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Dublin West By-Election...

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  • 14-09-2011 11:34am
    #1
    HellFireClub
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,912 ✭✭✭


    Well Fianna Fail are determined to give us more of the same rubbish, putting a career county councillor forward for election.

    http://www.independent.ie/national-news/25yearold-councillor-to-defend-lenihans-dail-seat-2875753.html

    I personally believe that this is the very last thing we need, another career politician with notions of promotion in his head. Any chance someone with job creation experience could be found to go forward, as opposed to someone who has spent their entire career waffling in a council chamber???

    :mad::mad::mad:


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    #2
    donkey balls
    Registered Users Posts: 3,444 ✭✭✭donkey balls


    Ah now no need for that sure he is a school teacher and would fit in fine in Leinster house:rolleyes: FF didn't even get a vote off me during the election and this wannabe hasnt a hope of winning the seat,One question I will ask him though if FF have the balls to knock at my door is if he was elected would he stand down from his teaching position,Or would he hold on to it like many other TD as a safety net roll on the 26th.


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    #3
    HellFireClub
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,912 ✭✭✭HellFireClub


    donkey balls wrote: »
    Ah now no need for that sure he is a school teacher and would fit in fine in Leinster house:rolleyes: FF didn't even get a vote off me during the election and this wannabe hasnt a hope of winning the seat,One question I will ask him though if FF have the balls to knock at my door is if he was elected would he stand down from his teaching position,Or would he hold on to it like many other TD as a safety net roll on the 26th.

    A Teacher, Jesus it just get's worse.


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    #4
    bijapos
    Registered Users Posts: 3,003 ✭✭✭bijapos


    HellFireClub wrote: »
    Well Fianna Fail are determined to give us more of the same rubbish, putting a career county councillor forward for election.

    http://www.independent.ie/national-news/25yearold-councillor-to-defend-lenihans-dail-seat-2875753.html

    I personally believe that this is the very last thing we need, another career politician with notions of promotion in his head. Any chance someone with job creation experience could be found to go forward, as opposed to someone who has spent their entire career waffling in a council chamber???

    :mad::mad::mad:

    Seems the probable candidates for FG, Labour and Socialists are all sitting councillors as well, so no big difference in any of them.


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    #5
    HellFireClub
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,912 ✭✭✭HellFireClub


    bijapos wrote: »
    Seems the probable candidates for FG, Labour and Socialists are all sitting councillors as well, so no big difference in any of them.

    More of the same so. More career wafflers who in all reality have absolutely nothing whasoever to contribute to the national recovery that hasn't even started yet because we have a legislature that is stuffed full of teachers and career failures.


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    #6
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users Posts: 13,342 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    HellFireClub wrote: »
    Well Fianna Fail are determined to give us more of the same rubbish, putting a career county councillor forward for election.

    http://www.independent.ie/national-news/25yearold-councillor-to-defend-lenihans-dail-seat-2875753.html

    I personally believe that this is the very last thing we need, another career politician with notions of promotion in his head. Any chance someone with job creation experience could be found to go forward, as opposed to someone who has spent their entire career waffling in a council chamber???

    :mad::mad::mad:

    In fairness to FF (!!) it was either a) put forward a local candidate who has been a previous candidate in general elections b) convince one of Brian Lenihans siblings to run or c) parachute in a candidate from outside Dublin West.

    Option a) would seem the best, one can only imagine that they would get even more abuse from the people if they had gone for b) or c).

    On the grounds that they don't have a snowballs chance of winning anyway it hardly betters whether he is a teacher or an astronaut.

    There are so many far more interesting things to talk about in this by-election than the FF candidate.
    *****
    Where will Brian Lenihans 6400 votes go, on the grounds that this largely leafy Castleknock based vote won't be going to rundown Corduff based McGuiness?

    Just how much hardcore campaigning will the Joan Burton wing of Labour do for the Labour candidate, especially if its her less than friendly colleague Padraig Nulty. Will she really want the two of them defending seats in 2016.

    Is the Labour vote really in freefall?

    Can FG's Dennison become the first government candidate to win a byelection in about 20 years?

    Will SF, who've never thrown resources into an election here because of Joe Higgin's presence make a serious attempt at winning?

    Could Ruth Coppinger take it to give the SP/ULA two seats in a constituency.


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    #7
    mikemac
    Closed Accounts Posts: 19,986 ✭✭✭✭mikemac


    ArmaniJeanss wrote: »
    I
    Just how much hardcore campaigning will the Joan Burton wing of Labour do for the Labour candidate, especially if its her less than friendly colleague Padraig Nulty. Will she really want the two of them defending seats in 2016.

    Joan Burton is 62.
    I was under the impression and sure I read somewhere this is her last Dáil, no plans to run again
    Maybe I'm wrong, just was sure that was the case


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    #8
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users Posts: 13,342 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    mikemac wrote: »
    Joan Burton is 62.
    I was under the impression and sure I read somewhere this is her last Dáil, no plans to run again
    Maybe I'm wrong, just was sure that was the case

    Fair point re JB, I'm not sure she has announced anything definitely but there has to be a >66% chance she won't stand again.

    But to an extent what I've said would still apply - she has a big electoral machine and there is big antipathy between that machine and the Padraig Nulty camp (PN would be closer to the Socialist Party / ULA school of thinking on many issues).
    So just how much support he'll get from the local party is open to question I think, and the national party may be more intersted in fighting the Presidential election.

    I can see Dennison FG getting the most No 1s, but the left getting a bigger overall percentage. McGuiness FF might get 800/900 of Lenihans old vote but probably won't transfer enough to Dennison to get him over the line.

    The left should transfer well to each other as usual, it just a case of which of them is ahead of the others after the first few counts and gains those transfers.

    Very open betting heat.
    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/other-politics/irish-government/Dublin-West-By-Election-2759243.html


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    #9
    PomBear
    Registered Users Posts: 1,885 ✭✭✭PomBear


    Paul Donnelly is running for SF,would be an excellent TD


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    #10
    Hannibal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,815 ✭✭✭Hannibal


    PomBear wrote: »
    Paul Donnelly is running for SF,would be an excellent TD
    He would be and he's a very good politician within the area, but I can't see SF coming from 6.1% in the last election here getting the maybe 20 to 25% needed to win the seat


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    #11
    vellocet
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 329 ✭✭vellocet


    Dotsey wrote: »
    He would be and he's a very good politician within the area, but I can't see SF coming from 6.1% in the last election here getting the maybe 20 to 25% needed to win the seat

    But it is a bye election. The assumption is that a lot of the Higgins voters will go for SF, even if the SP run a candidate.

    As for the OP, FF could run Coco the Clown, they are dead in Dublin. Literally will finish below PBP and above the Christian Solidarity Party.

    I would be extremely surprised if the get a seat in the capital in the next 10 years.


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    #12
    The Waltzing Consumer
    Registered Users Posts: 1,949 ✭✭✭The Waltzing Consumer


    ArmaniJeanss wrote: »
    Where will Brian Lenihans 6400 votes go, on the grounds that this largely leafy Castleknock based vote won't be going to rundown Corduff based McGuiness?
    That is the key question, those votes will stay in Castleknock. they will decide who is the new TD, if Eithne Loftus runs, she may have a chance as she is from the area.
    ArmaniJeanss wrote: »
    Just how much hardcore campaigning will the Joan Burton wing of Labour do for the Labour candidate, especially if its her less than friendly colleague Padraig Nulty. Will she really want the two of them defending seats in 2016.
    God I hope not, can't stand that man, he still speaks as if his party are in opposition, what the hell will he do if he is elected? He is immature and needs a good few more years experience. I would have put Peggy Hamill up there before him.
    ArmaniJeanss wrote: »
    Can FG's Dennison become the first government candidate to win a byelection in about 20 years?
    This could be interesting, if he can get Castleknock behind him, he could take the seat for sure. But, big ask. This guy is so quiet and compared to the campaigning style of Leo, there is no campaigning for this guy.
    ArmaniJeanss wrote: »
    Will SF, who've never thrown resources into an election here because of Joe Higgin's presence make a serious attempt at winning?
    an absolute waste of a vote for these guys, councillors for SF have a history of resigning and being replaced by some unelected person. Don't deserve any seats in Dublin west.

    ArmaniJeanss wrote: »
    Could Ruth Coppinger take it to give the SP/ULA two seats in a constituency.
    Could not see this happening, most of Dublin West don't have any idea of who she is, only swords area does. If you said "the woman who is against everything, thinks money grows on trees, never smiles and fits the complete stereotype of a miserable feminist", they may have an idea.


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    #13
    InchicoreDude
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,443 ✭✭✭InchicoreDude


    Why the hatred towards his vocation as a teacher?


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    #14
    PomBear
    Registered Users Posts: 1,885 ✭✭✭PomBear


    The Waltzing Consumer wrote: »
    an absolute waste of a vote for these guys, councillors for SF have a history of resigning and being replaced by some unelected person. Don't deserve any seats in Dublin west.

    Not really, Paul Donnelly hasn't quit and is hard working, why deny him your vote?


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    #15
    Pride Fighter
    Registered Users Posts: 5,729 ✭✭✭Pride Fighter


    Dotsey wrote: »
    He would be and he's a very good politician within the area, but I can't see SF coming from 6.1% in the last election here getting the maybe 20 to 25% needed to win the seat

    Really?

    Didnt the electorate kick him out of the council in 09?

    SF dont have a hope here, its a 3 horse race between Patrick Nulty, Kieran Dennison and Ruth Coppinger.


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    #16
    donkey balls
    Registered Users Posts: 3,444 ✭✭✭donkey balls


    InchicoreDude wrote: »
    Why the hatred towards his vocation as a teacher?

    I wouldn't say hatred towards his vocation as a teacher more so pissed off with the amount of teachers passed and present in the Dail,Then you have the likes of Dempsey/hannifin/Martin etc who held on to their teaching posts while in the Dail for quiet a long time and were useless as ministers.
    Myself personally I've no problems with school teachers my ex from some time ago is one along with my mates sister(who has since left to find work on the other side of the world) My question is would the FF canidate or any other parties candidate give up there secure jobs( I'm presuming the FF candidate is full time) to run in the election without having the back up of taking up the teaching post again if they lost their seat.
    Me thinks not one person would do it.


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    #17
    The Waltzing Consumer
    Registered Users Posts: 1,949 ✭✭✭The Waltzing Consumer


    PomBear wrote: »
    Not really, Paul Donnelly hasn't quit and is hard working, why deny him your vote?

    Well he is not, sorry, he may be a nice guy, but he did not get voted in the locals, he did not get voted in the generals, he has never gotten voted for a position.

    Martin Christie was the last SF to actually get voted for by the people. Then he pretty much disappeared in a SF controversy when they suspended him, he was replaced by an unelected Felix Gallagher who also resigned to give way for the second unelected councillor, Paul Donnelly. Donnelly has shown that he cannot muster the votes. This is just SF keeping the brand alive by throwing any name. It would do more damage to run no one then to run an empty vessel.


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    #18
    PomBear
    Registered Users Posts: 1,885 ✭✭✭PomBear


    The Waltzing Consumer wrote: »
    Well he is not, sorry, he may be a nice guy, but he did not get voted in the locals, he did not get voted in the generals, he has never gotten voted for a position.

    Martin Christie was the last SF to actually get voted for by the people. Then he pretty much disappeared in a SF controversy when they suspended him, he was replaced by an unelected Felix Gallagher who also resigned to give way for the second unelected councillor, Paul Donnelly. Donnelly has shown that he cannot muster the votes. This is just SF keeping the brand alive by throwing any name. It would do more damage to run no one then to run an empty vessel.

    You wouldn't vote for someone because other people didn't vote for him in local elections?


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    #19
    COYW
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,930 ✭✭✭COYW


    Does Enda still hold his teaching post?


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    #20
    thebman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,012 ✭✭✭✭thebman


    COYW wrote: »
    Does Enda still hold his teaching post?

    This is a good and valid question though maybe not on this thread :P

    I thought the whole sure hold on to your job just in case thing was supposed to be going away anyway.

    It is ridiculously undemocratic to have one profession have such a perk for anyone leaving it to run for election.


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    #21
    The Waltzing Consumer
    Registered Users Posts: 1,949 ✭✭✭The Waltzing Consumer


    PomBear wrote: »
    You wouldn't vote for someone because other people didn't vote for him in local elections?

    I would not vote for him because, in my opinion, he is not someone I would want representing Dublin West. I have lived all over Dublin West and I have NEVER seen SF do anything whatsoever for the community. I may dislike many parties but I know what they do in the area, SF have done squat.


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    #22
    PomBear
    Registered Users Posts: 1,885 ✭✭✭PomBear


    The Waltzing Consumer wrote: »
    I would not vote for him because, in my opinion, he is not someone I would want representing Dublin West. I have lived all over Dublin West and I have NEVER seen SF do anything whatsoever for the community. I may dislike many parties but I know what they do in the area, SF have done squat.

    So you'd vote for parties creating mass unemployment and emigration, they do alot for Dublin West alright....


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    #23
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users Posts: 13,342 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    The Waltzing Consumer wrote: »
    Could not see this happening, most of Dublin West don't have any idea of who she is, only swords area does. If you said "the woman who is against everything, thinks money grows on trees, never smiles and fits the complete stereotype of a miserable feminist", they may have an idea.

    She's actually the Mulhuddart end of the constituency (she's my neighbour).
    Whilst I'd disagree with her politics, the SP is very hardworking round here - you get a fortnightly leaflet from them all year round, regardless of impending elections. Joe Higgins will be on the campaign trail with her (he is not standing again so will give it 100%) and he has a massive personal vote which she may be able to tap into.
    This is a marginally left leaning constituency imo and bear in mind thats it not a first past the post vote, its still STV. Whichever of Nulty/Donnelly/Coppinger is ahead on the first count should pick up transfers and challenge Dennison who is likely to get most first preferences but has no obvious transfers.
    The Waltzing Consumer wrote: »
    an absolute waste of a vote for these guys, councillors for SF have a history of resigning and being replaced by some unelected person. Don't deserve any seats in Dublin west.

    I'm no fan of SF either but I think their campaign will be a big pointer to future elections. With Comrade Joe (and possibly Joan Burton) not standing again and 2 leftwing seats always available in this largely working class constituency, it really is a place that they should be targetting. I'd expect to see some heavyweight SFers coming to town to support Donnelly. If they don't run a presidential candidate then they can throw all their plentiful resources here.
    Donnelly will be under pressure to show he can get the 15-20% first preferences needed to get a seat next time out.


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    #24
    The Waltzing Consumer
    Registered Users Posts: 1,949 ✭✭✭The Waltzing Consumer


    PomBear wrote: »
    So you'd vote for parties creating mass unemployment and emigration, they do alot for Dublin West alright....

    Yeah cause SF have created lots of jobs? :confused: West Dublin is very thankful for the Blanchardstown centre and the many business parks that attract many multinationals here, and it is all thanks to the policies of sf and not any other party...


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    #25
    The Waltzing Consumer
    Registered Users Posts: 1,949 ✭✭✭The Waltzing Consumer


    ArmaniJeanss wrote: »
    She's actually the Mulhuddart end of the constituency (she's my neighbour).
    Whilst I'd disagree with her politics, the SP is very high hardworking round here - you get a fortnightly leaflet from them all year round, regardless of impending elections. Joe Higgins will be on the campaign trail with her (he is not standing again so will give it 100%) and he has a massive personal vote which she may be able to tap into.
    This is a marginally left leaning constituency imo and bear in mind thats it not a first past the post vote, its still STV. Whichever of Nulty/Donnelly/Coppinger is ahead on the first count should pick up transfers and challenge Dennison who is likely to get most first preferences but has no obvious transfers.



    I'm no fan of SF either but I think their campaign will be a big pointer to future elections. With Comrade Joe (and possibly Joan Burton) not standing again and 2 leftwing seats always available in this largely working class constituency, it really is a place that they should be targetting. I'd expect to see some heavyweight SFers coming to town to support Donnelly. If they don't run a presidential candidate then they can throw all their plentiful resources here.
    Donnelly will be under pressure to show he can the 15-20% first preferences needed to get a seat next time out.

    some good points.


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    #26
    Godge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    ArmaniJeanss wrote: »
    She's actually the Mulhuddart end of the constituency (she's my neighbour).
    Whilst I'd disagree with her politics, the SP is very hardworking round here - you get a fortnightly leaflet from them all year round, regardless of impending elections. Joe Higgins will be on the campaign trail with her (he is not standing again so will give it 100%) and he has a massive personal vote which she may be able to tap into.
    This is a marginally left leaning constituency imo and bear in mind thats it not a first past the post vote, its still STV. Whichever of Nulty/Donnelly/Coppinger is ahead on the first count should pick up transfers and challenge Dennison who is likely to get most first preferences but has no obvious transfers.



    I'm no fan of SF either but I think their campaign will be a big pointer to future elections. With Comrade Joe (and possibly Joan Burton) not standing again and 2 leftwing seats always available in this largely working class constituency, it really is a place that they should be targetting. I'd expect to see some heavyweight SFers coming to town to support Donnelly. If they don't run a presidential candidate then they can throw all their plentiful resources here.
    Donnelly will be under pressure to show he can get the 15-20% first preferences needed to get a seat next time out.


    A pretty good analysis. It is especially interesting that there does not appear to be a candidate yet from the Castleknock ward.

    I would expect the first preference order to be something like:

    1. Dennison
    2. Coppinger
    3. Nulty
    4. Donnelly
    5. McGuinness
    6. O'Gorman (green)

    The questions then are:

    - Does Leo get out the Castleknock voters to vote for Dennison?
    - Will FF be further down because nobody coming out to vote for their Presidential candidate?
    - Will the FF shift to FG last time out in Dublin continue to be a factor?
    - Will Mitchell being in Dublin get out a FG vote?
    - How big will all of the above factor be in putting Dennison far enough ahead on the first count?
    - Is Nulty more transfer-friendly than Coppinger? I think he is but will it be enough to move into second place before the last count?
    - Will Nulty transfer to Coppinger and vice versa to the same extent?
    - If say Nulty's 2s are going en bloc to Coppinger but not vice versa will that mean Dennison would hold on by virtue of non-transferables if Nulty ends up in the last count and lose if Coppinger is against him in the last count?
    - Will either of the Government parties suffer an end to the honeymoon?

    an interesting bye-election.


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    #27
    HellFireClub
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,912 ✭✭✭HellFireClub


    InchicoreDude wrote: »
    Why the hatred towards his vocation as a teacher?

    I'm a firm believer in the old adage, "those that can do, those that can't, teach"... Teachers in this country are a cabal of union orientated individuals, the terms that they enjoy are just outrageous, from their holiday entitlements to the automatic pay increments that they get EVERY YEAR, for having an extra years experience in their job.

    This kind of stuff doesn't happen in the private sector. Show me a private sector position where you AUTOMATICALLY move up the pay scale every year on the basis of having an additional years experience???

    These kind of automatic and entirely notional entitlements that are associated with all public sector positions, make me believe that our whole theatre of political representation is completely infected with this notion that benefits are bestowed automatically.

    What we need in this country is a restoration of some much needed balance. Get some business people in there who know what is going on in the real economy, who have to actually earn their own wage every week as opposed to seeing it automatically land in their bank account every month.

    I firmly believe that the reason this country is in the state it's in is because of the sheer lack of balance in the governance of this state. We typically have PS workers, winding themselves into political roles, who never had to argue or fight for a pay increase in their entire political lives, making decisions on the national stage, that have been hugely damaging to this state.

    Any business person would never sign up to a pay increase unless improvements have been demonstrated previously. It is typical in a private sector role, to be promoted and then to get the pay increase that is associated with the promotion, 1-2 years later when you have demonstrated competence and ability in the role. This was the case for some of the largest multinationals in this state that I have worked for, yet I see Gardai and teachers getting salary increments up along a salary scale because they are 12 months more into the job.

    This is what has us with teachers who are on 60k a year, who just have to show up to get these salary increments.

    Anyway, back on topic, is there any sign of someone with some actual real world experience putting themselves forward for this seat?


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    #28
    Kiwi_knock
    Registered Users Posts: 7,462 ✭✭✭Kiwi_knock


    I am nearly certain David McGuinness is not a full time teacher, he certainly was not at the last election so unless he got made full time over the Summer which I very much doubt it he is still only part time. So the fact he is a teacher should not come into it.


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    #29
    Godge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    HellFireClub wrote: »
    I'm a firm believer in the old adage, "those that can do, those that can't, teach"...

    You forgot the finish the quotation:

    Those that can, do; those that can't do, teach; those that can't teach, write or post on message boards:D:D:D


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    #30
    Arciphel
    Registered Users Posts: 2,840 ✭✭✭Arciphel


    Don't bother posting anything on David McGuinness blog, he deletes everything that isn't people cheerleading him :rolleyes


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    #31
    Kiwi_knock
    Registered Users Posts: 7,462 ✭✭✭Kiwi_knock


    It does seem like McGuinness will not be getting the support of the Castleknock branch. There was definitely a concerted effort to get one of Lenihan's old friends chosen as the candidate. McGuinness would have won it much more convincingly if all 4 of the other hopefuls had put their name into the race instead of pulling out. It does not bode well for McGuinness' campaign, it would already have been a struggle to gain any of Lenihan's vote but right now it looks downright impossible without the support of the Castleknock branch. Right now he is on course to receive the same number of votes as in the General Election which would be disastrous not just for his political future but also for FF supposed political recovery.


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