RDP12 Final - Leinster v Ospreys 27/05/12 - KO 4pm - RTE/TG4/S4C

Hype710 wrote: »

Surprised Kahn isn't starting. Two quality 9s in fairness.

Yep brilliant player.

ionadnapokot wrote: »

If Heaslip has to go off, can Ryan fit in at 8?
More than likely Thorn would shift to 8.

McLaughlin would go to 8 in that instance, I'm sure.

Hagz wrote: »

Just found out there that Hanno Dirksen is a Swedish Born American, who wants to play for Wales. I just always thought he was a south african.

He is, born in South Africa, played underage for USA. Not sure where Sweden comes into the equation...

Edit: The google machine tells me he actually played for USA against Munster way back in 2008, but has never been properly capped and is hoping to play for Wales when he qualifies on residency.
http://www.munsterrugby.ie/rugby/match_centre.php?section=lineups&fixid=59198

The Ospreys lift the trophy at the RDS in 2010

Were it not a 77th minute conversion hitting the top of the post and finding its way over the bar at the RDS on 23rd March, Leinster would now be looking to finish their season on a 30-game unbeaten run. As it was, that conversion from Dan Biggar consigned Leinster to their second defeat at the hands of the Ospreys this season, after a makeshift team fell to a 27-3 defeat at the Liberty Stadium way back in September. Add to that the disappointment which many of this team will still carry from the Ospreys' comprehensive victory in the 2010 final, Michael Cheika's last game in charge of Leinster, and the hosts will not be short of motivation coming into tomorrow's match.

Looking back at the starting line-ups from that game in 2010, the scale of the rebuilding task that has faced the Ospreys becomes clear; Lee Byrne, James Hook, Mike Phillips, Jerry Collins and Marty Holah have all moved on to pastures new with more internationals in Tommy Bowe, Nikki Walker and Huw Bennett missing the final through injury before they too leave the Liberty Stadium. Prop Paul James and the great Shane Williams will also be playing their last games in the black jersey and utility forward Jonathan Thomas is also absent having missed large chunks of the season through injury and illness. Added to the revolving door in the players' dressing room is the mid-season upheaval which saw the coaching team of Scott Johnson and Sean Holley replaced with former player Steve Tandy.

The Ospreys lineup, therefore, doesn't quite have the same star names that characterised the 'Galacticos' era. However, the perilous financial state of Welsh club rugby and the relative lack of success of the Ospreys in the Heineken Cup probably meant that this model was unsustainable in the long run. To maintain their competitiveness in the RaboDirect Pro12, the Ospreys have had to recruit smartly and this is exactly what they've done. Richard Fussell and Joe Bearman were bagged from local rivals the Dragons and have become key members of the team, while young players like Rhys Webb and Ashley Beck have come through the youth system. Hanno Dirksen and Kahn Fotuali'i have turned out to be very good signings and Dan Biggar is doing his utmost to shed his label as 'kicking out-half', but the jewel in the crown of the new Ospreys team is undoubtedly Justin Tipuric, yet another product of the Welsh conveyor belt of young backrowers and a genuine rival for Sam Warburton's number 7 jersey for the Welsh national side.

Justin Tipuric in action against Ireland

The stunning 45-10 semi-final victory over Munster suggests that the Ospreys team are gelling nicely and having won in Dublin, Galway and Limerick this season (and only losing by a point in Belfast), the short trip across the Irish Sea won't hold too many fears for them. The demolition of Munster showcased an exciting brand of high-tempo, offloading rugby with great interplay between backs and forwards. It will be very interesting to see if the same bravado is on show tomorrow or whether the Ospreys will look to keep it tight initially and hope to expose gaps later on. The success seen by Ulster in the early part of the Heineken Cup final from taking on Leinster with a quick passing game might encourage the Ospreys to give it a go. Not surprisingly, the Ospreys have made minimal changes to the team, only Webb taking over at 9 from Fotuali'i, which sacrifices the physical presence of the Samoan international for the quicker service of Webb.

And so, to Leinster. Of the starting XV in the 2010 final, only Shane Horgan and the entire tight five of Wright, Fogarty, van der Linde, O'Kelly and Hines will not be on the field tomorrow, so there is definitely a more settled and familiar look to this side.

The tight five named for tomorrow itself shows three more changes from that which took the field seven days ago, with Heinke van der Merwe and Sean Cronin looking to build on their dynamic, try-scoring cameos against Ulster and Devin Toner looking to cap off what has been a fine season for him. The selection of Toner over Thorn sacrifices a lot of the physical strength that the Kiwi has brought to the scrum and breakdown but gives Leinster a significant option in the lineout, an area which has not been functioning perfectly for them in recent months. Sean O'Brien's surgery at the request of IRFU means that Shane Jennings reclaims the 7 jersey while Kevin McLaughlin looks to continue his excellent run of form at blindside in the hope of extending his season with a trip to New Zealand.

The changes to the team do not weaken the starting line-up significantly but what might count against Leinster is the lessened impact from the bench; Cian Healy is rated as unlikely to even make the bench, his place going to novice Jack McGrath and while Dominic Ryan is an outstanding prospect, he's a long way off being the assured presence that Jennings provides. While we saw the value of a strong bench in Twickenham, the advantage is less clear tomorrow; while the likes of John Cooney and Ian Madigan exuded confidence off the bench last week, Joe Schmidt will be less likely to make changes if the game remains in the balance.

Behind the scrum, the continuing absence of Isaac Boss and Luke Fitzgerald meant that Joe Schmidt's options for change were somewhat limited, so the backline shows no changes from that which started against Ulster. Rob Kearney needs no further praise and the centre partnership of D'Arcy and O'Driscoll continues much as it has for the last eight years. One man who will have a point to make is Fergus McFadden; the archetypal 'utility player' has struggled to nail down a jersey this year and while his long-term future may be at centre, with excellent footwork, upper body strength and blinding pace, he has all the attributes to be an excellent winger and is another who will be looking to impress the Irish management team ahead of the summer tour.

Fergus McFadden celebrates the Heineken Cup win with Brian O'Driscoll

The challenge for Leinster lies not in their team selection or tactics, but in finding the motivation and reserves of energy to complete what has been an epic season for them. They failed to do this last year, limping to a defeat against Munster in Thomond Park a week after their triumph in Cardiff, but all the noises coming from the Leinster camp have been very clear in this regard, that the Blues are really targeting this match and that this team want to finish their season on the high note that it deserves.

Whether they can deliver on that promise will probably dictate how this game turns out. Like most games that we've seen this season, if both teams play to the best of their potential, the likely outcome is a Leinster victory, a fact reflected in the 7 point handicap being put on Leinster by Paddy Power. Given home advantage, depth of squad and the mental resolve we've seen from this Leinster side this year, it's hard to argue with those odds but the Ospreys are very well equipped to capitalise on any loss of focus or residual hangover.

This should be a cracker; the recent spell of sunshine will hopefully provide a fast ground for two teams who are not afraid to play with ball in hand and run the ball from deep. This game should provide a fitting finale to another thrilling season of rugby.

Verdict: Leinster.

Leinster: 15 Rob Kearney; 14 Fergus McFadden, 13, Brian O'Driscoll 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Isa Nacewa; 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Eoin Reddan; 1 Heinke van der Merwe, 2 Sean Cronin, 3 Mike Ross; 4 Leo Cullen (capt), 5 Devin Toner; 6 Kevin McLaughlin, 7 Shane Jennings, 8 Jamie Heaslip.
Replacements: 16 Richardt Strauss, 17 Cian Healy/Jack McGrath, 18 Nathan White, 19 Brad Thorn, 20 Dominic Ryan, 21 John Cooney, 22 Ian Madigan, 23 David Kearney.

Ospreys: 15 Richard Fussell; 14 Hanno Dirksen, 13 Andrew Bishop, 12 Ashley Beck, 11 Shane Williams; 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Rhys Webb; 1 Paul James, 2 Richard Hibbard, 3 Adam Jones: 4 Alun Wyn Jones (Capt), 5 Ian Evans; 6 Ryan Jones, 7 Justin Tipuric, 8 Joe Bearman.
Replacements: 16 Scott Baldwin, 17 Ryan Bevington, 18 Aaron Jarvis, 19 James King, 20 Tom Smith, 21 Kahn Fotuali'i, 22 Matthew Morgan, 23 Tom Isaacs

Images are taken from rabodirectpro12.com and sportsfile.com, everything else is my own work.