAN


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Casement was reporting slight frost on horizontal surfaces at 18Z. Air temp 2.0 C

    03967 11581 12304 10020 20018 39787 49901 51022 69912 72186 81801 333 10081 81820 92600=


    607,333


  • #1389
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,591 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    We would like to be seeing the synoptics of the next 2-3 days in the heart of winter, but I think there could be some snow on hills especially Sunday into Monday, looks a bit too marginal for snow to stick where most people actually live but the higher parts of the country especially those above 300m could find some sticking snow, more of a melting snow a bit lower down with shifts back and forth to rain, and little chance near sea level. These 10-13 C offshore sea temperatures would require a more robust set-up but don't you wish there would be a low moving southeast across the country in late January or early February?

    Some heavy falls of snow could develop then on highest slopes, the mountains should be nice to see come Tuesday morning in clearer weather.


  • #1390
    jeltz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 186 ✭✭jeltz


    I spent years at over 300m.

    Everything can freeze up for months on end. Some years the pucking cold felt like it was never going to end. Valley dwellers haven't a clue.


  • #1391
    p.oconnor
    Registered Users Posts: 548 ✭✭✭p.oconnor


    A bit of a chance of Snow tomorrow down South and in the West? Pic from Sky News

    2eqgug0.jpg


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  • #1392
    icesnowfrost
    Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    Aldi are selling a weather station.....can anyone tell me if its good

    http://www.aldi.ie/ie/html/offers/offers_week45Sunday12.htm


  • #1393
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    icesnowfrost wrote: »
    Aldi are selling a weather station.....can anyone tell me if its good

    http://www.aldi.ie/ie/html/offers/offers_week45Sunday12.htm

    Already a thread on this :)

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056796973


  • #1394
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Look what our job has back :D ... btw , they werent there last year! :)

    40925710151302294946718.jpg


  • #1395
    Smidge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,541 ✭✭✭Smidge


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Look what our job has back :D ... btw , they werent there last year! :)

    40925710151302294946718.jpg

    Nice!
    What do you use them for?


  • #1396
    jeltz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 186 ✭✭jeltz


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Look what our job has back :D ... btw , they werent there last year! :)

    40925710151302294946718.jpg

    Great fun to drive but I am always wary of those things, they can flip over if they get the chance, with awful consequences.


  • #1397
    Spindle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 500 ✭✭✭Spindle


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Look what our job has back :D ... btw , they werent there last year! :)

    40925710151302294946718.jpg
    Smidge wrote: »
    Nice!
    What do you use them for?

    Storm chasing???

    MOOREPARK CORK(A) (Up by Fermoy) was showing up on the last met.ie report as being -1 :) The first time I have seen that this year. There is rain showing up on the radar as well around there, anybody know if there is any snow up there??


  • #1398
    delw
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Look what our job has back :D ... btw , they werent there last year! :)
    How much they selling them for Ian?
    Haven't seen them on the shelves in Clarehall yet :D


  • #1399
    odyboody
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 180 ✭✭odyboody


    Smidge wrote: »
    Nice!
    What do you use them for?

    Snow plough attached to the front is a bit of a hint


  • #1400
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    :)

    They are mainly used for gritting the car-park . They are useless at clearing any decent accumulations of snow as the weight of the snow just stops the quad altogether . ha



    Must be some more snow about this morning... first time i seen pink on radar this season! :D


    [IMG]http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php? @ 6am attachmentid=226954&stc=1&d=1351935272[/IMG]

    at 6 .30 am
    226955.png


  • #1401
    Strangegravy
    Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    Question.

    I know the weather doesn't exactly repeat itself, but are there any similar signs in the charts/models/other areas etc that were there before the cold snaps of 09/10 and 10/11? The NAO and AO are negative and the big weather influencer, the Sun, has been very quiet recently as well, as I said, all similar conditions to before previous cold snaps.

    Anyone whose been keeping an eye on all these areas notice any other similarities, or even things that are completely different?

    Would be curious on people's thoughts.


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